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European Union leaders have ruled out British Prime Minister Theresa May’s attempt to renegotiate the terms of Britain’s exit from the bloc in March.

The British parliament Tuesday approved May’s request to the EU to re-work the Irish border provision of the current Brexit deal.

But the spokesman for European Council President Donald Tusk immediately ruled out any re-negotiation.

“The Withdrawal Agreement is and remains the best and only way to ensure an orderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union,” the spokesman said. “We continue to urge the UK government to clarify its intentions with respect to the next steps as soon as possible.”

Britain’s House of Commons rejected May’s Brexit plans two weeks ago, primarily because of the Irish border provision, known as the backstop. 

The backstop would keep Britain in a customs union with the EU in order to keep a free flow of goods between Ireland — an EU member —  and Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK.

Backstop opponents who still support the idea of Brexit say it means Britain would still be subjected to EU rules, which is the reason they want Britain to leave the EU in the first place. 

Without an agreement in place, Britain faces a “no-deal” Brexit departure.

U.S. Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats told a congressional panel in Washington Tuesday that such an outcome “would cause economic disruptions that could substantially weaken the [United Kingdom] and Europe.”

Business leaders are worried that a no-deal Brexit would lead to economic chaos.

British opposition Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn said he believes the British government would have to delay its Brexit departure for three months to allow for more negotiations.

The pact defeated two weeks ago took British and EU negotiators 18 months to reach. Since then, May has pledged to go forward with the agreement and seek some changes to earn the necessary support.

May’s Conservative Party is now supporting what it calls “alternative arrangements” to overcome the concerns about tying Britain’s policies to EU rules.

What is not certain is whether those changes would be enough to win over a majority of parliament. There also is the question of whether the European Union would agree to alter the agreement, something its leaders have repeatedly said throughout the debate in Britain they have no intention of doing.
…

Even in the densely packed Soviet-era apartment blocks at the edge of this faded Siberian industrial hub, little redheaded Masha always seemed to stand out.

“She was quite an unusual kid to some extent — physically quite tall in comparison with her peers, and she was in fact much more physically developed,” says her father, Valeriy Butin, a retired 55-year-old manufacturing engineer.

“Since childhood she had the strongly marked characteristics of a leader,” he says. “She enjoyed giving commands, organizing her peers, her brother and her sister. She has always tried to carry herself as a leader. That was just natural for her.”

Soft-spoken with a patient disposition, Valeriy is also unfailingly polite. Even upon declining initial interview requests, he would nonetheless thank us for asking and apologize for needing time to consider.

Meeting my videographer and me at the cafe beside our hotel, he seems oblivious to patrons who appear to recognize him immediately, even if they don’t dare say so.

After agreeing to the interview, he waits for us out in the car where, through the cafe window, he seems adrift in an aimless stare, his thoughts likely turning to a Virginia jail cell where his daughter, Maria Valeriyevna Butina, has been held in solitary confinement since U.S. officials brought espionage-related charges against her in July.

Despite a December plea bargain, Valeriy, just like his friends and family, still cannot square the foreign media depiction of a confessed foreign agent with his precocious daughter who, until weeks of incarceration, mailed home report cards and research papers — cherished tokens of the myriad academic accomplishments the family has scrapbooked since primary school.

“She was always gifted with a good memory and inquisitive mind, a willingness to research and really grasp something new,” he says, his vocal pitch beginning to tremble. “I have no doubt it was — it is — natural for her.”

The world that shaped Masha

Touching down on the chemically treated Tarmac at Barnaul International Airport in southwestern Siberia, the pilot stops the plane at the end of the runway and pivots the nose onto a massive five-centimeter-thick expanse of plow-scarred ice and snowpack.

Descending the airplane stairs to board a bus idling in the deep freeze of early dawn, passengers trudge through the glare of a single floodlight as four policemen in matching black Ushankas look on in silence. The only sound is an engine and the rhythmic crunching of snow under boots.

Nestled between the northern borders of Kazakhstan and Mongolia, Barnaul lies 228 kilometers due south of Novosibirsk, part of what Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn described as the “Gulag Archipelago.”  Like nearly all of its centrally planned neighboring municipalities, the city, which is the administrative seat of the Altai Krai region, immediately evokes memories of its Soviet past. Once known for manufacturing tanks, ammunition and tractors, Barnaul — also like nearly all of its neighbors — has long since seen most of those jobs disappear.

A half-hour from the airport in a flat grid of city blocks where Maria Butina spent her first 20 years, camouflage-clad hunters tote bagged rifles alongside morning commuters with briefcases. For many youth, it’s the kind of place where one aspires to nothing more than one day residing anyplace else.

“The official statistics brought me into a state of dismay,” Maria wrote of regional brain drain in a 2008 essay for a local paper. “Last year the number of people leaving the region was 9,383 more than those who came to my native Altai.”

As an 18-year-old college junior, Maria was a Rotary Club member who had recently been elected to a civic organization comprising “prominent citizens of Russia, representatives of national, regional and interregional NGOs” that aimed to be a conduit between citizens and lawmakers.

“When first elected, I wondered if it would be possible to transform the region into a place with lifelong professional prospects for my peers,” wrote Butina. “Now I’m pretty confident [that]… if someone doesn’t ‘rejuvenate’ the regional elite, programs will neither succeed nor stop the young from leaving.”

Political aspirations

Adjacent to the Krai Administration building in Barnaul’s Soviets Square, the School of Real Politics (SRP) was architecturally designed to contrast with the stodgy edifice beside it that, until just years ago, still hosted regional legislative sessions.

“Maria came to the Real Politics faculty in 2005, where she instantly showed herself as an active leader,” said Konstantin Emeshin, SRP’s founder and, as Valeriy tells it, the personal mentor who perhaps more than any other individual has shaped Maria’s worldview.

Although not affiliated Altai State University, where Maria was concurrently enrolled, Emeshin’s “faculty,” as he called it, appears to be a government subsidized private organization aligned with the pro-Kremlin United Russia Party that mentors and develops aspiring politicians. Altai State University administrators did not respond to multiple inquiries about its relationship with SRP, and Emeshin declined follow-up interview requests to learn more about the organization.

The concept behind SRP, he said, is that “‘real policy’ doesn’t come from the TV set.”

“Television channels as a rule broadcast information as well as propaganda, whereas real politics is always made by [actual] deputies, officials.”

In “real politics,” he said, students are immersed in day-to-day parliamentary life, in government life, communicating directly with officials, even at the highest levels.

After her first year with the political organization, Butina’s SRP peers elected her school coordinator,a coveted position in which the student reports on legislation and wrangles VIPs for on-site events.

Smitten by her boundless energy and networking savvy, Emeshin nominated her for the prestigious Seliger forum for young leaders. The annual lakeside gathering — once dubbed “Russia’s nationalist summer camp” and sometimes attended by President Vladimir Putin — invites participants to give presentations of their work.

Having solicited the sponsorship of local businessmen, Butina would be expected to champion a regional cause.

At the time, Emeshin said, short-barrel arms legalization was strongly supported by Altai regional Governor Alexander Bogdanovich Karlin.

For the daughter of an avid hunter, a personal history of gun ownership suddenly dovetailed with a politically practical regional cause.

The gun rights cause

In Russia, private citizens can be licensed to own long-barreled shotguns, stun guns and gas pistols, but handguns and assault rifles are banned for the broader public.

Like a handful of provincial Russian politicians, Karlin had long framed pistol ownership as a civilian rights issue, but in his economically struggling region it meant more than that: Altai Krai is also home to one the few small-arms bullet manufacturers in Russia.

At Seliger, Butina connected with politically like-minded activists and expanded the pistol rights debate to the federal level, hosting roundtables throughout the country.

“It was no secret that Senator [Aleksandr] Torshin,” long an avid gun rights supporter, “was now in touch with Maria.”

“She knew everybody: [Alexei] Kudrin, [Andrey] Nechayev, she was at the top of public activities of Russia,” said Emeshin, referring to a close Putin ally and a former economic minister respectively.

Emeshin then encouraged Maria to pursue graduate work abroad.

“Having mastered real politics at the city, regional and federal level,” he told her in 2014 Facebook message, “you should certainly master the real politics at the international level.”

For personal friends of Maria, the rapid career developments came as no surprise.

“At the time, she seemed to be quite the young idealist, a person who awakes with an idea of changing the world,” said Lev Sekerzhinsky, a Barnaul-based photographer who was close to Butina before she departed for Moscow. “But unlike most people, she woke up not just with an idea but with some real energy … just a willful determination to implement all the plans to do something good.

“Every day she had to be doing something,” he recalled. “I’ve never met anyone else like her in all my life.”

Asked whether she could have turned that energy against the interests of a foreign nation, he was unconvinced.

“I’ve read trial documents saying she was doing or planning things against the United States, but I’m pretty confident she wanted to improve ties,” he said. “It’s quite a pity if she violated some laws on the way.”

Charges against her

On December 13, Butina pleaded guilty to conspiracy, engaging in unofficial diplomacy and lobbying after building relationships in American conservative circles — including the National Rifle Association — not unlike what she did on behalf of Altai officials at Seliger. She also admitted to working at the behest of her ex-employer, former Senator Torshin, to create back-channel communications between NRA contacts and Russian officials.

“She was playing a role familiar to professional intelligence officers…using her natural network of contacts to spot, meet, and assess potential targets for the Russian espionage apparatus,” writes Atlantic Monthly contributor John Sipher, a 28-year veteran of the CIA’s clandestine service and an authority on espionage at the Brookings Institution.

Describing modern Russia as “the world’s first intelligence state” and Putin’s actions as “those of a superpowered spy chief,” any Russian national living abroad — especially politically connected former State Duma aides such as Butina — can be tapped to act informally as the “overt face of covert operations.”

Ambitious young professionals who wish to maintain professional options at home, said longtime Russian affairs reporter Danila Galperovich, often have little choice but to accommodate the intelligence inquiries, which, for many, inevitably blurs boundaries between networking, lobbying and espionage.

“Can they be approached at any time? Yeah, absolutely, the same way, if we’re perfectly honest, a congressional aide in Washington can be approached by the CIA,” said Mark Galeotti, a globally renowned expert on Russian intelligence.

“But is there any evidence of her being a spy in the sense of someone who actually works for the Russian intelligence apparatus? For me, the answer is absolutely not,” said Galeotti. “I think what this all simply reflects is the way modern Russia works. That you have all kinds of different individuals and agencies who are pushing their own agendas, but also with an eye on whether their actions are likely to fit the kind of interests that we think the Kremlin has. Because, if you can pull off something that is a value to the Kremlin, then you will be rewarded.”

As Galeotti tells it, Russia’s president sets broad policy directives, “and then all these scurrying little entrepreneurs will use whatever leverage or interest they themselves have — and it may be totally different if you’re an ambassador compared to if you’re a journalist compared to if you’re whatever else” — to further those Kremlin interests.

“If they fail? Well, the Kremlin’s no worse off; it can deny anything and it hasn’t spent a penny,” he said. “But if they succeed, then sometimes the Kremlin will actually reach in and, in effect, takeover an operation, or simply reward them for a job well done.”

Calling Butina “ambitious in a perfectly normal way,” Galeotti said her long history of advocating gun rights made the NRA a logical place to network.

“She has a personal and passionate commitment to this issue of the right to bear arms, and therefore she obviously wants to have connections, she wants to have some sense of meaning,” he said. “Because of the extent to which the NRA and the Republican Party are incestuously intertwined, you can’t really network in one without the other.

For Galeotti, the best way to detect the presence of formal intelligence directives is by identifying a given suspect’s behavioral anomalies.

“Look at friendships pursued that, otherwise, just don’t seem to make sense or seem to fit a pattern,” he said. “Quite frankly, if one looks at what Butina was doing, it all seems pretty consistent with someone who’s just trying to see where she can get, see what she can do.”

Galeotti also said that former Senator Torshin, who declined multiple phone and email requests for interview, has long operated in this gray area between personal ambition and political favor.

“If you operate in Russia, you know this,” said Galeotti. “Everyone is constantly looking for what kind of blat, what kind of connections, what kind of leverage they can find. That’s just the nature of this environment.”

However, Yuri Shvets, a former KGB major who worked in the Washington office of the Soviet First Chief Directorate, the intelligence organization responsible for foreign operations, said the NRA has been a target of Soviet infiltration since at least the 1980s.

“She is certainly an ‘agent’ [of the Russian government], whether an active duty one or just an ‘agent of influence’ that I don’t know,” added Shvets, who defected to the West in the early 1990s. “But after the Anna Chapman story, I wouldn’t be surprised by anything.”

In June, American prosecutors said Butina possessed materials indicating direct communication with a Russian intelligence service, although a December Department of Justice affidavit summarizing charges against Butina cites none.

American parallels

Driving to the Butin family home, Valeriy’s gray late-model Nissan shoots down a snowy stretch of canopied coniferous byway about 32 kilometers west of Barnaul. I tell him that I can see why Solzhenitsyn chose voluntary exile in the U.S. state of Vermont, and that the surrounding pines could pass for a postcard from there.

“I’ve heard it’s lovely,” he said. “But we’ve got more bears.”

Does the lifelong hunter advocate the pistol legalization his daughter championed?

“I’m not as political as my daughter is,” he said after some hesitation. “But I think it’s important that one should at least have the right, if only for personal protection.

“Look at this guy in Kerch,” he said, referring to an October shooting at a polytechnic college in Russian-occupied Crimea that claimed 20 victims.

“This young man bought a gun absolutely legally and goes on rampage, but nobody could do anything because of gun restrictions. What if just one other person there had had a gun?

“Guns are deadly, but someone could be attacked with a frying pan or beaten to death by fists. To me legalization just means you can have an opportunity to protect yourself against these insane people, and they’re everywhere. They’re here and in America, too.”

As the road crests, we bear left down a snow-rutted unpaved access lane leading into a sprawling warren of scattered structures that betray a range of income levels. Some homes are new, some are old or restored, and a handful were abandoned mid-construction, the skeletal rebar-and-cement casualties of Russia’s chronic boom-and-bust economic cycles.

Waiting for Maria

Entering the Butin family drive, an automated steel gate slides open, revealing a low-slung structure all but buried in snow. On setting foot in the entryway, Maria’s younger sister, Marina, crosses the house to greet us and insists on taking our coats.

“You’re from Washington,” she sighs in almost unaccented English. “Such a cool city.”

Placing an arm around a sprightly older woman who emerges from the kitchen, Marina introduces her grandmother.

“This is the American?” she asks Marina, who nods.

“Welcome,” says the older woman, offering a hand and holding tight with a lengthy penetrating stare.”I’ll put on some tea.”

Arrayed on a table are family albums that chronicle the achievements of each Butin child. The photos and clippings show just how much academic engagement and school-based events were an organizing principle in the Butin household, which, until Maria left for university, had been located within a half-block of a primary school.

At only 24, Maria’s younger sister holds multiple degrees from one of Russia’s elite polytechnic universities in St. Petersburg, where she has since joined an electronics manufacturing firm.

Like both of her parents, she is an engineer. Also like both of her parents, she learned of Maria’s incarceration via news reports.

“I was in the car, going to work and I didn’t know what had happened,” says Marina, who says she spoke with her older sister at least once weekly until the arrest.

“I was confused and then heard her name and just pulled over and fell silent,” she recalls. “I thought it was fake news, and then I thought maybe after two days everything would be okay, that this was all a big misunderstanding.”

Since hearing the news on television that same morning, Valeriy says his impression of the accusations is unchanged.

“I can only imagine it must have been Maria’s legal ignorance about the details of these [lobbying] laws that her absolutely friendly activities resulted in such an accusation,” he says, insisting that his daughter was fond of the United States and wanted to see relations improved.”Maria couldn’t possibly wish any harm to the country where she was studying, that she treats with great respect.”

Maria’s mother, Irina, says Maria had often spoken taking “part in some global decisions that are being undertaken for (her) country and to be a public figure.”

“Masha did these things without any deliberate intentions,” she says. “I am confident that any illegal activity resulted from her legal ignorance, her young years, her drive, persistence, and of course some naïveté.”

Although the U.S. indictment refutes that opinion, the family remains hopeful that their daughter will be deported immediately after her mid-February hearing, and that U.S.-Russian ties can be salvaged.

“Our two countries are simply obliged to exist peacefully, at a minimum,” says Valeriy. “But even better, we can have absolutely friendly, good relations.”

Asked what he would say directly to President Donald Trump and other top U.S. officials, Valeriy appeared to have tears welling in his eyes.

“It is difficult to say what one could say to the U.S. president, as well as to the Secretary of State,” he says. “But if something will depend on them, I would ask them to release her as soon as possible.”

Asked if Russian officials have been adequately supportive, he exhales in mild exasperation. Although Russian officials have amplified the case via state-media news interviews, the family says they remain dependent upon crowdfunding to deal with more than $500,000 in legal fees.

Characteristically polite, Valeriy asks us to convey a message to Maria’s defense lawyers.

“I am tremendously grateful for their diligence and impartiality, their faith in the fact that Maria should not be punished,” he said before drawing a parallel to a positive memory from the Cold War.

“There was a situation between our countries, quite a tough one dating back to the presidency of Ronald Reagan and General Secretary Yuri Andropov,” he says. “A young American girl named Samantha Smith wrote a letter to Andropov in very human and straightforward tone that ultimately fostered a kind of détente in Cold War tensions. It seems to me there is now some similarity to that situation.”

Regardless of whether her upcoming court ruling can help mend relations, Maria’s younger sister sees the good that is resulting from her sister’s incarceration.

“I want her to stand firm and know that, despite the conditions of solitary confinement, the large distance separating us, she is actually the one keeping us all in the right mind set,” she says. “She reminds us that everything will be tackled, that everything will be okay, that truth and justice will prevail.”

“These are the basics we laid from childhood,” says Irina, calling their family bonds the “thread” to which her daughter holds tight in a Virginia jail.

Even for professor Emeshin, the weighty darkness of a naïve, high-energy extrovert stuck in solitary confinement may yet have one silver lining.

“She is unusually talented, an incredibly clever girl, you can’t deny that,” he said earlier that day. “That’s why she chose the path of public life, why she took charge of the school’s information center, joined our public chamber and quickly leaped to federal-level work.”

For better or worse, he said, she’s found herself in the high-profile international role she always sought.

“Quite a complicated one, yes, but still a real experience,” he said. “She’s now well-known and, like any decent and honest person from this country, she’ll come to occupy a worthy spot in Russia’s political sphere.”

Olga Pavlova in Moscow, Ricardo Marquina in Barnaul, Igor Tsikhanenka in Washington contributed to this report.
…

From Sweden to southern Spain, and the Netherlands to Hungary, populist forces have gained seats in recent elections and they now see a chance at power in Brussels itself.

Europe is gearing up for EU parliament elections in May, a vote where the balance of power could shift decisively.

The campaigns are getting under way amid the fevered atmosphere of street protests in France and many other EU states, alongside growing brinkmanship in the negotiations on Britain’s imminent withdrawal from the bloc.

The 751 members of the European Parliament (or MEPs) are directly elected every five years, and they form the legislative body of the bloc which has the power to pass EU laws and approve the appointment of EU commissioners.

Populist forces, backed by the power of street protests, look set to make the coming vote unlike any other in the bloc’s history, according to analyst Michael Cottakis of the London School of Economics. He is also director of the ’89 Initiative,’ which seeks to engage younger generations in European decision-making.

“It’s an opportunity to hit the piñata when the establishment presents it to you and get your policy opinions across,” Cottakis told VOA. “Generally we’ve seen that the European elections have been a sort of locus in which angry, disaffected citizens essentially voice their concerns – the height of a delayed populist political backlash against a long period of economic hardship.”

In France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen is seeking to align her National Rally party with the yellow vest protesters.

Coordinated May assault

Across Europe, populist forces are attempting a coordinated assault on the May elections. Italy’s far-right interior minister recently weighed in on the French protests, posting a video on social media in which he said he hoped “that the French can free themselves from a terrible president, and the opportunity will come on May 26.”

The minister, Matteo Salvini, is trying to form alliances with governments in Hungary and Poland. Their common foe is immigration — but there are major contradictions, says analyst Luigi Scazzieri of the Center for European Reform.

“With Italy wanting other countries to take migrants but Hungary, for example, having absolutely no intention of doing so. So the real question is, will they be able to work together to form an effective group?'”

That’s unlikely, says Michael Cottakis, citing other significant policy differences among Europe’s populist governments.

“Italy is a member of the eurozone, Poland is not. And then in terms of foreign policy, very importantly, Poland is a great believer in the NATO alliance, terrified of Russia, greatly mistrusting of Vladimir Putin; whereas Salvini has openly expressed support.”

Street fights back

Political battle lines are being drawn, colors nailed to the mast. Several hundred self-styled red scarf’ protesters staged counter-demonstrations in Paris Sunday, waving EU flags and voicing support for pro-EU President Emmanuel Macron of France.

In Hungary, the EU flag has been at the forefront of growing anti-government demonstrations. In Germany meanwhile, the Green party has overtaken the far right Alternative for Germany’ party in the polls.

Populists are fast discovering they do not have a monopoly on the street. The real test of strength will come at the ballot box on May 26, a vote that could change the balance of power in Europe.
…

The European Union has a message for Prime Minister Theresa May as she plots a path out of the Brexit impasse: Britain needs to decide what it really wants but the negotiated divorce deal will not be reopened.

With less than nine weeks until Britain is due by law to leave the European Union on March 29, there is no agreement yet in London on how and even whether to leave the world’s biggest trading bloc.

Parliament defeated May’s deal two weeks ago by a huge margin, with many Brexit-supporting rebels in her Conservative Party angry at the Irish “backstop,” an insurance policy aimed at preventing a hard border in Ireland if no other solutions can be agreed.

Ahead of Tuesday’s votes in the British parliament on a way forward, lawmakers in May’s party are pushing for her to demand the European Union drop the backstop and replace it with something else.

“It is quite a challenge to see how you can construct from a diversity of the opposition a positive majority for the deal,” EU deputy chief negotiator Sabine Weyand told a Brussels conference organized by the European Policy Center think-tank.

In a note of criticism of May’s strategy, she said there appeared to be a lack of “ownership” in Britain of the agreement struck between the two sides in November, and that there was insufficient transparency in the prime minister’s moves.

“There will be no more negotiations on the Withdrawal Agreement,” said Weyand, a German senior civil servant at the European Commission, reiterating the EU stance.

As the Brexit crisis goes down to the line, however, EU officials indicated there might be wriggle room if May came back with a clear, and viable, request for changes that she — and the EU — believe will secure a final ratification.

Wriggle room?

However, Weyand echoed her boss Michel Barnier in saying that Britain could resolve some of the problems caused by opposition to the Irish backstop by changing some of its demands on post-Brexit trade.

Referring to an amendment to May’s proposed next steps on Brexit put forward by senior Conservative lawmaker Graham Brady, who wants “alternative arrangements” to the backstop, Weyand said that the withdrawal treaty already contained that possibility.

“We are open to alternative arrangements” on the Irish border, she said. “The problem with the Brady amendment is that it does not spell out what they are.

“The backstop is not a prerequisite for the future relationship,” she said. “We are open to alternative proposals.”

A source in May’s office said the government would tell Conservative lawmakers to vote in favor of Brady’s amendment if it is selected by the speaker on Tuesday.

Britain remaining in a customs union, or even the EU single market, could help reach a final agreement, Weyand said, adding: “We need decisions on the U.K. side on the direction of travel.”

Weyand said the ratification of the EU-U.K. deal would build the trust necessary to build a new relationship, but ruled out bowing to British calls to set a time limit to the backstop beyond which the insurance policy would lapse.

“A time-limit on the backstop defeats the purpose of the backstop because it means that once the backstop expires you stand there with no solution for this border,” Weyand said.

Impasse 

Speaking to the same conference, a former British envoy to the EU, Ivan Rogers, said he expected the deadlock to persist in the coming weeks, saying it had always seemed likely that the outcome would remain in doubt until much closer to March 29.

Rogers was speaking in a personal capacity, having resigned two years ago after differences with May over the negotiation.

The question for May is whether the EU can offer enough to get a variant of her defeated deal through parliament.

May wants to use a series of votes on Tuesday to find a consensus that lawmakers in her own party could support, just two weeks since her deal suffered the biggest parliamentary defeat in modern British history.

Parliament will vote on proposals made by lawmakers including a delay to Brexit and going back to the EU to demand changes to the Northern Irish backstop.

In essence, May is forcing lawmakers to show their cards on what sort of Brexit, if any, they want. Lawmakers in her own party want her to demand a last-minute change to the withdrawal deal to remove the backstop, which they fear could end up trapping the U.K. in a permanent customs union with the EU.

 
…

When Germany signed a deal last month to help Bolivia exploit its huge lithium reserves, it hailed the venture as a deepening of economic ties with the South American country. But it also gives Germany entry into the new “Great Game,” in which big powers like China are jostling across the globe for access to the prized electric battery metal.

The signing of the deal in Berlin on Dec. 12 capped two years of intense lobbying by Germany as it sought to persuade President Evo Morales’ government that a small German family-run company was a better bet than its Chinese rivals, according to Reuters interviews with German and Bolivian officials.

While the substance of the deal has been reported, how China, Bolivia’s biggest non-institutional lender and close ideological ally, lost out to Germany has not.

China has been quietly cornering the global lithium market, making deals in Asia, Chile and Argentina as it seeks to lock in access to a strategic resource that could power the next energy revolution.

China has invested $4.2 billion in South America in the past two years, surpassing the value of similar deals by Japanese and South Korean companies in the same period. Chinese entities now control nearly half of global lithium production and 60 percent of electric battery production capacity.

German officials told Reuters they championed the bid by ACI Systems GmbH because they saw an opportunity to lower Germany’s reliance on Asian battery makers and help its carmakers catch up with Chinese and U.S. rivals in the race to make electric cars.

The German push included a series of visits by German government officials who talked up the benefits of picking a German company. Bolivian officials also toured German battery factories, Bolivia’s deputy minister of High Energy Technologies, Luis Alberto Echazu, told Reuters.

German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier wrote a letter to Morales, an environmental champion, emphasizing Germany’s commitment to environment protection.

The lobbying effort was capped by a call last April between Altmaier and Morales, Bolivian, German and ACI officials said, without offering details of what was discussed.

German diplomats in La Paz also stressed high-level German government backing for the project, potential loan guarantees and the tantalizing prospect of supply agreements with German automakers, ACI and Bolivian officials told Reuters.

ACI’s win means Germany now has a foothold in the final frontier of South America’s so-called Lithium Triangle: the Uyuni salt flat in Bolivia, one of the world’s largest untapped deposits. The triangle comprises lithium deposits in an area that includes parts of Chile, Argentina and Bolivia.

“This partnership secures lithium supplies for us and breaks the Chinese monopoly,” Wolfgang Tiefensee, economy minister of the German state of Thuringia, an automotive manufacturing hub, told Reuters during a visit to the Bolivian capital La Paz in October.

Some risks

The venture in Bolivia is not without risk for ACI.

While Uyuni boasts at least 21 million tons of lithium, Morales has made nationalizing natural resources a key policy plank. Bolivian officials assured ACI that foreign investments in the Uyuni would be guaranteed should anything go awry, CEO Wolfgang Schmutz said in an interview.

In addition, unlike Chile’s sun-drenched Atacama salt flats, snow and rain slow the evaporation process needed to extract lithium from brine in Uyuni, and the landlocked nation will have to use a port in neighboring Chile or Peru to ship the metal out.

ACI, a family-run clean tech and machinery supplier, has no experience producing lithium. The company dismisses concerns from some lithium analysts about its ability to deliver, saying its small size gives it more flexibility to bring partners from different fields into the project.

Schmutz said the company has preliminary lithium supply deals with major German carmakers, but declined to provide details, citing non-disclosure agreements.

None of Germany’s top three carmakers — BMW, VW or Daimler — confirmed any agreement with ACI when contacted by Reuters.

BMW said it was in preliminary talks with ACI but had made no decision. VW said ensuring supplies and stable prices for raw materials was important, but noted lithium production in Bolivia was particularly demanding. Daimler board member Ola Kaellenius said: “If it’s happening, we’re not part of it.”

ACI said the carmakers that it was in talks with would not be able to confirm anything publicly until final deals were made.

The “Great Game” — lithium version

The global battle for control of lithium has been likened to the “Great Game,” the term coined to describe the struggle between Russia and Britain for influence and territory in Central Asia in the 19th century.

The Bolivian project includes plans to build a lithium hydroxide plant and a factory for producing electric car batteries in Bolivia. Once completed, the factory will help to fulfill Morales’ ambition to break with Bolivia’s historic role as a mere exporter of raw materials.

ACI has said it expects the lithium hydroxide plant to have an annual production capacity of 35,000-40,000 tons by the end of 2022, similar in output to plants operated by the world’s top lithium producers. Eighty percent of that would be exported to Germany.

ACI’s willingness to build a battery plant in Bolivia helped to seal the deal, said Echazu, the deputy minister.

The Chinese did not want to build a battery plant in Bolivia because they felt it made no economic sense to ship in materials to make the batteries only to re-import the final product to China, he said.

China’s embassy in La Paz declined to comment on the Uyuni project, but said the potential for future cooperation with Bolivia on lithium was “huge.”

Bolivia’s state-owned lithium producer YLB will own 51 percent of the new joint venture. Control of the project was another key demand of the Bolivians, who have bitter memories of foreign powers meddling in the former Spanish colony to seize its natural resources.

Juan Carlos Montenegro, the head of YLB, said geopolitics was a factor for Bolivia in deciding which companies to work with.

“We don’t want a single country to set the rules, we want balance and other world powers must help create that balance,” he said. “So for Bolivia, it’s important to have not just economic partners for markets, but geopolitical strategic partners.”

He stressed, however, that Bolivia had not been predisposed against China in deciding who had made the best offer.

“China-Bolivia relations are still good. China is present in every country in the world and impossible to avoid,” he said.
…

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced on Monday plans to increase the standard minimum monthly wage by about 11 percent, the first such hike since the country’s debt crisis erupted almost a decade ago.

The country emerged in August from its third international bailout since 2010 and the government, which faces a national election this year, has promised to reverse some of the unpopular reforms Greece implemented under bailout supervision.

“I’m calling on you, after a decade of wage cuts, to make another historic step,” Tsipras said, calling on his cabinet to approve the labor ministry’s proposal for an increase to 650 euros from 586 euros currently.

Tsipras, who was elected in 2015 pledging to end austerity but later signed up to Greece’s third bailout, also proposed the abolition of a youth minimum wage for those below 25.

Ministers applauded and a smiling Tsipras responded: “From your reaction I reckon that my proposal is … approved”.

The plan must be approved by parliament in the coming days to take effect next month, as the government hopes.

Athens had told its European lenders that it would reinstate the process of increasing the minimum wage periodically after the end of the bailout.

Greece slashed the standard minimum monthly wage by 22 percent to 586 euros in 2012, when it was mired in recession.

Workers below 25 years suffered deeper wage cut as part of measures prescribed by international lenders to make the labor market more flexible and the economy more competitive.

Greece expects 2.5 percent economic growth this year. “The minimum wage increase marks the beginning of a new era for Greek workers who carried the weight of the crisis on their shoulders,” Labor Minister Effie Acthsioglou told Reuters.

“This decision proves in practice what it means to have a leftist government at the country’s wheel.”

The government’s current term ends in October and Tsipras’ Syriza party is trailing the conservative New Democracy party by up to 12 points in opinion polls.

Labor unions said on Monday the suggested increase was far from offsetting the loss that workers suffered during the crisis. Employers also said that it should be combined with tax cuts and a reduction in social security contributions.

The International Monetary Fund urged Athens last week to introduce greater flexibility into the labour market to mitigate an expected negative impact from its new policies.
…

British officials are war-gaming various strategies for coping with the disruption of Britain leaving the European Union without an exit deal, including declaring a state of emergency and martial law to avert disorder provoked by possible food shortages and energy outages.

Details emerged of Operation Yellow Hammer, the contingency planning underway for a so-called no-deal Brexit, ahead of important parliamentary votes this week that could result in Britain postponing its departure by nine months or even more.

Operation Yellow Hammer has provoked the wrath of hardline Brexiters, who say the war-gaming is excessive and the leaking of what the government is considering is just designed to scare rebel lawmakers into accepting the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement the House of Commons rejected earlier this month.

As the exit day of March 29 looms, the government and businesses are scrambling to prepare for possible chaos wrought by a no-deal exit, which some fear could severely disrupt supply chains, energy networks and basic cross-border services, from banking to travel. Downing Street admits a no-deal exit would bring disruption “but as a responsible government we are taking the appropriate steps to minimize this disruption and ensure the country is prepared.”

Some civil servants have compared the likely disruption to the impact of a war. Defense officials told Sky News Sunday the army is stockpiling food, fuel, spare parts and ammunition in readiness. “An army marches on its stomach. If supply lines break down, they struggle,” an official said.

Earlier this month, nearly 100 trucks took part in a drill to test Britain’s contingency plans for coping with likely customs and security delays in the event of a no-deal Brexit. The port of Dover normally sees 10,000 trucks pass through every day, bringing vital supplies from the continent and sending Britain’s exports to the European Union and beyond. The fear is a large part of southeast England could see unmanageable traffic lines.

Hardline Brexiters, like former foreign secretary Boris Johnson, have dismissed the no-deal Brexit warnings as hysteria. “These doom-laden predictions are so hyperbolical as to suffer from the law of diminishing returns. Brexiteers have, for months, been arguing that a no-deal exit is manageable and government warnings are overblown,” Johnson said recently.

The House of Commons is set to vote Tuesday on whether Britain should delay the March 29 exit if a withdrawal deal that will garner sufficient support from lawmakers cannot be reached with Brussels.

More than a dozen ministers are warning they’ll resign if May fails to commit to avoiding a no-deal Brexit, although they’re prepared to give her two weeks to try to conclude a new withdrawal deal first.

In the event she can’t, parliament would have to pass new legislation to delay an exit. But delaying Britain’s departure would also require unanimous agreement from the 27 other EU member states, and Brussels has warned the exit could only be postponed for a handful of months.

Ironically, rebellious hardline Euro-skeptics in May’s ruling Conservative party, who were key in the heavy defeat of May’s Brexit Withdrawal Agreement earlier this month, appear to be softening their opposition to her deal; while pro-EU Conservative rebels and middle-of the-roaders appear to be moving closer together in an alliance determined now to bury it for good.

May’s proposed deal would see Britain locked in a customs union with the European Union for several years while it negotiates a vaguely defined free trade settlement.

In the temporary customs union, Britain would be unable to influence EU laws, regulations and product standards it would have to observe. The transition was reached to avoid customs checks on the border separating Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, but British lawmakers fear Britain could be trapped indefinitely in the transition.

Leading Brexiters say if May can get a sunset clause written into the agreement to allow Britain to escape the transition agreement later on, if it wished, or if the transition was time-limited, they might reverse their opposition and back the deal.

The possible change of heart is being determined by their fear that pro-EU lawmakers are gaining in parliamentary strength. But it isn’t clear Brussels or the other 27 member states will agree such a clause, they insist there can’t be substantial changes to the deal they agreed on after two years of haggling.

Pro-EU lawmakers across all parties appear emboldened and determined to negotiate a much softer agreement that would see Britain stay in a customs union with the bloc permanently.

 
…

The U.S. Treasury has lifted sanctions on three Russian companies connected to Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska, reversing a move which wreaked havoc on global aluminum markets last year.

To the Treasury and supporters of the move, it was an example of sanctions working as they should by changing a target’s behavior in nine months under suffocating restrictions on trade. Due to the sanctions, Deripaska, a tycoon who has been close to the Kremlin, agreed to reduce his shareholdings to below 50 percent.

Congressional Democrats and some Republicans, however, worry that Deripaska could retain significant influence, even as he himself stays under sanctions.

Here is a look at Deripaska, his companies, and possible consequences of the Treasury ruling.

Putin ally

With his cropped hair and scruffy beard, Deripaska was a familiar face to Russians long before he was dragged into in the U.S. furor over the 2016 election.

Amid the economic chaos that followed the Soviet Union’s collapse, the trained physicist became a major player on the Russian metals market even before his 30th birthday. Even among Russian billionaire businessman, Deripaska’s also notable for his closeness to Russian President Vladimir Putin. A leaked U.S. diplomatic cable from 2006 described him as “among the 2-3 oligarchs Putin turns to on a regular basis.”

As special counsel Robert Mueller investigates alleged collusion between President Donald Trump’s 2016 electoral campaign and Russian interests, Deripaska’s links to former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort have come under scrutiny. Manafort, who was convicted last year in the United States of tax and bank fraud, was a former business partner of Deripaska.

The Belarusian model and self-described sex coach Anastasia Vashukevich — known by her pseudonym Nastya Rybka — said last year that she had obtained details of Deripaska’s alleged role in U.S. election meddling while spending time on his yacht. Vashukevich was arrested in Thailand last February and deported this month. She is now in Russia.

Vashukevich earlier indicated she would turn over the recordings she claimed to have if the U.S. could help secure her release, but she later withdrew the offer, suggesting that she and Deripaska had reached an agreement. Deripaska won a Russian defamation suit against Vashukevich and another man last year.

Sanctions collateral damage

The U.S. decision in April 2018 to sanction Rusal — the massive aluminum producer then controlled by Deripaska — had a big impact. Shares in the company plunged over 50 percent, and supply chains around the world were disrupted.

That exposed both the power and the limits of U.S. policy toward Russia, says Tom Adshead of Moscow-based consultancy Macro-Advisory.

Previous sanctions had been written to minimize damage to other sectors of the economy, and in particular Western businesses buying Russian commodities. That changed with Deripaska.

By barring almost any commercial relationship with one of the world’s largest producers of a metal key to international supply chains, U.S. policymakers ensured this time the economic pain would be felt not only in Russia.

“There was collateral damage that wasn’t desirable,” Adshead said. Besides an immediate jump in aluminum prices, that included economic uncertainty for Rusal’s employees outside Russia in countries like Sweden and Ireland.

The Rusal experience could mean the U.S. is more cautious about sanctioning major market players in future, Adshead predicted.

After the sanctions were removed from Rusal on Monday, shares in the company rose to their highest since April, though they remained at only around two-thirds of their value prior to the sanctions.

The price of aluminum largely held steady as other companies have stepped into the void left by Rusal and increased supply, analysts say.

The main winners have been state-owned metal producers in China — just the ones the Trump administration has sought to stymie by imposing tariffs on Chinese aluminum.

Enforcing conditions

The key condition of lifting sanctions on Rusal and Deripaska’s other companies is that the companies “reduced Oleg Deripaska’s direct and indirect shareholding stake in these companies and severed his control,” the Treasury said.

Whether that will actually prove to be the case was a key bone of contention in Congress, which voted this month to try to block the administration’s efforts to remove the sanctions. In the House, 136 Republicans joined Democrats to disapprove the deal while in the Senate 11 Republicans supported the move but fell short of the 60 votes needed.

Deripaska remains a significant minority shareholder — his En+ group says he holds “no more than 44.95 percent” — and other shares are held by smaller shareholders and independent trustees under an agreement with the Treasury.

There’s no other shareholder of the same size and a number of the other shareholders would probably agree with him on many strategic issues,” Adshead said. “Therefore it will almost certainly be run in the way he wants it to be run, but the point is that he no longer has as much freedom or control as he wanted.”

 
…

Turkey’s foreign minister met Monday with the U.N. judicial expert investigating the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi as Ankara calls for an international inquiry.

U.N. special investigator Agnes Callamard will be in Turkey until Saturday for a series of meetings with authorities, including Istanbul’s chief prosecutor.

Saudi officials have not confirmed whether they have responded to Callamard’s request to meet the Saudi Ambassador in Turkey and to visit the kingdom as part of her investigation.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu posted a tweet following the meeting.

Khashoggi, a Washington Post columnist, was murdered in the Saudi consulate in Turkey on October 2nd.

U.S. intelligence officials believe the killing was a direct order from Saudi prince Mohammed bin Salman — a notion that Riyadh has denied. Khashoggi’s dismembered body remains unaccounted for.

Initially Saudi Arabia said he safely left the site on his own, but later admitted he was killed there in what Saudi officials called a rogue operation.

Turkey said the order to kill Khashoggi came from the highest levels of the Saudi government, but Saudi officials maintain it was not ordered by the Saudi crown prince.
…

U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration on Sunday lifted sanctions on aluminum giant Rusal and other Russian firms linked to oligarch Oleg Deripaska, despite a Democratic-led push in the U.S. Congress to maintain the restrictions.

Earlier this month, 11 of Trump’s fellow Republicans in the U.S. Senate joined Democrats in a failed effort to keep the sanctions on Rusal, its parent, En+ Group Plc, and power firm JSC EuroSibEnergo. But that was not enough to overcome opposition from Trump and most of his fellow Republicans.

Advocates for keeping the sanctions had argued that Deripaska, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, retained too much control over the companies to lift sanctions imposed in April to punish Russia for actions including its annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea, efforts to interfere in U.S. elections and support for Syria’s government in its civil war.

Some lawmakers from both parties also said it was inappropriate to ease the sanctions while Special Counsel Robert Mueller investigates whether Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign colluded with Moscow.

But in its statement on Sunday, the U.S. Treasury Department said the three companies had reduced Deripaska’s direct and indirect shareholding stake and severed his control.

That action, it said, ensured that most directors on the En+ and Rusal boards would be independent directors, including Americans and Europeans, who had no business, professional or family ties to Deripaska or any other person designated for sanctions by the Treasury Department.

“The companies have also agreed to unprecedented transparency for Treasury into their operations by undertaking extensive, ongoing auditing, certification, and reporting requirements,” the department’s statement said.

Deripaska himself remains subject to U.S. sanctions.

Trump administration officials, and many Republicans who opposed the effort to keep the sanctions in place, said they worried about the impact on the global aluminum industry. They also said Deripaska’s decision to lower his stakes in the companies so that he no longer controlled them showed that the sanctions had worked.

Rusal is the world’s largest aluminum producer outside China. The sanctions on the company spurred demand for Chinese metal. China’s aluminum exports jumped to a record high in 2018.

Trump denies collusion, and Moscow has denied seeking to influence the U.S. election on Trump’s behalf, despite U.S. intelligence agencies’ finding that it did so.

Deripaska had ties with Paul Manafort, Trump’s former campaign manager. Manafort pleaded guilty in September 2018 to attempted witness tampering and conspiring against the United States.

 
…

At least 70,000 people braved cold and rain in Brussels to demand the Belgian government and the European Union increase their efforts to fight climate change Sunday, the Belgian capital’s fourth climate rally in two months to attract at least 10,000 participants.

The event was described as Belgium’s biggest climate march ever, with police estimating slightly bigger crowds than a similar demonstration last month. Trains from across the nation were so clogged thousands of people didn’t make the march in time.

Some 35,000 schoolchildren and students in Belgium skipped classes Thursday to take their demands for urgent action to prevent global warming to the streets.

“Young people have set a good example,” protester Henny Claassen said amid raised banners urging better renewable energy use and improved air quality. “This is for our children, for our grandchildren and to send a message to politicians.”

Even though the direct impact on Belgian politics was likely to be small since the country currently is led by a caretaker government, the demonstrations have pushed the issue of climate change up the agenda as parties prepare for national and European Union elections in May.

The march ended at the headquarters of the European Union. The 28-nation bloc has been at the vanguard of global efforts to counter climate change but still came in for the protesters’ criticism.

“Society as a whole could do a lot more because they’re saying `Yes, we’re doing a lot,’ but they’re doing not that much. They could do a lot more,” demonstrator Pieter Van Der Donckt said.

Citizen activism on climate change Sunday was not limited to Belgium.

In Paris, there was a debate inspired by a recent petition for legal action to force the government to set more ambitious goals for reducing carbon emissions that create global warming.

President Emmanuel Macron sees himself as a climate crusader, but suffered a serious setback when fuel tax increases meant to wean France off fossil fuels backfired dramatically, unleashing the yellow vest protests now in their third month.

 
…

As the world commemorates the anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz on International Holocaust Remembrance Day Sunday, death camp survivor Cipora Feivlovich marks her own personal milestone as she turns 92.

Feivlovich has spent her most recent birthdays recounting to audiences in Israel and Germany her harrowing experiences in the camp, where her parents, brother and best friends all perished.

Despite witnessing daily atrocities and fearing that the toxic food and injections she was given would make her infertile, she eventually married her husband Pinchas, a fellow orphaned survivor, and started a new family. Today she has dozens of grandchildren, great-grandchildren and great-great-grandchildren.

“When we first met after the war he asked me if I thought I could have children after everything I went through in Auschwitz. And I said ‘I don’t promise anything. What the Lord gives is what will be,'” she recalled from her home in Jerusalem. “We understood each other. He always said he was lucky to marry me since I understood him.”

But for the following decades, as he obsessively wrote and lectured about his six-year Holocaust ordeal in multiple concentration camps and the trauma of losing eight siblings and his entire extended family, she kept quiet to try and raise their three children in Israel in relative normalcy. Only in the 1990s, long after the kids had moved out, did she finally start processing her own troubled history.

Six million Jews were killed by the Nazis and their collaborators during the Holocaust, wiping out a third of world Jewry. Israel’s main Holocaust memorial day is in the spring — marking the anniversary of the Warsaw Ghetto uprising. The United Nations designated Jan. 27 as the annual international commemoration, marking the date of Auschwitz’s liberation in 1945, the day Feivlovich turned 18.

She grew up in a Transylvanian village with a large Jewish population and lived a normal life until she was 14, when she and the other Jewish students were kicked out of school.

She said her family holed up in their home for the following years, fearful of their anti-Semitic neighbors, and naively waited for the storm to pass. But then the Nazis arrived in 1944, took them away in the middle of the night and crammed all Jewish residents into the local synagogue.

“Two days we sat on the floor, you couldn’t leave for the restrooms so people relieved themselves where they are sitting,” she recalled. “On both sides of the street the non-Jews were standing and clapping their hands saying: ‘Bravo, we are getting rid of the Jews.'”‘

After a brief stay in a Hungarian ghetto, they were deported on the three-day train ride to Auschwitz, with each cattle wagon packed shoulder to shoulder.

“My grandfather died there while standing. We couldn’t even lay him down. And in that miserable state we got to our final destination,” she said. There, they were greeted with barking dogs, screams and a warning: “Young mothers, hand your babies to grandmothers or aunts and maybe you will live.”

Feivlovich and her younger sister were thrown to one side, the boys to the other. They never saw their parents again.

The girls were ordered to strip. Their hair was cut and they were hosed with freezing water and marched outside naked, shivering with cold and shame.

“The Nazis are teasing us, spitting on us and watching us there miserable,” she said.

After finally getting dresses to wear, they were approached by a tall man in a polished uniform who introduced himself as Josef Mengele, the notorious Nazi doctor. He pointed to a huge chimney spewing thick black smoke and told them anyone not essential to the Third Reich would go straight to the crematorium.

“I’m holding my sister’s hand, and we are shaking and crying and I ask: ‘Is this possible?'”  she remembered.

Starved and exhausted, she and hundreds of other Jewish prisoners were presented with a large liquid-filled barrel.

“The moment we took that first sip in our mouth, everyone started screaming insanely. It was like a million pins in your throat. You couldn’t swallow the soup,” she remembered. “But we learned to drink that poisoned soup since there was nothing else to eat.”

She said they were told it was laced with toxin to help kill off the Jewish race and prevent it from reproducing. Feivlovich said she believed it since she stopped menstruating for a long time after.

Those already pregnant faced an even worse fate. In one case, a pregnant relative named Sarah was not allowed to go to the infirmary and forced to give birth on the floor. Usually, the Nazis took Jewish newborns away, never to be seen again. But in this case, they ordered the mother to drown her own baby in a pail of water.

By the time Auschwitz was liberated, she had already been transported to forced labor in a German armament factory. Even there she wasn’t safe. The camp commander ordered her to receive a mysterious injection for talking back and refusing to make the Christian sign of the cross on herself.

She awoke after two days. By then, the war was winding down. The Nazis disappeared and soon an American tank broke through. Yiddish-speaking soldiers comforted the emaciated inmates.

Some 150,000 elderly survivors remain in Israel today, with a similar number worldwide.

Feivlovich said in recent years her birthday has become “obligating,” particularly since her husband passed away in 2007.

“My husband demanded of me: Don’t stop talking about the Holocaust, because if we don’t speak about it there will be enough Holocaust deniers after us,” she said. “It is true that 74 years have passed but we are still living and we are here.”

 
…

The World Economic Forum summit in Davos, Switzerland, that wrapped up Friday, had some notable absentees, including U.S. President Donald Trump.

With a backlash against a perceived ruling elite gaining ground in many countries, analysts say some leaders steered clear of a gathering often seen as an inaccessible club for the world’s super-rich. Others argue it is vital they get together to discuss urgent issues like climate change and world trade.

On the surface, though, it was business as usual: On a sealed off, snowbound mountaintop, world leaders rubbed shoulders with global executives, lobbyists and pressure groups. It remains a vital gathering of global decision-makers, said Leslie Vinjamuri, head of the U.S. and the Americas Program at policy group Chatham House.

“They’re there to do business, they’re there to engage in an exchange of ideas. And so I think it’s still tremendously important.”

President Trump stayed away because of the partial U.S. government shutdown, which ended Friday. China’s President Xi Jinping wasn’t there, neither was Britain’s Theresa May, nor France’s President Emmanuel Macron.

“They’re tremendously preoccupied with the troubles they face at home, which isn’t a good sign for globalism. The criticism and the critique that surrounds Davos is extraordinary. People say, ‘You know, it’s where all those people go to have dinner with each other, it has nothing to do with the rest of us.’ And, of course, it’s about a lot more than that, but the optics are tremendously negative at this point in time,” Vinjamuri said.

Behind the heavily guarded security perimeter, delegates were well aware of a growing global backlash beyond.

David Gergen of the Harvard Kennedy School echoed the concerns of many at Davos during a debate at the summit.

“It’s worth remembering we’ve just had the longest bull run in our stock market in history. We’ve had good economic times. Incomes have gone up in a number of countries and yet the discontent is deep and it’s threatening our democracies. And there’s something that’s not working here that we need to figure out,” Gergen told an audience Wednesday.

The absence of many big players means others have stolen the limelight. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali has been widely praised for making peace with Eritrea. Speaking at the forum, he said African countries must deepen their ties.

“We believe integration must be viewed not just as an economic project but also as crucial to securing peace and reconciliation in the Horn of Africa,” Ali said.

Other issues also rose up the Davos agenda, notably climate change. New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern urged action.

“This is about being on the right side of history. Do you want to be a leader that you look back in time and say that you were on the wrong side of the argument when the world was crying out for a solution? And it’s as simple as that I think,” Ardern said.

The Davos 2019 will likely be remembered, however, for the lack of global leadership, according to Vinjamuri of Chatham House.

“That space has been vacated and nobody necessarily even wants to take things forward at the level of providing a vision,” Vinjamuri said.

The lack of such a vision at a time of profound global change sent a chill far beyond the confines of this winter resort.
…

A majority of Germans favor setting maximum speed limits for Germany’s famously fast Autobahns to help battle climate change, according to a poll published Saturday.

Fifty-two percent of those polled wanted vehicle speeds limited to between 120 kph and 140 kph (75 mph and 87 mph), the poll conducted by the Emnid institute and published by Bild am Sonntag newspaper showed. Forty-six percent opposed such limits.

A government-appointed committee studying the future of transport is looking at ending the “no limits” sections on motorways as part of a broader proposal to help Germany meet European Union emissions targets.

Transport minister disagrees

Not everyone is on board with the plans.

Transport Minister Andreas Scheuer, a conservative from Bavaria, the home state of carmakers Daimler and Audi, a unit of Volkswagen, said he opposed setting speed limits on Germany’s decades-old motorway network.

“The principle of freedom has proven itself. Whoever wants to drive 120 can drive 120, and those who want to go faster can do that too. Why this constant micromanagement?” he told the newspaper.

Scheuer said German highways were the safest in the world, and that imposing a speed limit would cut the country’s overall carbon emissions by less than 0.5 percent.

He said 7,640 km (4,747 miles) of German highways, about 30 percent of the total, have speed limits, and that he plans to meet with the committee to discuss its proposals, which are to be finalized by the end of March.

“The goal is to think about the work they’re doing and to generate results, instead of revisiting old, rejected and unrealistic demands like speed limits,” he said.

EU fines possible

Germany could be hit with heavy EU fines if it fails to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and poisonous nitrogen oxides. Transport emissions, which have not fallen since 1990, are a particular target for reductions.

The government is torn between the need to protect Germany’s crucial car industry, buffeted by a series of costly emissions cheating scandals in recent years, and the need to cut greenhouse gases to meet EU and domestic climate goals.

Imposing a motorway speed limit of 130 kph, fuel tax hikes, and quotas for electric and hybrid car sales, along with ending tax breaks for diesel cars, could generate half the cuts in greenhouse gas emissions that are needed, the committee said in a paper reported by Reuters this month.

The committee’s findings are to be incorporated into a climate change law the government wants to enact this year. 
…

A European Parliament delegation on Saturday urged Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega to release political prisoners, permit the return of banned human rights groups and restart dialogue with the opposition to end a 

months-long political crisis. 

The delegation led by European Member of Parliament (MEP) Ramon Jauregui, a Socialist from Spain, told a news conference it would ask the European Parliament to issue a new resolution on the crisis. 

For months, Nicaragua has been convulsed by some of its worst political tension since a civil war in the 1980s. An initial standoff between protesters and the government in April over planned welfare cuts quickly descended into deadly clashes. 

By the time the Ortega administration had clamped down on the protesters, more than 300 people had been killed and over 500 incarcerated, according to the Nicaraguan Center for Human Rights, a group the government has blacklisted. 

Ortega sees coup attempt

Rights groups say four radio stations and one TV station have closed, and dozens of journalists have been beaten. The Ortega government says there is freedom of expression and has accused the opposition of seeking to mount a coup to oust him. 

“We don’t believe the government’s story of a coup d’etat,” Javier Nart, a Spanish Liberal MEP who as a journalist covered the Nicaraguan revolution that led to the 1979 ouster of dictator Anastasio Somoza by Ortega’s Sandinistas, said at the news conference.

“The repression of protests was excessive. The population is demanding more freedom and democracy. Nicaragua is going through a major crisis of democracy and the rule of law,” he added. 

The Nicaraguan government did not respond to a request from Reuters on the allegations made by the delegation. 

The European Parliament members said the Ortega government allowed them to hold meetings with all sectors of society, including political prisoners. But they noted that several opposition leaders suffered persecution after they had taken part in the meetings. 
…

French President Emmanuel Macron leaves a France roiled by ongoing yellow vest protests for another tumultuous region — the Middle East — and talks with his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah el-Sissi on regional politics and weapons sales, shadowed by the looming U.S. troop pullout from Syria.

Macron’s three-day Egypt visit, his first official trip there since taking office in 2017, underscores that country’s role as vital ally in the fight against terror and hub of stability in a restive region.

Crucially, too, Cairo is a big-spending client for French weapons manufacturers, buying warships and fighter planes, with more potential sales in the pipeline.

​Human rights pressure

But the French president is facing heavy pressure to speak out against allegations of widespread human rights violations in Egypt, including those reportedly using equipment purchased from France. Adding to the pressure is a letter written to Macron by the family of a French teacher killed in police custody in 2013, calling for the “truth” behind his death.

“I imagine that President Macron is going to attempt to walk a fine line,” between raising rights concerns and prioritizing regional stability and security, said Dana Stroul, senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Macron’s first task on his arrival Sunday is less controversial: visiting the temples of Abu Simbel in Upper Egypt with his wife, Brigitte. Talks later with Sisi are expected to range from reinforcing economic cooperation, to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, to Libya and Syria.

​Place on world stage

Since taking office in 2017, the 41-year-old Macron has pushed for greater French clout on the world stage. He has hosted summits on climate change, peace, the Sahel and Libya. He criticized the Trump administration’s decision to pull out of Syria, saying “an ally must be dependable,” and that France would remain militarily involved in the region.

But Paris is no substitute for Washington, experts note, and French troops are already stretched in the Sahel. Still, Stroul believes France can partially help fill the U.S. withdrawal gap in other ways.

“What the French and the Europeans can do is play a much more robust diplomatic role in insisting the U.N. process be used for a political transition in Syria, and more robustly using sanctions and the potential to contribute to reconstruction as a leverage,” Stroul said.

Those measures, she added, will help ensure “the U.S. withdrawal does not just leave a vacuum for Russia, Iran and other adversaries to fill.”

​Weapons deals

Potential weapons deals are also expected to headline Macron’s Egypt talks. One of the world’s top arms exporters, France has supplied Egypt with warships and cruise missiles over the years, and Cairo was the first client to buy French Rafale fighter jets, says Paris-based defense expert Pierre Tran.

“Egypt is a very important arms client for France,” Tran said. “It effectively bailed out France by buying two Mistral helicopter ships that France had to buy back from Russia” because of a canceled deal.

France’s La Tribune newspaper speculated Egypt would agree to buy dozen more Rafale fighter jets during Macron’s visit, but the French presidential palace has reportedly said there will be no announcements during this visit. Discussions over the Egyptian purchase of two more French corvette warships, on top of four already bought, are also at “an advanced stage,” France’s Le Monde newspaper reported.

Activists detained, tortured

More certain is pressure at home for the president to speak out about rights abuses, including those tangling French weapons sales. Human rights advocates blame Egypt for detaining and torturing scores of activists over the years since the 2013 coup, among other repressive measures.

An October report by rights group Amnesty International claims French military and security equipment was used by Egyptian security forces in “brutal repression.”

And a recent report by nongovernmental group Front Line Defenders described worker abuse at an Alexandria shipyard building corvettes in partnership with the French company Naval Group, a practice that reportedly flouts France’s laws requiring French firms to establish mechanisms to prevent right abuses.

“France has been nurturing the dictatorship by equipping it with weapons and surveillance equipment, which has allowed the regime to go after the population and human rights activists,” said Antoine Madelin, international advocacy director at the Paris-based International Federation of Human Rights, or FIDH.

During talks with Sissi in Paris in 2017, Macon gave the Egyptian president a list of Egyptian prisoners of whom he demanded the release, and the government says rights remain a priority for the French president.

“We engage in open and regular dialogue with Egypt on the issue of human rights,” a French foreign ministry spokeswoman told reporters ahead of Macron’s trip, saying such talks would continue including on individual rights cases.

But rights groups say Macron’s government has not done enough.

“The French government is facing a moral failure for not putting human rights in front of its economic interests,” Madelin of FIDH said.

Adding to the pressure is a recent letter to Macron by the family of slain French teacher Eric Lang, who had been living in Cairo for 20 years. In 2013, he was allegedly beaten to death while being detained in an Egyptian prison. Six Egyptians were jailed for his killing, but the family has blamed Egyptian police.

“We don’t understand why our country abandoned a French citizen and didn’t put all its political weight to shed light on his death,” wrote Lang’s sister and mother.

Still Egypt’s role as a key stabilizer and regional, if waning powerhouse, is key for France and other western countries. Both countries are concerned by the turmoil in Libya, migration, and other sources of regional instability, including terrorism.

On Libya, French efforts to increase its influence in the North African country’s politics has led to a power rivalry with Italy that some analysts believe undermines U.N. peace efforts. Both European countries hosted summits last year on Libya’s future. December 2018 elections in Libya, agreed to during the French summit, have been postponed amid ongoing fighting by rival militias, among other roadblocks.
…

Five people were killed Friday when a helicopter and a small tourist airplane collided near the border between France and Italy.  

Italy’s mountain rescue service said rescue workers found two people injured at the crash site and evacuated them. 

Officials said the helicopter was carrying skiers to a glacier in the northwestern Italian region of Val d’Aosta when it collided with the tourist airplane about 3,000 meters (9,800 feet) over the Rutor glacier.  

It was not immediately clear how the crash happened. The identities and nationalities of the victims had not yet been released.

Italy’s Val d’Aosta region is popular with skiers. A website for the region says skiers frequently access the area by helicopter during winter.
…

Russia will help Cuba repair state-run airline Cubana’s mostly grounded fleet, likely by year’s end, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov was quoted as saying by Cuban news agency Prensa Latina on Friday.

Cubana had to cancel most domestic flights last year due to a lack of flightworthy planes and lease aircraft from other companies. The carrier uses mainly Russian and Ukrainian-made Ilyushins, Tupolevs and Antonovs partly because U.S. sanctions prevent it from buying planes with a certain share of U.S. components. Cuba’s cash crunch restricts it from paying for expensive repairs and spare parts.

After a high-level Russian-Cuban intergovernmental commission meeting in Moscow, Borisov said both sides had checked the repairs needed and had written contracts, without giving details on costs.

“Everything has passed to the practical stage and I consider that the Cuban fleet will be re-established in 2019,” he said after meeting with Cuban Vice President Ricardo Cabrisas.

“We agreed in the future to work on creating a services center in Cuba dedicated to the aviation fleet in order to avoid a repetition of a negative situation.”

One of the aircraft Cubana leased, a 39-year-old Boeing 737, crashed in May killing all but one of the 113 onboard. An investigation is underway.

Plans for Russia to upgrade Cuba’s rail network are also advancing, Borisov was cited as saying.

In 2017, state-owned monopoly Russian Railways (RZD) said it was negotiating to upgrade more than 1,000 km (621.37 miles) of Cuban railroads and install a high-speed link between Havana and the beach resort of Varadero, in what would be Cuba’s biggest infrastructure project in decades.

An RZD executive told Reuters in November 2017 the deal would be worth nearly 2 billion euros and signed by the end of the year. Since then, however, the deal’s completion has not been announced.

“We agreed to divide it into stages and optimize the necessary credits in order to carry out this project,” Borisov was cited as saying. “I expect it to be put into practise in a near future.”

 
…

The European Commission has added Saudi Arabia to an EU draft list of countries that pose a threat to the bloc because of lax controls against terrorism financing and money laundering, two sources told Reuters on Friday.

The move comes amid heightened international pressure on Saudi Arabia after the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the kingdom’s Istanbul consulate on October 2.

The EU’s list currently consists of 16 countries, including Iran, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen and North Korea, and is mostly based on criteria used by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), a global body composed by wealthy nations meant to combat money laundering and terrorism financing.

But the list has been updated this week, using new criteria developed by the EU Commission since 2017. Saudi Arabia is one of the countries added to the updated list which is still confidential, one EU source and one Saudi source told Reuters.

Saudi authorities did not immediately respond to request for comment.

The move is a setback for Riyadh at a time when it is striving to bolster its international reputation in order to encourage foreign investors to participate in a huge transformation plan and improve financial ties for its banks.

Khashoggi, a columnist for the Washington Post and a critic of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, was killed and dismembered by Saudi agents at its Istanbul consulate on Oct 2, provoking widespread revulsion and damaging the kingdom’s image.

Apart from reputational damages, the inclusion in the list complicates financial relations with the EU. The bloc’s banks will have to carry out additional checks on payments involving entities from listed jurisdictions.

The provisional decision needs to be endorsed by the 28 EU states before being formally adopted next week. Company ownership

A second EU official said other countries are likely to be added to the final list but declined to elaborate as the information is still confidential and subject to changes.

An EU commission spokesman said he had no comment on the content of the list as it had not been finalized yet.

Countries are blacklisted if they “have strategic deficiencies in their anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism regimes that pose significant threats to the financial system of the Union,” the existing EU list says.

Under the new EU methodology, jurisdictions could also be blacklisted if they do not provide sufficient information on ownership of companies or if their rules on reporting suspicious transactions or monitoring financial customers are considered too lax.

Saudi Arabia missed out on gaining full FATF membership in September after it was determined to fall short in combating money laundering and terror financing.

The government has taken steps to beef up its efforts to tackle graft and abuse of power, but FATF said in September Riyadh was not effectively investigating and prosecuting individuals involved in larger scale money laundering activity or confiscating the proceeds of crime at home or abroad.

The EU has reviewed 47 jurisdictions, including the United States, Russia and Switzerland, before updating its list. EU countries were not screened.
…

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is telling his embattled Venezuelan counterpart, Nicolas Maduro, to “stand tall” in the face of national and international calls to step down amid a political crisis.

Maduro’s opponents accuse him of undermining democracy. He has presided over skyrocketing inflation, a collapsing economy and widespread shortages of basic goods.

Erdogan said Thursday he was shocked at U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to recognize Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido as the interim president.

In response to the announcement, Maduro said Wednesday he was ending diplomatic relations with the United States and ordered U.S. diplomats to leave within 72 hours. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Maduro no longer has the authority to do so.

Erdogan maintained that Maduro will prevail “If he continues to stand strong in the path he believes in.”

“Maduro, brother, stand tall. Turkey stands with you,” Erdogan told Maduro by telephone, Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin tweeted Thursday.

“I thank Russia, China, Turkey, and other governments and people of the world for their strong support of the legitimately established government of Venezuela,” Maduro said in a Twitter post. “Venezuela is not alone!” he added.

Despite the religiously conservative Erdogan and the left-wing Maduro coming from opposite ends of the political spectrum, the two leaders have built a strong relationship.

Maduro is a regular visitor to Turkey. He attended the Turkish president’s inauguration, while Erdogan visited Venezuela last year. Maduro provoked widespread condemnation after images of him dining at a famous Istanbul steak house went viral. Many Venezuelans are struggling to find enough to eat due to widespread food shortages.

“The support of Erdogan is vital for Maduro,” said Esra Akgemci of Turkey’s Selcuk University.

“It is clear that Maduro sees Turkey as a strategic alliance and wants to build deeper relations,” she added. “The support of Erdogan is more discursive. Erdogan himself had also suffered from a coup attempt [in 2016] and could not find the support he was seeking from the EU and USA, so supporting Maduro against a probable coup would strengthen his position both in internal and international politics.”

During the visit to Caracas, Erdogan pledged that Turkish companies would invest over $4.5 billion in Venezuela. Turkey has an agreement to process tons of Venezuelan gold; a move interpreted as a possible way to circumvent future U.S. sanctions. Turkish Airlines continues daily flights to Caracas, while many other international carriers have stopped service.

Turkish media are also strongly backing Maduro, accusing Washington of seeking to bring down a democratically elected president. “U.S.-backed coup attempt, this time in Venezuela,” read one headline.

“Massive U.S. pressure on any country could devastate its economy, finances, and politics easily. President Maduro’s principled resistance against these international pressures is exemplary,” wrote columnist Hakki Ocal in the pro-government Sabah newspaper.

Murat Yetkin, a well-known liberal journalist tweeted, “U.S.’s post-modern coup attempt in Venezuela cannot be accepted. The suffering of the people who live in the country with the richest oil reserves under the Maduro administration doesn’t change that. The decision cannot be taken by the U.S. or Trump. Next, there might be an occupation, by the U.S. or its collaborators.”

Drawing parallels

Turkish media have drawn parallels between Turkey and Venezuela, after Trump, in a tweet this month, threatened to “devastate” the Turkish economy if Ankara attacked U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish rebels.

In Turkey;’s deeply politically polarized society there is a rare consensus in support of Maduro.

“Most of the people here who can’t find Venezuela let alone Caracas on the map, are all fully behind Maduro,” said former senior Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen, “because they think the U.S. again is behind a coup or military intervention, as they did previously in Libya as they did in Egypt, as they did in Iraq. From the most hard core Islamist to the most hard core leftist today in Turkey, there is anti-Americanism. It is deep. It is fervent.”

The social media hashtag #WeAreMaduro, became one of the leading trending topics in Turkey, with many Turks posting images and comments in support for Maduro. The picture of Maduro holding an ancient Turkic flag is widely circulated.

Turkey and Latin America share similar histories of coups throughout the 1960s, ’70s and ’80s. Many in Turkey accuse the U.S. of being involved in the military takeovers. Turkish ministers openly accused the U.S. of being involved in the 2016 coup attempt, a charge Washington has denied.

Erdogan’s support for Maduro is expected to continue. Analysts point out standing up to what is deemed as “American imperialism” plays well in Turkey, and critical local elections are due to March; however, former diplomat Selcen suggests such support will remain mostly empty words.

“It’s mainly rhetoric,” said Selcen.”There are some rumors that if things go south for Maduro, he can perhaps find refuge in Turkey. But I believe it’s just about pleasing the crowd. When it comes to Venezuela, Turkey does not have the capacity to extend support to Venezuela. It’s out of area.”
…

Italy pressured the Netherlands on Friday to accept 47 migrants who have spent seven days at sea aboard a humanitarian rescue ship that has been allowed to enter Italian territorial waters due to bad weather conditions.

The German aid group Sea-Watch said Friday on Twitter that it has received no response to multiple requests for the Dutch-flagged Sea Watch-3 vessel carrying people rescued off Libya on Saturday to access a port. The boat was permitted to enter Italian waters Friday due to deteriorating weather conditions, and the Italian coast guard said it was about one to two miles off Syracuse, Sicily, flanked by coast guard and financial police boats.

Italy and Malta, the closest EU nations, have both refused to allow entry to rescue vessels operated by humanitarian groups in what they say is a bid to discourage smuggler boats from departing Libya by diminishing the prospect of rescue.

Italian Interior Minister Matteo Salvini told reporters in Rome that he sent a letter to the government in the Netherlands officially requesting that they organize landings for the migrants “aboard this vessel that waves a Dutch flag.”

There was no immediate comment from the Dutch government.

EU Commission President Jean Claude Juncker’s spokesman said that the commission is in touch with member states, and is watching the events closely.

“Our position is clear: The safety of the people on board must be our first concern and priority. What is urgently needed in the Mediterranean are predictable arrangements to ensure disembarkations of rescued persons can take place safely,” said spokesman Margaritis Schinas.

A similar impasse was resolved last month when Malta allowed 49 migrants to disembark two NGO-operated vessels, including Sea-Watch 3, after the EU brokered a deal to distribute the migrants among eight EU nations.
…

A Muslim party said it would launch a legal bid to change the name of Bosnia’s Serb region, enraging all Serbian parties in the volatile country and 

prompting calls for calm from the European Union. 

The largest Bosnian Muslim party, SDA, said Wednesday that the name Republika Srpska (Serb Republic) discriminated against 

Bosniaks and Croats there, and that it would challenge it in the 

constitutional court.

Under the 1995 Dayton peace accords that ended Bosnia’s 1992-95 war, the country is split into two highly autonomous regions, the Serb-dominated Serb Republic and the federation dominated by Muslim Bosniaks and Croats, linked via a weak central government.

SDA leader Bakir Izetbegovic said the legal challenge was a response to “intensified attacks on Bosnia and its integrity” by Bosnian Serb nationalist leader Milorad Dodik. 

Dodik, who heads the Serb SNSD party, said the initiative was anti-constitutional and that Serbs will halt their work in the central government.

“If the appeal is accepted, we will call a special session of the Republika Srpska National Assembly at which we will 

decide about the future status of the RS [Serb Republic],” Dodik said after meeting other Serb politicians. He currently chairs Bosnia’s inter-ethnic three-man presidency as its Serb member.

‘Polarizing’ actions

The EU delegation in Bosnia issued a statement saying: “We call on all political parties to refrain from political maneuvers aimed at distracting attention from the real issues facing Bosnia.

“Polarizing statements and actions … will not facilitate the formation of new authorities at a crucial moment for the country’s EU path,” the delegation added. 

Bosnia is hoping to become an EU candidate this year. 

Bosnia’s international peace overseer, Valentin Inzko, said the name challenge “in the midst of discussions on government formation is irresponsible and counterproductive, and further undermines the trust between constituent peoples and their political representatives.”

Following parliamentary and presidential elections in October, a dispute between Serb, Croat and Bosniak presidency members over Bosnia’s integration into NATO has delayed the formation of the central government.

The Bosniak and Croat pro-NATO presidency members refuse to approve Dodik’s candidate for the job of prime minister unless 

he pledges support for NATO integration. But pro-Russian Dodik is strongly against it.
…

The search for a two-year-old Spanish boy who fell into a narrow well Jan. 13 entered its riskiest phase Thursday as miners went down a new 60-meter (197-foot) parallel shaft to start digging across to the well.

There have been no signs of life since the boy, Julen, fell into the borehole as his family walked through a private estate in Totalan in southern Spain. Rescuers found the well was blocked with earth, raising fears soil had collapsed onto the child.

“Members of the Mines Rescue Brigade sent from Asturias [region] have just accessed the vertical well to start excavation … in the search for Julen,” said regional government representative Alfonso Celis at the site.

Miners working in rotating shifts will dig a 4-meter passage with picks and pneumatic hammers from the bottom of the shaft toward the borehole, which is 100 meters (300 feet) deep and just 25 cm wide.

Children and families have been holding candlelight vigils across Spain in support of the missing boy and of the massive rescue operation, even as hopes of finding him alive have faded with each passing day.

Engineers and miners have worked for 10 days in a row but have run into various technical problems while drilling a shaft parallel to the well.

“No miner is left in a mine, and Julen is now considered a miner,” Juan Lopez Escobar, one of the engineers in charge of the rescue operation, was quoted as saying by EFE news agency. “Whatever may have happened, a miner is always pulled out.”

He told reporters earlier that digging the horizontal passage would be the most dangerous part of the effort.

El Pais reported that Julen’s parents suffered another tragedy in 2017 when their three-year-old son died suddenly after suffering a cardiac arrest while walking along a beach.
…

Ford Motor Co said on Thursday it faces a bill of up to $1 billion if Britain leaves the European Union without a deal, comprising World Trade Organization tariffs and the impact of a weaker pound.

The impact of Brexit on Ford, based on internal calculations, would be in the range of $500 million to $1 billion depending on a variety of factors, Ford said in a statement.

Sky News earlier on Thursday reported the hit could be $800 million.

Car makers and other manufacturers, including Airbus earlier on Thursday, have warned about the toll a no-deal Brexit could impose, including higher tariffs, disruption to supply chains and threats to jobs.

Countdown to Brexit

Britain is due to leave the European Union in 64 days, and with Prime Minister Theresa May failing to win support for her negotiated deal, companies are increasingly worried about the possibility of a chaotic Brexit.

Ford Chief Financial Officer Bob Shanks on Wednesday declined to say what the financial impact of a no-deal exit could be, but said Ford was already planning for it.

“We clearly have already started to work on the eventuality of there being a hard Brexit,” he told reporters at the No. 2 U.S. automaker’s headquarters outside Detroit. “We’re certainly hoping that does not happen, but we can’t wait.”

“We’re actually incurring costs, doing things now to prepare for that, so there will be an impact. It’s a material impact,” he added.

Last week, Shanks said a no-deal exit was unlikely, but if it occurred it would be “catastrophic.”

Ford estimated last March that a hard Brexit, which would see WTO tariffs of 10 percent on imports and exports and lower levels on components, would cost it up to $1 billion per year.

Top-selling auto brand

Ford, the top-selling automotive brand in Britain, operates two engine plants in Britain, its third-largest market, and the destination for roughly one in three cars made at its German Cologne plant.

On Jan. 10, Ford, which employs 53,000 people in Europe, said it would cut thousands of jobs and look at plant closures in Europe as part of its plan to return to profit in the region.

The automaker employs about 13,000 people in Britain.
…

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has inched up slightly in the eyes of women’s groups who said on Wednesday he has delivered on some promises to make the global organization a feminist institution but faces a major backlash and resistance.

The Feminist U.N. Campaign, a coalition of women’s rights groups, advocates and U.N. staff, gave him a grade of B-, up from the C+ it gave him a year ago.

The coalition launched its report card after the secretary-general said he would be a feminist leader when he took office two years ago.

Global movement

In that time, the #MeToo campaign against sexual harassment and assault has become a global movement.

Guterres has promoted women’s rights and equality publicly, sought gender parity in leadership and rolled out efforts against sexual harassment and gender-based violence, the report said.

But an internal backlash and bureaucracy threaten his progress. His efforts to make structural changes have met “considerable resistance” from staff and member states that resist women’s rights, it said.

Lyric Thompson, an author of the report and a director at the Washington-based International Center for Research on Women, said she thinks Guterres has “a genuine intent and interest in being a champion” of women’s rights.

“The question is can he do everything in his power to be a feminist leader who enables that transformation and who makes it the new normal?” she said to the Thomson Reuters Foundation. The U.N. is “years away” from being a feminist institution, and attitudes of immunity and privilege operate to scuttle equality efforts, she said.

Just last week, a U.N. survey showed one third of its staff and contractors experienced sexual harassment in the past two years.

More than 30,000 people answered the survey, complaining of offensive jokes, remarks and sexual stories and of being touched in ways that made them uncomfortable.

The U.N. has tried to increase transparency and strengthen how it deals with such accusations over the past few years after a string of sexual exploitation and abuse accusations against U.N. peacekeepers in Africa.

The head of the U.N. agency for HIV and AIDS is stepping down in June, six months before his term ends, after an independent panel said his “defective leadership” tolerated “a culture of harassment, including sexual harassment, bullying, and abuse of power.”

‘Considerable progress’

The secretary-general’s office said it was pleased that the women’s groups saw improvement in Guterres’ handling of gender issues and agreed that more needs to be dome.

“At the same time, we believe the secretary-general has achieved considerable progress within the complex U.N. system at achieving real reforms to make the U.N. a better workplace for women and men alike,” his office said.

Guterres, the former prime minister of Portugal, was sworn in December 2016 after a campaign in which many countries urged selection of a woman. The U.N. has not been headed by a woman since its creation in 1945.
…

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Wednesday in his latest effort to build support for a Turkish-controlled military security zone in Syria.

“The U.S. has already expressed a positive stance. Neither do we have problems [concerning the safe zone] with Russia,” said Erdogan at a joint press conference in Moscow.

Erdogan is proposing a 250-kilometer-long and 32-kilometer-deep zone in northeast Syria to protect the Turkish border from the Syrian YPG Kurdish militia. Ankara accuses the YPG of links to Kurdish insurgency inside Turkey.

​However, the Turkish president envisages the zone not only providing security, but also an opportunity to ease Turkey’s refugee burden and growing economic difficulties.

At the Moscow press conference, Erdogan said the safe zone will allow Syrian refugees in Turkey to return.

The Turkish president said around 300,000 Syrians out of the 4 million that have sought refuge in Turkey have returned to two other regions in Syria captured from the YPG by Turkish forces in the past year.

“There is a huge amount of discontent in Turkey about Syrians,” said political analyst Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners. “The average, poor AKP [Erdogan’s party] voter, they see Syrian refugees as a competitor for limited public resources. It’s a huge problem for Erdogan.”

Ankara claims the cost of hosting Syrian refugees is over $30 billion.

The deteriorating economic situation exacerbates the Turkish public’s discontent over the refugees. Many economists predict Turkey will go into recession this year. Recent opinion polls indicate Erdogan’s AKP party’s commanding lead over its rivals is rapidly eroding, just ahead of critical local elections in March.

Housing projects

With a possible eye to kick-starting the economy, Erdogan earlier this month unveiled plans for major housing projects for returning Syrians in the proposed buffer zone in Syria.

“My plan would be to build two-story houses with gardens of 500-square meters so the inhabitants could begin a new life,” Erdogan said, adding that a buffer zone “would also block migration completely.”

Former senior Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen believes Ankara is looking to the EU to fund the construction project.

“For reconstruction of Syria, it will not be the U.S. because the U.S. say they will not take part in the construction as long as Assad stays,” Selcen said.

“The EU seems to be quite willing to play that role because they fear a new influx of refugees emanating from Syria. And Erdogan saw that clearly when dealing with the EU,” he added.

Turkey’s construction industry has been among the hardest hit by the country’s economic slowdown.

“More or less, the private construction industry is coming to a complete standstill,” Yesilada said. “It accounts for 10 percent of the GDP. In terms of employment, it’s hugely important, as it’s a labor-intensive industry. The entire construction industry is one of the pillars of economic growth.”

A senior economist for an international bank, speaking anonymously, claims Turkey’s construction sector could be in doldrums for a decade, due to the sector’s heavy debts and excessive unsold inventories.

Economic boost

International relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University said projects in Syria may well be able to boost Turkey’s beleaguered construction industry.

“There is no doubt Syria has to be rebuilt, and the Turkish contribution is going to be immense,” Bagci said. “We have been doing this in the good old times of 2008, 9, and 10. Turkey was building [in Syria] hotels, streets, train stations, many things. Why not start again? Reconciliation with Syria in economic terms would be perfect for Turkey.”

Bagci said, however, that any major reconstruction projects would require Ankara’s reopen diplomatic relations with Damascus. Erdogan steadfastly refuses to normalize ties until Syrian President Bashar al-Assad relinquishes power.

Analysts suggest Europe would also likely balk at providing significant financial support for projects in Turkey’s proposed safe zone without the Syrian intervention receiving international validation from the United Nations.

Syrian projects may not be enough to boost Turkey’s construction sector very much.

“It’s feasible TOKI [Turkish State constructor] can build satellite cities in Syria,” Yesilada said, “but turkey is a country where 600,000 new units are sold annually. In Syria, you are going to get a tenth of that a year. So, it’s going to help, but it’s not a lifesaver.”

Selcen also questions the number of Syrians who are ready to return.

“There are not significant numbers of Syrians returning,” he said. “The Syrians that are 3 million or so in Turkey. They are here to stay for the foreseeable future. And if you were in their shoes, would you want to leave a place like Istanbul for a destroyed country like Syria?”
…

A new study by a defense analysis company indicates there was a 33 percent drop in global terror attacks in 2018, and terrorism fatalities fell to a 10-year low.

Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Center released its annual Global Attack Index on Wednesday, saying one of the central reasons for the decrease in incidents and fatalities was the decrease in violence in Syria, where the government has gained control of territory previously occupied by Islamic State militants.

Attacks by IS in 2018 declined by nearly 75 percent compared to 2017. 

The study said in addition to Syria, IS was also affected by losses in Iraq, which “noticeably reduced” the militants’ capability to operate, forcing them to switch to “lower intensity insurgent operations.”

With violence down in Syria, Afghanistan became the deadliest country worldwide in 2018 in terms of nonmilitant fatalities. Jane’s said attacks rose by almost one-third last year, while fatalities rose 80 percent.

Ukraine also saw a marked rise in violence. In the east, home to a Russia-backed separatist insurgency, attacks have been rising 18.4 percent over the past year. The report attributed that rise “almost entirely” to two pro-Russia separatist groups operating in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region where the separatist movement is strongest.

The report said it recorded 15,321 attacks in 2018, which resulted in a total of 13,483 nonmilitant fatalities.

Jane’s has been issuing its reports since 2009. It said the 2018 study showed the lowest fatality numbers since it began issuing the report 10 years ago.
…

The Russian military on Wednesday rolled out a new missile and released its specifications, seeking to dispel the U.S. claim that the weapon violates a key nuclear arms pact.

The military insisted that the 9M729 land-based cruise missile conforms to the limits of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, firmly rejecting the U.S. claim that it has broken the pact by testing and deploying it.

The U.S. has announced its intention to abandon the INF, charging that the new Russian missile violates provisions of the pact that ban production, testing and deployment of land-based cruise and ballistic missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers (310 to 3,410 miles). Washington said it will suspend its treaty obligations if Russian fails to come into compliance by destroying all of its 9M729 missiles by Feb. 2.

Lt. Gen. Mikhail Matveevsky, the chief of the military’s missile and artillery forces, said at a meeting with foreign military attaches that the new missile, which is part of the Iskander-M missile system, has a maximum range of 480 kilometers (298 miles).

He said that the 9M729 missile differs from the previous 9M728 model by having a more powerful warhead and guidance system that enhances its precision.

The general then took the military attaches on a tour of the missile along with its mobile launcher displayed at the military’s exhibition center near Moscow.

Matveevsky insisted that the new missile’s booster, cruising engine and fuel tank remain unchanged. He rejected the U.S. claim that the missile’s increased length reflected a bigger fuel tank allowing a greater range, saying the size of the tank and the amount of fuel are identical to the older model.

The general noted that the new missile actually has a range 10 kilometers (6 miles) less than the older type due to heavier warhead and control systems.

Matveevsky particularly emphasized that the new missile can’t be modified in field conditions.

He explained that the upgraded mobile launcher for the new type of missile is bigger because it carries four of them rather than the previous two.

Matveevsky noted that the presentation underlined Russia’s “increased transparency and our adherence to the INF Treaty.”

The Kremlin has staunchly denied the U.S. claim of Russian violations of the pact.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov noted Wednesday that the U.S. hasn’t put forward any data to prove its claim that Russia has tested the missile at a range exceeding the treaty’s limit. He said the U.S. ignored Moscow’s offer to inspect the missile made during talks in Geneva earlier this month — a refusal he alleged reflected the lack of U.S. interest in meaningful negotiations.

He said the U.S. has made it clear during diplomatic contacts that President Donald Trump’s decision to abandon the pact is final and not subject to talks.

“We were given a clear message that this decision isn’t an invitation to dialogue and is final,” Ryabkov said.

U.S. Undersecretary of State Andrea Thompson, who led the American side in the talks, has said that Moscow’s offer is inadequate.

“To see the missile does not confirm the distance that missile can travel, and at the end of the day that’s the violation of the treaty,” she told reporters last week.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has insisted that it makes no sense for Russia to violate the pact by deploying the new land-based missile because it has similar missiles on ships and aircraft that are allowed by the INF Treaty.

The prospective collapse of the INF Treaty has raised concern in Europe, where many feared it would set the stage for a repeat of a Cold War showdown in the 1980s, when the U.S. and the Soviet Union both deployed intermediate-range missiles on the continent.

Such missiles were seen as particularly destabilizing as they only take a few minutes to reach their targets, leaving no time for decision-makers and raising the likelihood of a global nuclear conflict over a false launch warning.

Putin has warned that if the U.S. deploys such weapons in Europe after abandoning the treaty, Russia will respond by targeting nations that would host them.

 
…