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Swedes vote on Sunday in a tight election dominated by fears about asylum and welfare, with the populist, anti-immigration Sweden Democrats vying to become the biggest party in a country long seen as a bastion of economic stability and liberal values.

Far-right parties have made spectacular gains throughout Europe in recent years following a refugee crisis sparked by civil war in Syria and conflicts in Afghanistan and parts of Africa.

In Sweden, the influx of 163,000 asylum seekers in 2015 has polarized voters, fractured the cozy political consensus and could give the Sweden Democrats, a party with roots in the neo-Nazi fringe, a veto over which parties form the next government.

‘Sense of discontent’

“Traditional parties have failed to respond to the sense of discontent that exists,” Magnus Blomgren, a social scientist at Umea University. “That discontent maybe isn’t directly related to unemployment or the economy, but simply a loss of faith in the political system. Sweden isn’t alone in this.”

The center-left bloc, uniting the minority governing Social Democrat and Green parties with the Left Party, is backed by about 40 percent of voters, recent opinion polls indicate, with a slim lead over the center-right Alliance bloc.

The Sweden Democrats, who want the country to leave the European Union and put a freeze on immigration, have about 17 percent support, up from the 13 percent they scored in the 2014 vote, opinion polls suggest.

But their support was widely underestimated before the last election and some online surveys give them as much as 25 percent support, a result that would most likely make them the biggest party, dethroning the Social Democrats for the first time in a century.

That could weaken the Swedish crown in the short term, but analysts do not see any long-term effect on markets from the election as economic growth is strong, government coffers are well-stocked and there is broad agreement about the thrust of economic policy.

Euroskeptic voices

Sweden has flirted with populism before. New Democracy, founded by an aristocrat and a record producer, won nearly 7 percent of the vote in 1991 promising strict immigration policies, cheaper alcohol and free parking, before crashing out of parliament only three years later.

But if the Sweden Democrats get a quarter of the vote, it would be a sensation in a country described as a “humanitarian superpower” by then-Moderate Party Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt in 2014.

It would also make them the biggest populist party in the Nordic region, topping the Danish People’s Party, which got 21 percent support in 2015, and trump the 12.6 percent for the far-right Alternative for Germany, which swept into the Bundestag in 2017.

With an eye on the European Parliament elections next year, Brussels policymakers are watching the vote in Sweden closely, concerned that a nation with impeccable democratic credentials could add to the growing chorus of euroskepticism in the EU.

Sweden took in more asylum seekers per capita than any other country in Europe in 2015, magnifying worries about a welfare system that many voters already believe is in crisis.

Lengthening queues for critical operations, shortages of doctors and teachers, and a police service that has failed to deal with inner-city gang violence have shaken faith in the “Swedish model,” built on a promise of comprehensive welfare and social inclusion.

Akesson’s objectives

Sweden Democrat leader Jimmie Akesson has labeled the vote a choice between immigration and welfare.

He has also promised to sink any government that refuses to give his party a say in policy, particularly on immigration.

Mainstream politicians have so far rebuffed him. But with some kind of cooperation between parties in the center-left and center-right blocs the only other alternative out of the current political deadlock, analysts believe Akesson may yet end up with some influence on policy.

With both options unpalatable to the traditional players, forming a government could take weeks.

Polling stations open at 8 a.m. (0600 GMT) and close at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT), with exit polls set be published by Sweden’s two main broadcasters around that time. Results from the vote count will become clear later in the evening.
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British anti-terrorism officers were helping to investigate a knife attack in a northern English town Saturday in which one man was injured, although police said they were keeping an open mind.

A 28-year-old woman was arrested on suspicion of attempted murder, they said, after what officers earlier called a “serious incident” in Barnsley that resulted in the man suffering minor injuries.

A kitchen knife had been recovered and was being forensically examined, South Yorkshire police said.

“At this stage we are keeping an open mind as to the motivation … we are receiving support from detectives at Counter Terrorism Policing North East,” the police said in a statement.

“The woman is currently being assessed from a mental health perspective,” the police said.

An investigation had begun to establish whether it was an isolated incident and whether the suspect acted alone.

Sections of the town center shopping area where the incident occurred were still cordoned off Saturday as forensics officers clad in white suits gathered evidence.

Police released no further details of the incident, but urged the public to remain vigilant and appealed for witnesses.

“We understand that this morning’s incident will have been distressing and shocking for those in the town center,” said Assistant Chief Constable Tim Forbes. ” … Rest assured we are working relentlessly to piece together

what happened.”
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Turkey is again warning that a “bloodbath” would result from any Syrian government military offensive on Syria’s last rebel stronghold of Idlib.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan repeated that warning Friday as a trilateral summit involving his country and Russia, and hosted by Iran, appeared to end in deadlock over efforts to avert conflict in the Idlib enclave.

“We never want Idlib to turn into a bloodbath,” Erdogan said at a news conference with his Russian and Iranian counterparts. “Any attack launched or to be launched on Idlib will result in a disaster, massacre and a very big humanitarian tragedy,” Erdogan added.

Syrian forces have been massing around Idlib, backed by Russian air power and naval might. The Tehran summit was touted as the last chance to avoid the looming military operation. Iran and Russia maintain that Damascus is right to deal with terrorist threats.

“Fighting terrorism in Idlib is an unavoidable part of the mission of restoring peace and stability to Syria,” Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said at the press conference, adding, “but this battle must not cause civilians to suffer or lead to a scorched earth policy.”

“The legitimate Syrian government has a right and must eventually take control of its entire national territory,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said, supporting his Iranian counterpart.

Russian bombers this week started to target Idlib ahead of an expected ground operation. Around 3 million civilians are believed to be trapped in the enclave bordering Turkey.

Erdogan warned that with Turkey hosting millions of Syrian refugees, it cannot take in any others.

“That [Idlib attack] would lead to a humanitarian wave adding to existing refugees, but because of the nature with Idlib, some of these refugees would be people associated with jihadist groups,” said political analyst Sinan Ulgen, head of the Istanbul-based Edam research institution.

“So it represents not only a humanitarian burden on Turkey, but also a very significant security risk going forward,” he added. “So that is a scenario Turkey wants to prevent and relies on Russia’s support.”

At the Tehran summit, Erdogan proposed a cease-fire in which the radical jihadist groups could be disarmed and removed from the region.

Ankara is one of the main backers of the Syrian rebels, developing strong ties with myriad warring opposition groups. Turkey’s relations with the opposition made it a key partner with Russia and Iran in their efforts to end the Syrian civil war under the so-called “Astana Process.”

Idlib is the last of four de-escalation zones created under the auspices of the Astana Process in which rebels and their families were transferred to designated areas protected by a cease-fire. Much to Ankara’s anger, the other de-escalation zones were overrun by Syrian government forces and Russian airpower, the fate now awaiting Idlib.

Twelve Turkish military outposts are located in the Idlib enclave as part of the agreement to create the de-escalation zone with Tehran and Moscow. Speaking in Tehran, Erdogan reiterated that the military posts were to protect civilians. Some analysts suggest that could be a thinly veiled warning.

On Thursday, Ibrahim Karagol, a columnist closely linked to Erdogan, was more direct. “A possible attack on these military posts (in Idlib) or provocation by the Damascus administration or the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) and other organizations that act in cooperation with the regime will be met with an extremely harsh reaction from Turkey — just as it should be,” wrote Karagolin the pro-government Yeni Safak newspaper. Turkey considers the PKK a terrorist group. The PKK has been waging a long-running insurgency in southeastern Turkey.

Earlier this year, a senior adviser to Erdogan warned against any attack on Idlib, describing it as a “red line.”

In the last couple of weeks, Ankara has been reinforcing its military presence in Idlib, reportedly including deployment of anti-aircraft missiles. Turkish tanks are also being deployed on the enclave’s border, ostensibly to deal with a refugee exodus.

Ankara’s cooperation with Moscow on Syria has been the basis of a broader deepening of bilateral ties, at the same time as U.S.-Turkish relations deteriorate. Ties have been strained in part over Turkey’s detention of a U.S. pastor whose release the United States has demanded. Turkey is calling on the U.S. to extradite a cleric accused of involvement in a 2016 coup attempt against Erdogan. The cleric, Fethullah Gulen, denies the accusation.

Idlib, however, is providing rare common ground between Ankara and Washington, with U.S. President Donald Trump warning against a major offensive on the enclave; however, given what analysts suggest is the improbability of any U.S. military intervention, Ankara will be reluctant to sacrifice its ties with Moscow.

“Ankara needs to be realistic. It cannot totally alienate itself from Russia, given that it still needs Russia as a partner in Syria,” analyst Ulgen said. “Turkey would not want to find itself in a position it can no longer cooperate with Russia, because of their other concerns regarding Syria.”

Addressing one pressing Turkish concern, Rouhani appeared to reach out to Erdogan on Friday, condemning Washington’s military support of a Syrian Kurdish militia, the YPG.

“The illegal presence and interference of America in Syria which has led to the continuation of insecurity in that country, must end quickly,” Rouhani said. Ankara has repeatedly condemned U.S. support of the YPG Kurdish militia in its fight against Islamic State, calling it a terrorist organization linked to the PKK insurgency inside Turkey.

“Terrorists are trying to establish a foothold there with the help of foreign powers and stay there forever,” Erdogan said Friday. “We are very concerned with the attempts by the United States to empower and support those terrorist organizations.”
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As U.S. ties with Turkey have turned sour, relations between the U.S. and Greece are warming rapidly. U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross arrived Friday in Thessaloniki along with a bevy of American officials and U.S. companies for an international trade fair. VOA’s Jamie Dettmer reports.
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U.S. and European Union officials are considering new ways to penalize Russia after concluding economic sanctions have not influenced Moscow’s behavior. The sanctions were imposed after Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimea Peninsula in 2014 and were extended after a Russian-made nerve agent killed one person and sickened three more in Britain. Observers say Russia’s economy has suffered because of sanctions, but that has not deterred Russian President Vladimir Putin. VOA’s Zlatica Hoke has more.]]
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A Polish national who fled to the U.S. after being found guilty in a massive fraud case dating back to the country’s communist era is fighting his extradition while imprisoned in Florida.

Dariusz Przywieczerski fled his home country to avoid incarceration. He was found guilty in 2005 of being involved in a scheme to illegally trade in foreign debt at a state agency controlled by the communist secret service.

The fraud involving the Foreign Debt Servicing Fund, known as FOZZ, cost the country’s treasury the equivalent of about 80 million euros in the late 1980s.

Several others involved were given prison sentences in Poland.

Living in Florida

The 72-year-old was arrested in October 2017 in Florida, where he has been residing. He has since been fighting his extradition and has a pending case with the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals.

He has been given until November 5 to submit a written brief and is representing himself without an attorney.

In court documents, Przywieczerski claimed to be impoverished and suffering from numerous ailments, including diabetes and “significant hearing loss.”

He remains under the supervision of the U.S. Marshals Service, the federal agency that tracks down fugitives.

“He is still in our custody in the Pinellas County Jail, in Florida,” spokesman Ron Lindbak told AFP.

Claims trial unfair

Przywieczerski claimed in court his rights to a fair trial and due process were being violated, and that a U.S. judge erred in approving his extradition.

“I did not receive a fair trial in Poland, and the prosecution should have been barred by statute of limitations,” he wrote in federal court petition.

“The Polish judge was not impartial and advocated for a special law to enlarge the statute of limitations solely for my prosecution. My Polish convictions must be considered null and void.”

FOZZ, which was closely controlled by the secret services in the early 1990s, was set up by the central European nation’s last Communist regime to buy back Poland’s external debt.

FOZZ bosses moved the funds earmarked for the debt buy-up through fictitious offshore companies, described by prosecutors during a marathon trial nearly two decades ago as “a parade of swindlers.”
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China accused Britain of “provocation” after a Royal Navy warship sailed near islands claimed by Beijing in the disputed South China Sea. 

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying said Britain had “violated international and Chinese laws” when the HMS Albion sailed by the Paracel Islands on Aug. 31. 

“The Chinese Navy legally verified the ship and warned it to leave,” Hua told a news briefing Thursday. 

Vietnam and Taiwan also claim the islands, also known as Xisha in Chinese and Hoang Sa in Vietnamese.

Reuters news agency, which first reported the story Thursday, said Albion’s maneuver was an assertion of freedom of navigation. The U.S. Navy has also sent ships and planes to the disputed area to conduct Freedom of Navigation Operations. 

Britain and France announced in June that they would send ships to the region for similar exercises.

China claims a large swathe of the South China Sea, extending from its southern coast almost to Malaysia, a much larger area than the internationally recognized territorial limit of 22 nautical kilometers (12 nautical miles).

China’s claim is contested by Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam. 
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The International Criminal Court ruled Thursday it has jurisdiction to investigate the alleged forced mass exodus of Rohingya Muslims from Myanmar to neighboring Bangladesh as a possible crime against humanity.

The Hague-based court said the top prosecutor must consider the ruling “as she continues with her preliminary examination concerning the crimes allegedly committed against the Rohingya people.”

The ruling came after chief prosecutor Fatou Bensouda, in an unprecedented move, asked judges for an opinion on whether she could investigate the deportations as a crime against humanity.

The preliminary probe, which aims to determine if there is sufficient evidence to launch a full investigation, “must be concluded within a reasonable time,” the court said.

Myanmar is not a member of the court, but Bangladesh is — which was the basis of Bensouda’s argument for jurisdiction. She compared deportation to “a cross-border shooting” that “is not completed until the bullet [fired in one country] strikes and kills the victim [in another country].”

About 700,000 Rohingya Muslims have fled Myanmar’s northern Rakhine state into Bangladesh since August of last year to escape a military offensive that has resulted in torched villages and allegations of murder and rape by troops and vigilantes.

A special U.N. investigative panel accused Myanmar’s military on August 27 of carrying out numerous atrocities during the crackdown against the Rohingya “with genocidal intent” after a series of Rohingya militant attacks on security outposts.

The panel, sanctioned by the U.N. Human Rights Council, concluded in a scathing report that Myanmar’s military actions were “grossly disproportionate to actual security threats.”

Investigators also denounced Myanmar’s de facto leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, for failing to use her position and “her moral authority” to prevent the crisis.

Aung San Suu Kyi received a Nobel Peace Prize for her decades-long struggle against Myanmar’s former military regime, but her global reputation has been tarnished for failing to speak out in support the Rohingya.

 
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Three Baltic countries have lashed out at retail giant Walmart for selling online T-shirts and other products with Soviet Union emblems on them, and demanded that the goods be removed.

Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were forcibly annexed by Moscow in 1940 and remained part of the Soviet Union until its collapse in 1991, except for a brief occupation by Nazi Germany 1941-1944.  Lithuania has been taking a particularly hard line against its communist-era legacy, banning all Soviet symbols as well as Nazi ones.

“Horrific crimes were done under the Soviet symbols of a sickle and hammer,” the Lithuanian ambassador to the United States, Rolandas Krisciunas, wrote Wednesday to Walmart. “The promotion of such symbols resonates with a big pain for many centuries.”

“When the Soviet Union occupied Lithuania, hundreds of thousands of our citizens were killed, exiled, tortured, raped, separated from their families. Similar fates struck dozens of millions of other innocent people, including children, across Europe and across the globe,” the ambassador wrote.   

Krisciunas said he does not believe that Walmart deliberately chose to offend by selling the T-shirts, tank tops and sweatshirts with Soviet symbols and the letters USSR. “But in this case, the T-shirts and other products with the symbols of mass murder should be immediately withdrawn,” he wrote.

The Baltic News Service said a group of lawmakers from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania had written Wednesday another letter to Walmart, saying “it is utterly disappointing [that the chain] does not show respect for the millions of different citizens who fell victim to the Soviet totalitarian regime.”

Selling such items “demonstrates lack of human decency,” the BNS news agency quoted them as saying. They added that Walmart “participates in promotion, among its customers worldwide, of totalitarianism, human rights abuse and suppression of freedom and democracy, the values that allowed such corporations as Walmart to grow and prosper.”

“We call on Walmart Inc. to demonstrate their corporate responsibility…and immediately discontinue selling of the…items,” they wrote, according to BNS.

There was no immediate reaction from the retailer based in Bentonville, Arkansas.

It seemed from the site that it is a third-party company — called Buy Cool Shirts — that sells the shirts through Walmart Inc.’s page.

In May, German sports gear maker Adidas agreed to remove a red tank top with the letters USSR and emblems of the Soviet Union from its online store. The item was being sold ahead of the soccer World Cup in Russia.

 
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Georgette Mosbacher, an entrepreneur and Republican donor, officially began her term as the new U.S. ambassador to Poland on Thursday by presenting her credentials to President Andrzej Duda.

The 71-year-old Mosbacher was tapped by President Donald Trump for her mission in the nation of 38 million that has close ties with Washington. Warsaw was the inaugural stop on Trump’s first European tour last year.

The two NATO allies share security concerns in the face of Russia’s increased military activity. Poland is seeking a greater U.S. troop presence on its territory and in the region.

Duda is to hold talks with Trump at the White House on Sept. 18. The meeting is expected to cover energy cooperation and increasing business ties.

Poland wants to increase the volume of liquefied gas contracts with the U.S., as it seeks to cut dependence on gas imports from Russia, which has occasionally used them as a political tool. Poland also wants more U.S. investment to help fuel it’s fast-developing economy.

The ceremony at the early 19th century Belweder palace in Warsaw included a handshake and a few brief remarks exchanged.
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International calls for restraint grew Wednesday for Syria and its allies, Russia and Iran, to avoid a bloodbath and humanitarian disaster in Syria’s Idlib province.

The northwestern province along the Turkish border is the last major part of Syria in rebel hands. Syrian forces are surrounding the province, and observers say a multiparty operation may be imminent.

Meeting Wednesday with the emir of Kuwait, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah, President Donald Trump called the situation in Idlib “very sad.”

“That cannot be a slaughter. If it’s a slaughter, the world is going to get very, very angry and the United States is going to get angry, too,” Trump added.

When a reporter asked Trump if he was not going to let an attack on Idlib happen, the president said only that he was watching very closely.

The 10 nonpermanent members of the U.N. Security Council issued a joint statement Wednesday urging all parties in Syria to show restraint. They said a military strike on Idlib would lead to a “humanitarian catastrophe.”

The entire council is scheduled to meet Friday to discuss the crisis, while at the same time, the presidents of Turkey, Russia and Iran are planning to hold a summit in Tehran.

Russia and Iran are Syria’s top allies, and Turkey fears another refugee crisis along its border if Syrian forces attack Idlib.

The three nations last year declared Idlib to be a “de-escalation zone,” and Turkey says the cease-fire inside Idlib must not be violated. Moscow, however, has called Idlib a “nest of terrorists,” the word it uses to refer to the rebels.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Russian airstrikes on Idlib killed at least nine civilians Tuesday. 

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu met with his German counterpart, Heiko Maas, in Ankara Wednesday, in part to send a message to Moscow that such attacks are unacceptable.

Cavusoglu says Russian and Turkish officials have been holding talks on preventing a military strike on Idlib.

“We don’t find it correct that the [Russian raids] happened before the Tehran summit,” he said. “If the problem here is the radical groups, a common strategy needs to be adopted. Joint work can be done to eliminate these groups, but the solution is definitely not to bomb Idlib in its entirety.”

Maas said Germany was also concerned about massive bloodshed and “looming humanitarian catastrophe” inside Idlib.

About 3 million people are in the province. Many of them are rebels and their families who went there after being given a chance to evacuate from other areas formerly held by rebels before Syrian forces moved in.

The Syrian military has been urging the rebels in Idlib to surrender.
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German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas is making a two-day visit to Turkey in the latest step in warming relations between the two countries.

Last year, bilateral relations plummeted to the point that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused German Chancellor Angela Merkel of using “Nazi methods.”

But before leaving for Ankara, Maas  said “we are determined to keep working hard to improve our relations. Turkey is more than a large neighbor, it is an important partner of Germany.”

Maas will meet Erdogan and top Turkish ministers.

The visit is to prepare for Erdogan’s state visit to Berlin later this month, a rare privilege in Europe, analysts say, given Turkey’s poor human rights record.

Looking for help

“There indeed seems to be a warming of relations between Turkey and Germany,” said political analyst Sinan Ulgen of the Istanbul-based Edam research group. “Turkey’s relationship with its other big partner in the West, the United States, is under tension. So,there is a real willingness in Ankara to improve the relations with key European countries, primarily Germany.”

Last month’s imposition of U.S. tariffs on Turkish goods triggered a collapse in Turkey’s currency, threatening a financial crisis. The Turkish and German finance ministers are to meet in Berlin later this month to reportedly discuss financial support for Turkey.

Until recently, Erdogan had threatened to look east toward Moscow, in response to souring ties with Washington and Europe. But analysts point out that Turkish financial woes and the deepening crisis in Syria, underscore the limits of Ankara’s relationship with Moscow.

“There was always a consciousness in Ankara that Russia could never really be a strategic partner to Turkey,” Ulgen said. “Namely, there continue to be fundamental differences on how the two countries look at developments in the region, be it Syria, Ukraine, Crimea.”

“Secondly,” he added, “Russia is not an economic partner in the sense that the IMF [International Monetary Fund] or EU could ever be,” he added, “so expectations in terms that Russia could be helpful in an economic downturn scenario in Turkey were always very superficial.”

Human rights

Turkey’s human rights record is seen as a significant stumbling block to any improvement in relations with the EU.

Maas said he would call on Turkish authorities for the release of seven German citizens, which Berlin claims are being held for political reasons.German politicians are accusing Ankara of pursing hostage diplomacy.

Ankara insists the Turkish judiciary is independent. But in the past few months, Turkish courts have released German journalists Deniz Yucel and Mesale Tolu.

Analysts warn if Ankara is seeking significant improvement in its ties with Berlin and the wider European Union, it will have to take substantial steps toward complying with EU standards on human rights defined by the Copenhagen Criteria.

“The EU demand of meeting the Copenhagen Criteria requires having some kind of democratic regime — some kind of independent judiciary, some role for checks and balances,” said political analyst Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners. “You cannot put people in jail for their postings on social media or arrest journalists for writing something Erdogan doesn’t like. These practices need to stop.”

“Ankara is looking for a relationship that is devoid of political conditionality. From the European perspective, that will not be possible,” Ulgen said.

Analysts claim the decline in human rights in Turkey means Ankara’s EU membership hopes are all but finished.

“This vocation of becoming a full EU member is over,” said former senior Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen. “Now, even to renew the customs union is not going to happen this year or next.”

“But yet separately,” he added, “those countries in the European Union are the biggest trade partners of Turkey, and it will remain so,” he added. “Especially Turkey and Germany enjoy a special relationship with many problems, but no country can replace Germany for Turkish industry, and Turkey needs more industrial production to get out of this dire straits in Turkey.”

Analysts say an EU agreement with Turkey to control migrants entering European countries remains a compelling reason for Berlin and the rest of the bloc to improve relations and maintain Turkey’s economic stability.

“Given that both parties now realize that Turkey’s accession is unfeasible, at least for the foreseeable future, a new relationship will have to be defined,” Ulgen said. “A new balance has to be struck overall.”
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Britain risks huge disruptions to its economy and society, including trade, transport, health care and citizens’ rights, if it leaves the European Union next March without a deal. That’s the conclusion of a new report on the short-term risks of a so-called ‘no-deal Brexit.’ The report comes as lawmakers return to London after a six-week summer break to face growing uncertainty over Britain’s future relations with the EU. Henry Ridgwell reports from London.
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British public opinion on leaving the European Union is still deeply split, according to a survey on Wednesday, indicating only a slight increase in support for remaining a member despite growing pessimism about the outcome of negotiations.

Britain is due to leave the EU on March 29, 2019 but has yet to secure an exit agreement to define future relations with Brussels and manage the economic impact of ending over four decades of integration with the world’s largest trading bloc.

Polling showed 59 percent of voters would now vote to remain in the bloc, versus 41 percent who would vote to leave. The findings were published in an academic-led report on Wednesday by research bodies NatCen and The UK in a Changing Europe.

That is the highest recorded support for ‘remain’ in a series of five such surveys since the 2016 referendum and a large reversal of the actual 52-48 percent vote to leave.

But the author of the report, polling expert John Curtice, added a note of caution, saying that their panel of interviewees reported they had voted 53 percent in favor of remain in the original vote – a higher proportion than the actual vote.

“Nevertheless, this still means that there has apparently been a six-point swing from Leave to Remain, larger than that registered by any of our previous rounds of interviewing, and a figure that would seemingly point to a 54 percent (Remain) vote in any second referendum held now,” Curtice said in the report.

The government has ruled out holding a second referendum.

The survey interviewed 2,048 subjects between June 7 and July 8. That means the survey does not fully reflect any change in opinion brought about by the publication of Prime Minister Theresa May’s negotiating strategy, published in early July.

That negotiating strategy has split May’s party at every level and drawn heavy criticism from both Brexit supporters and those who want to retain close ties to the EU.

Nevertheless, the poll shows voters thought the negotiations were going badly even before the publication of May’s so-called Chequers plan.

“Both Remain and Leave supporters have become markedly more critical of how both the U.K. government – especially – and the EU – somewhat less so – have been handling the negotiations,” Curtice said. “They have also become markedly more pessimistic about how good a deal Britain will get.”

Curtice said the results of the polling showed that the most influential factor over whether voters will support the conclusion of the negotiations is their perception of its economic effect rather than the details of any deal.
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French President Emmanuel Macron planned to focus this month on promoting his policies to reshape the economy. Instead, he’s encountered obstacles.

The resignations of two popular Cabinet ministers, snags in a pending income tax system, and anger over cuts in family and housing benefits greeted Macron as France returned from summer holidays.

Last week, the 40-year-old leader branded the French as “Gauls resistant to change.” He made the remark while reaffirming his intent to push for loosening France’s rigid labor rules despite such resistance.

Missing ministers

Environment Minister Nicolas Hulot’s resignation last week was an unexpected blow. Hulot, the well-known host of a television nature show, personified Macron’s agenda for greener policies.

Hulot’s decision to quit raised questions about the president’s commitment to “Make our planet great again” — a verbal jab at U.S. President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris climate accord.

An experienced politician and environmentalist, Francois de Rugy, was named as the new environment minister Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Sport Minister Laura Flessel, who holds two Olympic gold medals in fencing, tendered her resignation Tuesday for “personal reasons.” She was replaced by swimmer Roxana Maracineanu, world champion in backstroke at the 1998 World Aquatics Championships.

Taxing times

A major change in French life is set to take place in January with the introduction of a new schedule and system for paying income taxes.

Macron suggested last week that potential technical bugs could be an issue. His comments made the government look unprepared to the public.

Yet Prime Minister Edouard Philippe confirmed on Tuesday night that the measure, launched under Macron’s predecessor Francois Hollande, will be implemented as planned.

The measure would require workers to have taxes automatically and immediately deducted from their salaries each month. French workers currently pay taxes on what they earned the year before with one or several payments.

The switch has raised concerns about taxpayer privacy since employers and not tax authorities would be responsible for overseeing the automated deductions.

The government also fears a negative psychological impact on French workers who would see lower monthly earnings on their pay slips even though their annual tax liability would be the same.

Growing pains

The French government recently lowered its economic growth forecast for next year to 1.7 percent — down from the previous estimate of 1.9 percent — and unveiled plans to cut public spending.

Pensions and family and housing benefits would no longer be pegged to inflation. That means they would increase at a more moderate pace and the purchasing power of retirees and families would decrease.

Philippe, the prime minister, said the government would not cut benefits for France’s poorest residents.

Macron has pledged to pursue labor changes in the coming months, with a focus on small businesses, to boost growth.

Sliding popularity

Two recent opinion polls by French institutes Ifop and BVA showed Macron’s popularity rating at 31 and 34 percent respectively — the lowest since his election in May 2017.

Meanwhile, labor unions are considering more strikes to protest policies of Macron’s they see as weakening hard-won workers protections.

Worker unions CGT and FO and student unions Unef and UNL have called for an “action day” on Oct. 9.

Macron’s government struggled in the past year to pass labor reforms and a revamping of national railway company SNCF. The initiatives prompted large protests and months-long rolling strikes from railway workers.
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Laboratory tests by the chemical weapons watchdog confirmed British conclusions that two people in Amesbury, southwest England, were exposed to a Novichok-type nerve agent, it said Tuesday.

The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) said analysis by designated laboratories of samples collected by its team “confirm the findings of the United Kingdom relating to the identity of the toxic chemical.”

Dawn Sturgess, 44, died after she and her partner were exposed to the toxin near the city of Salisbury where Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia were struck down with the same poison in March.

The OPCW said “it is also the same toxic chemical that was found in the biomedical and environmental samples relating to the poisoning of Sergei Skripal.”

The U.K. has accused Russia, which developed the toxic agent in the Soviet Union era, of poisoning the Skripals. Moscow denies all involvement.

Britain is ready to ask Russia to extradite two men it suspects of carrying out the nerve agent attack on Skripal.
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Russia on Tuesday joined Iran in expressing support for Syria’s impending operation to retake control of rebel-held Idlib province, the last major opposition stronghold in the country.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Idlib is a pocket of terrorism, and that the situation there is undermining efforts to find a political resolution to the Syrian conflict.

That follows statements Monday by Iran’s Foreign Ministry saying Idlib should be cleared of “terrorists.” Iranian media also quoted Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif saying during a visit to Syria that Idlib should be put back under the control of the Syrian people, and that reconstruction efforts in Syria and the return of refugees should go forward.

There are about 3 million people in Idlib and the United Nations has said it is worried about the potential humanitarian toll that may come with a Syrian military campaign there.

Trump’s warning

U.S. President Donald Trump warned Syria in a tweet Monday evening not to “recklessly attack” attack Idlib. He also called on two major backers of President Bashar al-Assad’s military to also restrain their actions.

“The Russians and Iranians would be making a grave humanitarian mistake to take part in this potential human tragedy. Hundreds of thousands of people could be killed. Don’t let that happen!” Trump said.

David Lesch, a history professor at Trinity University in San Antonio, told VOA that while the Trump administration is “ratcheting up the pressure a little bit” beyond its previous admonitions to not use chemical weapons, but that U.S. influence on what happens in Idlb is limited.

“Frankly speaking, I don’t think there’s anything the United States can do about it. I think Russia and the Syrian government and their allies are dead-set on taking over Idlib, either in a phased way or in an all-out massive invasion,” Lesch said.

Syria has been at war since early 2011 with a multitude of parties including pro-government forces, rebel groups and militants all fighting for control over various areas.

Assad’s forces, backed by military support from Russia and Iran, have recaptured major cities in recent years, often involving agreements with both opposition fighters and civilians that allowed them to flee to Idlib.

Assad’s government has long referred to any opposition fighters as “terrorists.” The Idlib area includes both rebel groups and militants such as the Nusrah Front.

The presidents of Iran, Russia and Turkey are set to hold a meeting in Tehran on Friday to discuss the situation in Idlib.

Victor Beattie contributed to this report.
…

French President Emmanuel Macron hopes to draw a line under a raft of troubles plaguing his 16-month-old presidency and to re-energize his economic reform drive with a Cabinet reshuffle Tuesday

Macron was forced into the move by the surprise exit of his former ecology minister, Nicolas Hulot, who said he despaired at what he felt were hollow commitments on environmental policy.

Resigning live on air last week, Hulot’s resignation was a setback for the 40-year-old French leader, who returned from the summer break reeling from a bodyguard scandal and preparing to embark on a new wave of economic reforms.

Cabinet redone quickly

Benjamin Griveaux, government spokesman, said the Cabinet would be complete in time for Wednesday morning’s weekly Cabinet meeting but was tight-lipped on the scope.

Hours before the expected announcement, Sports Minister Laura Flessel said she was resigning from the government for personal reasons.

“I will continue to be a faithful teammate of the president and prime minister, whose determination I admire and whose values and patriotism I share,” said Flessel, a former Olympic fencing champion and one of Macron’s most popular ministers.

For much of Macron’s first year in power, the former investment banker appeared untouchable, self-assured and unfazed by his falling popularity as he pushed through investor-friendly reforms with a business-like efficiency.

Recently, however, Macron has looked more vulnerable.

Economic growth is slower than forecast, undermining his deficit-busting credentials. Usually decisive, he is wavering on an impending tax collection reform. Meanwhile, voters are growing impatient with his monarchical style and sharp tongue.

“It wasn’t supposed to happen to this president. He promised to be audacious in his reforms, efficient in the exercise of power, and the embodiment of dignity. In his first few months the promise was kept, but now everything is going wrong,” the right-leaning Le Figaro said in an editorial on Monday.

‘Year zero’

Macron has sold his pro-business reform drive on promises that it will boost growth and jobs, but voters spanning typically conservative pensioners to low-income workers complain the president’s policies favor big business and the wealthy.

Next up for his centrist government is tackling social spending, a delicate political balancing act as he seeks to restore credibility with left-leaning voters, just as weaker-than-forecast growth puts pressure on the budget deficit and his popularity plumbs new lows.

Macron’s election victory, which blew apart France’s mainstream parties and halted the march of the far-right National Front party, delighted French business and urban, liberal voters.

But prone to haughty and at times condescending remarks, he has struggled to connect with common folk.

Popularity flags

An IFOP-Fiducial opinion poll Tuesday showed just 31 percent of respondents were happy with his performance as support eroded across all ages on both the political left and right.

That is lower than his predecessor Francois Hollande at the same stage in the socialist’s presidency. Hollande went on to become so unpopular he was the first president in France’s Fifth Republic not to run for re-election.

“It’s something of a ‘year zero’ for Emmanuel Macron. The slate is being wiped clean, even his popularity is starting at zero again. Everything has to be rebuilt,” said Philippe Moreau Chevrolet of the Sciences Po political school in Paris.

In a rare moment of humility, Macron on Monday acknowledged the challenges of his job to a class of young school students: “There are some days which are easy, and others which are not.”
…

Turkey saw the inflation rate rise to nearly 18 percent in August, a 15-year high fueled by a collapse in the Turkish lira, which fell more than 20 percent over the past few weeks.

The rising inflation and a falling currency are stoking fears Turkey is on the verge of financial and economic crisis.

“It’s the beginning of the slippery slope. It’s going to get worse unless there is a miraculous improvement in the exchange rate,” political analyst Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners said. “We’ve reached the stage where there is nothing to anchor price expectations. People simply can’t gauge what prices or wages or costs will be next month.”

“It’s a very dismal set of numbers. The likelihood is headline inflation will reach 20 percent in (the) coming months,” economist Inan Demir of Nomura Securities said. “This is clearly a set of numbers that warrant a monetary response from inflation targeting the central bank.”

The Turkish Central Bank, in a statement on its website, vowed to act, promising to use all tools at its disposal and reshape its monetary policy stance at a Sept. 13 meeting where they will discuss interest rates.

The lira recouped much of its initial heavy losses following the release of the latest inflation figures.

“This (the central bank statement) is seen as a signal for a rate hike in that meeting,” Demir said. “Even though the wording of the statement is very uncertain, the expectation of tightening are curbing lira weakness after bad inflation numbers.”

International criticism

International investors sharply criticized the central bank for failing to aggressively raise interest rates to rein in inflation and defend the currency. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s influence is widely seen as responsible for the failure of the bank to act. Erdogan has repeatedly voiced opposition to raising interest rates.

“There will be a massive sell-off to the point of panic if they don’t raise rates,” Yesilada said. “This time, they have no option, even if they meant something else (in their statement), as everyone interpreted it as rates will be hiked. But there are two questions: by how much, and will it help at all?” he added.

Investors and analyst claim the central bank needs to raise rates by at least 4 percent, while some suggest a 10 percent raise is needed to avoid further drops in the currency, which analysts warned would open the lira to further pressure.

“In such a scenario, Turkish residents would want to hold more FX (foreign exchange) rather than Turkish lira … to protect their savings. That is a big risk to the currency,” Demir said.

Already, 40 percent of individual accounts in banks are in foreign currency.

However, an aggressive increase in rates may not be enough to rein in inflation or defend the lira, analysts warned.

“The concerns are on multiple fronts,” Demir said. 

“What Turkish policy needs to do is straightforward,” he added. “They need to hike rates, tighten fiscal policy (cut government spending) and ease tensions with the United States, removing the threat of further sanctions by releasing (American) pastor (Andrew) Brunson.

“There is a way out of this, but it’s not obvious that the policymakers will take that way,” Demir said.

US trade tariffs 

Last month’s imposition of trade tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump over the ongoing detention of Brunson was the trigger for the latest rout in the Turkish currency. Brunson is on trial on terrorism charges, a case dismissed by Washington as politically motivated.

Ignoring U.S. pressure, Turkey’s top appeals court judge, Rustu Cirit, on Monday supported Erdogan’s refusal to release Brunson, saying the pastor’s release is a matter only for the courts.

“To use brute force to reverse this fact, which is a basic principle of contemporary democracies and law of nations, would mean weakening human rights, rather than strengthening them,” Cirit said.

Trump is warning of further sanctions against Turkey if Brunson is not released. American regulatory authorities are considering reportedly a multibillion-dollar fine against Turkish state-controlled Halkbank for violations of Iranian sanctions.

Analysts warn the financial implications of an escalation of U.S.-Turkish tensions will continue to undermine confidence in the lira. However, Erdogan continues to take a robust stance against Washington, insisting the Turkish economy remains strong.

“The list of concerns is long, definitely, but the chief concern I have right now is the policymakers. They need to accept first that there is a significant problem that needs to be addressed,” Demir said. “But we heard this morning from finance minister (Berat) Albayrak that short-term fluctuations in inflation are normal. ”

Turkey already seems set to face a severe recession. Similar depreciations of the currency in past decades was accompanied by a double-digit contraction of the economy. 

Analysts warn the stress on the economy will only grow.

“Each day, Ankara lingers or prevaricates the likelihood of a disaster event increases. Right now, the threat is very low, it’s manageable. But as winter approaches, the likelihood increases exponentially,” Yesilada said.
…

British Prime Minister Theresa May got plenty of attention for her trip to Africa last week. Videos of her dancing — one with secondary students who greeted her in South Africa and another with her dancing with young scouts in Kenya — went viral.

But May’s dance-floor diplomacy didn’t overshadow her larger mission in Africa, which was to forge business ties for a post-Brexit Britain. In Cape Town, she pledged more than $5 billion to support African markets and also promised that her country would overtake the United States to become the biggest investor in Africa out of the G-7 countries.

Cheta Nwanze, an analyst at the Lagos-based research firm SBM Intelligence says Britain is desperately trying to find new trade partners. “Because Brexit isn’t working out as it had expected,” he said. “Brexit is seven or eight months away now and they’re so many contentious issues that will need to be resolved.”

Playing catch up to China

German Chancellor Angela Merkel made her own recent foray to Africa, visiting Senegal, Nigeria and Ghana, also seeking economic benefit. China has played the role of Africa’s largest trading partner for the past nine consecutive years, and both Britain and Germany have a lot of catching up to do.

According to British government figures, the country’s total trade with Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya — the countries May visited — amounted to $16.9 billion in 2016. That’s less than 2.5 percent of the $712 billion in goods and services that Britain exchanged with the European Union in the same year, Reuters reported.

Meanwhile, Germany declared 2017 a key year for its Africa policy and hosted African presidents in Berlin at a G-20 summit to boost private investment. However, to date, Germany only has about 1,000 companies that are active in Africa.

In comparison, China has 10,000 firms in Africa. It has financed more than 3,000 infrastructure projects on the continent, building thousands of kilometers of highways, generating thousands of megawatts of electricity and creating thousands of jobs across the continent.

“China is challenging all the Western countries, even the United States. China has no historical background of colonialism [in Africa] so many Africans prefer working with China,” said Bakary Sambe, a development and peace studies analyst in Senegal.

This week, several African presidents are in China for the 2018 Forum for Africa-China Cooperation, which China’s Foreign Minister Wang Li described as the biggest summit of all time.

But, Nii Akwuetteh, a prominent independent Ghanaian policy analyst based in Washington, D.C., recommends African politicians, businesses and civil society members be wary of both the West and the East.

“If I had my way, they would be far more vigilant and tougher against Merkel, against May, and even against the Chinese, because all these global powers are rushing to Africa now and they all claim that they love Africa and they want to help. Well, we all heard that before and it led to slavery and it led to colonialism,” he said.

Stopping migration

Akwuetteh said May and Merkel are motivated in part by a desire to stop the waves of African migrants showing up on Europe’s shores.

“They are doing this because their populace don’t like Africans. Merkel is very clear, that’s why she’s doing this — we want to create jobs in Africa so you all don’t come to Europe,” he said.

Merkel said she wants to work with these governments to tackle issues the three countries are struggling with, such as the Boko Haram insurgency and widespread unemployment.

One of the agreement she said was an MOU signed between German automaker Volkswagen and partners in Ghana and Nigeria. Volkswagen announced last week it would assemble cars in Ghana and make Nigeria an automotive hub.

Ayisha Osori, the head of the Open Society Initiative for West Africa, commends this effort and says African leaders need to acknowledge the reasons why citizens are risking their lives to flee.

“It’s a good deal to create more jobs to keep people away from migrating, coming over to Europe in less numbers. Looking at the people who try to cross the desert, that go by sea or by boat, what are they running away from? What is it about their lives that is making them to take such dangerous journeys?” Osori asks.

U.S. role?

In this scramble for Africa, the United States looms in the background, contributing mostly military support. The Brookings Institution says U.S.-Africa relations will not reach their potential if the executive office fails to provide diplomatic and policy leadership.

But U.S. President Donald Trump has shown little interest in the continent and angered many Africans with offensive remarks.

Though Trump has no announced plans of going to Africa, first lady Melania Trump announced in August that she will visit — without the president.
…

Pope Francis on Monday recommended silence and prayer to counter those who “only seek scandal,” division and destruction in what appeared to be an indirect response to allegations that he had covered up for a U.S. cardinal embroiled in sex abuse scandals.

Italian Archbishop Carlo Maria Vigano, a former papal envoy in Washington, stunned the faithful last month by claiming Francis allegedly lifted unconfirmed Vatican sanctions against disgraced U.S. prelate Theodore McCarrick and demanding that the pope resign.

“With people lacking good will, with people who only seek scandal, who seek only division, who seek only destruction, even within the family — silence, prayer” is the path to take, Francis said in his homily during morning Mass at the Vatican hotel where he lives.

Hours after Vigano made the claim in a statement given to conservative Catholic news media, Francis had told journalists seeking his response that he “won’t say a word” about the claims by the disgruntled former diplomat.

In his homily Monday, Francis indicated he takes his cue from God on whether to speak out or not about Vigano’s allegations.

“May the Lord give us the grace to discern when we should speak and when we should stay silent,” Francis said. “This applies to every part of life: to work, at home, in society.”

“Truth is meek, truth is silent, truth isn’t noisy,” the pope said in his Mass remarks.

Vigano has contended that while Benedict XVI was pope, he had sanctioned McCarrick, including avoiding public life, but that Francis later allegedly lifted the punishment.

During the years that McCarrick was purportedly under sanctions, the cardinal celebrated public Masses and attended other public functions, even before Francis became pontiff. Vigano claimed that he told Francis, shortly after he was elected pontiff in 2013, that McCarrick had been given sanctions by Benedict.

Weeks before Vigano went public with his claims, Francis in July yanked McCarrick’s cardinal rank after U.S. church panel deemed credible the American had sexually abused an altar boy. McCarrick has denied wrongdoing in that case.

It was the first time that a prelate had lost his cardinal’s rank in a sex abuse scandal, and the move was widely viewed as an indication that Francis was trying to make good on promises to crack down on clerics who either were found to have abused minors or adults or who covered up for priests who did.

The Vatican let several days pass before attempting to knock down some of Vigano’s contentions. On Sunday night, a former Vatican spokesman, the Rev. Federico Lombardi, and his English-language assistant, the Rev. Thomas Rosica, jointly disputed the prelate’s claims about an embarrassing encounter he arranged with U.S. anti-marriage crusader Kim Davis during Francis’ visit in the United States in 2015.

Vigano last week had insisted that Francis knew very well who Davis was and that the Vatican’s top brass had given advance approval.

Rosica said Vigano had told them that Francis had chewed him out for “deceiving” him about the meeting and for having not told the pope that Davis had been married four times. Lombardi, who served as spokesman for both Benedict and for a few years also for Francis, contended that the papal envoy should have figure out that the meeting would have caused a furor.

The Davis meeting contributed to chilly relations between Francis and the former diplomat.

Following decades of complaints by faithful in the United States and elsewhere that they were sexually abused as minors or adults by priests, or that their abusers were quietly shuffled from parish to parish, the church, including at the Vatican, has been struggling to effectively deal with the problem, including the role of higher-ups in hiding the abuses.
…

A key opponent of high-tech, automated weapons known as “killer robots” is blaming countries like the U.S. and Russia for blocking consensus at a U.N.-backed conference, where most countries wanted to ensure that humans stay at the controls of lethal machines.

Coordinator Mary Wareham of the Campaign to Stop Killer Robots spoke Monday after experts from dozens of countries agreed before dawn Saturday at the U.N. in Geneva on 10 “possible guiding principles” about such “Lethal Automated Weapons Systems.”

Point 2 said: “Human responsibility for decisions on the use of weapons systems must be retained since accountability cannot be transferred to machines.”

Wareham said such language wasn’t binding, adding that “it’s time to start laying down some rules now.”

Members of the LAWS conference will meet again in November.

 
…

The U.N. refugee agency says people smugglers are taking greater risks to ferry their human cargo toward Europe as Libya’s coast guard intercepts more and more boats carrying migrants, increasing the likelihood that those on board may die during the Mediterranean journeys.

That’s one of the key findings from the latest UNHCR report about efforts to reach Europe. The report, released early Monday and titled “Desperate Journeys,” says that even though the number of crossings and deaths has plunged compared to recent years, the voyage is more deadly in percentage terms for those who venture across.

The report says 2,276 people died last year while trying to cross, or one death for every 42 arrivals.

This year, it’s 1,095 deaths, or one out of every 18 arrivals. In June alone, the proportion hit one death for every seven arrivals.

On the Central Mediterranean route so far this year, there have been 10 separate incidents in which 50 or more people died — most after departing from Libya. Seven of those incidents have been since June alone, UNHCR said.

“The reason the traffic has become more deadly is that the traffickers are taking more risk, because there is more surveillance exercised by the Libyan coast guards,” said Vincent Cochetel, UNHCR’s special envoy for the central Mediterranean. “They are trying to cut the costs: It costs them more to keep those people here longer in their warehouses, under captivity.”

Libyan authorities intercepted or rescued 18,400 people between August last year and July this year — a 38-percent increase from the same period of 2016 and 2017. Arrivals by sea from Libya to Europe plummeted 82 percent in those comparable periods, to 30,800 in the more recent one.

UNHCR says a growing worry these days is deaths on land by people trying to get to Libya in the first place, or getting stuck in squalid, overcrowded detention centers: Many get returned there after failing to cross by sea to Europe.

“The problems after disembarkation (is that) those people are sent back to detention centers, and many disappear,” Cochetel said. “Many are sold to militias, and to traffickers, and people employing them without paying them.”

He said the drop in departures means that traffickers attempt to “monetize their investment, which means they have to exploit more people. That results in more cases of slavery, forced labor, prostitution of those people — because they (smugglers) want to make money on those people.”

Would-be workers and migrants are still pouring into Libya: Some are fleeing injustice, abuse or autocrats in their home countries further south in Africa. Others are looking for work in the oil industry or agriculture.

“I think you have more deaths on land,” Cochetel said, referring to treks across the desert in Sudan, Algeria, Chad and Niger. “Many people in Libya are reporting having seeing people dead in the desert on the way to Libya.”

In Libya, instability continues even seven years after the fall of Moammar Gadhafi. French medical aid group Doctors Without Borders said Friday that fighting between rival militias in Tripoli, the capital, has endangered the lives of people trapped there and worsened humanitarian needs — especially at migrant detention centers.

Cochetel said Europe — where some countries have shown “appalling” squabbles about who would take in rescue ships carrying migrants — should look at the root causes of such journeys. European populations need to shun anti-migrant rhetoric and realize that figures are down sharply, and migrant flows are clearly manageable at current levels, he said.

“Europe has to show the lead, has to be exemplary in its response, but it’s quite clear that it’s already too late when the people are in Libya,” he said. “We need to work downstream in country of first asylum, in country of origin, and that takes time.”

 
…

Human Rights Watch is calling for an immediate end to all arms sales to Saudi Arabia in the aftermath of the bombing of a schoolbus last month that killed 51 people, including 40 children.

In a report released Sunday, the HRW called the attack an “apparent war crime,” saying it only added to the Saudi-led coalition’s “already gruesome track record of killing civilians at weddings, funerals, hospitals and schools in Yemen.”

The coalition, which has the support of the United States, has been fighting the Houthi rebels since March 2015. The coalition backs Yemen’s internationally recognized government of Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi and aims to restore it to power.

The HRW report comes just a day after the coalition said it has accepted the conclusions of its investigative body that there were “mistakes” made in the attack, including failing to take measures to minimize collateral damage.

The coalition vowed to “take all the legal measures to hold accountable those who were proven to have committed mistakes” once it officially receives the findings. It also pledged to coordinate with Yemen’s government to compensate civilians.

The U.S. State Department on Sunday welcomed the coalition’s statement as “an important first step toward full transparency and accountability.”

But, Bill Van Esveld, senior children’s rights researcher for HRW, urged the U.S. and other countries to “immediately stop weapons sales to Saudi Arabia and support strengthening the independent U.N. inquiry into violations in Yemen, or risk being complicit in future atrocities.”
…

The archbishop of Philadelphia has asked Pope Francis to cancel a bishops’ conference focusing on youth in the wake of the child sex abuse crisis roiling the Catholic Church.

A spokesman for the archdiocese confirmed Saturday that Archbishop Charles Chaput made the request by letter, but he declined further comment, The Philadelphia Inquirer reported.

The Youth Synod, which would include bishops from the around the world, has been planned for two years and its website says it is to be focused on “young people, the faith and vocational discernment.” An international panel of young people is expected to join the council of bishops for the event.

“I have written the Holy Father and called on him to cancel the forthcoming synod on young people,” Chaput said at a conference Thursday at St. Charles Borromeo Seminary, according to LifeSite News, a conservative Catholic website. “Right now, the bishops would have absolutely no credibility in addressing this topic.”

Instead, Chaput asked that the synod be refocused on the life of bishops.

A nearly 900-page grand jury report released last month said more than 300 Catholic priests abused at least a thousand children over the past seven decades in six Pennsylvania dioceses, and senior figures in the church hierarchy systematically covered up complaints.

A description of the purpose of the Oct. 3-28 synod at the Vatican begins “Taking care of young people is not an optional task for the Church, but an integral part of her vocation and mission in history.”
…

A new U.S. study finds that when temperatures around the world start creeping up, insects that eat crops will not only become hungrier, their numbers will grow. Scientists say this will mean more insect damage to wheat, corn and rice crops, and therefore less food on the dinner table. VOA’s Mariama Diallo reports.
…

Russia is not giving up on efforts to destabilize Afghanistan and drive divisions between the United States and its coalition partners, according to the outgoing commander of U.S. forces in the country.

The commander of U.S. Forces-Afghanistan and of Operation Resolute Support, General John Nicholson, is scheduled to step down Sunday after serving in the position for more than two years.

But before relinquishing command, he took time to cast doubts on Russia’s intentions in the region, despite recent overtures from Moscow to help the Taliban reconcile with the Afghan government.

“We know that Russia is attempting to undercut our military gains and years of military progress in Afghanistan, and make partners question Afghanistan’s stability,” Nicholson said in an email to Voice of America, following on questions from his August 22 briefing with Pentagon reporters.

“It is no secret that Russia seeks any opportunity it can find to drive a wedge between the United States and our Central Asian partners, including Afghanistan,” Nicholson added.

Aid to Taliban

U.S. and Afghan officials have previously accused Russia of meddling in Afghanistan by providing Taliban insurgents with both weapons and training.

Moscow has rejected the allegations, saying it has only political ties with the Taliban. Still, Russia has faced growing suspicion from the U.S. and its allies, who say the Kremlin has been increasingly working to expand its influence in Afghanistan and beyond.

Most recently, the U.S. and Russia have been competing over efforts to kick-start peace negotiations between the Taliban and the U.S.-backed Afghan government.

Russia was set to host both parties, along with the U.S. and other countries, for talks starting September 4, but was forced to postpone after Afghan President Ashraf Ghani declined the invitation.

The U.S. also has been hoping for talks between the government and the Taliban.

“We talk about an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned reconciliation process,” U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis said during a briefing with reporters this past week. “We believe that the best way to get there is to ensure Taliban recognizes they can’t win on the battlefield, they must negotiate.”

But while U.S. officials have touted what they see are signs of progress, including increased support for a peace process from various sectors of the Afghan population, the government’s recent cease-fire offer to the Taliban appears to have fallen on deaf ears.

Meanwhile, U.S. officials have been angered by what they see as Russian efforts to derail peace and stabilization efforts with disinformation campaigns.

​Charges repeated

Just over a week ago, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova raised concerns about “unidentified” helicopters flying missions in support of fighters for the Islamic State terror group, also known as IS-Khorasan or IS-K, in the northern Sar-e-Pul province, suggesting the U.S. and NATO might be responsible.

“Who is arming the terrorists and secretly creating their bases?” she asked. “Why is this happening if NATO command is effectively in control of Afghanistan’s airspace?”

Pentagon officials rejected the suggestion of U.S. or NATO involvement as “completely untrue,” noting it was not the first time Moscow had levied such charges.

“As they [Russia] perpetuate false narratives about ISIS-K, the United States and the Afghan Special Security Forces eliminated the Jowzjan ISIS-K enclave and are killing ISIS-K leaders and fighters in Nangarhar,” Nicholson said in his statement to VOA.

Still, the outgoing commander said he held out hope Russia could play a constructive role. 

“We have shared interests with Russia in Afghanistan — peace, counterterrorism and counternarcotics,” Nicholson said. “We hope to see Russia support Afghanistan and the NATO-led coalition in these areas going forward.”

VOA’s Ayaz Gul contributed to this report.
…

No one knows what will happen in the next 48 hours in Chemnitz, the Saxon town which this week saw the worst rioting in Germany in three decades, with mobs of far-right supporters and soccer hooligans overwhelming local police and beating anyone in the streets who appeared to be a foreigner while flashing illegal Nazi salutes.

Federal authorities and neighboring German states have sent police reinforcements to Saxony to confront any repeat of the violence seen on Monday, when more than 6,000 anti-migrant protesters rallied to vent their fury at the stabbing of a 35-year-old German man, Daniel Hillig, during a brawl with a pair of asylum-seekers from Syria and Iraq.

The stabbing came at the end of a street festival celebrating the 875th anniversary of Chemnitz, a declining industrial town of drab Communist-era apartment blocks with a population of 250,000.

With four anti-migrant rallies scheduled for Saturday alone — one organized by Alternative for Germany (AfD), the far-right party that last year became the largest opposition faction in the German parliament, the Bundestag, as well as counterprotests planned by left wing groups — police are preparing for the worst.

So, too, are many store owners and the 20,000 migrants who live in Chemnitz, nestled in the foothills of the Ore Mountains, which during the Communist era was known as Karl Marx Stadt. Migrants contacted on social media say they fear for the worst.

“I won’t be going outside today [Saturday],” said Farid, a 46-year-old Moroccan who asked that his full name not be published. “And neither will my wife nor daughters,” he said.

“Will we ever be safe again?” he asked. Like many other migrants, what shocked him the most was spotting neighbors among the rioters screaming for foreigners to go home. “I wasn’t born here but my two daughters were — this is their home,” he added. He says the rioting this week, the pitched street battles between overwhelmed local police and the protesters and the hunting down of foreigners for beatings, have convinced him that a tipping point may have been reached in Chemnitz and Saxony — and “possibly in Germany as well.”

Simmering tensions

He’s not alone in harboring such a fear.

Alara, a 36-year-old Turkish woman, says she, too, has been shocked by the participation in the violent anti-migrant protests of middle-class German “neighbors and co-workers.” “I thought they were my friends,” she laments.

In the middle of the week, a shocked German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed her fear that far right rioting, along with Hitler salutes that are banned in the country, and the confidence protesters demonstrated in flaunting their affection for a dark German past, represented a threat to the very underpinnings of the post-Second World War state.

“There is video footage of chases, rioting and hatred on the street. And that has nothing to do with our constitutional state,” she said. Tensions over migrants have roiled German politics since 2015, when Merkel announced an open-door policy for war refugees from the Middle East that saw more than 1.2 million admitted.  

Merkel’s controversial immigration policy fueled the rise of the AfD. The group’s electoral performance in last year’s elections, in which it seized nearly 100 seats in the Bundestag, marked a startling new phase in the party’s progress from the fringe of German politics closer to the center of power in Berlin. For far right opponents, the AfD’s election success, built on menacing social media propaganda playing on fears of Islam and Muslim criminality and on foreigners in general, represented a door opening on a German past they thought long buried.

The anti-migrant violence this week in Chemnitz — and the threat of more to come — is prompting questions about whether that door is opening even wider in Germany.

Well organized

Aside from the participation of “ordinary” locals, officials acknowledge they also were taken aback by the speed with which the anti-migrant protesters were reinforced, as well as the level of organization and coordination displayed by a variety of far right groups, including AfD, Pegida and the National Democratic Party. These groups glorify the Third Reich and have averted efforts by the government to ban it.

Saxony’s interior minister, Roland Woller, told media this week that known soccer hooligan groups with strong ties to the far right — and some with solidarity links to Russian fan-clubs and martial arts groups —  helped to mobilize people from across Germany and transport them to join the street battle.

German officials blame orchestrated “fake news” peddled by far right groups on social media sites for helping to stoke the rioting that broke out Monday. “We have to acknowledge that mobilization on the internet was stronger than in the past,” said Michael Kretschmer, the state prime minister of Saxony. The trouble was fueled partially by false claims that the stabbed man had intervened to protect a woman from being raped by asylum-seekers.

The showdown in Chemnitz could continue well into next week. A concert is planned for Monday by a left-wing band. But it is the planned Saturday night marches that now have the focus. In a statement announcing its march, the AfD called Daniel Hillig “the next, avoidable victim of an irresponsible government policy that accepts the multiple deaths of natives with icy coldness.”

“The cartel media have tried to make Chemnitz, the city of the victims, into a city of the perpetrators,” the AfD statement said.

AfD senses a huge opportunity in Chemnitz, say analysts, and is determined to stoke Germany’s political divisions over migration and national identity, hoping the agitation will translate into greater electoral gains in the future.  

 
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