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Britain’s May: It’s My Deal, No Deal, or No Brexit at All

Prime Minister Theresa May said Thursday that British lawmakers faced a choice ahead of a vote on her Brexit deal: approving her deal or facing an exit with no deal or even the reversal of Brexit.

May said she was speaking to lawmakers about giving parliament a bigger role in whether the Northern Irish backstop arrangement would be triggered, though she gave few details.

May said some in parliament were trying to frustrate Brexit and that she did not think another referendum on Brexit was the right course.

“There are three options: one is to leave the European Union with a deal … the other two are that we leave without a deal or that we have no Brexit at all,” May told BBC radio. “It’s clear that there are those in the House of Commons who want to frustrate Brexit … and overturn the vote of the British people and that’s not right.”

May repeatedly sidestepped questions on whether she would delay the Dec. 11 vote but did hint at possible concessions on the Northern Irish backstop.

“There are questions about how decisions are taken as to whether we go into the backstop, because that isn’t an automatic,” she said. “The question is: Do we go into the backstop? Do we extend what I call the implementation period?”

When asked repeatedly what her “Plan B” would be if her deal was rejected, she did not directly answer the questions.

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Russia Warns Cyprus Against Allowing US Military to Deploy There

Russia on Wednesday warned authorities in Cyprus not to allow the U.S. military to deploy on their territory, saying such a move would draw a Russian reaction and result in “dangerous and destabilizing consequences” for the Mediterranean island.

Maria Zakharova, a spokesman for Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said Moscow had become aware of what she called “anti-Russian plans” involving Cyprus and the U.S. military which she said was eyeing setting up forward operating bases for its troops there.

“We’re getting information from various sources that the United States is actively studying options to build up its military presence on Cyprus,” Zakharova told a news briefing in Moscow.

“The aim is not being hidden – to counter growing Russian influence in the region in the light of the successful operation by the Russian military in Syria.”

There was no immediate U.S. response to her comments.

Prodromos Prodromou, a spokesman for the Cypriot government, said the island had no desire to further militarize.

“We want to clarify that it has never been our aim, nor do we seek the militarization of Cyprus,” he said, responding to Zakharova’s remarks.

“The Republic of Cyprus, because of its advantageous geographical position, offers facilities for missions of a humanitarian nature, and then only in cases where countries make a request or have a relevant MOU (memorandum of understanding) with the Republic.”

Zakharova said a U.S. delegation had inspected potential sites for the bases and that Washington was engaged in intensive talks with Nicosia on expanding military cooperation.

Cyprus is a popular destination for Russian tourists and capital and many wealthy Russian business people bank or own property there. The island, a former British colony, hosts two British military bases. The United States has an embassy in Nicosia.

Cyprus was split by a Turkish invasion in 1974 that followed a Greek-inspired coup. Northern Cyprus is now a Turkish Cypriot state of about 300,000 people that is recognized only by Turkey.

Greek Cypriots run the island’s internationally recognized government which represents the whole island in the European Union.

Cypriot media said the island had recently appointed a military attache to Washington.

Zakharova said Russia had repeatedly warned Cypriot authorities against allowing the island to be further militarized.

“It being drawn into U.S. and NATO plans in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East will inevitably lead to dangerous and destabilizing consequences for Cyprus itself,” she said.

“In Moscow we can’t ignore the anti-Russian element in these (U.S.) plans and in the event that they are implemented we will be forced to take counter measures.”

 

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EU Steps Up Fight Against ‘Fake News’ Ahead of Elections

European Union authorities want internet companies including Google, Facebook and Twitter to file monthly reports on their progress eradicating “fake news” campaigns from their platforms ahead of elections next year.

Officials from the EU’s executive Commission unveiled the measures Wednesday as part of an action plan to counter disinformation in the lead up to the continent-wide vote in the spring.

The internet companies will have to submit their reports from January until May, when hundreds of millions of people in 27 EU member countries are scheduled to vote for 705 lawmakers in the bloc’s parliament.

The Commission singled out Russia.

“There is strong evidence pointing to Russia as a primary source of disinformation in Europe,” said Commission Vice President Andrus Ansip.

Many EU member countries have taken action to combat disinformation, but now “we need to work together and coordinate our efforts,” he said.

Russian authorities have repeatedly rejected Western accusations of sponsoring disinformation campaigns and described them as part of Western efforts to smear the country.

Other measures include a new “rapid alert system,” beefing up budgets, and adding expert staff and data analysis tools.

Google, Facebook, Twitter and browser maker Mozilla are the companies that so far have signed up to a voluntary EU code of conduct on fighting disinformation.

They’ll be expected to report on how they’re carrying out commitments they made under the code, including their work on making political advertising more transparent and how many fake and bot accounts they have identified and shut down. They’ll also provide updates on their cooperation with fact-checkers and academic researchers to uncover disinformation campaigns.

Google, which declined to comment, has tightened up requirements for political ads in the EU, including requiring information on who paid for them and for buyers to verify their identities. Facebook, which did not respond to a request for comment, did the same for political ads in Britain.

U.S. technology giants have committed millions of dollars, tens of thousands of employees and what they say are their best technical efforts into fighting fake news, propaganda and hate that has proliferated on their digital platforms.

“We need to see the internet platforms step up and make some real progress on their commitments,” said Julian King, the EU security commissioner. If there’s not enough headway, the Commission would consider other options including regulation, he said.

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EU ‘Willing to Help’ If May Loses — Up to a Point

If British Prime Minister Theresa May loses a vote in parliament on her divorce agreement with the European Union next week, EU leaders won’t rip it up and start negotiating again — but they could help her try to win a second bout.

That help, in the form of new clarifications of how the deal would work or perhaps even small tweaks to agreed text, will not convince the massed ranks of May’s opponents, who see the deal as either too much Brexit or too little. But it would be aimed at winning over enough waverers to salvage the accord.

Senior EU diplomats hope Tuesday’s vote will be close and May can return to parliament and win a second vote. In such a case they could consider helping her with “cosmetic” changes to the non-binding political agreement that accompanies the deal.

But even then, the legally binding text itself, which forms the crux of the debate in Britain, would be off limits to renegotiation. And if a ‘no’ vote in the British parliament is overwhelming, May would be on her own.

“Much will depend on the numbers. If she is short of 15, 30 or 40 votes, we could think of a gesture to let her try again,” said one EU official.

Failure in the vote will transform the quarterly EU summit to be held in Brussels next Thursday and Friday into a “Brexit crisis” meeting, officials say — though the timing may mean it is too soon for May to tell fellow leaders much more than that she has failed at her first attempt and needs more time.

Officials were unanimous in saying the “Pandora’s box” of going back to drafting the legal treaty on Britain’s withdrawal would not be opened.

“There will certainly be no re-negotiation of the withdrawal deal,” a second senior official said. “The question is what will the Brits do if the deal fails in their parliament. We are ready to support them.”

That could range from giving more time for May to find other ways to convince the parliament, to even helping Britain halt the Brexit process altogether, as many EU leaders have regularly said would be their ultimate preferred option.

Said another EU diplomat: “We could look at doing something cosmetic, relatively quickly. First, we would have to hear from May, see what they want,” said another EU diplomat. “And if she falls short of a hundred votes, it’s probably not doable.”

The EU has said repeatedly since sealing the deal with May last month that it would not renegotiate, and has backed May’s position that the offer is the best and only deal possible. Some countries, like France, have a particularly rigid line on offering additional concessions to Britain.

The non-binding political declaration has not been the main bone of contention in the British debate, and it is far from clear that tweaking it would change votes in the House of Commons. Still the suggestion that it could be tweaked may be seen as a sign of greater flexibility.

EU diplomats said unless there is a quick fix and a swift and successful second vote in the British parliament, the case would drag on into 2019, increasing pressure on all sides.

They thought it would be too soon for any major moves at the EU’s final summit of the year next week. It might not even be clear by then whether any changes Britain could seek from the EU would lean towards closer ties after Brexit, or the opposite.

“There is no majority for anything,” another EU official said, noting the difficulty of dealing with the May cabinet and the UK parliament, both split in half on Brexit.

EU diplomats said much would also depend on market reaction should the UK parliament vote down the tentative Brexit accord. If the pound comes under heavy pressure, the British parliament might be more likely to vote in favor the second time.

“There is more concern that May might fail at the first attempt. But we still think she will get it through, eventually,” said another EU diplomat dealing with Brexit.

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Prince Charles Highlights Christian Plight in Mideast, Pleads for Peace

Prince Charles, heir to the British throne, Tuesday highlighted the resilience of embattled Christians in the Middle East during a special service in Westminster Abbey, focusing on their plight in a region that’s turned increasingly harsh for Christianity. 

In a message of hope, Prince Charles said he had been privileged to have met so many “with such inspiring faith and courage” who were battling oppression and persecution, or who have fled to escape it. And he made a plea for peace, saying “extremism and division” are not inevitable.

“Throughout history, in these lands which are the cradle of faith for Jews, Muslims and Christians, communities of different beliefs have shown that it is possible to live side by side as neighbors and friends,” he said. 

“Indeed, I know that in Lebanon, Muslims join Christians at the Shrine of our Lady of Lebanon to honor her together. And I know that there are Muslim faith leaders who have spoken out in defense of Christian communities and of their contribution to the region.”

His remarks from the abbey’s pulpit were made during a service attended by the Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby, as well as Catholic, Jewish and Muslim religious leaders, including four patriarchs from the Middle East. 

“All three of the great Abrahamic faiths believe in a loving, just and merciful God who cares for creation, who cares for his creatures and who expects us to care for one another,” he said. 

Prince Charles has for many years encouraged interfaith dialogue and more recently has expressed  alarm about the challenges facing Christians in the region, especially their prospects in Syria and Iraq. 

Tuesday marked the first time he has spoken from the pulpit on the subject during a church service.

The service at the abbey had a dual aim — to celebrate the contribution Christians make to the region but also to publicize the dangers they face. 

Earlier this week, the Archbishop of Canterbury warned that Christians are on the brink of extinction in the Middle East, due to the threat of violence, murder, intimidation, prejudice and poverty. They are enduring “the worst situation since the Mongol invasions of the 13th century,” he said.

In the last few years, he said, Christians have been “butchered by Islamic State, and in many countries they find themselves squeezed between the upper and lower millstones of pressure from the society and the conflicts that bother the region.” He noted Iraq’s Christian population has decreased by half since 2003.

Archbishop Welby wrote in Britain’s The Sunday Telegraph newspaper: “Whether in large and flourishing communities, such as in Lebanon or Egypt, or smaller, struggling churches, they need the protection and encouragement of governments and people at home and abroad, and foreign popular expression. Without this, they cannot live out their vocation as citizens of their native lands in cooperation with other religious groups.”

A series of recent reports also have highlighted the predicament of Middle East Christians. Aid to the Church in Need, an international Catholic aid organization, documented significant violations of religious freedom in 38 countries, with many of the abuses caused by the spread of militant Islamism in parts of Africa, the Middle East and Asia. 

The charity estimates that the Christian population in Syria has fallen dramatically since 2011, from 1.4 million to an estimated 450,000, with many fleeing as their churches have been destroyed. IS both in Syria and Iraq targeted Christians, subjecting them to atrocities, forcible conversion and enslavement.

At the height of the Syrian conflict, Christian refugees in southeast Turkey — many of whom were retreading the steps of their forebears who fled persecution in southern Turkey during the last century — said they often were seen as fair game by an assortment of jihadists and Islamist rebels.

Some refugees said Christians were targeted because they were seen as being pro-Assad, although some of the persecution was motivated by greed, they said, with the better off being targeted first and their property divided by powerful local Sunni Muslim families.

In neighboring Iraq, the Christian minority made up of Assyrians, Chaldeans and Syriacs began to leave the country even before the appearance of IS. In the 1990s, hostility from the government of Saddam Hussein — and after his fall, sectarian killings and bombings, along with an increasingly aggressive Islamist political culture — forced two-thirds of Iraq’s Christians to flee overseas, slashing the population from a pre-Saddam estimate of 1.5 million to 300,000 today.

With the advance by IS militants into the Nineveh plains, the original Assyrian heartland where Christians speak Assyrian as their first language and Arabic their second, the exodus accelerated, according to local Christians. The Nineveh plains are where Thaddeus, an early Jewish convert to Christianity, is thought to have preached the Gospel, sent there by one of the apostles, Thomas.

Prince Charles highlighted the Nineveh plains in his remarks, saying earlier this year he had met a Dominican Sister from Nineveh who, in 2014, as IS advanced on the town of Qaraqosh, “got behind the wheel of a minibus crammed full of her fellow Christians and drove the long and dangerous road to safety.”

He added: “The Sister told me, movingly, of her return to Nineveh with her fellow Sisters three years later and of their despair at the utter destruction they found there. But like so many others, they put their faith in God, and today the tide has turned — nearly half of those displaced having gone back, to rebuild their homes and their communities. … This is the most wonderful testament to the resilience of humanity, and to the extraordinary power of faith to resist even the most brutal efforts to extinguish it.”

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Norway Worries Over Brazil Deforestation, Pays $70M to Amazon Fund

Norway will pay Brazil $70 million for reducing deforestation in the Amazon in 2017, but is concerned over a more recent surge in destruction of the world’s largest tropical rainforest, according to a Norwegian government statement.

Norway’s statement comes as right-wing President-elect Jair Bolsonaro threatens to pull out of the Paris Agreement on climate change and end environmental fines, spurring activist fears that deforestation could accelerate.

Bolsonaro also pushed the Brazilian government to withdraw its offer to host next year’s United Nations climate conference, saying foreign involvement in the Amazon threatened Brazil’s sovereignty.

Norway’s money will go to the Amazon Fund, a joint project also backed by Brazil and Germany, which helps pay for management of 1 million square km (247 million acres) of Amazon, a system for registering rural properties that aids in monitoring deforestation, and other services aimed at preserving the rainforest.

The annual funding is linked to Brazil’s success in reducing Amazon deforestation in the prior year. Deforestation fell 12 percent in August 2016 to July 2017, the period used to measure annual destruction.

Norway has cut its support for the fund in the past when deforestation spiked. Brazil last month reported a preliminary 13.7 percent rise in deforestation from August 2017 to July 2018. It was the highest level in a decade, signaling a potential impact on next year’s round of international funding.

“These figures will only be verified next year, but the preliminary estimate of increased deforestation gives reasons to concern both in Brazil and in Norway,” the Norwegian statement said.

Norway cut funding for the Amazon Fund to $35 million when deforestation last rose in 2016.

Brazil’s Amazon soaks up massive amounts of carbon dioxide and is seen as a bulwark against global climate change.

A representative for Bolsonaro’s transition team declined to immediately comment.

Norway said it looked forward to discussing cooperation on Amazon preservation with the new government.

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Dispute Over UN Migration Pact Fractures Belgian Government 

Belgium’s center-right government is fighting for its survival this week after the largest coalition party broke away from its three partners and said it would not back a global U.N.-backed migration pact.

The right-wing N-VA party started a social media campaign against the migration pact Tuesday, more than two months after Prime Minister Charles Michel pledged he would sign the pact for Belgium at a meeting next week in Marrakech, Morocco.

Instead of a coalition breakup, Michel announced late Tuesday that he would take the issue to parliament for a vote in the days to come.  

“I want parliament to have its say,” Michel said, staving off an immediate collapse of the government that has been in power for three years. “I have the intention to go to Marrakech and let the position of the parliament be known.”

Amid the N-VA upheaval, a Cabinet meeting was canceled Tuesday afternoon and Michel resumed consultations with vice premiers, looking for a way out of the crisis.  

Michel’s statement came at the end of a hectic day dominated by an anti-pact social media campaign by the N-VA.

Covered faces

The in-your-face campaign featured pictures of Muslim women with their faces covered and stated the U.N. pact focused on enabling migrants to retain the cultural practices of their homelands.

The party quickly withdrew the materials after the campaign received widespread criticism.

“We made an error,” N-VA leader Bart De Wever told VRT network.

De Wever apologized for the pictures of women wearing face-covering niqab in Western Europe, but immediately added that “these pictures are not fake. You can take pictures like this every day in Brussels. It is the stark reality.”

Remarking on the party’s withdrawn campaign, Christian Democrat Vice Premier Kris Peeters said: “I only have one word for this: indecent.”

The United Nations says the U.N.’s Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration will reduce human smuggling and trafficking.

The N-VA said it would force Belgium into making immigration concessions. “In our democracy, we decide. The sovereignty is with the people,” the party said in a statement.

Many experts said the accord is non-binding, but the N-VA said it still went too far and would give even migrants who were in Belgium illegally many additional rights.

The U.N. compact was finalized in July with only the U.S. staying out. Several European nations have since pulled out of signing the accord during the Dec. 10-11 conference in Morocco.  

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Women Parliamentarians Want Global Network to Tackle Discrimination

Female parliamentarians have called for a global network to combat issues including online abuse from the public, threats to their safety and discrimination by male colleagues.

A gathering of female members of parliament (MPs) from dozens of countries across the world highlighted shared challenges over gender equality in politics and urged a joint response, said a report on the conference published on Monday by British politician Harriet Harman.

“Women in parliament are pioneers,” said Harman, a member of the opposition Labour party who is the longest-serving female MP in the British lower house of parliament, in a statement. “We have been elected to sit alongside men in our legislatures. But we are, as yet, not on equal terms.”

Women make up less than a quarter of parliamentarians worldwide, according to data from the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU), an independent organization promoting democracy.

The past year has seen women question why they remain under-represented in public life and senior business positions in a global debate over gender roles after the #MeToo movement spurred a wider debate over their position in society.

​”Virtually all” taking part reported they had faced opposition to their participation in politics, including abuse online and threats in person, said the report on the first “Women MPs of the World Conference” in London last month.

Many said they had been “overtly discriminated against” by colleagues, including not being called on to speak and being blocked from taking roles on committees. 

Some younger MPs also said they had been sexually harassed by older male parliamentarians, while women also said they had faced criticism over their appearance in a way that men did not.

Harman said there was support for the conference to be repeated annually in different parliaments around the world so female MPs can continue to support each other and share ideas.

The push for a global network and future conferences to combat discrimination in politics were backed by democracy organizations.

“Sexism and sexual harassment … should not exist in politics, nor anywhere else,” Silvana Koch-Mehrin, the founder of the Women Political Leaders Global Forum, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. “We welcome every effort to combat such discriminatory practices.”

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Two More Jailed Catalan Separatist Leaders Join Hunger Strike

Two more jailed Catalan separatist leaders awaiting trial for their role in the region’s failed bid to secede from Spain joined a hunger strike started two days ago by two of their companions to protest against their treatment by Spanish courts.

After Catalonia declared independence last year, Madrid took direct control of the region and brought charges including misuse of public funds and rebellion against Catalan leaders, nine of whom are in jail awaiting trial.

Two of the leaders in custody, Josep Rull and Joaquim Forn, released a statement saying they would join the hunger strike started on Saturday by Jordi Sanchez and Jordi Turull.

“We also voluntarily renounce food intake as of 8:00 p.m. on Monday,” the men said in a statement.

The men said they were fasting to support Sanchez and Turull’s protest against the failure of Spanish courts to process numerous appeals in relation to their cases.

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Kosovo to Maintain Tariffs on Serbia Despite EU Pressure

Kosovo will keep its 100 percent tariffs on Serbian goods until Belgrade recognizes Pristina, Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj said Monday, defying calls by the European Union and United States for the tariffs to be abolished.

Last month Haradinaj’s government raised tariffs on locally-produced Serbian and Bosnian goods to 100 percent from 10 percent because Belgrade blocked Kosovo’s membership of Interpol.

The decision effectively halted trade between the two states and was criticized by EU and U.S. officials.

“The tariffs of 100 percent for the goods on Serbia and Bosnia are to protect national security and sovereignty,” Haradinaj wrote on his Facebook page after meeting EU’s Commissioner Johannes Hahn in Pristina.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said in a statement Pristina’s measures would lead to the destabilization of the region. He added that there would be no counter measures.

Improved relations is key to the efforts of both Serbia and Kosovo to join the European Union. Both countries agreed to a Brussels-sponsored dialogue in 2013, but little progress has been made. On Monday, Hahn met Vucic in Belgrade.

Kosovo’s mostly ethnic Albanian population declared independence from Serbia in 2008, a decade after a NATO bombing campaign to end the killing of Albanian civilians by Serb forces during a two-year insurgency.

It is now recognized by more than 110 nations but not by Serbia, Russia or five EU states. Belgrade and Moscow have blocked Kosovo from joining the United Nations.

According to official figures, Serbia’s exports to Kosovo amounted to 450 million euros, while imports amounted to 48 million euros.

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IFRC: Migrant Children Traveling Alone Are ‘Most Vulnerable People In the World’

A report by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) says thousands of unaccompanied children and children who have been separated from their families run the daily risk of sexual and gender-based violence as they travel along the world’s migratory trails. 

“A child who is migrating alone, without the love and protection of a parent, family member or guardian, is arguably one of the most vulnerable people in the world,” said Francesco Rocca, IFRC president.

The report entitled “Alone and Unsafe,” is being released ahead of next week’s meeting in Marrakech where governments are expected to adopt the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration. 

The compact, according to Rocca, “is a chance for governments to make life safer for tens of thousands – perhaps hundreds of thousands – of incredibly vulnerable children.” He said the agreement is “an opportunity that governments simply cannot afford to miss.”

The Alone and Unsafe report said when children travel alone, they are at high risk for being assaulted, sexually abused, raped, trafficked into sexual exploitation, or forced into “survival sex.” The children’s exposure to these threats is unrelenting and follows them from their countries of origin, through countries of transit and into countries of destination. 

The U.N. estimated in 2017 that there were at least 300,000 children traveling alone, but exact figures are not available. The IFRC said it believes the figure is much higher. 

“The number of children migrating alone or without their families has grown substantially and alarmingly in the past decade,” Rocca said. “Tragically, unacceptably, these children are easy prey for abusers, exploiters and traffickers.” 

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EU Migration Chief Urges Opponents of UN Pact to Reconsider

The European Union’s migration commissioner is calling on member countries that have turned against a U.N.-backed migration pact to reconsider their opposition.

A conference in Marrakech, Morocco on Dec. 10-11 is due to approve the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration, which was finalized in July with only the U.S. staying out. But the non-binding accord is drawing strong opposition from nationalists in Europe and elsewhere, and EU countries including Hungary, Austria and Poland have since pulled out or expressed reservations.

EU Migration Commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos was quoted Monday as telling German daily Die Welt that he doesn’t understand opposition to the pact, which he said forces nothing on anyone. He urged countries rejecting the accord to rethink their opposition in the coming days and join up.

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NATO Set to Meet as Ukraine Demands Support Against Russian Attacks

Russia’s recent attack on Ukrainian naval vessels will likely top the agenda at a NATO meeting this week as the alliance searches for a robust response in the wake of the Kremlin’s latest act of aggression on Europe’s borders. 

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is scheduled to join other foreign ministers for the two-day meeting in Brussels starting Tuesday, where American demands for more military spending from NATO allies will also be discussed. 

Kyiv has warned the likelihood of an all-out war with its neighbor is dangerously high after Russia fired on its vessels last week in the Azov Sea and detained several Ukrainian naval personnel. Moscow has blamed Ukraine for what it called a ‘provocation.’ 

Attending a ceremony to mark the acquisition of new military hardware Saturday, Ukraine’s president urged allies to step forward.

WATCH: Ukraine asks for NATO response

​“This is an enormous threat and together, with our allies, we are searching for an appropriate response to it,” President Petro Poroshenko said. 

The Ukrainian leader wants NATO to send warships to the Azov Sea, which is supposed to be shared between Moscow and Kyiv under a 2003 agreement. Ukraine says Russian warships have blockaded the Kerch Strait off Crimea – the territory it forcibly annexed in 2014 – effectively cutting off Ukrainian Black Sea ports. 

NATO is under pressure to offer a robust response at Tuesday’s foreign ministers’ summit. But speaking last week, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg gave no indication that the alliance is prepared to risk a naval confrontation with Russia.

“We call on Russia to ensure unhindered access to Ukrainian ports and allow freedom of navigation for Ukraine in the sea of Azov and Kerch Strait,” Stoltenberg told reporters. 

Following the incident in the Azov Sea, U.S. President Donald Trump cancelled a planned meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin at the G20 summit.

Writing on Twitter last week, Trump wrote, “The European Union, for many years, has taken advantage of us on trade, and then they don’t live up to their military commitment through NATO. Things must change fast!” 

Along with military spending, NATO foreign ministers will also discuss Ukraine and Georgia’s ambitions to join the alliance. Georgia’s new President-elect Salome Zurabishvili has already staked out a tough line on Russia, describing it as an “unpredictable occupying power” – and vowing to push forward her country’s bid to join NATO. 

“We can ask and we’ve been doing that – membership and that is our direction without any alternative – but on that road we can get much more concrete steps and I intend to be more demanding partner for Europeans as well as with our NATO partners,” Zurabishvili told the Reuters news agency. 

The West faces a balancing act in dealing with an increasingly unpredictable Kremlin, says Russia analyst Nicholas Redman of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. 

“It’s partly about exploiting some of the capacities that Western states have in order to defend themselves. That will require new approaches. It’s also I think about deciding where the points of potential dialogue should come.”

Foreign ministers are also due to discuss Operation Resolute Support in Afghanistan, in which about 16,000 personnel from 39 NATO member states and partner countries are involved in training and assisting Afghan forces. 

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Georgian Opposition Protests Alleged Election Irregularities

Tens of thousands of people protested in Georgia Sunday against last week’s run-off presidential election, which they believe were rigged.

Backed by the ruling party, Salome Zurabishvili was elected Georgia’s first female president by 59 percent of the vote. But opposition leaders and protesters allege vote-buying, voter intimidation, and other irregularities as they packed the streets of Tbilisi, the Georgian capital.

Zurabishvili’s opponent Grigol Vashadze addressed the crowd in Tbilisi, calling the election a “criminal farce” and saying that the opposition “demands an early parliamentary election to be held in Georgia.”

Vashadze is backed by allies of former president Mikhail Saakashvili, who is currently in self-imposed exile in Amsterdam.

Saakashvili addressed the crowd via video link Sunday, met by cheers and chanting of his name.

“Georgia’s future is being born on this square today,” he said.

The president’s role in Georgia is largely ceremonial, but the results of the election may be a good indicator of which parties will maintain or seize power in the 2020 parliamentary elections.

Zurabishvili, 66, ran as an independent even though she has the backing of Georgian Dream, headed by former prime minister and billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili.

She has been criticized over her background and been branded a traitor by some detractors over comments they interpreted as suggesting that Georgia started the 2008 war with Russia.

Zurabishvili was born in France and served as a French diplomat before beginning her political career in Georgia.

 

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Macron Tours Damaged Arc de Triomphe after Paris Hit by Riot

French President Emmanuel Macron visited the graffiti-damaged Arc de Triomphe monument and held an emergency meeting on security Sunday, a day after central Paris was hit by France’s worst riot in a generation.

 

Macron, who was meeting with his prime minister and interior and environment ministers, has vowed that those responsible for the violence and the damages will pay for their actions. His tour of France’s beloved monument came just hours after he flew back from the G-20 summit in Argentina.

 

Macron paid tribute to the Unknown Soldier from World War I whose tomb is under the monument. He then headed to a nearby avenue where activists wearing yellow jackets had torched cars, smashed windows, looted stores and battled police on Saturday. There he met with firefighters, police officers and restaurant owners.

 

Paris police said Sunday that 133 people had been injured and 412 had been arrested as protesters trashed the streets of the capital during a demonstration Saturday against rising taxes and the high cost of living.

 

Charred cars, broken windows and downed fences from the riot littered many of the city’s most popular tourist areas on Sunday, including major avenues near the Arc de Triomphe, streets around the famed Champs-Elysees Avenue, and the Tuileries garden. Graffiti was also sprayed on many stores and buildings.

 

Activists wearing yellow jackets had torched cars, smashed windows, looted stores, threw rocks at police and tagged the Arc de Triomphe with multi-colored graffiti. French police responded with tear gas and water cannon, closing down dozens of streets and Metro stations as they tried to contain the riot.

 

Police said 23 police officers were among the injured and 378 of the arrested have been put in police custody.

 

By Sunday morning, Paris city employees were cleaning up the graffiti on the Arc de Triomphe. One slogan read: “Yellow jackets will triumph” — a reference to the fluorescent yellow vests that protesters wore to demand relief for France’s beleaguered workers.

 

Government spokesman Benjamin Griveaux said Saturday’s violence was due to extremists who hijacked the protest, people who came “to loot, break and hit police forces.” He was asked why thousands of French police couldn’t prevent the damage, especially to the Arc de Triomphe.

 

“Yesterday we made a choice … to protect people before material goods,” Griveaux told French broadcaster BFM TV on Sunday.

 

It was the third straight weekend of clashes in Paris involving activists dressed in the yellow vests of a new protest movement and France’s worst urban violence since at least 2005. The scene in Paris contrasted sharply with protests elsewhere in France on Saturday that were mostly peaceful.

“It’s difficult to reach the end of the month. People work and pay a lot of taxes and we are fed up,” said Rabah Mendez, a protester marched peacefully Saturday in Paris.

 

The demonstrators say Macron’s government does not care about the problems of ordinary people. The grassroots protests began Nov. 17 with motorists upset over a fuel tax hike but now involve a broad range of demands related to France’s high cost of living.

 

Macron, speaking in Buenos Aires before he flew home, welcomed the views of the protesters but said there was no place for violence in public discourse.

 

“[Violence] has nothing to do with the peaceful expression of a legitimate anger” and “no cause justifies” attacks on police or pillaging stores and burning buildings, Macron said.

 

 

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Maltese Coast Guard Takes 11 Migrants Saved by Trawler

Eleven migrants rescued by a trawler last week have been handed over to the Maltese coast guard and will soon reach port in Malta, a Spanish aid group said Sunday.

Proactiva Open Arms says on Twitter that the Spanish trawler Nuestra Senora de Loreto radioed them to say the migrants had been transferred.

Earlier Sunday the Spanish government told the trawler that it had permission to dock in Malta, putting an end to its weeklong wait in the open sea.

Malta, along with Italy, had initially refused to accept the boat because it had rescued the migrants in Libyan waters. The trawler rescued 12 migrants last week. One migrant was evacuated for health reasons on Friday.

European Union countries have been sharply at odds over who should take in migrants from North Africa. So far this year the International Organization for Migration says 107,216 migrants have arrived in Europe and 2,123 others have died or gone missing in their dangerous journeys across the Mediterranean Sea.

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Mattis Slams ‘Slow Learner’ Putin Over Election Meddling

U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis accused Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday of being a “slow learner” who again tried to meddle in U.S. elections in November, adding that he had no trust in the Russian leader.

The remarks by Mattis at a security forum in California came a day after President Donald Trump held informal talks with Putin on the sidelines of the Group of 20 industrialized nations meeting in Argentina. Trump had scrapped a more formal meeting with Putin, citing Russia’s treatment of Ukraine.

Asked if U.S.-Russian ties had become more strained since he took over the Pentagon last year after Trump became president, Mattis said, “There’s no doubt the relationship has worsened.”

“(Putin) tried again to muck around in our elections this last month. And we are seeing a continued effort along those lines,” Mattis said, adding that the United States would take whatever steps were necessary to defend American democracy.

Election interference

American intelligence agencies concluded that Russia interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election to sow discord and boost Trump’s chances through a campaign of propaganda and hacking aimed at disparaging his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton. A special counsel investigation into Russia’s role in that election and whether Trump’s campaign conspired with Moscow has cast a cloud over his presidency.

The comments by Mattis were the latest sign of deteriorating relations between Washington and Moscow. Russia has denied meddling. Trump has said there was no collusion.

Ahead of the Nov. 6 midterm congressional elections, U.S. intelligence and law enforcement officials accused Russia of trying to influence the vote. U.S. prosecutors in October charged a Russian national with playing a financial role in a Kremlin-backed plan to conduct “information warfare” against the United States, including attempts to influence the midterm election.

Russia-Ukraine tensions

Russian forces opened fire on Ukrainian naval vessels last weekend and seized them and their crew near Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014. Mattis said those actions underscored why the international community was increasingly distrustful of Moscow.

“Mr. Putin is clearly a slow learner. He is not recognizing that what he is doing is actually creating an animosity against his people,” Mattis said.

“What we are seeing Putin do with his ripping up of international agreements … we’re dealing with someone that we simply cannot trust,” the Pentagon chief added.

White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders on Saturday confirmed Trump’s encounter with Putin in Argentina in a statement, saying, “As is typical at multilateral events, President Trump and the first lady had a number of informal conversations with world leaders at the dinner last night, including President Putin.”

Speaking in Buenos Aires, Putin told reporters Saturday there were no preconditions for future bilateral talks with Trump.

“It is regrettable that we can’t succeed in holding a full-scale meeting, which is long due,” Putin said, adding that issues of strategic stability would be of paramount importance.

Pompeo dismisses ‘parlor game’

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Saturday said the Ukraine events were the only reason Trump canceled his planned formal meeting with Putin in Argentina, not developments in Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia probe.

The decision to scrap the meeting with Putin came shortly after Trump’s former personal lawyer Michael Cohen pleaded guilty Thursday to a charge of lying to Congress about a skyscraper project Trump was pursuing in Moscow during the 2016 U.S. presidential race.

“Ludicrous; Washington parlor game,” Pompeo said in a CNN interview at the G-20 meeting when asked whether Trump was motivated to cancel the meeting by Cohen’s guilty plea.

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Romania Marks 100th Birthday Amid Rule-of-Law Concerns 

Despite freezing temperatures, tens of thousands of Romanians turned out Saturday to celebrate 100 years since their nation became a modern-day state, with some noting concerns now about the rule of law and the state of democracy in the Balkan nation. 

 

Romanians waving the country’s flag attended huge military parades in Bucharest and Alba Iulia, the Transylvanian city that symbolizes Romania’s 1918 reunification. Crowds braved temperatures of -5 degrees C (23 degrees F) to watch tanks and military vehicles drive under the Triumphal Arch built after World War I. 

 

While most considered the event a national celebration, some booed anti-riot police who participated in Saturday’s parade. That anger comes after police clashed in August with anti-corruption protesters, leaving 450 people injured.  

  

Members of the ruling Social Democratic Party were booed at a ceremony in Alba Iulia, where President Klaus Iohannis, a political rival, called for Romanians to build a “dignified and powerful country, integrated through education, culture and creativity into a Europe of values, prosperity and freedom.” 

Cries of ‘Resign!’

 

More than 1,000 Romanians gathered Saturday evening outside government offices in Bucharest to protest high-level corruption, yelling, “Resign!”  

  

Electrician Gabriel Ene said he was glad that Romanians had “a free voice” but said the laws that the Social Democrat government wanted to pass “will support liars and thieves.” 

 

Other Romanians celebrated the day with the traditional dish of cabbage rolls stuffed with minced meat and rice and polenta.   

  

The U.S. and the European Union are among those criticizing a judicial overhaul in Romania by the Social Democrats that they claim will undermine the fight against government corruption. 

 

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo thanked Romania for contributing to global and Black Sea security as a NATO member and participating in missions in Afghanistan and Iraq. His statement said Washington stands with Romania “in its efforts to uphold democratic values and the rule of law … which are … the foundation of economic growth and prosperity.” 

 

Romania entered World War I aligned with Britain, France and other allies in 1916 but capitulated to the Central powers led by Germany. It re-entered World War I in 1918, and doubled its territory after the end of the war. 

 

That was partly thanks to Romanian Queen Marie, the granddaughter of Britain’s Queen Victoria and of Russia’s czar, who warned the Allied victors there could be an uprising if Romania didn’t reunite with Transylvania, which until the war had been part of the Austro-Hungarian empire.  

  

The end of World War I brought about the end of the sprawling Austro-Hungarian empire.  

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Thousands March in Germany Calling for End to Coal Power

Thousands of people marched in Berlin and Cologne on Saturday calling for Germany to abandon coal-powered electricity generation, on the eve of a major climate conference in Poland.

Organizers in Berlin said 16,000 protesters marched in Berlin — 5,000 according to police — in a colorful march featuring placards, banners and costumes.

In the western city of Cologne, organizers said 20,000 people turned out to protest — 10,000 according to police.

Hubert Weiger, spokesman for one organization, “Bund,” called on Germany to commit to pulling out of coal by 2030.

The government is expected to settle on a calendar to phase out polluting power sources such as coal at the beginning of next year.

Already in 2011, Chancellor Angela Merkel decided to phase out nuclear power generation by 2022, in the wake of the disaster at Fukushima reactor meltdown in Japan.

Partly because of that decision, coal remains a cornerstone of energy generation in Germany’s energy policy, accounting for nearly 40 percent of the country’s energy production.

The marches came ahead of the COP24 climate summit, which opens in Poland on Sunday. Delegates from nearly 200 countries are due in Katowice for the gathering, which is intended to renew and build on the Paris deal limiting global warming.

Coal — the largest single source of carbon dioxide emissions — accounted for 40 percent of the pollutant worldwide in 2017 according to the Global Carbon Project.

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UNESCO Adds Reggae, Perfume Making and More to List of Cultural Treasures

The United Nations has added reggae music to its list of International Cultural Treasures worthy of protection and promotion. Perfume-making in a southern French city and a religious tradition in Mexico are among traditions that have joined the list of UNESCO’S Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity. VOA’s Zlatica Hoke has more.

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US Judge Gives Preliminary OK to $48M VW Investor Settlement 

A U.S. judge in California has granted preliminary approval of a $48 million settlement for investors who said Volkswagen AG made false and misleading statements about its excess diesel emissions. 

Lawyers for the investors, who include police and other municipal pension funds, had estimated that the maximum they could have recovered was $147 million. But Judge Charles Breyer said the settlement agreed to in August appeared “fair, adequate and reasonable.” 

VW, in a statement, said Friday that the “proposed settlement agreement eliminates the uncertainty and considerable costs of protracted litigation in the United States and is in the best interests of the company.” The ruling was issued late Wednesday. 

Buybacks

In total, Volkswagen has agreed to pay more than $25 billion in the United States for claims from owners, environmental regulators, states and dealers, and has offered to buy back about 500,000 polluting U.S. vehicles. The buybacks will continue through 2019. 

The German automaker admitted in September 2015 to secretly installing software in nearly 500,000 U.S. cars to cheat government exhaust emissions tests. The vehicles had emitted up to 40 times the legally allowable pollutants. 

In 2017, VW also pleaded guilty of fraud, obstruction of justice and falsifying statements in a U.S. court. Under the plea deal, the automaker agreed to sweeping reforms, new audits and oversight by an independent monitor for three years. 

Federal prosecutors in Detroit unsealed criminal charges in May against former VW Chief Executive Officer Martin Winterkorn, who remains in Germany. Two other former VW executives have pleaded guilty in the investigation and are in prison. 

In total, nine people have been charged in the United States. 

Breyer set a date for a fairness hearing to allow further comment on the August settlement for May 10, after which a final ruling will be issued. 

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UK Leader Focused on Passing Brexit Deal Despite Uncertainty

British Prime Minister Theresa May accused the opposition Labor Party of betraying the British people by trying to stop Brexit as she went on the offensive Friday in her battle to win approval of the widely criticized divorce agreement she negotiated with the European Union. 

 

With less than two weeks to go before a vote in the House of Commons, May is trying to win support from lawmakers of all parties who have balked at the deal. She declined to entertain questions about what alternative she might offer if the current agreement is rejected Dec. 11. 

 

“I’ve got a plan, I’ve got a proposal, I’ve got the deal that I’ve negotiated,” she said ahead of the G-20 summit in Argentina. “We don’t see any alternative coming forward from the Labor Party. … Instead, what I see from Labor is an attempt to frustrate what the government is doing to deliver Brexit for the British people. That is actually a betrayal of the British people.” 

 

The agreement ratified by EU leaders last weekend came more than two years after a U.K. referendum in which 52 percent of those who cast ballots voted to leave the bloc. Some opponents are calling for a second referendum now that the costs of leaving the EU have become clear, but May says that would violate the trust of the 17.4 million people who voted for Brexit in 2016. 

 

The prime minister has been highlighting the risks of leaving the EU without a deal in a bid to persuade skeptical lawmakers — including many of her fellow Conservatives — to back the agreement.    

Her efforts suffered a blow Friday when Universities Minister Sam Gyimah quit the government, saying accepting the deal would mean surrendering “our voice, our vote and our veto” in the EU. 

 

“Britain will end up worse off, transformed from rule makers into rule takers,” Gyimah wrote in the Daily Telegraph. 

 

Several other ministers have quit the government in the past two weeks, saying they cannot support the agreement. Some, like Gyimah, supported remaining in the bloc in Britain’s 2016 EU referendum, while others back a definitive break with the EU. 

 

Many members of Parliament on both sides of the Brexit debate oppose the deal — Brexiters because it keeps Britain bound closely to the EU, pro-EU politicians because it erects barriers between the U.K. and the EU, its biggest trading partner. 

Leaving the EU without a deal would end more than 40 years of free trade and disrupt the flow of goods and services between Britain and the EU. The Bank of England warned this week that a no-deal Brexit would plunge Britain into a severe recession. 

 

May’s comments came after lawmakers proposed an amendment that could stop Brexit if Parliament rejected her agreement. The amendment says Parliament must be able to express its view on how the government should proceed if the prime minister’s plan is defeated.  

Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, a staunch Brexiter who is one of the most vocal critics of the deal, said Friday that the government was trying to frighten people into accepting it with dire forecasts about the impact of leaving the EU without an agreement.  

  

Some lawmakers urged May to return to the EU for better terms. But European Council President Donald Tusk, who is also at the G-20 meeting in Buenos Aires, warned that the agreement ratified by the EU last weekend is “the only possible one.” 

 

“If this deal is rejected in the House of Commons, we are left with an alternative: no deal, or no Brexit it all,” Tusk said. “The European Union is prepared for every scenario.” 

 

May urged British lawmakers to remember that the country voted for Brexit, and she insisted that the public wanted government to get on with it.  

  

“This is about what is in the national interest,” she said. “It’s about delivering the vote to leave the EU and doing it in a way that protects people’s jobs and livelihoods and protects our security and our United Kingdom.” 

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Ukraine Bars Entry to Russian Males, Upping Ante in Conflict

Ukrainian officials on Friday upped the ante in the growing confrontation with Russia, announcing a travel ban for most Russian males and searching the home of an influential cleric of the Russian Orthodox Church.

The long-simmering conflict bubbled over Sunday when Russian border guards rammed into and opened fired on three Ukrainian vessels near the Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow annexed in 2014. The vessels were trying to pass through the Kerch Strait on their way to the Sea of Azov. The Russians then captured the ships and 24 crew members.

The Ukrainian parliament on Monday adopted the president’s motion to impose martial law in the country for 30 days in the wake of the standoff.

There has been growing hostility between Ukraine and Russia since Moscow’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014. Russia has also supported separatists in Ukraine’s east with clandestine dispatches of troops and weapons. Fighting there has killed at least 10,000 people since 2014 but eased somewhat after a 2015 truce.

Petro Tsygykal, chief of the Ukrainian Border Guard Service, announced at a security meeting on Friday that all Russian males between 16 and 60 will be barred from traveling to the country while martial law is in place.

President Petro Poroshenko told the meeting that the measures are taken “in order to prevent the Russian Federation from forming private armies” on Ukrainian soil.

The announcement follows Thursday’s decision by U.S. President Donald Trump to scrap the much-anticipated meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. Trump said it isn’t appropriate for him to meet with Putin since Russia hasn’t released the Ukrainian seamen.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian intelligence agency announced on Friday that they are investigating a senior cleric of the Russian Orthodox Church.

Ihor Guskov, chief of staff of the SBU intelligence agency, told reporters that its officers are searching the home of Father Pavlo, who leads the Pechersk Monastery in Kiev. He said the cleric is suspected of “inciting hatred.”

The Pechersk Monastery, the spiritual center of Ukraine, is under the jurisdiction of the Russian Orthodox Church.

The Ukrainian church, which has been part of the Russian Orthodox Church for centuries, moved close to forming an independent church — fueled by the conflict with Russia Ukraine’s Orthodox communities earlier this year.

There are currently three Orthodox communities in Ukraine, including two breakaway churches. Ukrainian authorities sought to portray the Russian Orthodox clerics in Ukraine as supporting separatists.

Ukraine’s president announced on Thursday that the Constantinople patriarchy has approved a decree granting the Ukrainian Orthodox Church independence from the Russian Orthodox Church, a major boost to the president’s approval ratings.

Both the Russian Orthodox Church and Russian authorities are strongly against the move and have warned Ukraine not to do it, fearing sectarian violence.

Russian government-appointed ombudswoman for Crimea told Russian news agencies that all the seamen have been transported from a detention center in Crimea. The three commanders have been taken to Moscow, she said. It wasn’t immediately clear where the other 21 have been taken.

A Crimea court earlier this week ruled to keep the Ukrainian seamen behind bars for two months pending the investigation.

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Report: Russia, China ‘Stress-Testing’ Resolve of West

Russia and China are among several countries attempting to “stress-test” the resolve of traditional powers, according to a report from the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

It claims so-called “challenger” nations are persistently testing the tolerance of established powers for different forms of aggression, from proxy wars to cyberattacks.

The researchers cite the seizure this week of three Ukrainian naval vessels by Russian forces in the Azov Sea off Crimea, the territory that was forcibly annexed in 2014. Moscow claims these are Russian waters, in contravention of a 2003 deal between Moscow and Ukraine, which agreed the Azov Sea would be shared.

Ukraine warns its Black Sea ports are being cut off. A bridge built by Russia linking it with Crimea now limits the size of ships able to navigate the Kerch Strait.

Probing for weaknesses

The aim is to change the facts on the ground, said Nicholas Redman, co-author of the institute’s “Strategic Survey” report.

“They’re testing tolerances, probing for weaknesses, getting a measure of the resolve of other states by acts that are generally aggressive but are below the threshold of something that would obviously require a military response,” Redman told VOA.

Iran is also accused of conducting “tolerance warfare” by using its Revolutionary Guard and proxies across the Middle East to destabilize other countries, such as Syria.

Beijing’s activities in the South China Sea are also seen as part of the strategy to test Western resolve in that arena.

“China has used not its navy, but its coast guard or some other at-water capabilities in order to slowly push the envelope in the South China Sea. And obviously, the island-building campaign and the growth of infrastructure around there is about — without directly confronting anyone — nevertheless changing facts on the ground,” Redman said.

How to respond

So how should those on the receiving end of “tolerance warfare” respond? The report’s authors praise Britain’s reaction to the attempted chemical poisoning of a former double agent on British soil earlier this year, which London blamed on the GRU, the intelligence branch of Russia’s armed forces.

“What we saw was a powerful, asymmetric response. Sanctions, a tremendous degree of allied solidarity over diplomatic expulsions, and then an information operation over several months to systematically expose GRU activity,” Redman said.

The report warns a new era of geopolitical competition urgently requires new rules governing international behavior but negotiating such a global framework is fraught with difficulty.

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Britain’s May to Talk With Saudi Crown Prince About Khashoggi Killing

The British prime minister says she intends to talk about the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the G-20 meeting in Argentina.

Theresa May said on the airplane to Buenos Aires that the British government “wants to see a full and transparent investigation in relation to what happened and obviously those responsible being held to account.”

The Guardian, a British newspaper, said Downing Street sources have not officially confirmed a bilateral meeting but have suggested that May and the crown prince would be “engaging.”

Khashoggi, a Saudi national and critic of the crown prince, was killed last month after entering the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul, where he had gone to obtain documents needed for his upcoming wedding.

Saudi Arabia has denied allegations that Salman played a role in Khashoggi’s death, blaming the killing on rogue agents. U.S. President Donald Trump has echoed Riyadh’s denials and said the matter remains an open question.

South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, a frequent defender of Trump has joined other U.S. lawmakers in demanding a briefing by the CIA on Khashoggi’s death and has threatened to withhold votes on urgent legislation if it does not occur.

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Kerch Naval Clash Upends Planned Trump-Putin Talks

Until the Russian attack Sunday on Ukrainian vessels in the Black Sea, the White House and the Kremlin had at least agreed on one thing, the agenda for Saturday’s scheduled face-to-face between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, their second summit meeting.

Arms control, security issues as well as the Middle East and North Korea were all set to figure prominently, senior U.S. and Russian aides told reporters in the run-up to the meeting.

The Kremlin had earmarked as their key issue, say Russian officials, Trump’s recent decision to abandon a landmark Cold War-era agreement prohibiting the U.S. and Russia from possessing ground-launched short-range nuclear missiles.

For the White House, securing a public commitment from the Russians to enforce United Nations sanctions on North Korea before next month’s planned summit between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was a key objective, according to U.S. officials.

But the Russian attack on three Ukrainian vessels shifted the dynamics of Saturday’s planned two-hour face-to-face between Trump and Putin on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Argentina, say analysts, with the U.S. leader being urged to take a tough line that might imperil his overall determination to improve U.S.-Russian relations.

Trump suggested Tuesday he might cancel the meeting after Russian ships opened fire on and seized the Ukrainian ships near Crimea.  Then on Thursday, after telling reporters the meeting will go ahead, he tweeted that he has canceled the meeting “based on the fact that the ships and sailors have not been returned to Ukraine from Russia.”  “I look forward to a meaningful Summit again as soon as this situation is resolved!” he said.

Kremlin officials had earlier said they expected the meeting to be held.

“We don’t have to agree on all issues, which is probably impossible, but we need to talk.  It’s in the interests of not only our two countries, it’s in the interests of the whole World,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Earlier this week John Bolton, the U.S. National Security Adviser, said Trump was planning to discuss security, arms control and regional issues with Putin.  “I think it will be a continuation of their discussion in Helsinki,” he said, referring to the first summit meeting between the two leaders held in Finland in July, when they met for more than two hours with only their translators present.

The Helsinki sit-down prompted widespread criticism of Trump from across the U.S. political spectrum, with Republican and Democrat lawmakers expressing dismay at what they saw as the U.S. leader’s amplifying of Putin denials of Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential elections.

State Department Spokeswoman Heather Nauert said Washington wanted to see tougher enforcement of sanctions against Russia as a consequence of the Russian action, the first time the Kremlin has staged open aggression against Ukraine since Putin annexed Crimea four years ago and launched a destabilization campaign in Ukraine’s Donbas region.

German chancellor Angela Merkel is expected to address the Kerch incident at the G-20 meeting.

Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko piled pressure Thursday on the G-20 by calling for a tough collective response to Russia, saying he fears Moscow intends broader military action against his country.  European Union hawks have called for more sanctions to be imposed on Russia, although with the bloc already divided over policy towards Russia it is unlikely that will happen swiftly without a strong lead from Washington, say diplomats.

Trump waited more than 24 hours after the maritime clash before he commented on the incident, prompting criticism, once again, that he was going lightly on his Russian counterpart.  But once he did address the clash, his irritation was clear.  “I don’t like that aggression.  I don’t want that aggression at all,” he told the Washington Post.

Steven Pifer, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and now an analyst at the Washington-based Brookings Institution told VOA if Trump “does not raise the question of the Russian conflict against Ukraine … the Russian would calculate the President is weak on this issue.  That’s going to be bad for Ukraine, but also bad for American foreign policy.”

 

 

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Erdogan, Trump Set to Meet at G20

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. President Donald Trump are due to meet  on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Erdogan indicated U.S. support for a Syrian Kurdish militia would top their agenda.

Speaking before leaving for Buenos Aires, Erdogan said the planned talks would pick up on themes raised in Wednesday’s telephone call with Trump. Ongoing tensions between Ukraine and Russia initiated the call.

“They agreed to meet again at G20 to discuss this concern and other important issues in the bilateral relationship,” read the White House readout of the call.

Trump and Erdogan have again started to work together on the many crises in Turkey’s region after months of diplomatic tensions. October’s release by a Turkish court of American pastor Andrew Brunson was the trigger for renewed cooperation and talks.

“There are some very thorny issues that have been postponed rather than resolved,” said analyst Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners. “But the release of Brunson has ended a psychological barrier to dialogue.”

At the top of Erdogan’s list of issues to be resolved is Washington’s ongoing support for the YPG Syrian Kurdish militia in its war against the Islamic State.

Turkey considers the YPG terrorists linked to a decades-long insurgency inside Turkey and is pushing for a road map agreement with Washington to end YPG presence in the strategically important Syrian City of Manbij.

Under the deal, American and Turkish forces would replace the militia. “We will discuss the Manbij issue at the [G-20] meeting with U.S. President Trump,” Erdogan said Thursday.

Former senior Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen, who served widely in the region, sees the Manbij deal as a blueprint for future efforts that would feature “joint Turkish-US patrols to push the YPG away from the border.”

Time is against the Kurds, he said. “We are at a new phase in U.S. Turkish relations with greater cooperation.”

Greater cooperation

A major stumbling block to greater cooperation between the U.S. and Turkey are the deepening Turkish-Iranian ties. Observers point out Washington increasingly sees curtailing Iran’s presence in Syria a priority, a role the YPG could play given it controls a fifth of Syrian territory.

“They [Washington] will ask Turkey to follow in line against Iran and hold the ground.” said Selcen, “Then, this will push Turkey to distance itself from the Astana process, from Iran and Russia altogether.”

The Astana process brought together Ankara, Moscow, and Tehran in efforts to end the Syrian civil war.

Leverage over Turkey

Trump does retain leverage over Erdogan. Turkish State-owned Halkbank is facing potential multi-billion dollars fines for violating U.S. Iranian sanctions.

“The fact that Halkbank is still on the hook with the American judiciary obliges Turkey to be nice to the U.S.,” said Yesilada.

Erdogan is expected to raise Halkbank with Trump at the G20 summit.

Turkey’s controversial purchase of S400 Russian missiles also is likely feature in the talks. The U.S. is calling for an end to the deal, claiming the missiles threaten to compromise NATO weapons systems, in particular, America’s latest fighter the F-35.

Tit-for-tat

A U.S. Congressional report cautions against the delivery of the F 35 to Turkey if the delivery of S400 goes ahead in mid-2019. Such a move could also jeopardize Turkey’s ongoing participation in the manufacture of the fighter.

“The F-35 is important to Erdogan as part of the development of Turkey’s defense industry, which is a priority for the president,” said Yesilada.

Erdogan insists the S-400 purchase will go ahead, although he has suggested readiness to consider buying an American missile system as well.

International relations professor Huseyin Bagci, of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University, says Turkey has “had enough with the economic and political crisis and now wants to repair relations. And Trump appears prepared to do this.”

Trump has received plaudits in Ankara for taking steps against Turkish Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen, who lives in self-imposed exile in the United States and denies Erdogan’s charges he was behind a 2016 coup attempt.

“Ankara is quite content with the state of a recent investigation by the FBI on Gulen’s approximately 180 charter schools in the U.S.” wrote columnist Cansu Camlibel for Hurriyet Daily News. “The FBI has been investigating tax and visa fraud, as well as money laundering, allegations against schools known for their ties to Gülen.”

The Erdogan-Trump meeting is not expected to result in any breakthroughs on critical issues that continue to plague bilateral ties. But analysts suggest both leaders share an interest in working to defuse tensions.

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Trump Under Pressure to Take Forceful Line With Putin at G20

Until the Russian attack Sunday on Ukrainian vessels in the Black Sea, the White House and the Kremlin had at least been agreed on one thing: the agenda for Saturday’s scheduled face-to-face between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, their second summit meeting.

Arms control, security issues as well as the Middle East and North Korea were all set to figure prominently, senior U.S. and Russian aides told reporters in the run-up to the meeting.

Russian officials say the Kremlin had earmarked as their key issue Trump’s recent decision to abandon a landmark Cold War-era agreement prohibiting the U.S. and Russia from possessing ground-launched short-range nuclear missiles.

For the White House, securing a public commitment from the Russians to enforce United Nations sanctions on North Korea before next month’s planned summit between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was a key objective, according to U.S. officials.

But analysts say the Russian attack on three Ukrainian vessels risks shifting the dynamics of Saturday’s planned two-hour face-to-face between Trump and Putin on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Argentina, with the U.S. leader being urged to take a tough line that might imperil his overall determination to improve U.S.-Russian relations.

Trump suggested Tuesday he might cancel the meeting after Russian ships opened fire on and seized the Ukrainian ships near Crimea. But on Thursday he indicated the meeting will go ahead.

“I probably will be meeting with President Putin. We haven’t terminated that meeting. I was thinking about it, but we haven’t. I think it’s a very good time to have the meeting,” he told reporters at the White House.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Wednesday in Moscow the White House hadn’t indicated to the Kremlin the meeting wouldn’t be held.

“We don’t have to agree on all issues, which is probably impossible, but we need to talk. It’s in the interests of not only our two countries, it’s in the interests of the whole World,” Peskov said.

Asked what would be discussed, he said, “First of all, questions related to bilateral relations, we need to think about how to start talking on matters of bilateral relations, on matters of strategic security and disarmament and on regional conflicts.”

Earlier this week John Bolton, the U.S. National Security Adviser, said Trump would discuss security, arms control and regional issues with Putin.

“I think it will be a continuation of their discussion in Helsinki,” he said, referring to the first summit meeting between the two leaders held in Finland in July, when they met for more than two hours with only their translators present.

The Helsinki sit-down prompted widespread criticism of Trump from across the U.S. political spectrum, with Republican and Democrat lawmakers expressing dismay at what they saw as the U.S. leader’s amplifying of Putin denials of Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential elections.

Bolton did not confirm whether the naval clash in the Kerch Strait, a shared Russian-Ukrainian waterway linking the Black Sea with the Sea of Azov, would be on the table. But it is hard to see how it won’t be amid Western clamor about what U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has labelled a “dangerous escalation and a violation of international law.”

State Department Spokeswoman Heather Nauert said Washington wanted to see tougher enforcement of sanctions against Russia as a consequence of the Russian action, the first time the Kremlin has staged open aggression against Ukraine since Putin annexed Crimea four years ago and launched a destabilization campaign in Ukraine’s Donbas region.

German chancellor Angela Merkel is expected to address the Kerch incident at the G20 meeting before the Trump-Putin sit-down.

Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko piled pressure Thursday on the G20 by calling for a tough collective response to Russia, saying he fears Moscow intends broader military action against his country.

European Union hawks have called for more sanctions to be imposed on Russia, although diplomats say with the bloc already divided over policy towards Russia, it is unlikely that will happen swiftly without a strong lead from Washington.

Trump waited more than 24 hours after the maritime clash before he commented on the incident, prompting criticism, once again that he was going lightly on his Russian counterpart. But once he did address the clash, his irritation was clear.

“I don’t like that aggression. I don’t want that aggression at all,” he told the Washington Post.

Steven Pifer, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and now an analyst at the Washington-based Brookings Institution said if Trump “does not raise the question of the Russian conflict against Ukraine … the Russian would calculate the President is weak on this issue.

“That’s going to be bad for Ukraine, but also bad for American foreign policy,” he told VOA.

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