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Analysts: Most of Venezuela’s Russian Oil Clients Bailed Last Year

As numerous European clients of Venezuela’s state-owned PDVSA petroleum company freeze crude purchases in the face of mounting international sanctions, analysts in Moscow say all of Venezuela’s Russian customers with the exception of Rosneft had begun suspending or liquidating contracts in mid-to-late 2018.

Caracas-based “Diario2001Online” news outlet reported last week that PDVSA had announced that one of its largest Russia contractors, Moscow-headquartered Lukoil, had suddenly frozen its contracts in Venezuela for fear of being subjected to U.S. financial system restrictions resulting from the rapidly unfolding political turmoil.

Moscow-based energy economist Mikhail Subbotin told VOA that in June a PDVSA official had notified eight of its international clients, including Lukoil, that it would be unable to meet its production commitments.

Lukoil forewarned

PDVSA had forewarned Lukoil in particular, Subbotin said, that its diluted crude oil deliveries would fall short by more than 100,000 barrels, suggesting Lukoil officials may have been mulling a termination of their Venezuela contracts as early as summer 2018.

Independent Russian defense analyst Pavel Felgenhauer reiterated that point, explaining that, with the exception of Russia’s state-run Rosneft, an exodus of private Russian firms was underway before 2019.

“It wasn’t only Lukoil, but other [Russian] companies as well,” he told VOA, adding that Lukoil in particular had suspended or sold its contracts to Rosneft following last June’s especially dim PDVSA production forecast.

“As far as I know, all the companies left,” Felgenhauer said. “It happened quite some time ago, and I have to look for it online to figure out a precise date but, as I remember, it happened earlier. It is solely Rosneft that remains there. There are no more fools.”

Last week’s reports of a sudden Lukoil suspension of contracts relied almost exclusively on a Jan. 29 Tweet by Wall Street Journal correspondent Anatoly Kurmanaev, who said an industry supply official had confirmed Lukoil’s decision, which “threatens to leave [PDVSA] without gasoline and diluent (diluting agent) to process its crude.”

Kurmanaev, who has since joined The New York Times, also tweeted: 

Lukoil officials have not responded to multiple inquiries about the timing of contract suspensions.

Oil exports crucial

PDVSA brings in almost all of Venezuela’s income and is run by the military. A December investigation by Reuters called the company poorly run and unusually vulnerable to collapse if faced with U.S. sanctions.

Venezuela depends almost entirely on oil exports for hard currency, so the new U.S. sanctions against Venezuela’s state-run oil company mean that the country will be able to purchase even fewer imports, including food.

Last month, the leader of Venezuela’s National Assembly, Juan Guaido, declared himself interim president in a direct challenge to the power of socialist leader Nicolas Maduro, who had been sworn in to a second term in office only two weeks before.

U.S. President Donald Trump officially recognized Guaido as the legitimate interim president of Venezuela just minutes after Guaido said he was taking over as acting president.

Russia, China prop up Venezuela

Trump’s comments infuriated Russia, which views Maduro as Venezuela’s legitimate leader, and called the street anti-Maduro protests in Venezuela the result of a Western plot.

Russia and China are Venezuela’s biggest creditors, providing loans to help Maduro’s government prop up the country’s imploding economy.

Kremlin officials, Subbotin said, would likely be dismayed by a Lukoil pullout from the region, as such a move would only exacerbate circumstances on the ground in Caracas and undermine their efforts to resolve an entrenched political crisis unfolding in a key client state.

But Andrey Kortunov, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, said many of Russia’s private investors have been shaky on Venezuela for some time.

“To start with, it’s quite far away, so it’s quite complicated for small- and medium-sized businesses to conduct affairs there,” he told VOA, adding that some Russian investors had anticipated that Venezuela’s sustained economic downturn could culminate in political repercussions.

“Private businesses just afraid to get involved there,” he said. “Many [Russians] just don’t believe in the stability of this regime.”

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Dutch, Russia in Talks About Responsibility in MH17 Downing

The Dutch foreign minister says his country is in diplomatic discussions with Russia about whether Moscow bears legal responsibility in the 2014 downing of a Malaysia Airlines jet over Ukraine

The Netherlands is in diplomatic discussions with Russia about the European country’s assertion that Moscow bears legal responsibility for its role in the 2014 downing of a passenger jet over Ukraine, the Dutch foreign minister said Thursday.

Foreign Minister Stef Blok said the initial diplomatic contacts were aimed at paving the way for formal talks and conducted in “a positive atmosphere.” He said it was too early to say where and when formal talks might take place.

“There are diplomatic contacts to see if we can begin formal talks about national responsibility for shooting down MH17,” Blok told Dutch reporters.

The Netherlands and Australia said last year they held Russia legally responsible for providing the missile that brought down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over conflict-ravaged eastern Ukraine. All 298 passengers and crew members were killed.

About two-thirds of the people killed when a Buk missile fired from territory held by pro-Russian rebels slammed into the Boeing 777 were Dutch. The Netherlands has been one of the main driving forces behind seeking accountability for the attack.

Silene Fredriksz-Hoogzand, whose son Bryce was on board the scheduled flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur with his girlfriend, tweeted in response to Blok’s update: “It’s about time … 5 years on.”

International investigators last year said they had strong evidence the Buk missile system that shot down the airplane came from a Russia-based military unit. 

Russia has denied involvement and dismissed the findings from the international criminal probe because it was not invited to be part of the investigation team.

If Russia were ultimately to acknowledge some form of legal responsibility, it could lead to compensation claims from relatives of the people killed. 

When the Netherlands and Australia last year said they were holding Russia responsible, they quickly got backing from the United States, Britain and other allies. 

“It is time for Russia to acknowledge its role in the shooting down of MH17 and to cease its callous disinformation campaign,” U.S. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said in a statement at the time.

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Report: May Seeks Labour Support on Brexit

British Prime Minister Theresa May has approached a number of members of parliament from the opposition Labour Party to put forward an amendment to her withdrawal motion, The Sun newspaper reported late Thursday.

May is planning to back a new package of workers’ rights in a deal with some members of the Labour Party, the report said, citing sources.

On Wednesday, Labour made public a letter written by opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn to May offering to support her Brexit deal if she makes five legally binding commitments, including joining a customs union.

Britain is scheduled to leave the European Union March 29.

 

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US Nuns Urge Changes to Church Structure to Address Abuse

The main umbrella organization of religious sisters in the United States is calling for an overhaul of the male-led leadership structure of the Catholic Church, after Pope Francis acknowledged the problem of priests and bishops sexually abusing nuns.

 

The Leadership Conference of Women Religious also called Thursday for the creation of reporting mechanisms that ensure sisters who have been abused “are met with compassion and are offered safety.”

 

The conference represents about 80 percent of Catholic sisters in the U.S. Its statement came after Francis acknowledged Tuesday that abuse of nuns was a problem and said the Vatican is working on it but more needs to be done.

 

The LCWR said current authority structures need to be changed “if the church is to regain its moral credibility and have a viable future.”

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France to Continue Military Cooperation with Cameroon

France said on Thursday its defense cooperation with Cameroon was continuing a day after the United States said it was halting some military assistance to the West African country over allegations of human rights violations by its security forces.

“France is bound by a defense partnership agreement that it conducts according to the international standards,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Agnes von der Muhll said in a daily briefing with reporters.

“In accordance with international humanitarian law and the law of armed conflict, this cooperation is also intended to help Cameroon’s defense and security forces combat terrorism, especially against Boko Haram in the north of the country, while protecting the people. This cooperation continues.”

Cameroon has cooperated closely with the Western states in the fight against Islamist militant group Boko Haram in West and central Africa. But rights groups have accused authorities of using the fight against Boko Haram to crack down on political opponents, and make arbitrary arrests and torture people.

Authorities arrested opposition leader Maurice Kamto in January, accusing him of mobilizing dissent against President Paul Biya, who has ruled the country since 1982.

Biya has been accused by the opposition and rights groups of cracking down in two Anglophone regions to root out armed separatists vying for independence.

A State Department official on Wednesday said the United States’ decision to terminate some military programs and halt delivery of some equipment was to push Cameroon to show greater transparency in investigating credible allegations of gross violations of human rights security forces.

France, which has significant business interests in its former colony and relies on it to fight against Islamist militants, has been careful not to overly criticize the government’s handling of the crisis.

It has urged the Cameroonian government to engage in dialogue to stop an escalation in violence.

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Conflicted Spain Delays EU Recognition of Venezuela’s Guaidó

The recognition by several EU countries of Juan Guaidó as acting president of Venezuela this week may further isolate Nicolas Maduro but the hesitation of some  European leaders to back the move may have bought  Maduro valuable time in which to mobilize and step up repression against his opposition, observers say.

When Guaidó invoked his constitutional powers as president of Venezuela’s congress to declare himself acting president on Jan. 23, he drew immediate recognition from U.S. President Donald Trump and 14 Latin American governments who have long denounced what they condemn as Maduro’s moves towards dictatorship.  President Donald Trump this week said U.S. military intervention remains an option.

EU countries waited until Feb. 4  when Spain’s socialist prime minister  Pedro Sánchez delivered a cautious statement recognizing Guaidó as “caretaker president”  while insisting on “elections  in the shortest time possible”, safeguards against “external intervention” in Venezuela and a “multilateral contact group” to open a dialogue with Maduro.

“Maduro has had 12 days in which to regroup and step up repression. There have been killings on the streets, arbitrary arrests and even an attempt to arrest legitimate interim president Juan Guaidó” said the leader of Spain’s conservative opposition Popular Party (PP), Pablo Casado, who has demanded that Sanchez to appear before Spain’s congress to “give explanations.”

Spain has been the EU’s reference point for Venezuelan policy due to its extensive historical, cultural and commercial ties with its former colony. Other EU leaders had deferred to Sanchez on the decision to give official backing to a self-proclaimed leader who was largely unknown and attacked by Maduro as a U.S. lackey.

Sanchez gave Maduro an 8-day period in which to call elections before recognizing Guaidó.

Maduro refused to accept what he called “ultimatums” and has spent the last several days visiting army garrisons to underpin support from the military who are the main pillar of his regime. Soldiers invaded Venezuela’s congressional building on Tuesday, according to news reports.  

Maduro’s ruling PSUV party also organized a mass rally in Caracas where the embattled president spoke last Sunday to eclipse opposition marches led by Guaidó.

Crackdown on opposition

Maduro’s secret police, SEBIN, has arrested about 1,000 opposition activists and a number of foreign journalists over the past two weeks, according to human rights organizations.

Hundreds of Russian advisers described by Kremlin officials as “military contractors” have also been arriving in Venezuela for the apparent purpose of protecting Maduro.  An ex-colonel in Colombia’s military intelligence service, Juan Marulanda, now an international security consultant, has told VOA that they are special forces being assigned to elite Venezuelan units to boost their capacity to resist a possible coup.

A Russian government spokesman said that Europe’s recognition of Guaido could provoke “civil war.”

Maduro has said he is in the process of arming political militias called Colectivos with high-powered weapons supplied by the armed forces.  

Despite clear signs that Maduro is digging in, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini is exploring possibilities for a negotiated settlement.

She has refrained from recognizing Guaidó and has instead promoted an international contact group due to meet in Uruguay on Thursday to seek a peaceful and democratic solution to the crisis in Venezuela.

Calling for talks with Maduro

Some European countries including Italy and Greece have not recognized Guaido and called for direct talks with Maduro.   

The U.S. position expressed by Vice President Mike Pence rules out any dialogue.

Spanish diplomats say that the Trump administration is influenced by Venezuelan opposition leaders who are highly critical of a former socialist prime minister who mediated in previous negotiations with Maduro which they say Maduro tried to use to legitimize his reelection in a sham poll.    

The father of opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez, who has been imprisoned by Maduro, said on Spanish television Monday that it was “senseless” to expect free elections in Venezuela under current electoral authorities which are controlled by the regime.

“The United States is convinced and has let us know that there is no room for more mediation or facilitating further conversations with Maduro,”  Spanish foreign minister Josep Borrell told  Spain’s parliament last week.

Press reports said Madrid has yet to grant diplomatic status to the ambassador Guaidó has designated.

According to the Spanish newspaper El Pais, the U.S. ambassador in Madrid, Duke Buchan, met with Borrell hours before Guaidó proclaimed himself president of Venezuela Jan. 23 to urge the Spanish government to close ranks with the U.S., Canada and the Organization of American States.

But the Sanchez government is also influenced by the far left Podemos party on which it relies for critical parliamentary support.  Podemos spokespersons have often praised Maduro and criticized the decision to recognize Guaidó as dangerous.

Sanchez has said that his main concern is the well being of about 150,000 dual Spanish nationals who live in Venezuela where major Spanish companies including oil giant Repsol and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya are heavily invested. Italy’s oil company Eni also has investments there.  

A new test of Europe’s solidarity is expected in coming days as international  efforts get under way  introduce humanitarian aid to Venezuela. Spain, Germany and other EU countries have  pledged to lead the effort which Maduro has vowed to block, calling it a “Trojan Horse.”

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French Jets Strike Chadian Rebels to Head off Deby Destabilization

French warplanes destroyed about 20 pick-up trucks in a third day of air strikes on Wednesday against a Chadian rebel convoy that crossed last week from Libya, an operation the French military said was aimed at preventing the destabilization of its former colony.

The strikes, which started on Sunday, come as Chadian rebels have increased their activities in southern Libya since vowing last year to overthrow President Idriss Deby. The strikes were also held on Tuesday but not Monday.

The Union of Forces of Resistance (UFR), a rebel Chadian coalition created in 2009 after almost toppling Deby, has said it was behind this week’s incursion, which saw some 50 pick-up trucks drive 400 km (250 miles) into Chadian territory.

“The incursion of this armed column deep into Chadian territory was aimed at destabilizing this country,” the French military said in a statement.

The strikes by Mirage fighter jets were carried out in response to a formal request for assistance by a sovereign state and were conducted according to international humanitarian law, it said. The planes took off from the Chadian capital N’Djamena and were supported by a Reaper drone, the statement said. A UFR official told Reuters on Monday two of its fighters had been killed.

Deby has faced several rebellions since seizing power in 1990 in a military coup. International observers have questioned the fairness of elections that have kept him in office since and last year he pushed through constitutional reforms that could keep him in office until 2033.

France intervened in 2008 to stop the UFR toppling Deby, but President Emmanuel Macron has said he wants a new relationship with France’s former colonies and the era of propping up leaders is over.

However, France considers Chad as crucial given it is deemed as having the most battled-hardened troops in the fight against Islamist militants in West Africa. Paris has based its 4,500-strong counter-terrorism Operation Barkhane force in N’Djamena, where the United States also has a base.

The “Chadian army is an essential partner in the fight against terrorism in Mali … the G5 force and its action against Boko Haram,” the French military statement said.

Chadian air strikes had initially attempted to destroy the rebel convoy on February 1-2. Deby’s fight against Islamist militants in the region has strained his military and hit the oil-dependent economy, leading to growing dissatisfaction in one of the world’s poorest nations.

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Erdogan Slams Washington Over Venezuela 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is accusing Washington of “imperialism” in its efforts to oust Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. 

 

Erdogan’s latest verbal salvo in support of his ally Maduro came amid growing U.S. pressure on Ankara to end support for the beleaguered Venezuelan leader. 

 

“Is Venezuela your instrument?” said Erdogan, chiding U.S. President Donald Trump in an address to his parliamentary deputies Tuesday. “Their president came through elections. What right do you have to appoint another? And where is democracy? How can this be accepted? 

 

“We do not accept the world where the one who is stronger is right. We are against such an imperialist position,” Erdogan added to rapturous applause from his deputies and cheering supporters. 

At odds with West

 

With both Washington and the European Union recognizing Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido as the interim president, Erdogan’s strong backing of Maduro puts him on a collision course with his Western allies. 

 

“I think the issue [for Turkey] is a matter of principle rather than geopolitical factors,” said international relations professor Serhat Guvenc of Istanbul’s Kadir Has University. 

 

“Turkey does not approve of the idea of regime changes in sovereign countries,” he added. “So, they clash with the U.S., in terms of principle. Turkey is in the league of Russia and China, and these countries value sovereignty above all else.”  

Maduro’s opponents accuse him of undermining democracy and presiding over skyrocketing inflation and a collapsing economy.  

 

Ankara’s support of Maduro extends far beyond rhetoric. Turkey is processing large amounts of Venezuelan gold. Last year, Caracas exported nearly $900 million worth of gold to Turkey. The trade provides Maduro with a vital source of revenue in the face of tightening international sanctions. 

 

“Maduro is raiding the gold reserves of Venezuela to generate cash. He has already stolen at least 10 percent of total reserves in the last week,” U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, a Florida Republican, tweeted Friday. “I hope the UAE & Turkey will not be accomplices in this outrageous crime. Any companies that are involved will face U.S. sanctions.”

Pressure from Washington

News reports say Washington is urging Ankara to stop its Venezuelan gold trade. Analysts say adding to U.S. officials’ concerns is the suspicion of some that the Venezuelan gold may end up Iran, violating U.S.-Iranian sanctions. 

“Turkey is duly warned by Washington over this gold deal,” said political scientist Cengiz Aktar. “But I don’t think Turkey can play with the big boys of China and Russia to support the Maduro regime, because Turkey will be forced to step back.”  

Ankara has painful experience with U.S. sanctions. Last year, the Turkish currency collapsed after Trump hit Ankara with sanctions over Turkey’s detention of American pastor Andrew Brunson, who has since been released. Although the sanctions lasted only a few weeks, Turkey’s economy is now facing a recession. 

 

“Up to a point, you may afford to have a deterioration in your relations with the world’s most powerful country, but there is certainly a limit,” said Guvenc. “Turkey has tested those limits and now knows what those limits are, so we will probably see a moderation in Turkey’s position.” 

 

Any step back by Ankara over Venezuela may not be immediate. Turkey holds critical and hotly contested local elections in March. A tough stance toward Washington, analysts point out, plays well with Erdogan’s core religious and nationalist constituents. 

 

“Things may get complicated [with the U.S.] in the short term,” said international relations expert Esra Akgemci of Turkey’s Selcuk University. “But I don’t think things will end up with a serious rupture in Turkey-U.S. relations. It means that Turkey’s support to Venezuela will be restricted.” 

Personal reaction

 

Some analysts explain Erdogan’s strong backing of Maduro by pointing to his personal experiences. In 2013, nationwide anti-government demonstrations, dubbed the Gezi Park protests, nearly ousted Erdogan from power as the then-prime minister. 

 

“Having gone through the experience of the Gezi Park protests,” said Guvenc, “it’s only natural to view such [Venezuelan] street protests through the prism of his personal experience in Turkey. He [Erdogan] is viewing those protests with a certain degree of suspicion.

 

“The government and Erdogan have shown [in the past] and repeatedly said they will use every means at their disposal to suppress any such protests in Turkey in the future,” Guvenc added.  

Erdogan’s suspicion of anti-government protests is heightened by the overthrow of his close ally, Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi. Mass demonstrations in 2013 were the catalyst for then-Gen. Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi’s seizure of power through a coup. 

“When Sissi overthrew Morsi, Erdogan took it personally,” said Aktar. “So, probably as far Maduro is concerned, another Erdogan ally, all this international pressure on Maduro and protests, Erdogan is taking it personally as well. This is clear.” 

 

Erdogan accuses Washington and other foreign powers of engineering Morsi’s downfall, along with the current protests in Venezuela. Elements of Turkish pro-government media are already claiming Turkey could be Washington’s next target. 

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Trump Speech Underlines Allies’ Fears Over US Troop Withdrawal

U.S. allies have given a cautious welcome to President Donald Trump’s announcement of a second summit meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, to be held in the Vietnamese city of Da Nang later this month. Trump’s announcement, during his State of the Union address Tuesday, was one of the few highlights in a speech widely viewed around the world as light on foreign policy. Henry Ridgwell reports from London on the global reaction.

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Madrid Taxi Drivers Call Off Anti-Uber Strike, Vow to Fight On

Taxi-drivers in the Spanish capital seeking tighter regulation of Uber and other ride-hailing services called off their indefinite strike on Tuesday after 16 days during which they obtained no concessions from the Madrid regional government.

Madrid’s refusal to accept drivers’ demands came after ride-hailing companies Uber and Cabify said last week they were suspending their services in Barcelona in response to the regional government’s imposition of limits on how they operate in the city.

Union representatives in Madrid said the strike had demonstrated the unity and power of the drivers, which would help them continue the fight for their demands.

“It is a long war, in which you can lose battles, but in the end I’m sure we can win,” Julio Sanz, head of the Taxi Federation union, told reporters.

The city’s taxi drivers started the protests on Jan. 20 against the private services, which offer rides that often undercut taxi prices and can be hailed via the internet rather than in the street.

Last week, riot police backed by a fleet of tow trucks had to clear hundreds of vehicles blocking the capital’s Paseo de la Castellana thoroughfare.

In September, Spain’s government gave ride-hailing companies four years to comply with regulation granting them just one new licence for every 30 taxi licences. The cab drivers are demanding stricter regulations now.

Following protests by Barcelona taxi-drivers, the Catalan government had ruled that ride-hailing services could only pick up passengers after a 15-minute delay from the time they were booked.

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Lithuania Fears Russia Will Attempt to Sway Its Elections

Lithuania’s intelligence agencies fear Russia will interfere in its forthcoming elections, including one in May to find a successor to the staunchly anti-Kremlin president, Dalia Grybauskaite.

The Baltic state, ruled from Moscow for much of the 20th century but now a member of both the European Union and NATO, was rattled by Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and hosts a German-led multinational battalion to deter any Russian invasion. It holds presidential, municipal and European Parliament elections this year and a parliamentary election in 2020.

“Russian intelligence will step up its activity during the 2019-2020 election cycle,” the agencies wrote in a joint annual assessment published Tuesday. “It is possible that Russia will seek to sway the course of the elections by information and cyber means.”

Moscow could “disseminate propaganda and disinformation in Lithuanian social media,” it said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the suggestion was “absolute nonsense,” adding: “Russia does not interfere in elections in other countries.”

Russia is also suspected of carrying out a number of notable cyberattacks, including a concerted assault on the information systems of another Baltic state, Estonia, in 2007, and an attack that knocked out power stations in Ukraine in 2016. Russia denies being behind any cyberattack.

Special counsel Robert Mueller is also investigating allegations of collusion between Russia and Donald Trump to help him win the U.S. presidential election in 2016 — allegations that both sides deny.

Lithuanian report

The Lithuanian report said Russia was basing more tanks and bombers in the Kaliningrad enclave, which borders Lithuania and Poland, and upgrading its bases there to be able to deploy missiles including the nuclear-capable Iskander.

The report also said there was a growing risk of “unintentional incidents” from increased military maneuvers on the other side of the Russian-Lithuanian border.

The agencies said they had observed Russian intelligence targeting people in Lithuania’s energy sector and trying to hack into control systems to gain the ability to disrupt Lithuania’s electricity supply.

“This is far from our priority,” the Kremlin’s Peskov said. “Recently, in Kaliningrad, Putin opened a gas liquefaction plant, which guaranteed Kaliningrad’s self-sufficiency in energy.”

Lithuania is expanding its liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in Klaipeda and, together with fellow Baltic states Latvia and Estonia, reducing its dependence on Russian energy.

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Report: Briton Held in UAE After Wearing Qatar Shirt

Britain is assisting a British national arrested in the United Arab Emirates, the Foreign Office said Tuesday following reports that a man was being detained for having worn a Qatar football shirt there.

The UAE, along with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt, cut all ties with Qatar in June 2017 over allegations that the tiny, energy-rich state supports Islamic extremists.

The Foreign Office warns in its advice for visitors to the UAE of subsequent new laws.

“Showing sympathy for Qatar on social media or by any other means of communication is an offense,” it says.

“Offenders could be imprisoned and subject to a substantial fine.”

The UAE hosted the recent Asian Cup 2019 football tournament. Qatar beat Japan 3-1 in the final on Friday to win the competition for the first time.

Qatar thrashed the UAE 4-0 in the semi-finals when their players were pelted with shoes and plastic bottles.

The Guardian newspaper reported that Ali Issa Ahmad, 26, had traveled to the UAE for a holiday, bought a ticket for the second round match between Qatar and Iraq on January 22 and wore a Qatar shirt to the game.

“We are providing assistance to a British man arrested in the UAE, and are in touch with the local authorities,” a Foreign Office spokesman said, when asked by AFP about the case.

Ahmad’s friend Amer Lokie said he had called him on Thursday in his one permitted phone call.

Ahmad “says he was arrested and beaten after being accused of wearing a football shirt which promoted Qatar,” Lokie told The Guardian.

Lokie said Ahmad was released but it seemed he had then been assaulted by security forces, “went to the police station to report the assault and was accused of… making false allegations against UAE security officials.”

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Germany’s Merkel Drops Hint of  ‘Creative’ Brexit Compromise

German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday offered a way to break the deadlock over the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union, calling for a “creative” compromise to allay concerns over the future of Irish border arrangements.

The United Kingdom is due under British and European law to leave the EU in just 53 days yet Prime Minister Theresa May wants last-minute changes to a divorce deal agreed with the EU last November to win over lawmakers in the British parliament.

May is seeking legally binding changes to the deal to replace the Northern Irish backstop, an insurance policy that aims to prevent the reintroduction of a hard border between EU-member Ireland and the British province of Northern Ireland.

While Merkel said she did not want the so-called Withdrawal Agreement renegotiated, she added that difficult questions could be resolved with creativity, the strongest hint to date that the EU’s most powerful leader could be prepared to compromise.

“There are definitely options for preserving the integrity of the single market even when Northern Ireland isn’t part of it because it is part of Britain while at the same time meeting the desire to have, if possible, no border controls,” Merkel said.

“To solve this point you have to be creative and listen to each other, and such discussions can and must be conducted,” Merkel said at a news conference with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Tokyo.

Merkel said the Irish backstop issue could be solved as part of a discussion over a separate agreement on the future relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom, offering May a potential way out of the deadlock.

Merkel’s stance on Brexit is driven by an eagerness to preserve the integrity of the EU and its internal market, which are crucial to Germany’s post-war identity and prosperity, while also keeping Britain close to the bloc even after it leaves.

Keen to avoid the economic disruption a no-deal Brexit would bring to Germany’s economy, which slowed sharply last year, Merkel also values Britain as a like-minded partner and wants to keep its security expertise close at hand.

“We can still use the time to perhaps reach an agreement if everyone shows good will,” Merkel said.

Last-minute deal?

Britain’s labyrinthine crisis over EU membership is approaching its finale with an array of options including no-deal Brexit, a last-minute deal, a snap election or a delay.

May said she would seek a pragmatic solution when she tries to reopen talks with Brussels though Brexit-supporting lawmakers in her Conservative Party have warned they will vote against her deal unless there are substantial changes.

In Brussels, a group of British lawmakers met the head of the EU civil service and said Martin Selmayr appeared to indicate that the EU might bind itself to new legal conditions.

While European Commission Secretary General Selmayr, the long-time lieutenant of President Jean-Claude Juncker, had reiterated the EU line that it would not reopen the withdrawal agreement, Labour lawmaker Hilary Benn told reporters: “I got the impression that they might be prepared to consider some additional statement or legal protocol.”

But Selmayr was quick to fire back on Twitter: “On the EU side, nobody is considering this.”

The German EU official said the lawmakers gave “inconclusive” answers when he asked whether any EU assurances could help May win support for her deal.

Selmayr has been in charge of the bloc’s preparations for the event of Britain failing to agree on an orderly withdrawal and his role in meeting the lawmakers was seen by some British commentators as a sign of a harder line from Brussels than that from Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, a former French minister.

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For Migrants in Russia, Shattered Dreams and Uncertain Futures

Long before she became just one of the financially destitute legions of street sweepers that dot Moscow’s bitterly cold winter landscape, Shaknoza Ishankulova had simply wanted to do the right thing.

It was 2008, and the recent Uzbekistan National University graduate was ecstatic to secure a teaching post at a Tashkent high school, finally making good use of her diploma in secondary education.

Twenty-two years old and eager to guide younger Uzbeks toward a better life, she was shaken when Uzbekistan’s notoriously vast culture of entrenched corruption revealed itself in the form of a personal mentor and supervisor — a deputy principal at the school who notified her that, if she wished to keep her job, a full third of her weekly salary would have to be kicked back to him.

It was his cut, he explained, for having hired her in the first place.

Years passed before Shaknoza gathered the courage to broach the issue with the school’s principal, a suspiciously wealthy public servant who promptly dismissed the complaint as naively frivolous.

Taking her cue from the anti-corruption initiatives she had seen in Uzbekistan, marketed in the form of public service announcements since 2005, Shaknoza escalated her complaint to Russia’s Ministry of Education, and was summarily placed on paid leave pending further investigation. 

Two years and a cancer battle later, Shaknoza’s case had wound its way through ministry proceedings, leaving her fate in the hands of her employer, who summarily fired her, demanded reimbursement for the two years of salaried leave, and permanently blacklisted her from any professional employment.

Like many unemployed Uzbek nationals, Shaknoza was lured by Moscow’s abundance of service sector jobs that paid more than similar work in Tashkent. After spending nearly a year as a sweeper, she lucked out by landing a relatively well-paid waitressing job, only to lose the position when a Russian supervisor publicly castigated her for making conversation with foreign diners, an experience she attributed to the ethnic workplace discrimination many Uzbeks face in Russia.

Tall and slender with distinctly Asian facial features and straight shoulder-length hair, Shoksana, appearing older than her 34 years, is now a cashier and produce vendor at one of Moscow’s many 24-hour convenience stores.

Speaking with VOA on a frigid afternoon in Moscow, her bare hands balled in fists as she stood stock still in seemingly arctic gales, the former high school teacher said she has done reasonably well for herself when compared to fellow migrants sleeping 10 to a room on the city’s outskirts.

Making $37 per 24-hour shift, each of which is followed by 24 hours off, she said the salary is enough to share a two-room apartment with three other laborers: two Uzbek men and a woman, with whom she shares the bedroom.

After feeding and clothing herself, she says, she sends a small amount home to her mother.

“But it’s not enough to save anything,” she said, explaining that she lacks the resources to get ahead in Moscow and that, as a blacklisted whistleblower, any path back to Tashkent is surely a dead end.

Millions seek opportunity

By 2017, Russia was home to nearly 12 million migrants — the world’s third largest foreign-born population.

Much like in western European nations and the United States, the large numbers of immigrants have triggered unease, and a majority of Russians have become increasingly intolerant of the newcomers.

A 2018 survey by the Washington-based Pew Charitable Trust showed that nearly 70 percent of Russian nationals felt the country should allow fewer or no migrants in the future.

While many of the migrants from China, eastern Europe and the West possess a broad range of professional skill sets, the vast majority of Russia’s lowest-paid laborers hail from impoverished central Asian countries, of which Uzbeks are the largest group.

This makes them the most visible targets of anti-immigrant vitriol.

Some high-level Russian officials have relayed largely context-free statistics that they portray as an immigrant-fueled crime wave for which Uzbeks in particular are to blame.

“If you create a ranking of criminality, you will find citizens of Uzbekistan at the top,” Moscow chief prosecutor Sergei Kudeneyev told Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper in 2014. “They have committed 2,522 crimes; next is Tajikistan, with 1,745 crimes; and in third place there is Kyrgyzstan, whose citizens committed 1,269 crimes.”

“The unremitting crime rates among foreign citizens are causing serious concern, particularly since crimes of this nature draw a lot of public attention,” Russian President Vladimir Putin told a gathering of top security officials in 2016. During the televised statement, the president demanded a swift crackdown on foreign criminals.

Alexander Verkhovsky of SOVA, the Center for Information and Analysis, a think tank in Moscow, questioned the veracity and transparency of these datasets.

“Any statistics on working migrants are very blurry,” he said. “While there are police crime statistics — or at least crime documentation — that may indicate a given perpetrator’s country of origin, that specific data is never published in full.

“In general, data on crimes is organized by categories of crime, and even whether these crimes may have been committed by or against a foreigner,” he said. But by the time police records are internally digested into statistics and prepared for public presentation via the prosecutor’s office, hard data about specific countries of origin has been scrubbed.

“You never get to see the complete data,” he said.

A 2016 report by Columbia University’s Eurasia.org news site suggests migrants who have committed crimes may have acted in response to a series of new Russian laws that drastically increased living costs.

Migrant work permit requirements unveiled in 2015 required applicants to “undergo a battery of tests for HIV, tuberculosis, drug addiction and skin diseases.” Permit holders, the report says, were also required to purchase health insurance, acquire taxpayer identification numbers, and be tested on Russian language, history and laws.

Failure to satisfy requirements within a month of arriving in Russia subjected migrants to a $152 fine.

“Once migrants have jumped through all the hoops, they must pay 14.5 thousand rubles ($219) for their work permit and another four thousand rubles ($61) every month to renew the document,” the report says. “All told, this costs almost $1,000 per year.”

A December 2018 SOVA report on hate crimes that was compiled from official statistics and field research said although attacks targeting foreigners are decreasing, ethnic migrants are among the most vulnerable to violent attacks on Russian soil.

“People perceived as ethnic outsiders constituted the largest group of victims in 2017,” says the report, which recorded 28 ethnically motivated attacks, down from 44 attacks (7 fatal) in 2016.

“Migrants from Central Asia were the most numerous group in this category of victims … followed by individuals of unidentified non-Slavic appearance,” the report states. “Most likely, the overwhelming majority of these people were also from Central Asia, since their appearance was described as Asian.”

Foreigners targeted

All of the migrants VOA spoke with mentioned that they had been intimidated by racists or nationalists, swindled into weeks of free labor by dishonest employers, or were the victims of robbery.

Oibek Usupov, a construction worker from Tashkent, recounted the time he and his brother accepted jobs at an apartment development, wherein the employer required them to sign contracts to work throughout the winter. They received a small advance up front, followed by a handful of paychecks well below what they were promised.

Once the units began selling, the developer said, they would be reimbursed in full. Then payments stopped and, a week before spring, it was announced the project had been bought out by another developer.

The new boss, Usupov told us, said prior contracts weren’t binding because his company hadn’t authorized them.

“We lost months of back pay,” he said.

Adkham Enamov, an Uzbek artist who lives an hour north of Moscow, says he became stranded in Russia after intermediaries who sold his paintings at a famous Moscow arts bazaar disappeared with the profits.

“At the time, my dream was to see Moscow, to sell my paintings in Russia, but I didn’t know that half of Moscow are artists,” he said. “So my current dream is to see my motherland, to return in good health.”

Emanov, 46, who speaks very little Russian, has a 16-year-old son with cerebral palsy. His purpose in Moscow was to cover the medical expenses stacking up in Tashkent.

And then in early 2018, tragedy struck when his 4-year-old daughter, Nama, died from an undiagnosed illness.

“She was buried without me due to the Muslim tradition,” he said, referring to the Sharia ritual of washing and burying the dead within 24 hours of passing. “Well, I sent some money there. Not much.”

After a long, reflective pause, he added, “I should come back being quite rich, but my dream didn’t come true.”

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Catalans Push to Block Spain Budget Bill, Pressuring Socialists

Catalan pro-independence parties said Monday they would file parliamentary amendments opposing the Spanish government’s 2019 budget proposal, potentially putting at risk the budget and the administration of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialists.

Sanchez’s minority Socialist government came to power last June and holds just a quarter of the seats in parliament, meaning it relies on the backing of anti-austerity Podemos, Catalan nationalists and other small parties to pass laws.

The two Catalan parties, ERC and PDeCAT, said they would file full parliamentary amendments against the budget proposal, which faces its first vote next week, unless Sanchez is open to some of their political demands.

Under Spanish parliamentary procedure, such amendments can block the entire budget bill.

Failure by parliament to approve the government’s 2019 budget bill could prompt a snap election before the next scheduled vote in 2020.

PDeCAT, the party that holds the Catalan presidency, wants the government to launch a nationwide dialogue forum between political parties “to address politically the Catalan issue,” their parliamentary spokesperson Carles Campuzano told Reuters.

ERC, the party that has led recent polls in Catalonia, went further and requested an authorized referendum on the region’s independence.

The trial of 12 Catalan independence leaders starts Feb. 12. Spain’s public prosecutor is seeking prison terms of up to 25 years for the leaders on charges of rebellion and misuse of public funds for their role in Catalonia’s failed 2017 breakaway from Spain.

Feb. 12 is also the last day the two parties could withdraw their amendments over the budget proposal.

On Feb. 14, all proposed amendments to the budget bill will be voted on in a simple majority vote. If they pass, the budget proposal would be effectively rejected, raising pressure on Sanchez to call an election.

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European Countries Call For Presidential Election in Venezuela

Britain, along with Spain, France and Sweden and Denmark on Monday recognized Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido as the South American country’s interim president. 

The European countries want Venezuela to hold a presidential election as soon as possible to end its political and humanitarian crises. 

British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt posted on Twitter: “Nicolas Maduro has not called Presidential elections within 8 day limit we have set. So UK alongside European allies now recognizes @jguaido as interim constitutional president until credible elections can be held. Let’s hope this take us closer to ending humanitarian crisis.”

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said Monday in Madrid that “…we are working for the return of full democracy in Venezuela…”

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told France Inter Radio that the Venezuelan crisis would end “peacefully” with an early presidential election. 

A “free and fair election” did not bring Maduro to office, Swedish Foreign Minister Margot Wallstrom told Swedish broadcaster SVT. 

Denmark’s Foreign Minister Anders Samuelsen tweeted “Denmark recognizes the President of the National Assembly @jguaido as the interim President of #Venezuela until new free and democratic elections take place.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov criticized Monday’s European declarations as “Attempts to legitimize usurped power” and “interference in Venezuela’s internal affairs.”

Maduro on the Spanish television program Salvados, broadcast Sunday said: “We don’t accept ultimatums from anyone. It’s like if I told the European Union: ‘I give you seven days to recognize the Republic of Catalonia, and if you don’t, we are going to take measures.’ No, international politics can’t be based on ultimatums. That was the era of empires and colonies.” 

He also called on U.S. President Donald Trump to refrain from supporting Guaido, saying “You are making mistakes that are going to stain your hands with blood”

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Progressive Politician Seeks Polish ‘Spring’ with New Party

A former lawmaker who is openly gay launched a progressive party in Poland ahead of two elections this year, presenting a program Sunday that includes phasing out coal production and liberalizing the abortion laws.

At an inaugural convention in Warsaw, Robert Biedron announced the new party’s name, Wiosna, or “Spring,” and vowed to work to unify the bitterly divided country. 

“The last years were cold and gloomy. Instead of conversations we got constant conflict; instead of the good of the community, party interests,” Biedron told a crowd of thousands. “Let this finally come to an end. We need a spring that will renew this gloomy landscape.” 

Biedron, 42, has long been the hope of many progressive Poles, thanks to his charisma, energy and relative youth. He got his start in politics as an LGBT activist during the 1990s and became the first openly gay member of parliament in 2011. He most recently served as mayor of Slupsk in northern Poland.

The left-wing political scene in Poland since communism fell in 1989 has been dominated by ex-communists who are now aging and in some cases, have been discredited by corruption scandals. Many of those hoping for a party focused on progressive mainstays like green energy and women’s rights eagerly anticipated the launch of Biedron’s party.

It remains unclear how much support he will be able to muster in an era when right-wing nationalists have gained popularity in Europe. Some of Biedron’s positions also could prove unpopular. 

In a country heavily dependent on coal for jobs and energy, he said he would focus on fighting the associated heavy smog by phasing out coal production by 2035. 

Biedron’s unapologetically secular program included ending the teaching of religion from public schools, a direct challenge to the Catholic Church that holds great sway in Poland. 

Biedron said he wants to give women in the country with Europe’s most restrictive abortion laws the right to terminate pregnancies to the 12th week. Some conservatives already have accused him of trying to make Poland a “civilization of death.” 

“Poland is a woman,” Biedron said. “Her suffering is our suffering.”

At the convention, Biedron presented himself as an alternative both to ruling right-wing ruling party, Law and Justice, and the main opposition party, the centrist pro-business Civic Platform party. He portrayed the new party as a chance for change after years of hostility between the two political camps.

Civil Platform governed from 2007-2015 and oversaw fast economic growth, but Biedron faulted it for ignoring growing economic equality and struggles of many Poles. 

He said his party would raise the minimum pension to 1,600 zlotys ($425) per month, noting some older Poles now get only 1,000 zlotys ($270).

Some activists and critics of the Law and Justice-led government have accused Biedron of further weakening an already divided opposition with poor prospects of unseating the ruling party. 

Biedron told the convention crowd he would continue the legacy of Gdansk Mayor Pawel Adamowicz, a supporter of women and minorities who was fatally stabbed in mid-January amid the heavy ideological animosity.

“We do not want any more of this Polish-Polish war,” Biedron declared. 

However, he also vowed to form a Justice and Reconciliation Commission to hold Law and Justice’s leader and others to account for allegedly violating “the freedom and rights enshrined in the constitution.”

Among those at the convention was 18-year-old Jakub Przybysz. He said he liked Biedron’s goal of separating church and state and legalizing same-sex partnerships that confer some rights. But he sees Biedron confronting an uphill battle.

“Perhaps the time hasn’t come for this yet, but even the smallest change in this direction would be good,” Przybysz said.

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Erdogan: Turkey Has Maintained Contacts With Damascus

Turkey has maintained low-level contact with the Syrian government, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday, even though Ankara has supported rebels who fought for years to topple President Bashar Assad.

Erdogan has described Assad as a terrorist and said several times during Syria’s eight-year conflict that the Syrian leader must go. But with support from Russia and Iran, Assad had recaptured large parts of Syria from rebel fighters, driving them from most of their former strongholds.

Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in December Turkey and other countries would consider working with Assad if he won a democratic election, and last month said Ankara was in indirect contact with Damascus via Russia and Iran.

Erdogan said on Sunday that Turkey also had direct contacts with the Syrian government.

“Foreign policy with Syria continues at a lower level,” he told broadcaster TRT in an interview, adding that intelligence services operated differently to political leaders.

“Leaders may be cut out. But intelligence units can communicate for their interests,” Erdogan said. “Even if you have an enemy, you should not break ties. You may need that later.”

 

 

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Nissan Cancels Plans to Make SUV in UK

Nissan announced Sunday it has cancelled plans to make its X-Trail SUV in the UK — a sharp blow to British Prime Minister Theresa May, who fought to have the model built in northern England as she sought to shore up confidence in the British economy after it leaves the European Union.

Nissan said it will consolidate production of the next generation X-Trail at its plant in Kyushu, Japan, where the model is currently produced, allowing the company to reduce investment costs in the early stages of the project.

That reverses a decision in late 2016 to build the SUV at Nissan’s Sunderland plant in northern England, which employs 7,000 workers. That plant will continue to make Nissan’s Juke and Qashqai models. The announcement Sunday made no mention of any layoffs relating to the X-Trail SUV decision.

“While we have taken this decision for business reasons, the continued uncertainty around the UK’s future relationship with the EU is not helping companies like ours to plan for the future,” Nissan Europe Chairman Gianluca de Ficchy said in a statement.

Less than two months before Britain is scheduled to leave the European Union on March 29, Britain still doesn’t have an agreement on what will replace 45 years of frictionless trade. This has caused an enormous amount of concern among businesses in Britain, which fear the country is going to crash out of the vast EU trade bloc without a divorce deal, a scenario economists predict would hurt the U.K. economy.

The Nissan decision, first reported by Sky News, is a major setback for May’s Conservative government, which had pointed to Nissan’s 2016 announcement that Sunderland would make the SUV — months after the country’s Brexit referendum — as proof that major manufacturers still had confidence in Britain’s economic future.

Nissan’s announced its plans to build the X-Trail and Qashqai models in Sunderland after the government sent a letter to company officials offering undisclosed reassurances about its ability to compete in the future.

British politicians have sharply criticized May’s Brexit deal and voted it down in Parliament.

May’s government has refused to rule out a no-deal Brexit, saying the threat strengthens her hand with EU negotiators. Parliament voted last week to give May more time to try to iron out a compromise with the bloc.

Nissan’s change of heart comes just days after Britain’s carmakers issued a stark assessment about Brexit’s impact on the industry, warning that their exports are at risk if the U.K. leaves the EU without an agreement.

Investment in the industry fell 46 percent last year and new car production dropped 9.1 percent to 1.52 million vehicles, in part because of concerns over Brexit, the Society of Motor Manufacturing said.

The group’s chief executive, Mike Hawes, described the threat of a no-deal Brexit as “catastrophic.”

He says the drop in investment is only a foreshadowing of what could happen if the U.K. leaves the EU on March 29 without a deal.

“With fewer than 60 days before we leave the EU and the risk of crashing out without a deal looking increasingly real, UK Automotive is on red alert,” Hawes said Thursday. “Brexit uncertainty has already done enormous damage to output, investment and jobs.”

 

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Head of Ukraine’s New Orthodox Church Assumes Office

The newly elected head of the independent Ukrainian Orthodox Church has officially assumed office in the capital of Kiev, a month after the church severed its centuries-long ties with the Russian Orthodox Church.

Metropolitan Epiphanius I, 40, was enthroned during a lavish service at St. Sophia Cathedral in central Kiev on Sunday, a month after the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople granted independence to a new Orthodox Church of Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, who is running for re-election in the country’s March 31 presidential race, and his arch-rival Yulia Tymoshenko both attended the ceremony.

In Moscow, the Russian Orthodox Church spokesman on Sunday dismissed the Kiev ceremony as a “pathetic spectacle.”

      

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Pope Francis to Attends Inter-Faith Conference in Abu Dhabi

Pope Francis has made dialogue with Islam one of the cornerstones of his papacy. Since he became pope in 2013, he has visited several countries with large Muslim populations. On Sunday he will become the first Pope to go to the Arabian Peninsula when he visits the United Arab Emirates.

Pope Francis was invited by Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan to take part in an interfaith conference. The pope will spend less than 48 hours in the United Arab Emirates and is due to make only two public addresses during his visit.

Pope Francis released a video message last week ahead of his visit.

He paid tribute to the UAE as “a land that is trying to be a model of coexistence, of human brotherhood, and a meeting place among diverse civilizations and cultures, where many find a safe place to work and live freely in the respect of diversities.”

 

The pope will celebrate an open-air mass in Abu Dhabi’s Zayed Sports City on Tuesday. The stadium can hold 43,000 people but 135,000 tickets have been handed over so thousands are expected to also follow the mass from outside the stadium.

About 10 percent of the population in the United Arab Emirates — nearly one million — are Catholics, most of them foreign workers from Asia.

On Monday, the pope’s day will be entirely dedicated to inter-religious dialogue. He will first visit a mosque, one of the biggest in the world, where he will meet privately with the Council of Elders, an organization based in Abu Dhabi, which aims to promote peace and tolerance among Islamic communities. The Council of Elders organized the Human Fraternity Meeting and Conference where the pope will speak.

The pope said, he is pleased with this meeting offered by the Lord to write a new page in the history of relations among religions and confirm that all are brothers despite our differences.

Pope Francis also said that, “Faith in God unites and does not divide, it draws us closer despite differences, it distances us from hostilities and aversion.”

 

Since his election, the Pope has already visited half a dozen predominantly Muslim nations. He has condemned using violence in the name of God and urged inter-religious dialogue.

The war in Yemen, in which the UAE is involved as part of a Saudi-led coalition, could cast a shadow on the trip.

 

 

 

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Analysts Call Scrapping INF ‘Strategic Catastrophe’ for Kremlin

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday suspended the Cold War-era Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in response to a similar move by the United States on Friday.

“The American partners have declared that they suspend their participation in the deal. We suspend it as well,” Putin announced during a televised meeting with foreign ministers and military brass.

The U.S. vowed to withdraw from the INF Treaty in six months unless Moscow ended what it called violations of the landmark 1987 arms control pact.

Putin said Russia would start work on creating new missiles, including hypersonic weapons, and told ministers not to initiate disarmament talks with Washington.

During the meeting, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused the United States of violating the INF and other arms deals, joining a chorus of Russian defense officials and legislators who condemned Washington for gambling with global security. Yury Baluyevsky, former chief of the General Staff, even said Russia was prepared to respond “militarily.” 

 

Impact assessments vary

Numerous Moscow-based arms control experts, however, offered a more measured assessment of the standoff.

“U.S. withdrawal from #INF doesn’t presage nuclear crisis on the model of early 60s or early 80s, but it ushers in new strategic environment where stability is no longer regulated by arms control agreements,” tweeted Dmitri Trenin, director of the Moscow-based Carnegie Center and a former Soviet army official who was directly involved in U.S.-Russia nuclear talks in Geneva.

“In that [environment], survival requires deterrence [plus communication and] restraint,” he wrote. “Cool heads, above all.”

Independent Russian military analyst Aleksandr Goltz, however, offered a much bleaker view.

“My assessment is that for the next three, four or maybe five years, we’re reasonably safe, as it will take the United States years to design, test and deploy medium-range missiles,” said Goltz. “But make no mistake, we are now witnessing the total destruction of all systems of nuclear arms control.

“The problem is that the INF Treaty is very deeply interconnected with the New START Treaty,” he said, referring to a separate arms pact that limits both countries to fewer than 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads. “If START does not survive, in 2021 we’ll find ourselves in a situation shaping up for the next Cuban missile crisis.”

WATCH: What’s the INF Treaty Dispute About?

Asked whether there’s a chance the INF treaty could still be saved, Goltz said there was none.

“No, absolutely no chance. Because Trump has said he would only continue with the INF Treaty if China joined, and this is completely impossible,” said Goltz, explaining that 90 percent of China’s arsenal is deployed for medium range, implying that Beijing INF compliance would be tantamount to  eradicating its arsenal.

Blaming both countries for the mutual suspension, he said Russia, in his opinion, stood to lose far more in a new arms race.

“This is an absolute strategic catastrophe for the Kremlin,” he said. “We are returning to the situation of the 1970s or early 1980s, where the U.S. can deploy warheads that reach Moscow or St. Petersburg in six or seven minutes, which is just a strategic disaster. I mean, within minutes you can do nothing.”

Arms control expert Alexei Arbatov, a full member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, however, called himself a “hopeless optimist” who called six months “a very long” time to resolve differences.

“U.S. and Russian officials are centimeters apart on key differences,” he said, describing technical discrepancies that violate INF strike range guidelines.

According to the Washington-based Arms Control Association, the treaty requires the United States and Russia “to eliminate and permanently forswear all of their nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometers.”

Arbatov said the treaty could be resuscitated immediately if Russia could prove its missiles are technically INF-range compliant, and the U.S. can prove that anti-ballistic launch systems in Poland and Romania aren’t designed to defend against a Russian nuclear assault on Europe. 

“This has been at the surface for quite a long time … but only political hostilities, intransigence and total distrust” between the countries is impeding a swift resolution. 

Neither side liked treaty

“And I blame both sides,” he added. “Americans have never much cared for the treaty, because it doesn’t really concern their security,” he said, alluding to the fact that the INF strike range includes Russia’s European neighbors, but not U.S. soil.

“And Russians never cared for it because many argued that it required Russia to destroy too many missiles and left the country unable to target American missile defenses,” he said. “Neither side was really interested in saving the treaty, for the wrong reasons, and both sides were mistaken. 

“I only hope that during the next six months, the position on both sides will change.”

Asked whether he anticipated any kind of nuclear standoff reminiscent of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Arbatov was dismissive.

“Unless Russia positions nuclear warheads in Cuba, Venezuela or Nicaragua, then, no, we’re not even close,” he said.

Accusations on both sides 

The U.S. and NATO accuse Russia of violating the INF restrictions by developing land-based, intermediate-range cruise missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads and hitting European cities on short notice, but the Kremlin, which last week displayed its missiles to foreign military attaches in Moscow, says the missiles’ short range puts them outside the INF Treaty.

U.S. officials said there was no way of verifying that information because the missiles have been shown publicly only in a “static display” that gives no indication of their flying distance.

On Saturday, Russia’s Lavrov told Putin that the U.S. has been in breach of INF provisions since 1999, a charge the U.S. denies.

“According to our information, the United States started violating that undated treaty in 1999 when it began trials of combat unmanned flying vehicles with specifications similar to those of ground-launched cruise missiles banned by the treaty,” he told Russia’s state-run TASS news outlet.

Lavrov also castigated the U.S. for a Romania-based anti-ballistic missile system capable of firing Tomahawk medium-range cruise missiles. The United States says that system is designed to defend against “rogue” states such as Iran and provides no protection against Russia’s nuclear arsenal.

The INF has largely deepened Russia’s international isolation, and Russia accuses the United States of inventing a false pretext to abandon the treaty in order to develop new missiles. 

Some information for this report came from AP and Reuters. 

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What’s the INF Treaty Dispute About?

The United States and Russia are making tit-for-tat moves with their participation in a nuclear treaty, and some politicians and analysts see it as a burgeoning arms race. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Saturday that Russia is suspending its participation in the Cold War-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. The Russian move follows similar action Friday by the U.S.

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Poland’s Political Divide Widens More After Mayor Is Slain

Krzysztof Strzemeski watched with unease as a high school friend voiced support for Poland’s nationalist government on social media, followed by hate-filled extremist posts. But when the liberal mayor of Gdansk was stabbed to death in public in January, he could no longer hold back his anger.

“Congratulations for your perseverance sharing right-wing filth,” the 58-year-old university lecturer wrote to his former classmate. The two haven’t communicated since.

Poland’s political fissures have widened in recent months, pitting conservatives — many of them government supporters — against liberal critics who accuse the ruling party of threatening the country’s hard-won democracy by undermining the independence of the judiciary and the media.

In this toxic atmosphere, there has been an increase in hate speech, political threats and, most stunningly, the assassination of popular Gdansk Mayor Pawel Adamowicz, a critic of the ruling Law and Justice Party’s anti-immigrant policies.

After stabbing Adamowicz during a Jan. 13 charity event, the attacker grabbed a microphone and said that was his revenge against an opposition political party that Adamowicz had once belonged to.

Although there have been suggestions the assailant also had psychological problems, some government critics blamed Poland’s heated political discourse, some of it from state television. Commentators had often vilified Adamowicz for his open acceptance of refugees and gays, and his widow said he had been getting death threats, causing the family to live in fear.

Poles have long spoken of “two tribes” in their central European country. Now, increasingly there is talk of a “Polish-Polish war” — a divide that is greater than at any time since the 1980s, when the Soviet-backed Communist regime tried to crush the Solidarity freedom movement by imposing martial law.

The wedge issues that Poland faces are familiar in many other places: immigration and borders, abortion, the relationship of the nation’s mostly Catholic society to Jews, Muslims and other faiths, and the rights of gays and women.

On one level, it seems to be a microcosm of the political struggles elsewhere in Europe and in the United States. But Poland is also one of the European Union’s largest and most economically dynamic countries, and its course will help shape the continent’s future.

Poland’s current government has aligned itself with other populist, conservative or nationalist figures — U.S. President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

The Law and Justice Party won the 2015 election amid Europe’s migration crisis and a weariness with the centrist government that had been in power for eight years. Party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski vowed more help for the poor, a tough anti-corruption stance and a hard line against Muslim migrants, who he said carried “parasites and protozoa” dangerous to the native European population.

After mass street protests against his party’s plans to overhaul the judicial system, Kaczynski turned his language against internal critics, referring to protesters as “the worst sort of Poles” and “national traitors.” His language was widely denounced as reminiscent of the worst of the last century in Europe.

Last year saw a surge in anti-Semitic rhetoric in Poland after the passage of a controversial Holocaust speech law. Some of that was spoken even by public officials and TV commentators, creating a new normal in what seems to be acceptable speech.

On Jan. 27, International Holocaust Remembrance Day, a far-right activist who had been imprisoned for burning an effigy of a Jew in 2015 staged a protest outside the Auschwitz memorial site, saying it was time to “fight Jewry.” Holocaust survivors had gathered for solemn observances not far away.

Muslims, while only a tiny percentage of Poland’s population, have increasingly been taunted, spat on and even assaulted, according to the Never Again association, which monitors such crimes.

Since Adamowicz’s killing, prosecutors have faced criticism for failing to investigate death threats against politicians. Two weeks before his death, the public prosecutor halted proceedings into symbolic “political death notices” that the far-right group All-Polish Youth issued for Adamowicz and 10 other mayors who had pledged support for the integration of migrants.

There also have been dramatic calls on all sides for reconciliation. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has met with opposition leaders and urged more “mutual respect” in public debate.

But state television continues to vilify ideological opponents.

Last week, journalists on a talk show lashed out at Rafal Pankowski, a sociologist and the head of Never Again. One of them called him a “terrible” person, among those “who live from a hatred of their own fatherland.”

Pankowski, who will be honored by the Anti-Defamation League next week for his work fighting anti-Semitism, decried the “climate of hatred in the air” and the fact that taxpayer money was going to fund such “crass propaganda.”

Marcin Makowski, a conservative journalist and commentator, said he believes it’s unfair to put all the blame on the government, recalling instances of harsh political rhetoric used by its opponents that fanned hatred and in some cases seemed to call for violence. When Kaczynski’s brother, President Lech Kaczynski, died in a plane crash in 2010, some even joked about it, Makowski recalled.

“None of them are saints and pretending as such is pure hypocrisy,” Makowski said.

 

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ICC Appeals Chamber Places Conditions on Gbagbo’s Release 

After seven years detained at the International Criminal Court in The Hague, former Ivorian president Laurent Gbagbo and ex-youth leader Charles Ble Goude are free men — but there’s a hitch. 

Presiding judge Chile Eboe-Osuji read out the unanimous verdict of the five-judge appeals panel.  

“The conditions set out in the written judgement are imposed to Mr. Gbagbo and Mr. Ble Goude upon their release to a state willing to accept them on its territory and willing and able to enforce the conditions.”

It’s a small victory for ICC prosecutors, after the court’s stunning acquittal of both Gbagbo and Ble Goude last month. Judges said the prosecution’s case was “exceptionally weak” in trying to link the men to election-related violence in Ivory Coast in 2010 and 2011 that left roughly 3,000 people dead.

​Both ICC prosecutors and the chief lawyer for the victims, Paolina Massidda, had argued for the two men’s conditional release. Massidda warned they presented flight risks and said their unconditional release might impact victims’ safety. 

“Victims remain very concerned about the possibility the commission of further crimes and attempts to compromise the integrity of the proceedings if the defendants are released without conditions,” Massidda said.

Gbagbo’s lawyer Emmanuel Altit unsuccessfully argued that conditional release went against the very principle of his client’s acquittal.

He said liberty is an essential human right, and Gbagbo should be freed since he was acquitted. 

Last month’s acquittal has intensified criticism of the ICC, which has convicted only four people in nearly 20 years of operation. One of them — former Congolese vice-president Jean Pierre Bemba — was later acquitted on appeals. 

Critics say the court is ineffective and overly focused on African cases. Supporters note the so-called “court of last resort” is probing other regions of the world — and say the court has insufficient means to realize a daunting mandate.

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US Set to Exit Key Arms Treaty, Leaves Door Open for Talks

The United States on Friday fired a diplomatic warning shot at Russia, making good on threats to begin its withdrawal from a key arms control agreement and thus taking the next step toward what some politicians and analysts see as a burgeoning arms race.

In a statement, President Donald Trump announced the U.S. was suspending its compliance with the decades-old Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, accusing the Kremlin of willfully breaking the deal.

“For far too long, Russia has violated the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with impunity, covertly developing and fielding a prohibited missile system that poses a direct threat to our allies and troops abroad,” Trump said.

“We will not remain constrained by its terms while Russia misrepresents its actions,” he added.

But later Friday, speaking to reporters, Trump left open the possibility of a deal.

“I hope that we are able to get everybody in a very big and beautiful room and do a new treaty that would be much better,” he said. “Certainly, I would like to see that. But you have to have everybody adhere to it.”

The INF treaty, signed by the U.S. and the Soviet Union in 1987, was the world’s first arms control pact to prohibit an entire class of weapons, banning ballistic and ground-launched cruise missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers (310 to 3,420 miles). 

INF violations

Yet the U.S. has been become increasingly vocal about what it says are blatant Russian violations.

U.S. defense and intelligence officials charge those violations date to at least 2014, when Russia began deploying its 9M729 missile following years of tests designed to skirt the treaty’s constraints.

Now, officials say, Russia is fielding multiple military battalions that are equipped with the missile in question.

WATCH: US Backs Away From Key Arms Treaty

“We must respond,” U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told reporters Friday. “We can no longer be restricted by the treaty, while Russia shamelessly violates it.

“We provided Russia an ample window of time to mend its ways and for Russia to honor its commitment. Tomorrow that time runs out,” he said.

Saturday, the U.S. will provide the Kremlin and other former Soviet states with formal notice of its intent to withdraw from the INF Treaty, triggering a six-month window.

Officials say if Moscow refuses to verifiably destroy the missiles, as is expected, the treaty will terminate, and the U.S. will be free to pursue its own intermediate range, ground-launched ballistic or cruise missiles.

Russian denial 

Russian officials reacted quickly to the announcement, denying any treaty violations, while alleging it is Washington that wants to expand its missile arsenal.

The U.S. withdrawal deals “a serious blow to the international arms control system and the system of nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction, which exist for now,” Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told reporters.

Ryabkov also suggested other arms control agreements, like the New START Treaty, which limits both countries to fewer than 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads, could be in jeopardy.

“What will come next is a huge question,” the deputy foreign minister told Russian television. “I fear that the New START may share the fate of the INF Treaty.  It may just expire on February 5, 2021, without an extension.”

New arms race?

But U.S. officials held firm, insisting the onus is on the Kremlin to ease tensions.

“Let’s be clear: If there’s an arms race, it is Russia that is starting it,” a senior administration official said Friday.

“We simply cannot tolerate this kind of abuse of arms control and expect for arms control to continue to be viable,” the official said. “We cannot permit a scenario where we are unilaterally bound to a treaty, we are denied the ability to have a military capability to deter attacks.”

Concern, support for US action

In a statement issued shortly after the U.S. announced its plans to withdraw from the INF Treaty, NATO said its members “fully support this action.”

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg wrote on Twitter:

At the United Nations, officials expressed concern.

“For the secretary-general, his hope [is] that the parties will use the next six months to resolve their differences through dialogue,” spokesman Stephane Dujarric told reporters. “The INF is a very important part of the international arms control architecture.”

Trump’s decision to withdraw from the INF Treaty also garnered a mixed response from U.S. lawmakers.

“Russia’s repeated violations over the years demonstrate that the INF is no longer in the best interest of the United States,” Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas, lead Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a statement. 

But the top Democrat in the House of Representatives, Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California, was wary.

“The Trump administration is risking an arms race and undermining international security and stability,” Pelosi said in a statement.

“Russia’s brazen noncompliance with this treaty is deeply concerning,” she said. “But discarding a key pillar of our nonproliferation security framework creates unacceptable risks.” 

Few good choices

Still, some analysts caution that Russian President Vladimir Putin has given the U.S. and its European allies few good options.

“Putin’s decision to build weapons that violate this important arms control treaty is another of his attacks on the peace in Europe,” according to Jorge Benitez, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a global affairs research group in Washington.

“Russia is an aggressive military,” he said. “Europe needs to strengthen deterrence to further dangerous behavior from Moscow.”

The U.S. has already started spending on such deterrence — $48 million on research to develop its own intermediate-range, ground-launched missiles. And officials say there have already been some initial discussions with allies.

“We are some time away from having a system that we would produce, that we would train soldiers or airmen or Marines to deploy,” the senior administration official said, adding that for now, nuclear-armed missiles were not under consideration.

“We are only looking at conventional options at this time,” the official said. “Nothing the United States is currently looking at is nuclear in character.” 

The pursuit of the new missiles, though, could also give the U.S. additional options in countering growing threats from China and Iran. 

Neither Beijing nor Tehran was subject to the INF Treaty, and U.S. officials believe each country has more than 1,000 intermediate-range, ground-launched missiles in its arsenal. 

But some experts warn any increase in the number of such missiles, by the U.S. or Russia, will only escalate missile production and tensions in the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region. 

 

VOA U.N. Correspondent Margaret Besheer and VOA’s Wayne Lee contributed to this report.

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Mystery Deepens Over Venezuela’s Gold 

The Kremlin may have helped Venezuela’s embattled socialist leader Nicolas Maduro swap gold for cash, transporting Venezuelan bullion deposited in Moscow to the United Arab Emirates and then flying U.S. currency into the Venezuelan capital, an investigative newspaper has claimed. 

The report in the Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta is adding to the fears of pro-democracy activists in Venezuela that the Kremlin will try to make good on its pledge to stand by Maduro to help him survive a popular uprising against him.

Russian officials have condemned U.S. sanctions imposed last month against Venezuela’s vital oil sector, a move aimed at depriving Maduro of the funds he needs to pay his army, which has so far remained loyal to him. The Kremlin says the sanctions are illegal meddling in Venezuela’s domestic affairs. And it rejects, too, the widespread Latin American and European endorsement of the popular protests against Maduro.

Gold swapped for dollars?

Citing unnamed sources in the United Arab Emirates, the newspaper alleged that on Jan. 29, a Russian-operated Boeing 757 cargo plane took Venezuelan gold stored in Russia’s central bank to Dubai. The bullion was replaced with containers full of U.S. dollars and the aircraft, which is owned by the Russian company Yerofei, took off again and flew via Morocco to Venezuela, the paper said.

The director of Russia’s central bank, Elvira Nabiullina, denied the allegation, saying the bank was holding no Venezuelan bullion.

On Friday, a senior Venezuelan official told the Reuters news agency that Caracas plans to sell 29 tons of gold to the UAE in return for euros and said the sale of the nation’s gold began with a shipment of three tons on Jan. 26, following the export last year of $900 million in unrefined gold to Turkey. But the official said Moscow was not involved in the gold-for-cash operation. 

Social media theories

Turkey has been refining and certifying Venezuelan gold since last year after Maduro switched operations from Switzerland, fearing Venezuelan bullion could end up being impounded. 

The Jan. 29 flight, though, is the second unexplained Russian plane to have landed in Caracas since the high-stakes standoff began between opposition leader Juan Guaido and Maduro. A Boeing 777 belonging to a Russian charter company called Nordwind flew from Moscow’s Vnukovo airport on Monday to the Venezuelan capital, according to flight tracking data. Nordwind normally only flies Russian tourists to vacation destinations in the Mediterranean and southeast Asia.

The arrival of the Nordwind jet in Caracas triggered an avalanche of social media theories about what it was doing in the Venezuelan capital. Some anti-Maduro lawmakers claimed that it brought Russian mercenaries to help guard the socialist leader. One theory that prompted jubilation among street protesters was that it was there to spirit Maduro into exile.

The flight also prompted Venezuelan lawmaker Jose Guerra, who previously worked as an economist in Venezuela’s central bank, to warn in a tweet: “We have received information from officials at the Central Bank of Venezuela: A plane arrived from Moscow, with the intention of taking away at least 20 tons of gold. We demand that the Central Bank of Venezuela provide details about what is happening.”

‘Fake news’

Dmitry Peskov, press spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, told reporters midweek the reports about Venezuelan gold and the Kremlin were inaccurate and urged journalists to “deal carefully with fake news’ of various kinds.” 

He dismissed Guerra’s claims, saying, according to TASS, “Russia is prepared to promote a settlement to the political situation in Venezuela without meddling in that country’s internal affairs. Russia is categorically against any meddling by third countries in Venezuela’s internal affairs.”

For Moscow and Beijing, the high-stakes standoff between Guaido, who declared himself interim president in late January, and Maduro represents a geopolitical headache. Both Russia and China have lent billions of dollars to Maduro. Russia’s oil-giant Rosneft has stakes in five onshore oil projects, according to Bloomberg News, and has loaned the Maduro government more than $7 billion, which is meant to be repaid in oil deliveries.

The Bank of England this week refused a Venezuelan request for the return of more than one billion dollars’ worth of gold it has on deposit. The refusal came after the United States urged Western countries to block the Maduro government from accessing any assets outside Venezuela’s borders.

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US to Announce Its Exit From Cold War Nuclear Arms Treaty

The Trump administration is poised to announce Friday that it is withdrawing from a treaty that has been a centerpiece of superpower arms control since the Cold War and whose demise some analysts worry could fuel a new arms race.

An American withdrawal, which has been expected for months, would follow years of unresolved dispute over Russian compliance with the pact, known as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces, or INF, treaty. It was the first arms control measure to ban an entire class of weapons: ground-launched cruise missiles with a range between 500 kilometers (310 miles) and 5,000 kilometers (3,100 miles). Russia denies that it has been in violation.

U.S. officials also have expressed worry that China, which is not party to the 1987 treaty, is gaining a significant military advantage in Asia by deploying large numbers of missiles with ranges beyond the treaty’s limit. Leaving the INF treaty would allow the Trump administration to counter the Chinese, but it’s unclear how it would do that.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in early December that Washington would give Moscow 60 days to return to compliance before it gave formal notice of withdrawal, with actual withdrawal taking place six months later. The 60-day deadline expires Saturday, and the administration is expected to say as early as Friday that efforts to work out a compliance deal have failed and that it would suspend its compliance with the treaty’s terms.

The State Department said Pompeo would make a public statement Friday morning, but it did not mention the topic.

In a tweet Thursday, the chief spokeswoman for NATO, Oana Lungescu, said there are no signs of getting a compliance deal with Russia.

“So we must prepare for a world without the Treaty,” she wrote.

Withdrawal takes six months

Technically, a U.S. withdrawal would take effect six months after this week’s notification, leaving a small window for saving the treaty. However, in talks this week in Beijing, the U.S. and Russia reported no breakthrough in their dispute, leaving little reason to think either side would change its stance on whether a Russian cruise missile violates the pact.

A Russian deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, was quoted by the Russian state news agency Tass as saying after the Beijing talks Thursday, “Unfortunately, there is no progress. The position of the American side is very tough and like an ultimatum.” He said he expects Washington now to suspend its obligations under the treaty, although he added that Moscow remains ready to “search for solutions” that could keep the treaty in force.

U.S. withdrawal raises the prospect of further deterioration in U.S.-Russian relations, which already are arguably at the lowest point in decades, and debate among U.S. allies in Europe over whether Russia’s alleged violations warrant a countermeasure such as deployment of an equivalent American missile in Europe. The U.S. has no nuclear-capable missiles based in Europe; the last of that type and range were withdrawn in line with the INF treaty.

​Global concern

The prospect of U.S. withdrawal from the INF pact has stirred concern globally. The mayor of Des Moines, Iowa, Frank Cownie, is among dozens of local officials and lawmakers in the U.S., Canada, Europe and elsewhere who signed a letter this week to President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin expressing worry at the “unraveling” of the INF treaty and other arms constraints.

“Withdrawing from treaties takes a step in the wrong direction,” Cownie said in a telephone interview. “It’s wasn’t just Des Moines, Iowa. It’s people from all around this country that are concerned about the future of our cities, of our country, of this planet.”

Unleashing new arms race

The American ambassador to NATO, Kay Bailey Hutchison, set the rhetorical stage for Washington’s withdrawal announcement by asserting Thursday that Russia has been in violation for years, including in Ukraine. She said in a tweet and a video message about the INF treaty that Russia is to blame for its demise.

“Russia consistently refuses to acknowledge its violation and continues to push disinformation and false narratives regarding its illegal missile,” she said. “When only one party respects an arms control treaty while the other side flaunts it, it leaves one side vulnerable, no one is safer, and (it) discredits the very idea of arms control.”

Nuclear weapons experts at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said in a statement this week that while Russia’s violation of the INF treaty is a serious problem, U.S. withdrawal under current circumstances would be counterproductive.

“Leaving the INF treaty will unleash a new missile competition between the United States and Russia,” they said.

Kingston Reif, director for disarmament at the Arms Control Association, said Thursday the Trump administration has failed to exhaust diplomatic options to save the treaty. What’s more, “it has no strategy to prevent Russia from building and fielding even more intermediate-range missiles in the absence of the agreement.”

Reif said the period between now and August, when the U.S. withdrawal would take effect, offers a last chance to save the treaty, but he sees little prospect of that happening. He argues that Trump’s national security adviser, John Bolton, is “unlikely to miss the opportunity to kill an agreement he has long despised.”

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