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Ratings agency Fitch said Friday it no longer assumed that Britain would leave the European Union in a smooth transition and said an acrimonious and disruptive “no deal” Brexit could lead to a further downgrade of its sovereign credit rating.

“In Fitch’s view, an intensification of political divisions within the UK … has increased the likelihood of an acrimonious and disruptive ‘no deal’ Brexit.

“Such an outcome would substantially disrupt customs, trade and economic activity, and has led Fitch to abandon its base case on which the ratings were previously predicated.”

Previously Fitch had assumed Britain would leave the EU in March next year with a transition deal in place and the outline of a future trade deal with the bloc.

But Prime Minister Theresa May has struggled to agree to a deal that can secure the backing of Brussels and her own lawmakers in the Conservative Party.

The ratings agency currently rates British government debt at AA with a negative outlook, which means a further lowering of the rating is possible. Fitch cut its top-notch AAA rating on Britain in 2013, citing the outlook for weaker public finances.

Ratings downgrades up to now have had little impact on investors’ appetite for British government debt, which is still seen as a safe asset at times of political or economic turmoil.

But downgrades are embarrassing for May’s Conservative government, which emphasized preserving the country’s AAA rating when it embarked on an austerity program in 2010.
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A Turkish court on Oct. 12 freed American Pastor Andrew Brunson, who had been convicted on terror charges — charges he denies — and imprisoned for two years. Brunson, who is now back in the U.S. with his family, and his wife, Norine Brunson, spoke with Mehmet Toroglu of VOA’s Turkish service about his time in prison and how it felt to be released. 

Q: How did you learn you were being released and how did you feel in that moment — whom would you want to thank? 

Andrew Brunson: Well, I didn’t know that I was going to be released because I was actually declared guilty. I knew that I was going to be declared guilty — it was very obvious from what was happening in the court — but I didn’t know how many years they would get me as a sentence. Would it be five, 10, 15 or more? And when I was told I was found guilty — first of all, I was unhappy at being found guilty because I’m not guilty, but now officially, according to the court, [I was found] guilty of supporting terrorism, which is not at all what we’re about. 

We spent our time, 23 years in Turkey, working in churches and telling people about Jesus Christ, showing his love to people. So, we had nothing to do with any kind of terrorism. We never did anything against Turkey. In fact, we tried to bless Turkey and we often prayed for Turkey. So it was a surprise when we were accused of terrorism. So, when I was, I did not know how many years they would give me, I was very afraid that I would be sent back to prison, but when I heard that they were convicting me, giving me a three-year sentence and then releasing me because of time already served, two years that I’ve been held by the government, then I was very relieved. My wife and I got together, we knelt down on the courtroom floor, and we just prayed together and thanked God that this nightmare, this two-year-long nightmare, was finally coming to an end. 

Norine Brunson: So, who do we thank? First, we thank God because he’s the one that did it. And he did it through the prayers of people in Turkey, in America, in China, in Senegal, in Madagascar — I mean, all over the place. It was very supernatural. And this was all the Christians from all kinds of different churches that for some reason this was in their heart to pray for us. Very supernatural. And it was through these prayers that this happened. 

Andrew Brunson: We believe God did it. But God uses people and he also used people in setting us free. 

Q: Why do you think you were arrested? 

Andrew Brunson: My wife has used the word “the perfect storm,” and what happened is that there had been an attempted coup, and of course that created a lot of tension in Turkey and the government was very, obviously, under tremendous pressure. 

And at the same time, we had been working with Syrian refugees. There was a humanitarian crisis, but many of the ones that came to Izmir and that we ended [up] helping are Kurds, and that made the government uncomfortable because they are concerned about Kurdish terrorism through the PKK. And so they were suspicious of that. 

Also, we are Americans and Christians, and Christians are often seen with some suspicion. And all of that happened at the same time, all of those factors coming together at the same time. We were actually arrested to be deported. When they arrested us, we were told that it was a threat to national security, and normally when that happens — it has happened to other friends of mine — then they are very quickly deported within a day or two. 

But at our arrest someone wrote on our paper, they wrote “terrorism” — and then we knew that this was different. We feared that it would become much more serious, as it did, indeed, and it continued on for two years. 

Q: Would you tell us about the circumstances in the prison? Were you treated well? 

Andrew Brunson: I was treated well by prisoners and I did not complain about the conditions, whether it was cold or crowded or about food or anything like that. Although, some of those [conditions] were difficult. My main complaint was that I’m imprisoned — that my liberty has been taken away and I’m an innocent man. 

As for the people I was with, for example I was in a very crowded cell at Sakran Prison for a number of months. Most of them were very nice to me, and prisoners supported each other. Everyone was of course very afraid. Most people had not been indicted. It was taking a year or longer. 

It took 18 months for me to actually find out what I was being accused of. And during that time of course there was a lot of fear. Why am I in here? How long will I be in here? What am I going to be charged with?  

They were all very conservative Muslims, committed Muslims. And obviously I’m a pastor, so I felt very alone in my faith. There wasn’t anyone else there to pray with me, to support me, to correct me when I’m having wrong thoughts. But even so, there were several of the Muslim prisoners who were very kind to me and encouraged me during very difficult times. 

Q: What did you know about the coup attempt? 

Andrew Brunson: We knew nothing about it until it happened. I had been at a prayer meeting on Friday night and that had gone on for two or three hours. Then I returned to my home and turned on the television, and we saw on the news channels that something unusual was happening. So that’s the first time I heard of it. 

Now, I’ve been accused of helping to plan it, but we knew nothing about it. Shortly after that, I went to the States to visit my children — they were all studying in the States at that time — but then within three or four weeks after the coup, my wife and I returned to Turkey together. So while many people were trying to escape Turkey, because many people were being arrested at that time, we came back very confidently to Turkey because we were innocent and we had no idea that we would be charged with being involved in the coup. 

​Norine Brunson: We had nothing to do with it. So, August 12, we come back very comfortably to Turkey. This is our home. This is where we have our church. These are people we love, and we had no concern whatsoever. 

Andrew Brunson: Yes. 

Q: Well, let’s assume you have a chance to sit down with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. What would you tell him? 

Norine Brunson: We would welcome the opportunity, just like we were able to meet President [Donald] Trump. It was a huge honor, and to be able to pray for him there, and we would really love the opportunity to do that for any president. For any high position in authority. They need prayer. They all need prayer. 

Andrew Brunson: So I would love to meet with him, and I would say to him that God loves him and wants to use him to bless the Turkish people. Leaders need prayer, and as Christians we are told to pray for our leaders. Whatever party they are from, we are told to pray for them. So I would love to meet with him and be able to pray for him in the same way I prayed for President Trump. Just to bless him in the name of Jesus Christ. 

Q: What do you know about other Americans still in jail in Turkey right now, and why do you think you were the only one who was released? 

Andrew Brunson: Well, the main difference between my case and theirs was that I’m an American citizen but they are dual citizens. They’re American and Turkish, and they come from a Turkish background. The American government looks at us all the same. I was told this many times by consular visits. They would tell me, “We look at you all this same.” But the Turkish government looks at dual citizens, a citizen who’s also a citizen of Turkey, [and] they’ll say, “You’re a Turk, so the United States should not be intervening or interfering in any way in this case, because you’re a Turkish citizen.” 

So I think that’s the main issue. It’s not an issue that the United States government gave more importance to me. We were at the State Department yesterday and Secretary of State [Mike] Pompeo said very clearly … that they still continue to work to get the other Americans released. So from the U.S. government side, they’re committed to continue to work on this. The main issue has been that [the other prisoners] are also Turkish citizens, and so the Turkish government evaluates them differently. 

Norine Brunson: This is what we think. This is what we think. 

Q: Is there anything you’d like to add? 

Norine Brunson: No. I mean, we pray for them too, for their spouses. It’s a very difficult situation. 

Andrew Brunson: I would like to say — we’ve said in a number of interviews — that we love Turkey, and this is true. We love the Turkish people, but we want to clarify what this means. 

Obviously, we love Turkish food. We lived in Turkey for many years, and we love many things about the culture. But when we say we love Turkey and the Turkish people, what we especially mean by that is that God loves the Turkish people, and he gave us some of his love that he has for the Turkish people and put it in our hearts. 

So it’s not just that we’re enamored of Turkish culture, although we love and have lived in it. We’re talking about a different kind of love — the love of God that is in our hearts for the Turkish people. So we say we love Turkey in spite of what we’ve been through, and it was a very difficult two years for our family. We can say God loves Turkey and we love Turkey. 
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Spain’s High Court agreed Friday to extradite a Venezuelan woman who was part of the late socialist leader Hugo Chavez’s inner circle to her home country, where she is suspected of money laundering and illicit enrichment.

According to Venezuelan media, Claudia Diaz was Chavez’s nurse when he was being treated for cancer, which ultimately led to his death in 2013, while her husband served as one of his aides de camp.

From 2011 until 2013, Diaz also served as an executive of government fund Fonden — an obscure state-run investment fund which received more than $100 billion in state revenue but produced little if any documentation as to how the funds were spent.

The court said in a statement that Diaz is suspected of using the Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca to create companies through which she acquired illicit assets in Venezuela and abroad, in a case linked to the “Panama Papers.”

Both Diaz and her husband’s names surfaced in the Panama Papers — millions of documents from Mossack Fonseca that were published by the media in April 2016 and which show how the rich and powerful used offshore corporations to evade taxes.

When Diaz was detained in Spain in April, Venezuela’s Chief Prosecutor Tarek Saab wrote on Twitter that his office had requested her arrest due to her appearance in the Panama Papers.

In a written statement, Saab’s office said it opened an investigation into Diaz and her husband in April 2016 and that the two were wanted for money laundering and embezzlement.

Investigators raided their properties and determined their wealth was greater “than they could have acquired from their occupations as public officials,” according to Saab’s office.

According to the High Court statement, Diaz claims the case is politically motivated due to her opposition to Venezuela’s current government. The court dismissed this explanation, saying there was no indication the case was motivated by her political ideas.

The court’s decision, which may be appealed, must now be ratified by the Spanish government.

It is not clear whether Fonden funds were implicated in the alleged money laundering.

A 2012 Reuters investigation found that Fonden ploughed hundreds of millions of dollars into state-run factories that were never completed and have never produced anything.

Human rights groups and Venezuela’s opposition accuse President Nicolas Maduro of holding hundreds of critics of his administration in harsh conditions to stifle dissent. Maduro’s government denies it holds political prisoners.
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Several schools in Poland have canceled activities promoting tolerance for gays and lesbians following government pressure and threats in some places. 

More than 200 schools had planned to take part in “Rainbow Friday,” an anti-discrimination event that a civic rights group, the Campaign Against Homophobia, had promoted in hopes of building greater acceptance for LGBT students. 

Private broadcaster TVN reported that some schools pulled out of the event following an outcry. 

The education minister of Poland’s conservative government, Anna Zalewska, had warned ahead of time that any principals who allowed such events to take place could face negative consequences. She also asked parents to report any such activities to authorities. 

It was not immediately clear how many schools canceled their plans to participate.
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Russia failed on Friday to get the U.N. General Assembly to consider calling on Washington and Moscow to preserve and strengthen an arms control treaty that helped end the Cold War and warned that if the United States quits the pact it could raise the issue in the U.N. Security Council.

President Donald Trump said on Oct. 20 that Washington planned to quit the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty which Mikhail Gorbachev, the last Soviet leader, and Ronald Reagan had signed in 1987. It eliminated all short- and intermediate-range land-based nuclear and conventional missiles held by both states in Europe.

Washington has cited Russia’s alleged violation of the treaty as its reason for leaving it, a charge Moscow denies.

Russia in turn accuses Washington of breaking the pact.

Russia had proposed a draft resolution in the 193-member General Assembly’s disarmament committee, but missed the Oct. 18 submission deadline. On Friday, it called for a vote on whether the committee should be allowed to consider the draft, but lost with only 31 votes in favor, 55 against and 54 abstentions.

“In a year, if the U.S. withdraws from the treaty and begins an uncontrolled buildup of weapons, nuclear-capable weapons, we will be confronting a completely different reality,” Andrei Belousov, deputy director of Russia’s Department for Nonproliferation and Arms Control, told the committee.

He questioned whether the United States was preparing for a war, asking: “Why is it then … do they want to leave the treaty? Why do they want to build up their nuclear capability?”

Belousov said if the United States follows through on its threat to withdraw, then Russia could raise the issue in the 15-member Security Council. However, such a move would not lead to any action as both countries have veto powers in the council.

U.S. Disarmament Ambassador Robert Wood told the committee Washington had spent some five years trying to engage Moscow on the issue of compliance and that Russia had “denied having produced or tested a ground-launch cruise missile.”

“It’s only recently that they admitted to having produced a ground-launch cruise missile but then maintained that it did not violate the range limits of the treaty,” he said.

“The U.S. has been extremely patient with Russia and our hope is that Russia will do the right thing and destroy that ground-launch cruise missile,” Wood said.

European members of NATO urged the United States on Thursday to try to bring Russia back into compliance with the treaty rather than quit it, diplomats said, seeking to avoid a split in the alliance that Moscow could exploit.
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After two years of imprisonment on terror charges, American pastor Andrew Brunson was released Oct. 12, 2018, by a Turkish court. Now home with his family, how does Pastor Brunson view his time in prison? VOA Turkish Service’s Mehmet Toroglu sat down with Pastor Brunson and his wife, Norine Brunson, and filed this report.
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A strong earthquake off a western Greek tourist island early Friday morning was felt as far away as Athens, but no major damage or injuries were immediately reported.

The main harbor for the island of Zakynthos in the Ionian Sea was damaged but still functional, civil protection agency press spokesman Spyros Georgiou said. Power was lost in the island capital and main town, also called Zakynthos, but no major damage was reported there.

“We’re checking out the villages on the island, where there are several older buildings,” he told The Associated Press. “The lack of electricity is a problem, but technicians are trying to restore power.”

Rockfalls, church wall collapses

The fire service said rockfalls were reported in another part of the island, and part of a church wall collapsed on the mainland town of Pyrgos, in the southern Peloponnese area. A couple of people were treated for minor injuries.

Georgiou said a precautionary tsunami warning was issued, although none had materialized two hours after the quake.

The U.S. Geological Survey said the undersea quake was magnitude 6.8 and its epicenter was 33 kilometers (20 miles) southwest of Mouzaki in the southern part of the island. It had a depth of 14 kilometers and struck just before 2 a.m. local time (2300 GMT Thursday).

Greece’s main earthquake monitoring center, Athens’ University’s Geodynamic Institute, measured the magnitude at 6.4, and said it had a depth of 5 kilometers. Measurements of quake strength can vary because of the equipment each institution uses and other factors.

The quake rattled the whole of western Greece and was strongly felt in the capital, 280 kilometers (174 miles) to the northeast of Zakynthos.

Quake-prone region

Greece lies in one of the world’s most earthquake-prone regions, with thousands of quakes recorded every year. But few cause injuries or significant damage. In 1999, a magnitude 5.9 quake on the outskirts of Athens killed 143 people.

Zakynthos has had severe earthquakes in the past and as a result has a very strict building safety code.
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Hundreds outside the main Catholic church in Madrid Thursday protested against the possibility that Spanish dictator Francisco Franco may be laid to rest there.

Demonstrators carried signs denouncing Franco as a criminal and waved photos of him standing next to his ally, Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler.

One protester said he would rather see Franco’s remains tossed into a ditch than placed in the crypt inside the Almudena Roman Catholic Cathedral.

Spain’s government wants to exhume Franco’s body from a mausoleum that glorifies the dictator’s memory. Many dead from the Spanish Civil War, including those who fought against Franco’s forces, are also buried there, many in unmarked graves. Spanish officials have not said where they want to place Franco’s remains.

His family wants to re-inter the body in the Franco family crypt in the cathedral, a proposition many of descendants and victims of the Spanish Civil War find unacceptable.

Franco-led military forces, backed by Hitler’s Nazis and Mussolini’s Fascists, defeated leftist Republicans in the Spanish civil war, from 1936 to 1939.

Franco spent the next 36 years ruling Spain as a military dictatorship, stifling free speech and brutally suppressing the opposition until his death in 1975.

Historians say hundreds of thousands were killed by the regime. Franco’s supporters credit him with saving the country from communism and an alliance with the Soviet Union.
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About 50,000 NATO personnel from 31 NATO and partner countries are springing to action Thursday at the start of the alliance’s Trident Juncture exercise, its largest drills since the end of the Cold War.

The massive exercise takes place in and around Norway and involves about 65 ships, 250 aircraft and 10,000 vehicles.

‘We are ready’

NATO’s Command Senior Enlisted Leader for Allied Command Operations, Command Sgt. Maj. Davor Petek, told VOA in an exclusive interview that the large-scaled defensive games send a “very simple message.”

“We are ready, and we are capable to meet any possible security threat coming to our NATO borders,” he said. “Nobody’s willing to mess with an alliance that has so much potential, so much capability.”

WATCH: Sgt. Maj. Davor Petek

Russia invited

NATO said the drills are not an act of aggression, and the exercise’s commander said the alliance has invited Russia to observe.

“I’m happy that we have observers because they’re going to see that we’re very good at what we do. And that will have a deterrent effect on anybody who wants to cross those borders, but one nation in particular,” U.S. Navy Adm. James Foggo, commander of U.S. Naval Forces Europe and NATO’s Allied Joint Force Command Naples, told reporters at the Pentagon earlier this month.

The exercise comes with Russia and the West still bitterly divided over Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula, with some NATO countries worried Moscow may try to encroach on their sovereign land.

NATO funding

It also comes as U.S. President Donald Trump has slammed NATO for benefiting Europe more than the United States.

NATO members have committed to spend at least 2 percent of their GDP on defense by 2024, but just nine of the military alliance’s 29 members are expected to reach or surpass that amount this year.

Petek told VOA Trident Juncture helps display NATO’s readiness and its commitment to stick together.

“It’s just an alliance that’s been there for a long, long time — over 70 years — but I’d say it was never probably as active and determined as it is right now in this point of time,” he said.

Trident Juncture is expected to run through Nov. 7.
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Russian State Duma lawmakers on Tuesday passed new legislation that would expand the federal government’s ability to ban foreign nongovernmental organizations accused of meddling in Russian elections. 

The legislation builds on a series of Russian laws that in 2012 began targeting “undesirable” activities, mainly by foreign advocacy groups, nonprofit organizations and news media outlets. The “undesirable” designation bans them from operating inside Russia, with any violation punishable by fines and jail time. 

In 2017, Russia warned nine U.S. government-funded news operations — including Voice of America, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and seven separate regional outlets — that they would probably be designated “foreign agents” under legislation drafted in retaliation against a U.S. demand that Kremlin-supported television station RT register as such in the United States.  

Under Russian law, being declared a foreign agent requires designees to regularly disclose their objectives, full details of finances, funding sources and staffing. 

According to Riga-based online news portal Meduza, Tuesday’s expanded legislation, authored by deputies of all legislative parties, defines election meddling as any activities that “create obstacles to nominating or electing candidates or voting in referenda.” 

“Russian citizens who continue working for these banned groups risk criminal penalties,” Meduza reported. “Currently, Russia has designated 15 undesirable organizations, including the National Endowment for Democracy, the Open Society Foundation, the Open Russia Civic Movement and the German Marshall Fund.” 

Stephen Nix, Eurasia director for the Washington-headquartered International Republican Institute, said the latest legislation further restricted civil society space and open dialogue in Russia. 

“IRI closed our office in Moscow a few years prior to receiving the ‘undesirable’ designation in 2016, so it did not directly affect our work, since we had already left the country,” Nix told VOA’s Russian service in a prepared statement Wednesday.  

“In recent years, the Kremlin’s practice of issuing these designations has severely undermined the already limited civil society space in Russia,” he added. “This most recent bill is a clear attempt to deflect attention away from the Kremlin’s brazen and malignant interference in elections abroad as part of its campaign to undermine democracies around the world. Now more than ever, it is crucial that democracies speak out against these practices, the chief victims of which are the Russian people.” 

This story originated in VOA’s Russian service.  
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The European Parliament voted overwhelmingly Wednesday to ban single-use plastic products such as straws, eating utensils and coffee sticks across the European Union.

The measure passed 571 to 53, with 34 abstentions.

If approved by the European Commission — the EU executive — and individual states, the ban would become law in 2021.

Supporters say plastics are a major source of pollution that chokes oceans, litters cities, and can take decades to disintegrate.

Some U.S. cities have moved to ban plastic straws in restaurants after a heartbreaking video of a wildlife rescuer pulling a straw out of a turtle’s bloody nose was posted on the internet earlier this year.

A consortium of European plastics manufacturers called the EU bill “disproportionate” and said banning single-use plastics discourages investment into new ways to recycle.

The EU plastics bill also includes deadlines for reducing or recycling other plastics such as bottles, fishing lines, food wrappers, and cigarette filters.

 
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Dozens of migrants clashed with Bosnian police Wednesday while trying to cross from Bosnia into Croatia and enter the European Union.

Shouting “Open borders!” the migrants surged through one Bosnian police cordon before being stopped by another outside a border crossing in northwestern Bosnia.

Several people appeared to have been hurt amid the skirmishes as the migrants refused to leave and blocked traffic.

“We are refugees,” one man from Iran said. “We want to leave this country.”

Croatian police said they put up a fence on their side of the border to block the migrants from entering. They said two officers were slightly injured by rocks thrown by migrants.

Bosnian police earlier stopped some 100 migrants from getting off a train that arrived in the area early Wednesday. Officers organized their transfer to a migrant center in the capital of Sarajevo.

Police also turned back buses with migrants Wednesday to curb any new arrivals.

“Any increase in the numbers of migrants without adequate housing presents a potential security threat,” said regional police commissioner Mujo Koricic.

Thousands of migrants have been staying in northwestern Bosnia — many camping out in the open — while trying to cross into Croatia and journey onward to other EU countries. War-ravaged Bosnia has struggled with the influx, and some citizens have staged protests to demand a better humanitarian response from officials.

Migrants have walked to the Croatian border to draw attention to the borders remaining closed for people fleeing war and poverty. Dozens, including children, have spent the past two nights out in the open.
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NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Wednesday that allies blame Russia for violating an important Cold War-era missile treaty but he does not expect them to deploy more nuclear warheads in Europe in response.

U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to pull out of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, saying Russia is violating it.

The European Union says the pact is a cornerstone of European security and is urging Russia and the United States to uphold it, but Stoltenberg did not encourage the U.S., the biggest and most influential member of NATO, to stay in the treaty.

“I don’t foresee that allies will deploy more nuclear weapons in Europe as a response to the new Russian missile,” Stoltenberg told reporters at NATO headquarters in Brussels. But he noted that the 29 allies are assessing “the implications of the new Russian missile for our security.”

As tensions mount over Russia’s missile development, the country’s defense minister warned that Moscow could be forced to respond to increased NATO military activities near its western border.

NATO on Thursday officially launches its Trident Juncture war games in Norway, its biggest maneuvers since the Cold War. Russia, which shares a border with Norway, has been briefed by NATO on the exercises and invited to monitor them, but the move has still angered Moscow.

“NATO’s military activities near our borders have reached the highest level since the Cold War times,” Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Wednesday, noting that the war games will be “simulating offensive military action.”

The NATO maneuvers in Norway will involve around 50,000 personnel, 65 ships, 250 aircraft and 10,000 vehicles in hypothetical scenario that involves restoring Norway’s sovereignty after an attack by a “fictitious aggressor.”

The exercises come just weeks after Russia held its biggest post-Cold War military exercises in cooperation with China.

While concerned about Russia’s new missile system, Stoltenberg pointed out that he does not expect a repeat of the so-called “Euromissiles crisis” in the 1980s when the United States deployed cruise missiles in Europe to counterbalance a perceived threat from Russia’s SS-20 nuclear warheads.

The United States insists that the new Russian system — known as the 9M729 — contravenes the 1987 INF treaty and NATO allies agree that is probably the case. The pact between Moscow and Washington bans an entire class of weapons — all land-based cruise and ballistic missiles with a range from 500-5,500 kilometers (310-3,410 miles).

Experts say the Russian system would operate at lower altitudes, making it tough to detect and bring down. It could also reach targets across Europe and even the U.S. west coast if stationed in Siberia.

“The INF is a landmark treaty, but the problem is that no treaty can be effective, can work, if it’s only respected by one” side, Stoltenberg said, noting that the “U.S. is in full compliance.”

He said, based on U.S. intelligence and Russia’s reluctance to discuss the missile system with NATO, “the most plausible explanation is that Russia is in violation of the treaty.”

Asked whether he thought the United States should stick with it, Stoltenberg said: “The challenge, the problem, is the Russian behavior which we have seen over many years.”

In Berlin, Germany’s foreign minister urged his Russian counterpart to do everything possible to preserve the treaty. The foreign ministry said Heiko Maas told Russia’s Sergey Lavrov on Wednesday that this includes clearing up the allegations that Moscow has violated the pact.

The ministry said Maas reminded Lavrov of the significance of the INF for “the European security architecture” — echoing a point that he made a day earlier in a phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Maas called on Pompeo to coordinate further steps closely with Washington’s European partners.

Speaking on a trip to Belarus, Russia’s neighbor and ally, Russian defense minister Shoigu warned that Poland’s plan to permanently host a U.S. army division would affect regional stability and trigger a Russian response. He warned that Moscow will have to “take retaliatory measures to neutralize possible military threats.”

Russia-West relations have sunk to new lows since Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and its support for a separatist insurgency in eastern Ukraine.

In Norway on Tuesday, four U.S. soldiers were hurt, none of them seriously, in a vehicle accident while their convoy was delivering cargo for the military exercise.

 
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The figures tell one story; gay activists fear another.

But nobody disputes that Paris has suffered a string of homophobic attacks in recent months, with gay men set upon in a chic inner-city neighborhood and a trans prostitute shot dead in a popular cruising spot in the French capital.

Yet police say their data show a strong drop in homophobic attacks, so the mood among activists has turned angry, fear of the what-next jostling with frustration at perceived inaction by authorities in a city with a reputation for tolerance.

Sitting in the lounge of Paris’s LGBT Centre, 68-year-old activist Arnaud Rault told Reuters he felt “on edge” following the rise in anti-gay violence.

“We saw August as a signal,” Rault said, referring to the murder of Vanesa Campos, a Peruvian transgender prostitute who was shot dead in Paris’ Bois du Boulogne.

Earlier this month, two men were harassed and beaten by a Paris taxi driver for kissing in his cab in the “city of love.”

The couple immediately pressed charges.

Police have logged a 37 percent drop in reports of LGBT+ related attacks during the first nine months of this year, with 74 incidents reported against 118 in the same period of 2017.

However, activists say the numbers do not tell the whole story as many assaults go unreported.

“[The police figures] are not representative, since not all victims of LGBT violence file an official complaint,” said Joel Deumier, president of SOS Homophobie.

The organization, which runs a free hotline service so LGBT+ victims of assault can report the attacks anonymously, said it had received a 15 percent increase in calls over the past year.

In response, the Paris Prefecture told Reuters that its job was to “collect statistics based on reported assaults.” As for providing any additional numbers, the police said “that’s where the work of NGOs comes in.”

According to SOS Homophobie’s 2018 report on homophobia in France, one LGBT+ person is assaulted every three days.

​Take to the streets

More than 3,000 people — including members of French President Emmanuel Macron’s government — gathered Sunday in Paris to denounce the violence and demand action.

“The government must take concrete measures to contain this wave of homophobia,” said Deumier, who demanded the government increase its annual 500,000 euros ($570,000) budget allocated toward fighting anti-LGBT+ hate.

Addressing the crowd, Guillaume Melanie, president of Urgence Homophobie, an organization that helps LGBT+ people to seek asylum in France, recounted how he had been assaulted just days earlier in an attack that had left his nose broken.

“I didn’t steal anything, I didn’t insult anyone, I didn’t attack anyone. I’m just homosexual,” Melanie told Reuters at the demonstration.

Melanie says he was punched in the face and verbally harassed while leaving a restaurant in the Marais, an elegant Paris district with a strong gay culture.

Shortly after posting about his assault on social media, Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo said the recent series of homophobic attacks “calls for a collective action.”

The deputy mayor Emmanuel Gregoire, who attended Sunday’s rally, said he and Hidalgo would meet a number of LGBT+ associations, police representatives and other government organizations over the coming weeks to work out next steps.

They would seek to establish a response to what he called the “resurgence of homophobic violence.”

Possible extension of gay rights

The attacks come as France considers legalizing assisted reproduction for gay women — a campaign promise by the centrist president. The move would mark a significant extension of gay rights in France, where violent protests preceded the legalization of same-sex marriage and adoption by homosexual couples in 2013.

France’s gender equality minister Marlene Schiappa insisted the Macron government was working to suppress the current spate of violence.

“The state is with them,” she told a television reporter.

“Homophobia is not an opinion, you do not have the right in France to threat, aggress, insult or discriminate against someone because of their sexual orientation.”
…

A prominent nuclear weapons expert says White House threats to pull out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty are diplomatically shortsighted, potentially dangerous and politically risky for President Donald Trump ahead of midterm elections.

Calling the landmark 1987 missile treaty a key part of European and international security for over 30 years, Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Washington-based Arms Control Association, said while there have been concerns about Russia’s compliance with the agreement, U.S. withdrawal would shift blame for the collapse of the treaty from Moscow, “where it belongs,” to Washington.

His comments came shortly after U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and other top Kremlin officials in Moscow.

“The other reason why this is problematic is that the United States and Russia have not exhausted the diplomatic options to resolve this conflict,” Kimball said, pointing out that Bolton’s Moscow visit is only the third U.S.-Russia meeting under the current administration.

“One of the available options that should be tried is mutual transparency visits by Russian experts to U.S. missile interceptor sites in Romania, and U.S. technical expert inspections of the 9M729 missiles that the U.S. is concerned about in Russia,” Kimball said.

U.S. officials, including Trump, accuse Russia of ground-launching an 9M729 cruise missile in violation of the treaty in 2014, a charge long denied by Russia, which says U.S. missile defense systems in Europe violate the agreement.

“Both sides are going to have to try harder to work out a diplomatic solution,” Kimball added. “I think if the two sides have the necessary political will, it’s possible, and the INF treaties can be preserved.”

Bolton, who said he was in Moscow as part of Trump’s commitment to improve security cooperation with Russia, had earlier hinted the arms control pact with Russia is outdated. 

Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and the late U.S. President Ronald Reagan signed the INF accord in 1987, which bans the United States and Russia from building, testing and stockpiling ground-launched nuclear missiles with a range from 500 to 5,000 kilometers (310-3,100 miles).

“Because intermediate-range missiles have a very short flight time to their targets, they’re especially destabilizing,” Kimball told VOA’s Russian Service. “Because there’s very little warning time, it can lead to instability in a crisis, which is why Reagan and Gorbachev eliminated them in the 1980s.”

Addressing reporters in Moscow, Bolton said he believes Cold War-era bilateral treaties are no longer relevant because now other countries are also building missiles. 

At recent political campaign rally in Nevada, Trump said the United States would have to start developing new weapons if Russia and China, which is not part of the INF treaty, do. He then proposed having China join the treaty, an idea that Kimball calls highly unlikely.

The U.S. and Russia, said Kimball, “would love to have China in this INF agreement.”

“Why? Because about two-thirds of China’s nuclear arsenal is deployed on short, medium, or intermediate-range missiles,” Kimball said. “That’s because of geography, because of the way China deploys its relatively small nuclear arsenal. So, that would be a win for the U.S. and Russia, and a loss for China.”

Asked if he expects the administration to withdraw formally, Kimball was skeptical.

“The past few weeks, the United States government has been discussing what to do with respect to the treaty. I think that Bolton, if he’s smart, he would have gone to Moscow to say, ‘Look, we’re not going to let this problem linger for too much longer. We may withdraw from this treaty if you, Russia, don’t take the following steps,'” Kimball said. “But I think Donald Trump — with his penchant for tough rhetoric — may have jumped the gun a little bit when he said on Saturday that we will terminate the INF treaty.”

In Russia, state media such as RIA Novosti cited anonymous sources offering similar interpretations of Trump’s rhetoric, which they dismissed as midterm election rally grandstanding, where politicians can score political points for appearing tough on Russia.

Although European leaders have supported U.S. efforts to bring Russia into compliance with the treaty and called on the Russian government for greater technical transparency with its arsenal, they have largely resisted U.S. withdrawal.

“The INF contributed to the end of the Cold War and constitutes a pillar of European security architecture since it entered into force 30 years ago,” said a spokesperson for the EU foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, in a prepared statement issued Monday.

“Thanks to the INF treaty, almost 3,000 missiles with nuclear and conventional warheads have been removed and verifiably destroyed,” the statement said. “The world doesn’t need a new arms race that would benefit no one and on the contrary would bring even more instability.”

French President Emmanuel Macron raised the issue with Trump by phone the morning after the Nevada rally to “underline the importance of this treaty, especially with regards to European security,” according to a statement by the French ministry that called “on all the parties to avoid any hasty unilateral decisions, which would be regrettable.”

Matthew Kroenig, deputy director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, hailed Trump’s proposed withdrawal as “the right move.”

“Russia has been cheating on this treaty for years, and there was no hope of getting Moscow to return to compliance,” he said in an Atlantic Council blog post. “It doesn’t make sense for the United States to be unilaterally constrained by limits that don’t affect any other country.”

A Putin spokesman said a U.S. pullout from the INF treaty would make the world a more dangerous place, and that Russia would have to take security countermeasures to “restore balance.”

Addressing reporters in Moscow, Bolton said he discussed Russian meddling in U.S. elections with Putin, calling it counterproductive for Russia. He also said Trump looked forward to meeting Putin in Paris on Nov. 11.

This story originated in VOA’s Russian Service. 
…

The Trump administration appears determined to pull out of a key 1987 arms control agreement with Russia, in the wake of talks Tuesday between national security adviser John Bolton and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

U.S. President Donald Trump has accused Russia of violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty by deploying missiles in Europe.

Bolton called Russian violations “long and deep.”

“The threat is is not America’s INF withdrawal from the treaty. The threat is Russian missiles already deployed,” Bolton said. “The American position is that Russia is in violation. Russia’s position is that they are not in violation. So, one has to ask how to ask the Russians to come back into compliance with something that don’t think they are violating.”

Bolton told reporters after the talks that formal notice of a withdrawal would be filed “in due course.”

Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and the late U.S. President Ronald Reagan signed the INF Treaty in 1987. It bans the United States and Russia from building, testing and stockpiling ground-launched nuclear missiles with a range 500 to 5,000 kilometers.

U.S. officials going back to the Obama administration have accused Russia of deliberately deploying a land-based cruise missile to pose a threat to NATO.

Trump said the United States would have to start developing new weapons if Russia and China — which is not part of the INF Treaty — did.

Bilateral treaties outdated?

Bolton hinted the INF deal with Russia might have run its course and that bilateral Cold War treaties might not apply to the current global security environment when other nations, including China, Iran and North Korea, have also developed missiles.

Russia denies violating the INF pact and says it is U.S. missile defense systems in Europe and other unprovoked steps that are in violation.

“On the coat of arms of the United States, there’s an eagle holding 13 arrows in one talon and an olive branch in the other,” Putin reminded Bolton. “My question is whether your eagle has gobbled up all the olives, leaving only the arrows.”

Bolton replied by saying he did not bring any more olives.

In more serious remarks, a Kremlin spokesman said a U.S. pullout from the INF Treaty would make the world a more dangerous place, and Russia would have to take security countermeasures to “restore balance.”

But both sides said Tuesday there was a need for dialogue and work on areas of mutual concern.

Bolton also said Tuesday that plans were being made for Trump and Putin to meet in Paris next month. Both leaders will be in France to mark the 100th anniversary of the end of World War I.

Previous summit

The last meeting between Trump and Putin in Helsinki in July turned out to be a bit of a domestic disaster for Trump. At a post-summit joint news conference, he appeared to accept Putin’s denials of Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. election, contrary to the findings of U.S. intelligence agencies.

Bolton said he also talked about Russian interference in the U.S. elections. He said such efforts do not affect the outcome of the vote and only create distrust between the U.S. and Russia. 

Bolton also laid three separate bouquets of flowers during his visit to Moscow — the traditional wreath at the World War II Memorial by the Kremlin wall; flowers to remember the victims of last week’s massacre of college students at the Black Sea port of Kerch; and flowers at the site near the Kremlin where Russian opposition leader and Putin critic Boris Nemtsov was gunned down in 2015. 
…

At least 20 people were injured when an escalator in the Rome metropolitan system collapsed Tuesday night. 

A video shown on Sky TG24 showed the escalator accelerating suddenly, and the people riding down on it collapsing onto one another. The dramatic footage showed people on the parallel escalator trying to pull others to safety.

The cause was not immediately known. The metropolitan station at Piazza Repubblica near the main Termine train station was closed by investigators. 

“The scene that we found was people piled up at the bottom of the escalator,” said Rome provincial fire chief Giampietro Boscaino. “People one on the top of the other looking for help. They had various injuries caused by the escalator that was twisted — therefore, serious injuries.”

The prefect’s office put the number of injured at 20, mostly Russians in town for a Champion’s League soccer game between CSKA Moscow and Roma. Firefighters said seven were in serious condition. 

The news agency ANSA quoted Rome Mayor Virginia Raggi as saying that witnesses reported people were jumping and dancing on the escalator before the accident. ANSA also quoted city transport agency officials as saying maintenance is carried out on metro system escalators every month.

Separately, one CSKA fan was slashed with a knife during clashes between opposing fans outside the Stadio Olimpico, the ANSA news agency reported.

About 1,500 CSKA fans were attending the match.
…

U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton has hinted that a key arms control pact with Russia may have run its course.

Bolton meets in Moscow Tuesday with President Vladimir Putin to explain why President Donald Trump wants to pull the U.S. out of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.

Trump has accused Russia of violating the agreement.

“We don’t think that withdrawal from the treaty is what causes the problem. We think it’s what Russia has been doing in violation of the treaty that’s the problem,” Bolton told Russia’s Kommersant newspaper. “You can’t bring someone in compliance who does not think they are in breach.”

Bolton said he believes Cold War-era bilateral treaties are no longer relevant because of today’s global security environment, where other countries are also building missiles. 

Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and the late U.S. President Ronald Reagan signed the INF accord in 1987. It bans the United States and Russia from building, testing, and stockpiling ground-launched nuclear missiles with a range from 500 to 5,000 kilometers.

​Trump said the U.S. would have to start developing new weapons if Russia and China — which is not part of the INF treaty — do. 

Russia denies violating the agreement and says it is U.S. missile defense systems in Europe that are in violation.

A Putin spokesman says a U.S. pullout from the INF treaty would make the world a more dangerous place. He said Russia would have to take security countermeasures to “restore balance.” 

Russian National Security Council chief Nikolai Patrushev said after his talks Monday with Bolton that Russia is willing to talk with the U.S. about the mutual complaints against one another in a bid to salvage the INF pact. 

A Russian statement also said Monday Bolton and Patrushev discussed a possible five-year extension of another arms control agreement, the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. That deal took effect in 2011 and is set to expire in 2021.

Defense advocates in Washington say the INF treaty keeps the U.S. from developing a new generation of weapons in a world that faces new global security challenges.
…

U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton says he told Russian officials that its meddling in the 2016 election did not affect the outcome but instead created distrust.

“The important thing is that the desire for interfering in our affairs itself arouses distrust in Russian people, in Russia. And I think it should not be tolerated. It should not be acceptable,” Bolton said Monday on Ekho Moskvy radio.

Bolton is in Moscow for talks with Russian leaders on President Donald Trump’s intention to pull the United States out of a 1987 arms control agreement.

Before joining the White House, Bolton called Russian efforts to meddle in the 2016 election an “act of war.”

Special Counsel Robert Mueller is investigating Russian election interference and allegations of collusion with the Trump campaign — allegations both Trump and Russia deny.

The U.S. has charged a number of Russian citizens and agents with election meddling.

Last week, the Justice Department charged a Russian woman with “information warfare” for managing the finances of an internet company looking to interfere in next month’s midterm elections.

The company is owned by a business executive with alleged ties to President Vladimir Putin.

The woman, Elena Khusyaynova, said Monday she is “shocked” by the charges against her. She calls herself a “simple Russian woman” who does not speak English.
…

A Russian woman accused by the U.S. of helping oversee a social media effort to influence the 2018 U.S. midterm elections mocked the accusations Monday, saying that they made her feel proud.

Justice Department prosecutors alleged Friday that Elena Khusyaynova helped manage the finances of the same social media troll farm that was indicted earlier this year by special counsel Robert Mueller. The troll farm, the Internet Research Agency, is one of a web of companies allegedly controlled by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a businessman with reported ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Khusyaynova responded Monday in a video on the internet news site Federal News Agency, reportedly also linked to Prigozhin. She said she was bewildered by the allegations that she could have influenced the U.S. elections even though she is just a simple bookkeeper who doesn’t speak English.

Justice Department prosecutors claimed that Khusyaynova, of St. Petersburg, ran the finances for a hidden but powerful Russian social media effort aimed at spreading distrust for American political candidates and causing divisions on hot-button social issues like immigration and gun control. It marked the first federal case alleging foreign interference in the 2018 midterm elections.

“I was surprised and shocked, but then my heart filled with pride,” Khusyaynova said. “It turns out that a simple Russian woman could help citizens of a superpower elect their president. Dear people of the world! Let’s all help the American people elect such politicians who would behave in a humane way and lead our planet to peace and goodness. Let’s all wish America to become a great and peaceful country again!”
…

The outgoing deputy head of the monitoring mission to Ukraine of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe says newly compiled statistics prove that lack of political will is the only thing allowing near-daily outbreaks of violence to continue claiming lives in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine.

Alexander Hug, whose 10-year OSCE appointment expires this month, also said the very people empowered to halt the conflict — those who signed the Minsk agreement — could make it happen within a matter of hours.

“Fourteen times now, both sides have agreed to recommit to the cease-fire, and every time this happens, daily cease-fire violations plummet from four digits to fewer than 10, and that’s within a single day,” Hug told VOA’s Ukrainian service. “So, the military-technical part of this conflict can end within hours. Overnight. And this isn’t speculation. We have evidenced it with our statistics based on observations made in the aftermath of recommitments.”

Although OSCE reports typically reveal which side has instigated a given episode of violence, Hug said the data also show that assigning blame is futile.

“In black and white, our reports show where and by whom these violations take place,” he said. “When we see heavy weapons in areas where they shouldn’t be — and we’ve seen thousands this year alone, 45 percent in [Ukrainian]-government-controlled areas and 55 percent in [Russian-backed-separatist-controlled] areas — it’s clear beyond any doubt who is responsible for the tanks, the mortars, these multiple rocket launch systems, because we see it and describe it in our reports, and yet the hardware doesn’t move.”

The data also show that pointing the finger in the aftermath of violence is counterproductive, and that amplifying the voices of people most vulnerable to conflict — civilians in proximity to the front lines — has been the most effective way to reduce violence and facilitate a constructive dialogue.

“We have been outlining in sometimes gruesome detail the misery and suffering of civilians along the contact line, and I’m convinced — as are many of my colleagues, if I can speak on their behalf — that only dialogue” between people along the front lines and signatories to the Minsk agreement itself “will bring about a solution to this conflict,” said Hug.

“It’s for the sake of civilians that this conflict must end, specifically because it is civilians that do not believe in this conflict,” he said. “We talk to them, and they tell us it’s not their conflict; they don’t understand why it continues, and all they want is for it to end.”

​Phantom divisions

Upward of 40,000 Ukrainians are estimated to cross the front lines each day, Hug said, indicating that most civilians aren’t heavily invested in the idea of a territorially divided country, which is how the conflict is often framed by international media outlets.

“People on the ground don’t believe in the contact line,” he said. “It is a line that is a harsh reality every day when they have to cross it, but in their minds it doesn’t exist. There are no firm lines of division.

“And with only very few exceptions have I ever seen any hatred developing on either side of the contact line,” he said, adding that that observation includes neighboring communities that have been shelled and shot at daily for years. “When you think of this fact, it’s quite amazing.”

Onus on Kremlin

David Kramer, former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state, said even if Hug’s data supporting an immediate cease-fire were sound, it wouldn’t be sustainable unless the Kremlin saw that it had nothing more to gain from remaining in Ukraine.

“To be clear, the responsibility for stopping the conflict lies in Moscow,” he said. “It lies with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, who to this day refuses to recognize that there are Russian forces in eastern Ukraine.”

Kramer, who is currently senior director for human rights and democracy at the McCain Institute for International Leadership, a Washington think tank, also said increased sanctions would be vital to progress.

“Russia invaded Ukraine, Ukraine didn’t invade Russia,” he said. “So, I do think we need to see a stronger effort from the West to apply more pressure on the Kremlin and its cronies because, absent that pressure, we’re not going to see Putin move.

“Unfortunately, I don’t think we’ll see any movement until after both the presidential and parliamentary elections [in Ukraine],” he added.

Waiting game

Earlier on Thursday, Kurt Volker, the U.S. special envoy for Ukraine, told an Atlantic Council gathering the same thing.

“I think that Russia has essentially decided to wait out the Ukrainian election, see what happens,” he said. “Maybe there’ll be new opportunities that arise to get a more favorable position for Russia. So I think they intend to just play it out.”

Volker’s remarks came shortly after Putin told the Valdai Club in Sochi that he hoped a government more friendly to Russia would emerge from the Ukrainian presidential election, set for March 31.

“We need to wait until the internal political cycles are finished, and I really expect that we will be able to build at least some kind of relations and reach some kind of agreement with a new leadership of the country. We’re ready for that, we want that,” Putin told the gathering of Russian and Western foreign policy experts.

Putin charged that the current government in Kyiv led by President Petro Poroshenko has made its mark by “selling Russophobia and anti-Russian sentiments” to the West.

Volker said Russia appeared more determined than ever to continue backing separatists fighting the government in eastern Ukraine despite extensive efforts by the United States and Western Europe to pressure Russia over its aggression in Ukraine.

Coordinated sanctions critical

The best strategy for the West, Volker said, is to maintain pressure on Moscow through the economic sanctions, which were first imposed on Russia in 2014 over its annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula.

“We will see whether President [Donald] Trump agrees with what Ambassador Volker has to say, but I agree that we need to put more pressure on Russia,” said Alexander Vershbow, a former NATO deputy secretary-general and distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.

“The only way to bring about a solution in conformity with the Minsk agreement is if there more pressure on Russia, because clearly they’re comfortable with the status quo,” he added. “That being said, sanctions can be an overused weapon, so I think what’s more important is to maintain solidarity with the Europeans and find a way to increase sanctions in a coordinated way together. Then the Russians will pay more attention.”

Bogdan Tsioupine of VOA’s Ukrainian service reported from London. Danila Galperovich of VOA’s Russian service contributed reporting from Washington. Some information for this report came from RFE.
…

British Prime Minister Theresa May was seeking to scotch a growing rebellion against her Brexit plans Monday, urging lawmakers to back her and saying a divorce deal with the European Union is 95 percent complete.

May’s office said she planned to tell the House of Commons that “the vast majority” of issues are settled, including the status of Gibraltar, Britain’s territory at the tip of the Iberian Peninsula.

The prime minister also appealed to voters directly with an article in The Sun tabloid, saying “the very last stages of the talks are going to be the hardest of all” but insisting “the finish line is in sight.”

But May faces dissent from her political opponents — and, more worryingly, her own Conservative Party — over her blueprint for separation and future relations with the bloc.

Grumbling has grown since she suggested last week that Britain could remain bound by EU rules for two years or more during a transition period after it leaves on March 29.

London and Brussels say the main obstacle to an amicable divorce is finding a way to avoid customs posts and other barriers on the border between the U.K.’s Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland.

Both sides agree there must be no hard border that could disrupt businesses and residents on both sides and undermine Northern Ireland’s hard-won peace process. But each has rejected the other side’s solution.

An inconclusive EU summit last week ended without a breakthrough on the border impasse. Britain and the EU say they remain hopeful of striking a deal this fall, so that relevant parliaments can approve it before Brexit day.

But May’s room for maneuver is limited by pressure from pro-Brexit Conservatives and her government’s Northern Irish ally, the Democratic Unionist Party, who oppose any more compromises with the EU.

She’s also opposed by pro-EU lawmakers who want to keep close ties with the bloc after Brexit.

Amid talk of a leadership challenge, criticism of May has grown increasingly intemperate. Weekend newspaper headlines saying the prime minister is entering “the killing zone” and faces a metaphorical knifing drew sharp rebukes.

Conservative legislator Sarah Woollaston tweeted to condemn the “disturbing & violent language” used by some of her colleagues.

Conservative lawmaker Grant Shapps said the coming week would be dangerous for May, as pro-Brexit Tories pondered whether to try to oust her.

“It’s fairly high on the scale” of risk, Shapps told the BBC. “But she operates at the upper end of that scale almost every day of her life and remarkably, walks out at the other end.”

With the Brexit clock ticking, fears are growing that Britain could crash out of the bloc without an agreement, an outcome that could create chaos at the borders and in both the EU and British economies.

The Confederation of British Industry says a majority of U.K. firms are poised to implement their Brexit contingency plans by Christmas, steps that could include cutting jobs, adjusting supply chains outside the U.K., stockpiling goods and relocating production and services overseas.

 
…

Turkey’s coast guard says two people died Monday after a boat carrying migrants sank just 50 meters off Turkey’s western coast near Bodrum.

Seventeen people were rescued from the boat, according to the coast guard. 

Three people were able to swim ashore, but two of them died later at a hospital, a coast guard statement said. 

The coast guard said it is continuing search and rescue efforts for possible survivors. 

There were no immediate details about the nationalities of the migrants. 

Turkey is one of the transit countries used by migrants fleeing conflict and poverty in the Middle East and Africa in their quest to seek a better life in Europe.
…

Russia says President Vladimir Putin will ask for an explanation this week from U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton when he visits Moscow about President Donald Trump’s intention to pull the United States out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty because of alleged Russian violations of the pact.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Sunday Trump’s action “would be a very dangerous step,” accusing the U.S. of trying to assume “total supremacy” in the world.

The agreement was negotiated in the late 1980s, signed by then U.S. President Ronald Reagan and former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev. It required the elimination of short-range and intermediate-range nuclear and conventional missiles by the United States and Russia.

In announcing the withdrawal, Trump said Saturday, “Russia has violated the agreement. They have been violating it for many years. And we’re not going to let them violate a nuclear agreement and go out and do weapons and we are not allowed to.”

Trump said the United States will develop the weapons unless Russia and China agree to stop manufacturing their own similar weaponry, although China is not part of the pact.

“If Russia’s doing it and if China’s doing it, and we are adhering to the agreement, that is unacceptable,” Trump said.

Russia has denied violating the treaty.

Britain said it stood “absolutely resolute” with the United States in the dispute, although another American ally, Germany, called Trump’s move “regrettable.”

Gorbachev, now 87, attacked Trump’s action, telling the Interfax news agency, “Is it really so hard to understand that dropping these agreements… shows a lack of wisdom? Getting rid of the treaty is a mistake.”

He said the two countries “absolutely must not tear up old agreements on disarmament. All the agreements aimed at nuclear disarmament and limitation of nuclear arms must be preserved to save life on Earth.”

U.S. officials have previously alleged that Russia violated the treaty by deliberately deploying a land-based cruise missile in order to pose a threat to NATO. Russia has claimed that U.S. missile defenses violate the pact.

Beatrice Fihn, the executive director of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize-winning campaign coalition, said that “by declaring he will leave the INF Treaty, President Trump has shown himself to be a demolition man who has no ability to build real security. Instead, by blowing up nuclear treaties, he is taking the U.S. down a trillion dollar road to a new nuclear arms race.”

Dmitry Oreshkin, an independent Russian political analyst told the Associated Press, “We are slowly slipping back to the situation of Cold War, as it was at the end of the Soviet Union, with quite similar consequences, but now it could be worse because Putin belongs to a generation that had no war under its belt. These people aren’t as much fearful of a war as people of [former Soviet leader Leonid] Brezhnev’s epoch. They think if they threaten the West properly, it gets scared.”

 
…

Catholic bishops are entering their final week of debate over hot-button issues facing young Catholics, including how the church should welcome gays and respond to the clerical sex abuse scandal that has discredited many in the church hierarchy.

The monthlong synod of bishops ends next Saturday with the adoption by the 260-plus cardinals, bishops and priests of a final document and approval of a separate, shorter letter to the world’s Catholic youth.

Some of the youth delegates to the meeting have insisted that the final document express an inclusive message to make LGBT Catholics feel welcome in a church that has often shunned them.

The Vatican took a step in that direction by making a reference to “LGBT” for the first time in its preparatory document heading into the meeting.

But some bishops have balked at the notion, including Philadelphia Archbishop Charles Chaput, who insisted in his speech that “there is no such thing as an ‘LGBTQ Catholic’ or a ‘transgender Catholic’ or a ‘heterosexual Catholic,’ as if our sexual appetites defined who we are.”

But other bishops have expressed a willingness to use the language, though it remains to be seen if the final document or the letter will. Each paragraph will be voted on one by one and must obtain a two-thirds majority.

“The youth are talking about it freely and in the language they use, and they are encouraging us ‘Call us, address us this because this is who we are,”’ Papua New Guinea Cardinal John Ribat told a press conference Saturday.

One of those young people, Yadira Vieyra, who works with migrant families in Chicago, said gays often feel attacked and shunned by the church.

“We know that’s not true, any Catholic knows that’s not true,” she said. But she added bishops need to communicate that “the church is here for them.”

Catholic church teaching holds that gays should be loved and respected but that homosexual acts are “intrinsically disordered.”

The Oct. 3-28 synod has unfolded against the backdrop of the clergy sex abuse scandal exploding anew in the U.S., Germany, Poland and other nations. Some conservatives have charged that a gay subculture in the priesthood is to blame, even though studies have shown that gays are not more likely than heterosexuals to abuse.

Many of the young delegates have insisted that the final document address the abuse scandal straight on, and Melbourne Archbishop Peter Comensoli hinted that it would.

“One of the key things that will be important going forward is not just that there might be a word of apology, of recognition and of aiming for better practices, but that there is action associated with that,” he said.

Chicago Cardinal Blase Cupich said young people are also demanding accountability and transparency from the church’s leadership, which has been excoriated for having covered-up the abuses of predator priests for decades.

He repeated his call, first made in an interview last week with National Catholic Reporter, for bishops to cede their own authority and allow an external process involving lay experts to investigate them when an accusation against them has been made.

“Lay people want us to succeed. People want us to get this right,” Cupich said. “Yes, there’s a lot of anger out there. But beneath that anger there’s a sadness. There’s a sadness that the church is better than this, and that we should get this right.”
…

The vast majority of British firms are poised to implement their Brexit contingency plans by Christmas if there isn’t greater clarity over the country’s exit from the European Union, a leading business lobby group warned Sunday.

The Confederation of British Industry said these could include cutting jobs, adjusting supply chains outside the U.K., stockpiling goods, and relocating production and services overseas.

Fear of no deal

The warning comes amid growing fears that Britain may crash out of the EU in March without a deal on the future relationship. That could see tariffs placed on British exports, border checks reinstalled, and restrictions imposed travelers and workers — a potentially toxic combination for businesses.

“The situation is now urgent,” said Carolyn Fairbairn, the CBI’s director general. “The speed of negotiations is being outpaced by the reality firms are facing on the ground.”

Discussions between the two sides have hit an impasse largely over how to maintain an open border between EU member Ireland and Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom.

Christmas deadline

A summit of EU leaders last week failed to yield a breakthrough and another gathering in November was canceled. December is now the next scheduled summit, leaving the Brexit process tight ahead of Britain’s official departure date. Even if a deal is forged, there are doubts over British Prime Minister Theresa May’s ability to secure the necessary majority in Parliament given bitter divisions on the topic.

“Unless a Withdrawal Agreement is locked down by December, firms will press the button on their contingency plans,” Fairbairn said. “Jobs will be lost and supply chains moved.”

Fairbairn’s warning was based on a survey of 236 member firms tilted toward small- and medium-sized companies with up to 500 employees, undertaken from Sept. 19 to Oct. 8. The survey found that 82 percent of firms will have started to implement contingency plans by December if the Brexit process isn’t any clearer.

Negative impact

The CBI also said that 80 percent of firms say Brexit has already had a negative impact on their investment decisions, more than double the 36 percent recorded a year ago. The survey found that 66 percent of businesses said Brexit has had an impact on the attractiveness of the U.K. as a place to invest, while 24 percent said there had been no impact.

Some big companies are becoming increasingly vexed by the impasse in the Brexit talks. Last week, ahead of the summit in Brussels, pharmaceuticals giant AstraZeneca and carmaker Ford issued statements raising doubts about their investments in Britain.

“Uncertainty is draining investment from the U.K.,” said Fairbairn. 
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France and Germany are condemning the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi inside his country’s consulate in Istanbul. 

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian called Saturday for an “exhaustive and diligent investigation to establish exactly who was responsible” for Khashoggi’s death. Le Drian also said “those guilty of the murder” must be held accountable for their actions.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her foreign minister, Heiko Maas, said in a joint statement Saturday that they condemned the death “in the strongest possible terms.” They went on to say “we expect transparency from Saudi Arabia” regarding the details of Khashoggi’s death and called the available information on the incident “insufficient.”

Explanation required

“Nothing has been explained so far,” Merkel said, “and we need to explain it.”

European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said Saturday that the circumstances around Khashoggi’s death were deeply troubling, and she called for a thorough, credible and transparent investigation.

The statements came in response to Saudi Arabia’s announcement that Khashoggi, who has been missing since entering the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2, died inside the compound after “discussions” between him and people he had met inside the consulate turned into a fistfight.

Saturday’s comments were the first admission by the Saudi government that Khashoggi had died. 

President Donald Trump, who was at a campaign-style rally in Nevada on Saturday, told reporters he was not satisfied with the Saudis’ explanation of what happened to Khashoggi. He added that it was possible Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had been unaware of the death.

Rights group Amnesty International called on Saudi Arabia to “immediately produce” Khashoggi’s body so an autopsy could be performed.

Amnesty’s director of campaigns for the Middle East, Samah Hadid, said the Saudi version of events could not be trusted. She said a U.N. investigation would be necessary to avoid a “Saudi whitewash” of the circumstances surrounding Khashoggi’s death. 

Hadid said such a cover-up might have been done to preserve Saudi Arabia’s international business ties.

Earlier Saturday, a statement from the Saudi public prosecutor carried by Saudi state TV said 18 Saudi nationals had been arrested so far in connection with Khashoggi’s death. The statement also said royal court adviser Saud al-Qahtani and deputy intelligence chief Ahmed Assiri had been fired from their positions.

No cover-up, Turkey pledges

A senior official in Turkey’s ruling party said Saturday that Ankara would never allow a cover-up of the death. 

Numan Kurtulmus, deputy head of the Justice and Development Party, said Turkey would share “conclusive evidence and findings” after an investigation was complete. “It’s not possible for the Saudi administration to wiggle itself out of this crime, if it’s confirmed,” Kurtulmus said.

Turkish officials had said they believed Khashoggi, a columnist for The Washington Post, was killed in the Saudi Consulate after he entered the building to collect paperwork for his scheduled wedding. Saudi Arabia had previously denied the allegations and said Khashoggi left the building shortly afterward.

Late Friday, the White House released a statement acknowledging “the announcement from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that its investigation into the fate of Jamal Khashoggi is progressing and that it has taken action against the suspects it has identified thus far.”

When asked about the Saudi announcement, Trump, who was holding a campaign-style rally in Arizona, told reporters, “It’s a big first step.” However, he said, “We do have some questions” for the Saudis, and added, “We’ll be working with Congress.”

He said he wanted to talk to the Saudi crown prince before the next steps were taken.

When asked whether the Saudis could produce a credible report about the killing of Khashoggi, Trump said, “We’re involved. Turkey is involved. … This has been a horrible event. It has not gone unnoticed.”

Before the Saudi announcement, Trump told reporters Friday that he might consider sanctions against Saudi Arabia over the disappearance of Khashoggi. 

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo discussed Khashoggi’s disappearance during an interview Friday with VOA contributor Greta Van Susteren.

Trump had warned there would be “very severe” consequences if it was learned that Saudi Arabia was behind the disappearance of the journalist, but Pompeo said, “I’m not going to get into what those responses might be. We’ll certainly consider a wide range of potential responses, but I think the important thing to do is that the facts come out.”

Pompeo, who traveled to Riyadh earlier this week to speak to King Salman and the crown prince, told VOA, “I made very clear to them that the United States takes this matter very seriously. That we don’t approve of extrajudicial killings. That we don’t approve of that kind of activity. That it’s not something consistent with American values, and that it is their responsibility as this incident happened in the consulate.

“It’s their responsibility to get to the bottom of this, to put the facts out clearly, accurately, completely, transparently, in a way that the whole world can see,” Pompeo said. “And once we’ve identified the fact set, then they have the responsibility and the first instance to hold accountable those inside the country that may have been involved in any wrongdoing.”
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Thousands of protesters gathered in central London on Saturday to call for a new referendum on Britain’s departure from the European Union.

Organizers want the public to have a final say on the government’s Brexit deal with the EU, arguing that new facts have come to light about the costs and complexity of Britain’s exit from the bloc since Britons voted to leave in 2016.

London Mayor Sadiq Khan from the opposition Labor Party was among those set to address the People’s Vote March, which will culminate at a rally in Parliament Square.

Organizers have brought in some 150 buses to ferry thousands of activists from across the country to the British capital.

Those in favor of pulling Britain out of the EU won by 52 percent in the 2016 EU membership referendum. Prime Minister Theresa May of the Conservative Party has ruled out another public vote on the subject.

Britain is scheduled to leave the EU on March 29, but negotiations have been plagued by disagreements, particularly over the issue of the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. It will be the U.K.’s only land border with the EU after Brexit, for Ireland is part of the EU, and Northern Ireland is part of the U.K.

There are growing fears of a “no-deal” British exit, which could create chaos at the borders and in both the EU and the British economies.

May, speaking at an inconclusive EU summit in Brussels this week, said she would consider having a longer post-Brexit transition period — one that could keep Britain aligned to EU rules and obligations for more than two years after its March departure. Pro-Brexit politicians in Britain, however, saw it as an attempt to bind the country to the bloc indefinitely.

“This week’s fresh chaos and confusion over Brexit negotiations has exposed how even the best deal now available will be a bad one for Britain,” said Andrew Adonis, a Labor member of the House of Lords. “Voters will neither forgive nor forget if [lawmakers] allow this miserable Brexit to proceed without people being given the final say.”

 
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