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U.S. President Donald Trump has congratulated Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on his “referendum victory,” in a narrow vote that would create a powerful executive presidency from the current parliamentary system.

The White House said in a statement the two leaders spoke by phone, with their conversation also including the need to hold Syrian President Bashar al-Assad accountable for a recent chemical attack, the ongoing fight against Islamic State and “the need to cooperate against all groups that use terrorism to achieve their ends.”

Erdogan’s opponents are seeking a revote of Sunday’s referendum, and international monitors have questioned the fairness of the vote, saying it was contested on an uneven playing field.

At a news conference Monday in Ankara, monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said the “No” campaign faced numerous obstacles including a lack of freedom of expression, intimidation and access to the media. The OSCE also alleged misuse of administrative resources by Erdogan.

The controversial decision to allow the use of ballots that did not have an official stamp was also criticized. “The Supreme Election Board issued instructions late in the day, that significantly changed, the validity criteria, undermining an important safeguard and contradicting the law,“ observed Cezar Florin Preda of the monitoring group at the Ankara press conference

Turkey’s Foreign Ministry released a statement saying it was “saddened” by the OSCE’s finding that the referendum fell short of international standards. The ministry called it “unacceptable” and accused the OSCE of political bias.

Under Turkey’s 2010 electoral law, all ballots require an official stamp as a measure aimed at preventing vote stuffing. The main opposition CHP alleges that as many as one-and-a-half million unstamped ballots could have been used, more than the winning margin in the referendum.

The CHP is now demanding the referendum be held again. “The only decision that will end debate about the legitimacy, and ease the people’s legal concerns is the annulment of this election,” declared Bulent Tezcan CHP deputy head, speaking at a press conference Monday.

Prime Minister Binali Yildirim rejected opposition complaints in remarks to a group of legislators Tuesday. He said the opposition “should not speak after the people have spoken.”

Protests were held in several locations across Istanbul and in the capital, Ankara, over the handling of the vote; similar demonstrations were reported in other cities.

The only legal redress the CHP has to overturn the vote is with Supreme Election Board, which made the decision to use the unstamped ballots.

The head of the board, Sadi Guven, strongly defended his decision to allow the controversial ballots, citing high demand for ballots and saying similar procedures had been followed in the past.

“This is not some move we’ve done for the first time,” said Guven, speaking to reporters Monday in Ankara. “Before our administration took over, there had been many decisions approving the validity of unstamped ballots.”

Critics point out the previous use of unstamped ballots was before the introduction of the electoral law banning the practice. Guven said he did not know how many of the ballots were used, and admitted he made the decision after consulting with the ruling AK Party.

Many of the ballots are suspected of being used in the predominantly Kurdish southeast where strict security measures are in force due to an ongoing fight against Kurdish insurgent group the PKK. “No” campaigners in the region, said its observers, were prevented from monitoring many ballot stations. The OSCE also said its monitors too faced restrictions.

While the OSCE refused to be drawn in on whether the shortcomings and difficulties it highlighted were enough to ultimately affect the outcome of the vote, its assessment will likely embolden the opposition and add to growing international concern.

“The European politician will refer to the OSCE; even Americans have said it was going to wait for the OSCE report [before commenting on the referendum result], warns political columnist Semih Idiz of Al Monitor website. “It’s a complication for Erdogan but he will try and turn it to his advantage, by saying the West is up to its old tricks again.” Throughout the campaign, Erdogan played the nationalist card, accusing Western countries of conspiring against him and Turkey. Erdogan described the referendum as a victory against the crusaders.

Europe has so far avoided directly addressing the controversy, choosing to look beyond the result with calls on Erdogan to reach out to his opponents to ease the political polarization. The U.S. State Department called on Turkey to protect basic rights and freedoms as authorities work to resolve the contested results.
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Turkey’s president has rejected international monitors’ criticism of the referendum that approved expanded presidential powers Sunday, saying the vote was the “most democratic election” seen in any Western country.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told supporters Monday outside his palace in Ankara that international election monitors should “know their place.”

He said Turkey will ignore findings by monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, calling the reports “politically motivated.”

Fairness questioned

The monitors have questioned the fairness of Sunday’s referendum, saying it was contested on an uneven playing field. At a news conference in Ankara, monitors from the OSCE said the “No” campaign faced numerous obstacles, including a lack of freedom of expression, intimidation and access to the media.

They also questioned the controversial decision by Turkey’s Supreme Court to allow the use of ballots that did not have an official stamp on them. The main opposition CHP alleges that as many as one-and-a-half million unstamped ballots could have been used, more than the winning margin in the referendum.

Opposition calls for new vote

Bulent Tezcan, deputy head of the CHP demanded the referendum be reheld, saying that would be the “only decision that will end the debate about the legitimacy” and ease people’s concerns.

Unofficial election results from Turkey’s electoral board said the “yes” vote took more than 51 percent while the “no” vote took just under 49 percent. Official tallies were expected to be released within 12 days of the vote.

The approval means the Turkish parliament will be largely sidelined, the prime minister and Cabinet posts will be abolished, and ministers will be directly appointed by the president and accountable to him. The president also will set the budget.

The constitutional amendments also end the official neutrality of the president, allowing him to lead a political party. The president will have the power to dissolve parliament and declare a state of emergency, while enjoying enhanced powers to appoint judges to the high court and constitutional court.

A divided nation

The referendum has divided the nation, with both supporters and opponents arguing that the future of the country is at stake.

Erdogan insists the reforms will create a fast and efficient system of governance that will allow Turkey to face the challenges of fighting terror and the slowing economy. Critics argue the constitutional reforms will usher in an elected dictatorship.

Erdogan spoke by telephone Monday with U.S. President Donald Trump, who according to a White House statement congratulated the Turkish leader on the referendum win.  The statement further said the two men talked about the situation in Syria, both the fight against Islamic State and holding Syrian President Bashar al-Assad accountable for a chemical attack earlier this month.
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The U.S. State Department said Monday it had taken note of concerns by European monitors of Turkey’s referendum and looked forward to a final report, suggesting it will withhold comment until a full assessment was completed.

An initial assessment by the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) said Sunday’s referendum, which granted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sweeping new powers, did not meet democratic norms.

“We look forward to OSCE/ODIHR’s final report, which we understand will take several weeks,” acting spokesman Mark Toner said in a statement.
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As France’s unpredictable presidential campaign nears its finish with no clear front-runner, centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen hope to rally big crowds in Paris with their rival visions for Europe’s future.

Meanwhile, far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, enjoying a late poll surge, is campaigning on a barge Monday floating through the canals of Paris. And conservative candidate Francois Fillon is taking his tough-on-security campaign to the southern French city of Nice, which was scarred by a deadly truck attack last year that killed 86 people.

The race is being watched internationally as an important gauge of populist sentiment, and the outcome is increasingly uncertain just six days before Sunday’s first round vote.

Le Pen’s nationalist rhetoric and Melenchon’s anti-globalization campaign have resonated with French voters sick of the status quo. Macron, meanwhile, is painting himself as an anti-establishment figure seeking to bury the traditional left-right spectrum that has governed France for decades.

The top two vote-getters Sunday of the 11 candidates on the ballot advance to the May 7 presidential runoff. The latest polls suggest that Le Pen, Macron, Melenchon and Fillon all have a chance of reaching the runoff — and as many as a third of voters remain undecided.

Socialist candidate Benoit Hamon insisted Monday that he, too, remains a contender.

“Things are evolving,” he said on Europe-1 radio.

The Socialists’ campaign has suffered from internal divisions and Socialist President Francois Hollande’s dismal image — he’s so unpopular that he declined to seek a second term.

Macron, a former investment banker well connected in the business world, fended off questions Monday about his elitist image on BFM television.

“The money I earned in my life, I earned it. I have not been given gifts,” he said.

He accused rivals of pandering to Russian President Vladimir Putin, and tried to distance himself from Fillon, whose austerity-focused campaign has been damaged by accusations that he misused taxpayer money to pay his wife and children for government jobs that they allegedly did not perform. French investigators are probing the case.

Fillon denies wrongdoing and is focusing instead on security issues that resonate with many voters after two years of deadly attacks across the country. French voters will cast their ballots under a state of emergency that’s been repeatedly extended as new violence has hit.

Macron and Le Pen are holding their last big rallies in the Paris region later Monday.

 
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Germany said on Monday the close result in Turkey’s referendum on expanding Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s powers was a big responsibility for him to bear and showed how divided Turkish society was.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel also said Turkish authorities needed to address concerns about the content and procedure of Sunday’s referendum raised by a panel of European legal experts.

Erdogan declared a narrow victory in the vote, which marked the biggest overhaul of modern Turkish politics. Opponents said it was marred by irregularities and they would challenge the result.

Merkel and Gabriel, whose country has about 3 million residents of Turkish background, said they noted the preliminary result showing a victory for the “Yes” camp. Official results are expected within 12 days.

“The German government… respects the right of Turkish citizens to decide on their own constitutional order,” they said in a statement.

“The tight referendum result shows how deeply divided Turkish society is and that means a big responsibility for the Turkish leadership and for President Erdogan personally.”

They expected Ankara to have a “respectful dialogue” with all parts of Turkish society and its political spectrum after a tough campaign.

German integration commissioner Aydan Ozoguz warned against criticizing Turks living in Germany across the board over how they voted, telling regional newspaper Saarbruecker Zeitung that only around 14 percent of all German Turks living in Germany had voted “Yes” and added that most migrants had not voted.

German integration commissioner Aydan Ozoguz warned against criticizing Turks living in Germany over how they voted, telling regional newspaper Saarbruecker Zeitung that only around 14 percent of all German Turks living in Germany had voted “yes” and added that most migrants had not voted.

EU talks

Germany’s comments were echoed in France, where President Francois Hollande said: “It’s up to the Turks and them alone to decide on how they organize their political institutions, but the published results show that Turkish society is divided about the planned deep reforms.”

On Sunday, the European Commission said Turkey should seek a broad national consensus on constitutional amendments, given the narrow “Yes” majority and the extent of their impact. In March, the Venice Commission, a panel of legal experts at the Council of Europe, said the proposed changes to the constitution on which Turks voted, namely boosting Erdogan’s power, represented a “dangerous step backwards” for democracy.

Merkel and Gabriel pointed to the Commission’s reservations and said that, as a member of the Council of Europe and the OSCE security and human rights watchdog and an EU accession candidate, Turkey should quickly address those concerns.

“Political discussions about that need to take place as quickly as possible, both at the bilateral level and between the European institutions and Turkey,” Merkel and Gabriel said.

In a separate statement, France’s Foreign Ministry called on the Turkish government to respect the European Convention on Human Rights and its ban on the death penalty.

Erdogan told supporters on Sunday that Turkey could hold another referendum on reinstating the death penalty. Such a move would spell the end of Turkey’s accession talks with the European Union.

Austria, which has repeatedly called for halting membership talks, called once more for them to stop.

“We can’t just go back to the daily routine after the Turkey referendum. We finally need some honesty in the relationship between the EU and Turkey,” said Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz, adding the bloc should instead work on a “partnership Agreement.”

During the campaign, Erdogan repeatedly attacked European countries, including Germany and the Netherlands, accusing them of “Nazi-like” tactics for banning his ministers from speaking to rallies of Turkish voters abroad.

Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek told Reuters on Monday he expected the “noise” between Ankara and Europe should die down after the European elections cycle. The French vote for a new president begins next Sunday. Germany votes in September.

 
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Easter dawned in Jerusalem with a sunrise service at the Garden Tomb, where the faithful sang hymns of the resurrection. This holy site seeks to recreate the setting of the burial place of Jesus according to biblical accounts: “Now in the place where He was crucified there was a garden, and in the garden a new tomb in which no one had yet been laid” (John 19:41).

Facing an empty tomb carved into a rock in antiquity, the congregation proclaimed that “The Lord is risen!”

A short time later, bells rang out in the narrow cobblestone alleyways of Jerusalem’s Old City, summoning worshippers to Easter Mass at the 4th century Church of the Holy Sepulcher.

The atmosphere in the cavernous church was mystical. Priests in festive robes chanted the Easter liturgy, as a fragrant cloud of incense rose into a golden rotunda, symbolizing the glory of the resurrection.

Pilgrims from all over the world gathered around the historic stone tomb believed to be the very place where Jesus rose from the dead. The ancient sepulcher has a fresh look: It was renovated for the first time in 200 years after the feuding denominations that control the site decided to bury their differences and allow the repairs in the name of Christian unity.

Pilgrims came from all over the world to experience Resurrection Day in the city where, according to the New Testament, the events took place.

“Being here where Christ was caused me to strengthen my faith,” Travis Cullimore, an American from San Francisco, California, told VOA. “It really provides a good perspective on who Christ is and what other people believe about Christ, and also it causes me to reflect on what I truly believe about Christ.”

There were also groups of Arab Christians in town, including Israeli citizens from Jesus’ hometown of Nazareth and members of the Coptic Orthodox Church from Egypt.

“It’s a holy place and we are blessed to be here,” said Sam Nicola, a Coptic Orthodox Christian from Cairo. “We are very fortunate to be here.”

A week ago on Palm Sunday, ISIS militants blew up two churches in Egypt killing more than 40 people. The bombings, which were not the first, raised further questions about the safety and future of the dwindling Christian community in Egypt.

“I’m not worried, no,” Nicola sighed, taking a fatalistic approach. “Whatever happens is happening, so whatever is meant to be is meant to be. [Terrorist] incidents happen everywhere, not only in Egypt; it happens everywhere.”

Nor was he perturbed by the Israeli police and soldiers who were patrolling the streets armed with pistols and assault rifles. “We have normal relations with Israel and there is no problem for us to come here,” he said. “We feel very safe.”

It was a big turnout this year because the Eastern Orthodox and Western churches, which use different calendars, celebrated Easter on the same day. The holiday was a multicultural experience, and not only because of the different Christian traditions.

The Old City was packed with Jewish pilgrims celebrating the weeklong holiday of Passover, one of three biblical Feasts of Pilgrimage; and the Christians and Jews mingled with the Palestinian Muslim shopkeepers in the Old City bazaar.

“I think all the people have the right to believe in God in their own way,” said Michael Price, an Israeli who came up to Jerusalem for Passover with his family. “The main thing is to coexist and live together in peace.”
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Millions of Orthodox Christians around the world have celebrated Easter in overnight services and with “holy fire” from Jerusalem, commemorating the day followers believe that Jesus was resurrected nearly 2,000 years ago.

This year the Orthodox churches celebrate Easter on the same Sunday that Roman Catholics and Protestants mark the holy festival. The Western Christian church follows the Gregorian calendar, while the Eastern Orthodox uses the older Julian calendar and the two Easters are often weeks apart.

Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I, who is the spiritual leader of the world’s Orthodox Christian faithful, delivered a message of peace during the midnight service at the Patriarchate in Istanbul.

“Our faith is alive, because it is based on the event of the resurrection of Christ,” Bartholomew said.

In his official Easter message issued earlier in the week, Bartholomew urged strong faith in the face of the world’s tribulations.

“This message — of the victory of life over death, of the triumph of the joyful light of the [Easter] candle over the darkness of disorder and dissolution — is announced to the whole world from the Ecumenical Patriarchate with the invitation to experience the unwaning light of the resurrection,” his message said.  

In predominantly Orthodox Romania, Patriarch Daniel urged Christians to bring joy to “orphans, the sick, the elderly the poor … and the lonely.”

Late Saturday, Orthodox clerics transported the holy flame from Jerusalem by plane and it was then flown to other churches around the country. According to tradition the flame appears each year at the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem and is taken to other Orthodox countries.

In Russia, where Orthodox Christianity is the dominant religion, President Vladimir Putin along with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and his wife Svetlana attended midnight Mass at Moscow’s Christ the Savior Cathedral.

The cathedral is a potent symbol of the revival of observant Christianity in Russia after the fall of the officially atheist Soviet Union. It is a reconstruction of the cathedral that was destroyed by explosion under dictator Josef Stalin.

In Serbia, the head of the Serbian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Irinej, held a liturgy in Belgrade’s St. Sava Temple which outgoing president Tomislav Nikolic attended.

Irinej said in his Easter message that “with great sadness and pain in our hearts, we must note that today’s world is not following the path of resurrection but the road of death and hopelessness.”  He also lamented the falling birth rate in Serbia as “a reason to cry and weep, but also an alarm.”

Irinej evoked Kosovo, Serbia’s former province which declared independence in 2008. Hundreds of medieval Orthodox churches and monasteries are located there.

Orthodoxy is also predominant in Bulgaria, Ukraine and Moldova.
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Christians around the world Sunday are celebrating Easter — the day they believe Jesus arose from the dead.  It is the holiest day of the Christian calendar.  

Throngs of the faithful endured heavy security checks to secure a place Sunday in the Vatican’s flower-filled Saint Peter’s Square for Pope Francis’ celebration of Easter Sunday Mass and his delivery of his annual “Urbi et Orbi” —  “to the city and to the world” — Easter address.

Pope Francis denounced how migrants, the poor and the marginalized are treated.  He said they see their “human dignity crucified” every day through injustice and corruption.  

The pope asked in his prayers for peace in the Middle East “beginning with the Holy Land, as well as in Iraq and Yemen.”

He hoped that Jesus’ sacrifice will inspire world leaders to “sustain the efforts of all those actively engaged in bringing comfort and relief to the civil population in Syria, prey to a war that continues to sow horror and death.”

Easter is Christianity’s “moveable feast,” falling on a different date each year.  Western Christian churches celebrate Easter on the first Sunday following the full moon after the vernal equinox.  

This year, however, the date of the Roman Catholic and Protestant observance of Easter coincides with the Orthodox churches.  The two Easters are usually weeks apart with the Western Christian church following the Gregorian calendar, while, the Eastern Orthodox uses the older Julian calendar.  

In Jerusalem, a sunrise service at the Garden Tomb, where worshippers sang hymns of the resurrection, set the biblical tone. Throughout the day, masses of different denominations of both Western and Eastern Christians coexisted in the same holy space.  

Wajeeh Nusseibeh, a Muslim man and member of one of the two families who guard and keep the Church of the Holy Sepulcher in Jerusalem, said there were fewer people visiting the holy place this year than in the past.

Nusseibeh blamed that on tough economic times and security concerns among Middle Eastern Christians, who feel under threat in Iraq and Syria.

“We hope to have peace next year,” he said. “And everyone accepts the other.”

The Old City also had Jewish pilgrims celebrating the weeklong biblical holiday of Passover — the story from the biblical Exodus celebrating the ancient Israelites’ liberation from Egyptian slavery.

Reports say many of the attendees were ultra-Orthodox Jews in dark suits and hats, but they were joined by others including members of the Israel’s Ethiopian Jewish community.

Armed Israeli police and soldiers patrolled the streets near the site of Christ’s tomb, but the atmosphere was calm.

In Egypt, however, authorities beefed up security after a suicide bomb attack on a Coptic Christian church last Sunday left dozens dead and more than 100 wounded.

Easter marks the end of Holy Week, which includes Maundy Thursday, the day of Jesus’ last supper with his disciples. Holy Week also includes Good Friday, the day Jesus was crucified.

In predominantly Orthodox countries such as Russia and Serbia, government and church leaders attended midnight masses and held liturgy.

Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I, the spiritual leader of the world’s Orthodox Christian faithful, conveyed a message of peace during midnight mass at the Patriarchate in Istanbul, Turkey.

“Our faith is alive,” he said.

“This message – of the victory of life over death, of the triumph of the joyful light of the [Easter] candle over the darkness of disorder and dissolution — is announced to the whole world from the Ecumenical Patriarchate with the invitation to experience the unwaning light of the resurrection,” he said.  

Patriarch Irinej, the head of the Serbian Orthodox Church, delivered a gloomier Easter message. “With great sadness and pain in our hearts, we must note that today’s world is not following the path of resurrection but the road of death and hopelessness,” he said.

In Romania, another Orthodox Christian country, Patriarch Daniel asked members of the church to bring “joy to orphans, the sick, the elderly, the poor … and the lonely.”

Photo gallery: Christians around the world celebrate Easter

 
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On Sunday, Turks will vote in a referendum on turning Turkey into an ‘executive presidency’ from the current parliamentary system. If approved, the 18 article constitutional reform package will greatly enhance presidential powers, creating one of the most powerful elected presidencies in the world. Supporters argue it is essential to meet what they call unprecedented threats facing the country. Detractors warn the measures will turn Turkey into an autocracy.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been at the forefront of the yes campaign, argues the reforms will ensure political stability and efficiency following July’s failed coup and continuing threats by both the so-called Islamic State and the Kurdish insurgent group, the PKK.  The wide ranging reforms propose giving the president the powers to appoint ministers, set the budget, issue laws by decrees on a wide range of issues, dissolve parliament and declare a state of emergency. The prime minister and cabinet will also be abolished.

Although Erdogan’s voting coalition of his ruling AK Party and nationalist MHP has accounted for well over 60% of the vote in past elections, most opinion polls indicate only a small lead for yes which is within the polls’ margin of error.

The no campaign

“AKP has massive monetary and propaganda advantage,” notes political consultant Atilla Yesilada,”But my gut feelings is AKP does not have the same confidence it has had in past polls that it will win.” A broad coalition has emerged, drawing normally antagonistic groups under the same banner. Both Kurdish and Turkish nationalists, secular and pious voters are supporting the no campaign, united by worries they believe the reforms would usher in an autocratic regime.

On the last day of campaign, Erdogan is making four speeches in Istanbul. All of the speaking venues are in traditional stronghold’s of his AKP party, leading observers to suggest that the president is trying to shore up his own support.

While opinion polls indicate that AKP supporters strongly backs the constitutional changes, a number of prominent political figures including the former president Abdullah Gul, have not campaigned in support of the reforms.

The proposals also have drawn strong international condemnation,  “A dangerous step backwards in the constitutional democratic tradition of Turkey,” wrote the Venice Commission of the Council of Europe, adding, “The Venice Commission wishes to stress the dangers of degeneration of the proposed system toward an authoritarian and personal regime.”

Erdogan has dismissed such criticism, claiming it’s part of the international conspiracy against Turkey. In the last few campaign rallies, the Turkish president claims the conspiracy is led by the Pope.

“Turkey is increasingly like the La La land. The entire country lives in fiction,” warns consultant Yesilada, “but unfortunately this is what a lot of people believe. That we are under siege, by the Christian crusaders and Erdogan is the only man who is standing between captivity or colonialism.”

Much of the campaign was dominated by diplomatic spats with Germany and the Netherlands over restrictions on Turkish ministers being allowed to campaign among the large diaspora voters. A controversy that is widely believed to have helped the yes campaign.

Concern over the fairness of the campaign is increasingly being voiced. The OSCE which is monitoring the referendum in an interim report ahead of the vote, claimed that “No” campaigners faced bans, police interventions, and violent attacks at their events. The OSCE received a swift rebuke from Erdogan, who bellowed, “Know your place,” at a rally in the provincial city of Konya, he declared the report “null and void”

90% of TV coverage has been devoted to the yes campaign. That followed Erdogan issuing a legal decree under emergency powers that have been in force since July’s coup, abolishing the legal requirement for fair coverage by media companies.

There is growing scrutiny over the vote itself. According to the OSCE, at least 140 representatives nominated by opposition parties to monitor voting have been rejected by Turkish authorities. While several civic organizations that usually monitor polls are among the over 1500 shut down under emergency powers.

With the referendum considered too close to call, scrutiny over the vote is expected to be intense both nationally and internationally. “I’d just say we’re obviously following this issue very closely.,” said U.S. State Department spokesman Mark Toner. “We hope the referendum is carried out in such a way that guarantees and strengthens democracy in Turkey.”
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Regardless of whether Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan succeeds in bolstering his increasingly authoritarian clout in Sunday’s constitutional referendum, one thing is clear: despite a crackdown on his critics and the media, the country is deeply divided, with signs that the gap is growing.

That is bad, not only for Turkey, but for just about everyone with interests in the region, given the country’s economic power and historically strategic location as a bridge between East and West – particularly with Syria’s civil war and the fight against so-called Islamic State raging on its border.

Despite the government’s efforts to severely limit campaigning against the changes that could extend Erdogan’s rule for a decade or more, polls show the election too close to call. That raises the possibility of violence no matter what the final results are, particularly with last July’s military coup attempt fresh in the public’s memory.

Only a few years ago, Turkey seemed well-entrenched as a flourishing democracy and well on the way to joining the European Union. It has huge potential with Europe’s youngest population: 19 million of the 75 million people are ages 15 to 29.

Today, it stands accused of human rights abuses that have included imprisoning more than 45,000 people, among them the leaders and nine other legislators from the second-largest opposition party in parliament, for alleged links to Kurdish terrorists.

Rallies for the “No” camp are banned due to possible terrorism; coverage of its arguments is severely limited. In fact, almost any opposition to the changes proposed in the referendum carries the risk of being labeled as terrorism.

The once-vibrant media have seen their freedoms severely curtailed, with many of journalists jailed. The judiciary’s power has been eroded. Unemployment is at 10.7 percent and up to 25 percent among the young who embody the future.

A shift from America’s sphere of influence to Russia’s seems possible, and the prospects of joining the EU are stalled, if not dead.

Still, Erdogan stands poised to further enforce his will with the proposed reforms, which would change the government from a parliamentary system to what opponents describe as a dictator-like executive presidency, extend presidential power over the judiciary, allow rule by decree and create a loophole in the limit of two five-year terms for the president.

The checks-and-balances system would essentially be gone.

“Erdogan has pursued this greater responsibility despite an increasingly disastrous record of governance,” Freedom House wrote in an analysis of the election.

“For nearly four years, Turkey has been trapped in a cascade of crises – protests, terrorist attacks, crackdowns, a coup attempt, purges and war. The only blow the country hasn’t suffered is an economic crash, but that too seems imminent, as tourism and foreign investment have cratered and Erdogan has subordinated fiscal and macroeconomic management to his short-term political agenda.”

Analyst Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy was equally harsh.

“The country’s deep social chasm gives even the most ardent optimist grave cause for concern,” he said.

Others say they have never seen the country more unstable despite the president’s growing authoritarianism.

After serving as prime minister for 11 years, Erdogan was elected president in August 2014. Despite having no clear mandate – opponents received 48 percent of the vote – he began changing the political landscape quickly, leading to the coup attempt. Since quashing it, he has further consolidated power with those who would choose a near-dictatorship over uncertainty and the rise of terrorism, which has hit Turkey hard.

Crises, including an estimated 3 million refugees from Syria’s civil war, have not undercut his position as Turkey’s most popular politician, based on the early successes of his party and bolstered by his argument that only a strong leader can deal with the country’s problems.

“I have been voting for Tayyip Erdogan for 17-18 years, and he never failed me,” says retiree Ibrahim Yazka, explaining why he will vote “yes.”

“If he wants, he can just sit in the presidential mansion and sign papers; but, this man loves this country so much that he can’t stop. He believes he should do more. That’s why I believe in him.”

The European Union and Council of Europe have voiced concern over the fairness of the campaign, highlighting the fact that it is being carried out under emergency rule introduced after July’s failed coup. Armed troops are prominent in opposition strongholds, creating an air of intimidation.

“Legitimate dissent and criticism of government policy are vilified and repressed,” Council of Europe’s human rights commissioner, Nils Muiznieks, warned about the impact of emergency rule ahead of the campaign.

The friction with Europe has led to open animosity from Erdogan, who said German and Dutch leaders were using “Nazi practices” by resisting his efforts to have his deputies campaign for “yes” votes among the sizable expatriate communities living in neighboring countries.

 
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Pope Francis, presiding at a Good Friday service, asked God for forgiveness for scandals in the Catholic Church and for the “shame” of humanity becoming inured to daily scenes of bombed cities and drowning migrants.

Francis presided at a traditional candlelight Via Crucis (Way of the Cross) service at Rome’s Colosseum attended by some 20,000 people and protected by heavy security following recent attacks in European cities.

Francis sat while a large wooden cross was carried in procession, stopping 14 times to mark events in the last hours of Jesus’ life from his sentencing to his death and his burial.

Similar services, known as the Stations of the Cross, were taking place in cities around the world as Christians gathered to commemorate Jesus’ death by crucifixion.

Pope speaks of shame, hope

At the end of the two-hour service, Francis read a prayer he wrote that was woven around the theme of shame and hope.

In what appeared to be a reference to the Church’s sexual abuse scandal, he spoke of “shame for all the times that we bishops, priests, brothers and nuns scandalized and wounded your body, the Church.”

The Catholic Church has been struggling for nearly two decades to put the scandal of sexual abuse of children by clergy behind it. Critics say more must be done to punish bishops who covered up abuse or were negligent in preventing it.

Violence ‘ordinary in our lives’

Francis also spoke of the shame he said should be felt over “the daily spilling of the innocent blood of women, of children, of immigrants” and for the fate of those who are persecuted because of their race, social status or religious beliefs.

At the end of this month Francis travels to Egypt, which has seen recent attacks by Islamists on minority Coptic Christians. Dozens were killed in two attacks last Sunday.

He spoke of “shame for all the scenes of devastation, destruction and drownings that have become ordinary in our lives.”

On the day he spoke, more than 2,000 migrants trying to reach Europe were plucked from the Mediterranean in a series of dramatic rescues and one person was found dead. More than 650 have died or are unaccounted for while trying to cross the sea in rubber dinghies this year.

Francis expressed the hope “that good will triumph despite its apparent defeat.”

Security increased

Security was stepped up in the area around the Colosseum after recent truck attacks against pedestrians in London and Stockholm. Some 3,000 police guarded the area and checked people as they approached. The Colosseum subway stop was closed.

Francis on Saturday is to say an Easter vigil Mass in St. Peter’s Basilica and on Easter, the most important day in the Christian liturgical calendar, he reads his twice-annual “Urbi et Orbi” (“To the City and the World”) message in St. Peter’s Square. 
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In the face of growing international concern about reported detentions and killings of gay men in Chechnya, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman says the Kremlin does not have confirmed information on the targeted violence.

The respected Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta reported this month that police in the predominantly Muslim republic rounded up more than 100 men suspected of homosexuality and that at least three of them have been killed.

Chechen authorities have denied the reports. But the United Nations’ High Commissioner for Human Rights and prominent international organizations have urged the Russian government to investigate the reported abuse.

But Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists on Friday: “We do not have any reliable information about any problems in this area.”

Novaya Gazeta said in a statement on Friday that it fears for the safety of its journalists after exposing the persecution of gay men in Chechnya, a Muslim-majority republic of Russia.

Novaya Gazeta referred to a large gathering in Chechnya’s main mosque earlier this week which threatened those reporting the story with “reprisals.” The paper’s editor-in-chief, Dmitry Muratov, called on authorities to investigate the threats.

The Russian office of Amnesty International on Friday echoed the concern about the gathering of Chechen elders and clergymen. It reportedly took place several days after the newspaper article and threatened retaliation against those who “insulted the centuries-old foundations of Chechen society and the dignity of Chechen men.”

Amnesty International says it “considers this resolution as a threat of violence against journalists.”

In Washington, former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden issued a statement Friday, condemning the persecution and abuse of gay men in Chechnya.

“The human rights abuses perpetrated by Chechen authorities and the culture of impunity that surrounds them means that these hate crimes are unlikely to ever be properly investigated or that the perpetrators will see justice,” Biden said.

The former vice president also called on the current U.S. administration to live up to its promises “to advance human rights for everyone by raising this issue directly with Russia’s leaders.”
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Russia’s leading state broadcaster has announced plans to boycott the Eurovision 2017 song contest after the host country, Ukraine, barred Russia’s contestant, wheelchair-bound singer Yulia Samoylova, from entering the country.

Kyiv’s decision in late March to ban the 28-year-old Russian paraplegic vocalist stemmed from her June 2015 performance in Crimea, where she appeared without the approval of Ukrainian authorities after Russia annexed the Black Sea peninsula.

Announcing the boycott Friday, Channel One, the state broadcaster that transmits the competition to large Russian audiences, said event organizers had offered the option of sending a different contestant or having Samoylova perform via video link from Moscow.

“In our view this represents discrimination against the Russian entry, and of course our team will not under any circumstances agree to such terms,” said Yuri Aksyuta, the station’s chief producer for musical and entertainment programs.

The contest organizers also condemned the Ukrainian decision but said the event will go ahead.

In March, a Ukrainian security services official told VOA that the ban on Samoylova was “based solely on the norms of Ukrainian law and national security interests.”

The Kremlin called it political pettiness.

“Practically everyone has been to Crimea; there are hardly any people who haven’t been to Crimea,” said Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Peskov also challenged criticism that Samoylova’s nomination was a deliberately provocative act by Kremlin officials — an attempt to make Kyiv appear cruel for restricting participation of a disabled artist.

“We don’t see anything provocative in this,” Peskov said, explaining that Channel One producers had nominated Samoylova independently.

Despite the high-blown kerfuffle, Ukrainian political analyst Mikhail Bassarab told VOA that Ukraine’s law can’t allow for exceptions.

“On the basis of Ukraine and international law, the Russian contestant violated the law,” he told VOA’s Russian service. “Naturally, anybody, including this particular Russian citizen, should be barred entry into Ukraine. There is nothing personal in this position. We can’t make exceptions … [just because] they were nominated for an international contest or have a disability.”

Politics or entertainment?

Ukrainian political analyst Yaroslav Makitra says Kyiv’s ban touches on a broader range of questions.

“It’s critical to decide what matters to us more, politics or entertainment,” he said. “If it’s politics, then we should have said ‘no’ to hosting Eurovision. … But if we want to promote the Ukraine across the globe, then we need to seek legislative and legal opportunities that would allow the Russian contestants to come to Ukraine.”

Otherwise, he said, Kyiv risks turning Eurovision into a competition of political finger-pointing.

Samoylova, a 2013 runner-up in the Russian version of The X Factor, who also performed at the opening ceremony of the 2014 Winter Paralympics, says that if she were permitted to perform, political tensions would be far from her mind.

“I’m simply not thinking about that. It is all out of the mix and it’s not very important,” she said. “I sing and my goal is to sing well, to represent Russia and not to embarrass myself.”

Frank Dieter Freiling, chairman of Eurovision’s steering committee, issued a statement Friday condemning Kyiv’s decision to ban Samoylova on the ground that it violates Eurovision’s ethos as a nonpolitical event.

“However, preparations continue apace for the Eurovision Song Contest in the host city, Kyiv. Our top priority remains to produce a spectacular Eurovision Song Contest.”

Dima Bilan was the last Russian to win Eurovision in 2008. The 62nd international song contest will be held in May in Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital.

Svetlana Cunningham translated from Russian. This report was produced in collaboration with VOA’s Russian service. Some information is from Reuters.
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The U.S. Air Force will this weekend deploy a small number of F-35A fighter jets to Europe for several weeks of training with other U.S. and NATO military aircraft, the Pentagon said Friday.

In a statement, the Pentagon said that the deployment would allow the U.S. Air Force to “further demonstrate the operational capabilities” of the stealth jet. It did not say where the aircraft would be sent.

The F-35, which is the Pentagon’s costliest arms program, has been dogged by problems. The Pentagon’s chief arms buyer once described as “acquisition malpractice” the decision to produce jets before completing development.

During last year’s presidential election campaign, Donald Trump criticized Lockheed Martin Corp. for the F-35’s cost overruns. Days after taking office in January, Trump announced his administration had been able to cut $600 million from the latest U.S. deal to buy about 90 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters.

The United States is expected to spend $391 billion over 15 years to buy about 2,443 of the F-35 aircraft.

F-35s are in use by the U.S. Air Force, Marine Corps and Navy, and by Australia, Britain, Norway, Italy, the Netherlands and Israel. Japan took delivery of its first jet in December.
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Turks will vote on a constitutional referendum Sunday on whether to transform their government from the current parliamentary system into a powerful executive presidency. The issue has split Turkey down the middle: critics accuse President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of trying to create a dictatorship, while his supporters claim the changes will protect the will of the people. Dorian Jones reports from Istanbul on the last days of the campaign.
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International organizations are demanding Russia investigate the abduction, detention and killing of gay and bisexual men in the country’s southern republic of Chechnya.

United Nations human rights experts on Thursday called on Russian authorities to “put an end to the persecution of people perceived to be gay or bisexual in the Chechen Republic who are living in a climate of fear fueled by homophobic speeches by local authorities.”

“It is crucial that reports of abductions, unlawful detentions, torture, beatings and killings of men perceived to be gay or bisexual are investigated thoroughly,” they added.

The appeals follow reports in the respected Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta that police in the predominantly Muslim republic of Chechnya have rounded up more than 100 men suspected of homosexuality and that at least three of them have been killed.

Chechen authorities have denied the reports, while a spokesman for leader Ramzan Kadyrov insisted there were no gay people in Chechnya.

“Nobody can detain or harass anyone who is simply not present in the republic,” Alvi Karimov told the Interfax news agency. “If such people existed in Chechnya, law enforcement would not have to worry about them since their own relatives would have sent them to where they could never return.”

Separately, the director of the human rights office at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Michael Georg Link, said Thursday that Moscow must “urgently investigate the alleged disappearance, torture and other ill-treatment” of gay men in Chechnya.

Novaya Gazeta also reported this month that Chechen authorities are running secret prisons, branded “concentration camps,” in the town of Argun where men suspected of being gay are kept and tortured.

After two separatist wars in the 1990s, predominantly Muslim Chechnya became increasingly conservative under late President Akhmat Kadyrov and then his son Ramzan.
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As the United States and Russia clash on Syria, another war-torn nation could play out as a renewed theater for the U.S.-Russia rivalry: Afghanistan.

Thursday, U.S. forces dropped what was being called the largest non-nuclear bomb on a reported Islamic State militant complex in the eastern Afghan province of Nangarhar.

The U.S. strike came a day before Russia is to host multi-nation talks on prospects for Afghan security and national reconciliation, the third such round since December.

Eleven countries are set to take part in Friday’s discussions in Moscow, including Afghanistan, China, Iran, Pakistan and India. Former Soviet Central Asian states have been invited to attend for the first time.

The Afghan Taliban said Thursday that they would not take part.

“We cannot call these negotiations [in Moscow] as a dialogue for the restoration of peace in Afghanistan,” Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told VOA. “This meeting stems from political agendas of the countries who are organizing it. This has really nothing to do with us, nor do we support it.”

The spokesman reiterated insurgents’ traditional stance that U.S.-led foreign troops would have to leave Afghanistan before any conflict resolution talks could be initiated.

The United States was also invited to the Moscow talks, but Washington declined, saying it had not been informed of the agenda beforehand and was unclear about the meeting’s motives.

Undermining NATO

American military officials suspect Russia’s so-called Afghan peace diplomacy is aimed at undermining NATO and have accused Moscow of arming the Taliban.

“I think it is fair to assume they may be providing some sort of support to [the Taliban], in terms of weapons or other things that may be there,” U.S. Central Command Chief General Joseph Votel told members of the House Armed Services Committee in March. He said he thought Russia was “attempting to be an influential party in this part of the world.”

For its part, Moscow has denied that it is supporting the Afghan Taliban.

“These fabrications are designed, as we have repeatedly underlined, to justify the failure of the U.S. military and politicians in the Afghan campaign.There is no other explanation,” said Zamir Kabulov, the Kremlin’s special envoy to Afghanistan.

In a separate statement Thursday, the Taliban also denied receiving military aid from Russia, though the group defended “political understanding” with Afghanistan’s neighbors and regional countries.

Anna Borshchevskaya of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said reports of Moscow supporting the Taliban were not new.

“The official Russian position on the Taliban is that they see it as a group that could help fight ISIS, but this is something that even some Taliban spokesmen have denied, since ISIS and the Taliban reached an understanding about a year ago,” Borshchevskaya said.

Putin’s motive

She said that if the allegations of Russian support for the Taliban were true, Russian President Vladimir Putin was most likely motivated by his desire to undermine the West.

“Certainly one motivation could be taking advantage of regional chaos, and to assert Russia’s influence at the expense of the U.S., taking advantage of a U.S. retreat from the Middle East and elsewhere and [to] undermine NATO and the U.S.” Borshchevskaya said, “This has been Putin’s pattern.”

U.S. President Donald Trump has made few public statements on Afghanistan, and his administration is still weighing whether to deploy more American troops to try to reverse the course of the war.

Thursday’s strike in Nangarhar marked a major step by the Trump administration in Afghanistan, in which there has been a U.S. military presence since 2001.

During a March 31 NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson reaffirmed U.S. support for the alliance’s mission in Afghanistan.

“NATO’s work in Afghanistan remains critical. The United States is committed to the Resolute Support Mission and to our support for Afghan forces,” Tillerson said.

Some 13,000 NATO troops, including 8,400 Americans, are part of the support mission, tasked with training Afghanistan’s 300,000-member national security and defense forces.

Michael Kugelman, South Asia expert at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson Center, said he expected continuity in U.S. policy toward Afghanistan between the Obama and Trump administrations.

“The statement made by Tillerson at a recent NATO meeting could well have been uttered by an Obama official,” Kugelman said. “The focus on training, advising and assisting and the call for reconciliation mirror exactly the Obama administration’s priorities.”

More troops

But the South Asia analyst noted one important policy difference: U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan.

“Obama was an anti-war president who was never comfortable keeping large numbers of troops in Afghanistan. Trump is unlikely to be as constrained,” Kugelman said.

“Look for Trump to send in several thousand more troops,” he said. “This is a request that the generals in Afghanistan have made for years, and Trump is more likely to defer to the U.S. military’s wishes on this than Obama was.”

As for Russian involvement in Afghanistan following the former Soviet Union’s occupation of the South Asian country from 1979 to 1989, Kugelman said that even if Russia were engaging the Taliban to undercut U.S. influence,  the two nations ultimately hope for the same outcome in Afghanistan.

“The ironic thing is that Washington and Moscow both want the same endgame in Afghanistan — an end to the war, preferably through a reconciliation process — but they simply can’t get on the same page about how to proceed,” Kugelman said.
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Authorities in Spain and France have seized millions of dollars’ worth of assets owned by Rifaat al-Assad, the uncle of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Prosecutors allege his property empire, worth over a half-billion dollars, was built using money embezzled from the Syrian state in the 1980s. Now pressure is growing on Britain to freeze his properties in London, as Henry Ridgwell reports.
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The European Court of Human Rights ruled Thursday that Russia failed to adequately minimize risks ahead of a 2004 attack by Islamic militants on a school, and that the actions of security forces contributed to the deaths of hostages.

The three-day siege and massacre that started on September 1, 2004, at School Number One in Beslan, a town in the republic of North Ossetia, left more than 330 hostages dead, including 186 children. It is one of the bloodiest terrorist acts ever in Russia.

A group of Russians filed lawsuits accusing the government of failing to protect the victims against a known threat, mounting a deficient rescue operation, and not effectively investigating the attack and response.

The ECHR sided with the plaintiffs, saying authorities had specific information about a planned attack but did not boost security at the school. The court said afterward investigators did not properly examine how victims died, and “failed to adequately examine the use of lethal force by the authorities.”

Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected the ruling, calling it unacceptable given that Russia had been the victim of terrorist attacks.

The attack began on the first day of the school year. About 30 mostly Chechen and Ingush Islamic militants seized the school and killed several adults before taking more than 1,100 people hostage, including nearly 800 children. During a 52-hour standoff, most of the hostages were held in the school’s gym, where temperatures soared and no food or water was provided.

On the third day, some of the hostages were released and the bodies of some adults killed on the first day were collected. But a sudden series of powerful explosions was followed by a fire that engulfed the gym and caused its roof to collapse. In response, Russian security forces backed by tanks stormed the building and fought a battle against the hostage-takers, leading to the deaths of more than 330 hostages and 186 children. Hundreds of other people were wounded, and others were reported missing.

The group that carried out the attack was allegedly controlled by Chechen separatist leader Shamil Basayev, who was killed in 2006. Basayev worked with jihadist militants such as Ibn al-Khattab, a Saudi national with close connections to al-Qaida.
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Hours of meetings in Moscow Wednesday between U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov seemed only to reinforce existing divisions between the two nations. VOA’s Daniel Schearf reports from Moscow that the sides continued their exchange of harsh words over Syria, and responsibility for the recent nerve gas attack that killed civilians.
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The recent gas attack in Syria has resurrected Russian-Turkish tensions.  Turkey is again calling for the removal of Russian backed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the creation of safe areas and no-fly zones, but renewed tensions between Russia and Turkey could cost Ankara economically.

Ankara’s robust stance against the Syrian regime has brought a swift response from Moscow.  The Russian Union of Travel Industry warned Monday that an embargo on charter flights to Turkish holiday resorts could be reintroduced.

The embargo, which only recently was lifted, was part of tough economic sanctions enforced by Moscow after Turkish jets downed a Russian bomber operating from a Syrian airbase in 2015.  “I don’t think it can afford another crisis with Russia,” warns political columnist Semih Idiz of Al Monitor website, “especially from the economic dimension, just with the advent of tourism season around the corner.  So there has to be a balancing act there, a very delicate one.”

Russian tourists account for the second-largest number of vacationers to Turkey.  Last year’s embargo devastated the country’s lucrative tourism industry, with the number of Russian visitors dropping by nearly three million.  Tourism accounts for 6.2 percent of the Turkish economy, employing eight percent of the labor force.

Until now, Turkish media had been reporting on a surge in Russian tourist bookings and the opening of new air charter routes from Russia, but, hopes of a new tourism boom now appear firmly on hold.

Economy slowed already

The uncertainly could not come at a worse time for the Turkish economy.

“The nation is exhausted by weight of economic slowdown,” warns political consultant Atilla Yesilada of Global Source partners,  “Despite the massive economic stimulus that has been injected into the economy, the consumer side is not recovering.  We’ve seen the latest unemployment figures are at multi-year highs, we see a more important indicator, visit to shopping malls, turnover down by 1.5 percent, visitors down by 5.5 percent.”

Even before the latest outbreak in bilateral tensions, Moscow’s sincerity over rapprochement efforts, was already in question in Turkey, “it was a one side arrangement“ points out Aydin Selcen former senior Turkish diplomat who served widely in the region.  

Despite both presidents talking about progress, Moscow left in place most of the most Draconian economic sanctions against Turkey, “even practical issues like export agricultural products is not solved yet, the issue for visa for Turkish citizens is not solved yet, also the tomato issue is unresolved,” points out Selcen

Rotten tomatoes

Moscow’s ban on Turkish tomatoes is one of most painful and contentious issues for Ankara.  Russia had accounted for more than 70 percent of Turkish exports, worth annually more than $250 million.  A year later Turkish suppliers have struggled to find alternative markets, and the sight of tomatoes rotting on the vines are again starting to be reported in Turkish media.

Ankara last month hit back, introducing its own sanctions against Russian wheat imports.  But in an interview last month Turkish Agriculture Minister Faruk Celik acknowledged the trade war was “unsustainable.”

But strategic interests over Syria could help ease bilateral tensions.  Turkey and Russia, along with Iran, are seen to have a vested interest in cooperating over Syria, despite their differences, “if there is going to be peace in Syria it will require at least for those three countries to be on board, so their proxy actors in Syria to be on board too,” points out Sinan Ulgen, a visiting scholar from Carnegie Europe in Brussels, “So that’s what is creating this feeling — interdependence.”

Turkish Economy Minister Nihat Zeybekci, voicing frustration over the situation, said next week economic delegations will sit down to resolve bilateral trade issues, “No country can win through bans.  On the contrary, all lose.  In an environment devoid of bans, all will win,” said Zeybekci.  Strategic considerations over Syria, however, also could be a factor in preventing a breakdown in relations.

 
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The European Commission is not ready yet to take measures against Hungary, despite the country passing laws to curb academic freedom and trying to decrease the freedom of civil society organizations.  The EU executive arm complete a legal assessment to study if newly introduced laws are compatible with EU rules.

EU Commission Vice President Frans Timmermans said Wednesday the commission decided developments in Hungary need discussion, but do not warrant action.

“There is in the view of the commission today, not a systemic threat to the rule of law in Hungary.  … The college unanimously agreed that a broader political dialogue between the Hungarian authorities, other member states, and the European Parliament and Commission is now warranted.”

Since Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban was elected in 2010, independent media and civil society freedom to operate is shrinking.  He frequently criticizes the European Union and says he is working to transform Hungary into an “illiberal democracy.”

Despite signing the Rome Declaration on the future of the bloc last month, Orban’s administration started a “stop Brussels” campaign that includes a nationwide survey asking citizens how the government should deal with threatening policies.

Academic freedom targeted

A law passed earlier this week targets academic freedom.  It is believed the law is intended to stop operations of the Central European University that is funded by Hungarian-American billionaire George Soros.

Tens of thousands of protesters have demonstrated against the education bill, and are opposing a law targeting non-governmental organizations, which is expected to be approved in May.

Eszter Kiss of the Eotvos Karoly Policy Institute says there have been several times when it seems its employees are under government surveillance.  Kiss feels that the new law would further stigmatize civil society organizations.

“Because of the hate campaign and the aggressive, unpredictable legislation practice of the government very few people in Hungary have the courage to openly donate for CSOs and the law will make the situation only more difficult.  The draft and the plan of this law were introduced with the communication that CSOs should operate transparently.  In fact, they are already obliged by the law to publish their financial reports.”

Hungarian Civil Liberties Union Executive Director Stefania Kapronczay says the proposed law will not shut down organizations immediately, but that it strengthens the negative rhetoric used against civil society.  Kapronczay hopes the European Union will defend democracy in the country and the freedom of expression.

“When Hungary joined this union we signed up for the adherence to those values, so we expect the European Union and the European politicians to hold Hungary accountable to upholding those values.  We believe that is something that holds together the union and these are the European values.”

A few options for pressure

The EU Commission said follow up steps on legal concerns in Hungary will be decided by the end of this month.  The country has been able to enact most of its illiberal reforms.

Agata Gostynska-Jakubowska of the Center for European Reform says the tools the bloc has to address rule of law issues aren’t working properly.

“When a government violates European law and in the process goes against democratic values the commission can open an infringement procedure and bring the case in front of the Court of Justice.  This procedure cannot be applied however when an EU government backtracks on democratic values but does not break any EU law.  If the European Commission does not find any evidence that the EU law has been broken by government’s reforms on higher education there is little it can do.”

A recent report by monitoring group Freedom House claims Hungary has the lowest democracy score in Central Europe and that Poland is also failing.

European Justice Commissioner Vera Jourova said earlier this week the European Union sees “worrying trends” in countries such as Hungary and Poland, which has received several warnings from the bloc on issues related to democracy and rule of law.

Massive demonstrations were staged in both countries, but the governments are still moving forward with their agenda. Jourova said she encourages people to be vocal.

“I myself do not believe that any administrative steps or infringements or other measures taken by the European commission in relation or against some member state will help a lot.  It must be the people in the member states which feels the need to say something on the future development,” said Jourova.

One EU measure could be to trigger Article 7, a punishment whereby a member state loses its voting rights.  But triggering Article 7 needs backing of all member states and is so politically sensitive it’s called the “nuclear option.”

 
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President Donald Trump is hosting NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the White House Wednesday, where the two men are expected to discuss Trump’s commitment to the organization.

After the meeting, Trump and Stoltenberg are scheduled to meet with reporters, where they will likely face more questions about the U.S. commitment to NATO and Trump’s insistence that other NATO countries shoulder more of the burden for defense spending.

Ahead of the meeting, a senior White House official said Trump is “100 percent committed to NATO.”

This comes after Trump, as recently as January, called NATO “obsolete” due to its inability to thwart several terrorist attacks and because “it was designed many, many years ago.”

Still, the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity, the president has “made it very clear, repeatedly, that he is very committed to NATO.”

Along with reaffirming the U.S. commitment to NATO, Trump and Stoltenberg are expected to discuss NATO’s role in fighting global terror and Trump’s repeated assertions that other NATO countries don’t pay their fair share for defense spending.

‘Likely to see eye-to-eye’

The White House official said he doesn’t expect an “awkward conversation” because Trump and Stoltenberg are “likely to see eye-to-eye” on the issue of increased spending among NATO countries.

All NATO countries have agreed to spend two percent of their gross domestic product on their own defense by 2024, but only a few of the member-countries currently meet that goal.

Last month, after a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Trump said Germany “owes vast sums of money to NATO” and said the country needs to pay the U.S. more for the “powerful, and very expensive, defense it provides Germany.”

The U.S. spends about three percent of its GDP on defense, while Germany spends about 1.2 percent.

On Monday, Trump gave his official approval Tuesday for Montenegro to join NATO, marking another step forward in the tiny Balkan country’s quest for NATO membership.

The White House official said the Trump administration is “very concerned about the Russians’ interference in October elections in Montenegro.”

Russia has described Montenegro’s NATO membership as a “provocation” due to the country’s geographical proximity to Russia. The Kremlin has long seen the Balkans as inside its “sphere of influence.”
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Italy’s parliament approved on Tuesday measures to accelerate asylum procedures, cutting the number of possible appeals and speeding up deportations of rejected migrants.

Since 2014 the number of migrants reaching Italy’s shores has surged, with half a million arriving in the country, and under European Union law Italy has to set up so-called “hotspots” where migrants with the right of asylum are set apart from those without.

As a result, Italy’s asylum applications have jumped, burdening the national civil courts and with procedures further delayed by appeals that can take years.

Under the new rules the asylum ruling can be appealed only once, instead of twice, and the request has to be submitted within a month.

The law, named after Interior Minister Marco Minniti and Justice Minister Andrea Orlando, also creates 26 new sections in courts across the country, specialized in immigration.

It enables the Interior ministry to employ up to 250 people in the next two years to work in specialized state-run committees dealing with the asylum request.

Rights group Amnesty International said on Tuesday it was worried for the “significant reduction in the procedural guarantees for the asylum seekers” claiming that the new procedures could be unconstitutional and discriminatory.

“Faster decision are in the interest of those requesting asylum but they must not lead to a limitation of [the migrants’] rights,” the head of Amnesty International in Italy Antonio Marchesi said in a statement.

The new rules had already been adopted by Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni’s government at the beginning of February with an emergency decree on the grounds that the court backlog was stacking up quickly and asylum-seeker shelters were filling up.

Under Italian law, emergency decrees have to be converted into law by parliament within 60 days.

Italy has estimated that it will spend about 3.9 billion euros ($4.1 billion) this year on managing immigration, almost three times as much as in 2013. The annual bill could rise to 4.3 billion euros if arrivals increase, the equivalent to a quarter of the country’s annual spending on defense.

($1 = 0.9428 euros)
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Turks living overseas are turning out in greater numbers to vote in a referendum on changing the constitution to create an executive presidency, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday, a development that pollsters say could benefit him.

Voters in Turkey will go to the polls on April 16 to decide on the referendum that would give Erdogan sweeping new powers.

Voting for expatriate Turks began as early as late March in some countries and is due to run until Sunday.

The referendum campaign has brought a rapid deterioration in relations with some of Turkey’s European allies over the banning of some rallies by Turkish ministers in the Netherlands and Germany on security grounds, something Erdogan has denounced as “Nazi-like” tactics.

A high turnout abroad is likely to boost Erdogan, pollsters say, citing past elections, but at home it could hurt him as opposition voters traditionally make up a bigger proportion of those who tend to shun the polls on an election day.

“There is an amazing explosion of votes abroad. Around 1.42 million votes have been cast,” Erdogan said at a ceremony in the southeastern city of Sanliurfa, calling on his supporters to flood the ballot box with “yes” votes in the referendum.

The figure Erdogan cited suggests a turnout of around 50 percent, based on the 2.88 million voters registered abroad in the last general election in November 2015, according to data from the High Electoral Board (YSK).

In that election the turnout was around 40 percent among expatriates, with 56 percent of those votes being cast for the AK Party, which Erdogan founded more than a decade ago.

Polls show a close race days before the referendum, putting the “yes” vote slightly ahead, but indicate that nearly half the country could reject the proposed constitutional changes.

Foreign vote results will be announced once the actual referendum is held on Sunday.

Bitterly Divided

One polling company, Mak Danismanlik, seen as close to Erdogan, said initial exit polls from abroad showed the “yes” vote at 62 percent. It said the only country where the “no” vote had prevailed was the United States. It did not say how many people it had polled or where the research was conducted.

Pollsters Gezici, whose research has tended to overestimate opposition support, forecast 82-83 percent voter participation domestically and a “yes” vote as high as 56 percent if the turnout is lower in Turkey.

The referendum has polarized the nation of 79 million.

Erdogan’s opponents fear increasing authoritarianism from a leader they see as bent on eroding modern Turkey’s democracy and secular foundations.

Erdogan argues that the proposed strengthening of the presidency will avert instability associated with coalition governments, at a time when Turkey faces security threats from Islamist and Kurdish militants.

It was not immediately clear what the turnout in specific countries was, but in the November 2015 election, around 40 percent of the Turks in Germany cast their votes while the figure was around 45 percent in the Netherlands.

Germany’s Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper said Turks living there had cast 696,863 votes for the referendum, bringing turnout in Germany to 48.73 percent.
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President Donald Trump gave his official approval Tuesday for Montenegro to join NATO, marking another step forward in the tiny Baltic country’s quest for NATO acceptance.

The White House says Trump looks forward to meeting with Montenegro and other NATO leaders next month in Brussels to welcome the 29th member of the alliance.

The White House statement said Montenegro’s accession will signal other countries seeking to join NATO that “the door to membership in the Euro-Atlantic community of nations remains open and that countries in the Western Balkans are free to choose their own future.”

The U.S. Senate voted overwhelmingly last month to support Montenegro’s NATO bid.

Trump is scheduled to meet Wednesday with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg at the White House.

As recently as January, Trump called NATO “obsolete” because it had not defended against terrorist attacks. He also complained other NATO countries are not paying their fair share for defense.

“A lot of these countries are not paying what they are supposed to be paying, which I think is very unfair to the United States,” Trump told The Times of London.  “With that being said, NATO is very important to me.  There are five countries that are paying what they are supposed to. Five. It is not much.”

Russia has described Montenegro’s NATO membership as a “provocation” due to the country’s geographical proximity to Russia. The Kremlin has long seen the Balkans as inside its “sphere of influence.”
…

God comes first in this mountaintop village on Turkey’s Black Sea, the saying goes. Then, according to adoring villagers, comes local boy Recep Tayyip Erdogan, today one of the most transformational, polarizing figures in modern Turkish history.

Nestled among tea plantations, the village of Dumankaya in the rugged province of Rize oozes the fervent loyalty that has propelled Erdogan, 63, to one electoral triumph after another since he took power as prime minister in 2003.

Now the Turkish president is hoping that pious Muslim bedrocks of support like Dumankaya will help deliver him another win, this time in Turkey’s April 16 referendum. The vote could extend Erdogan’s rule for many years and, in his opponents’ view, further erode Turkey’s challenged democracy.

For many Turks, Sunday’s vote on whether to expand the powers of the Turkish presidency is not a dry constitutional matter. For people on both sides of the political divide, it’s all about the outsized ambitions of one man, Erdogan.

Fisherman Birol Bahtiyar, wearing a cap emblazoned with a “Yes” slogan, dismissed suggestions by opponents that the referendum was a power-grab by Erdogan or that he was leading Turkey into a one-man regime.

“In the past 14 years, Turkey stepped into a new age,” said the 49-year-old as he and his friends fixed their nets at Rize’s harbor. “I will vote yes because I trust him. There is no such thing as a one-man rule. We still have an assembly, a parliament. We have confidence [in the proposed system].”

The constitutional amendments would shift Turkey’s system from a parliamentary to a presidential system, in one of the most radical political changes since the Turkish republic was established in 1923. Opponents fear that the changes will give the president near-absolute powers with little oversight, turning the NATO country that once vied for European Union membership into an authoritarian state.

For ‘the people’

But for the socially conservative and pious residents of Rize, such arguments ring hollow. To them, the region’s most famous son is a reformist leader who has brought unprecedented economic growth and prosperity to Turkey and provided improved health care, education and large infrastructure projects.

In Erdogan — whose parents and siblings were born in Dumankaya (Smoky Rock in English for the fog that frequently hangs over it) — they see a local who has given a greater voice to the pious — who felt marginalized under previous governments, which enforced secular laws barring Islamic headscarves in schools and public offices.

They believe Erdogan — who has ruled Turkey for over a decade, first as prime minister and as president since 2014 — is a strong leader who has provided political stability, ending the political squabbles that plagued Turkey in the 1990s.

Voters in Rize have backed Erdogan by a wide margin in a long string of election victories and promise to do so again on April 16. They support his ambition to turn Turkey into one of the world’s top powers by 2023, when the country marks its centenary.

Mehmet Celik, a Dumankaya resident, sees the president as a larger-than-life trail-blazer and fighter against Turkey’s perceived enemies.

“For us, God comes first. Then comes Recep Tayyip Erdogan,” said Celik. “He supports the people and the people support him.”

Two sides to coup

Celik believes Erdogan rescued Turkey from last summer’s failed coup and feels that a strong presidency would protect Turkey from greater calamity. Turkey has blamed the coup on the followers of the U.S.-based Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen, a charge Gulen has denied.

“They [the Gulenists] would have ruined us. If we had fallen into their hands, we would have been destroyed. Why would we not vote ‘Yes?”‘ Celik said. “If our president did not exist, we would have been in a miserable state.”

But critics say Erdogan has used the coup attempt to purge his critics. More than 150,000 people have been taken into custody, fired or forced to retire from Turkey’s armed forces, judiciary, education system and other public institutions since the coup attempt.

Ismail Erdogan, a cousin of Erdogan and the chief administrator of Dumankaya, points at a long list of projects either launched or completed under Erdogan’s rule, including a major coastal highway, the Recep Tayyip Erdogan University, a hospital.

“He brought infrastructure, natural gas. He is bringing an airport. We had never seen such things. He brought a giant hospital,” Ismail Erdogan said, describing his cousin as a serious child who liked to talk about soccer and commanded respect even at an early age.

Speaking in a recently renovated local government building in Dumankaya, Ismail Erdogan also praised his cousin for standing up to Europe, following a dispute last month over restrictions imposed by the Netherlands and Germany on Turkish ministers holding referendum campaigns there.

“Let’s not [join] the European Union, we don’t need it,” Ismail Erdogan said. “We are self-sufficient.”

Erdogan campaigned in Rize recently to court the votes of his fellow townsmen, symbolically launching the start of construction for an airport that will serve Rize and the neighboring province of Artvin. In a speech laced with nationalist and anti-European rhetoric, Erdogan also promised that the construction of mountain tunnel pass would soon be finished.

Among the crowd of adoring supporters — waving flags and banners emblazoned with the word “Yes” — was 22-year-old religious studies student Leyla Erdeniz. Her affection for Erdogan runs so deep that she moved to Rize to study at the university named after him.

“A ‘Yes’ result will be very beneficial to our country,” the university student said. “There will be no trace left of the old Turkey.”
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The Trump administration must decide by the end of this month whether to grant Belarus continued relief from U.S. economic sanctions despite a stiff government crackdown on street demonstrations last month.

The renewal decision is considered a low-level priority for the administration, which is facing bigger questions about U.S. relations with Russia and China, and with most major diplomatic positions still unfilled.

But whether the United States renews the sanctions relief or instead returns to blacklisting nine major Belarus companies is an early test for the Trump administration on the importance it puts on human rights versus efforts to coax countries in Russia’s orbit to turn to the West.

The sanctions waivers, which began in 2015 and were extended twice last year, were tied to domestic political reforms and intended to encourage Belarus, which has long historical ties to Russia, to move closer to the European Union and the United States.

Now, however, U.S. officials are alarmed by the arrests of hundreds of people last month during an attempt to hold a street protest in the capital Minsk, and concerned if continuing sanctions relief could be seen as ignoring the crackdown.

Belarus authorities last month raided a human rights group’s offices and used violence against peaceful protesters, rights groups say.

“This most recent crackdown sharpened people’s focus,” said a U.S. congressional aide, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “Now there is a real question about whether or not they [the sanctions] should be reimposed.”

April deadline

The decision must be taken by the end of April. If the administration makes no decision, the sanctions will be reimposed.

NATO members, including Poland and the Baltic states, feel threatened by what they see as increased Russian intervention in Europe, including Moscow’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region in 2014.

“Belarus is so important from a strategic point of view and it’s so dependent economically on Russia that we are really very concerned,” said Piotr Wilczek, the Polish ambassador to the United States. “Belarus is becoming more and more part of this wider Russian problem we have.”

The Trump administration is inclined to renew the sanctions relief, but likely would wait until the last minute “to make sure they don’t do anything awful,” said a U.S. official, also speaking on condition of anonymity.

State and Treasury Department officials declined to comment in detail on the Belarus sanctions. The Belarus Ministry of Foreign Affairs declined to comment.

President George W. Bush in 2006 blacklisted top Belarus officials, including President Alexander Lukashenko, for undermining the country’s democratic processes or human rights abuses. The United States later added large Belarus companies to the sanctions list.

But in 2015, Lukashenko released political prisoners and indicated he was open to better relations with the West. That October, President Barack Obama temporarily lifted sanctions on nine Belarus companies, including petrochemical conglomerate Belneftekhim and tire manufacturer Belshina.

Now, however, Lukashenko appears to be keeping his country firmly in Moscow’s orbit. In a letter to him last week, four U.S. senators said they were concerned over the crackdown and that he decided to allow Russia to conduct “provocative” military exercises in Belarus later this year.
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