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International calls for restraint grew Wednesday for Syria and its allies, Russia and Iran, to avoid a bloodbath and humanitarian disaster in Syria’s Idlib province.

The northwestern province along the Turkish border is the last major part of Syria in rebel hands. Syrian forces are surrounding the province, and observers say a multiparty operation may be imminent.

Meeting Wednesday with the emir of Kuwait, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah, President Donald Trump called the situation in Idlib “very sad.”

“That cannot be a slaughter. If it’s a slaughter, the world is going to get very, very angry and the United States is going to get angry, too,” Trump added.

When a reporter asked Trump if he was not going to let an attack on Idlib happen, the president said only that he was watching very closely.

The 10 nonpermanent members of the U.N. Security Council issued a joint statement Wednesday urging all parties in Syria to show restraint. They said a military strike on Idlib would lead to a “humanitarian catastrophe.”

The entire council is scheduled to meet Friday to discuss the crisis, while at the same time, the presidents of Turkey, Russia and Iran are planning to hold a summit in Tehran.

Russia and Iran are Syria’s top allies, and Turkey fears another refugee crisis along its border if Syrian forces attack Idlib.

The three nations last year declared Idlib to be a “de-escalation zone,” and Turkey says the cease-fire inside Idlib must not be violated. Moscow, however, has called Idlib a “nest of terrorists,” the word it uses to refer to the rebels.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Russian airstrikes on Idlib killed at least nine civilians Tuesday. 

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu met with his German counterpart, Heiko Maas, in Ankara Wednesday, in part to send a message to Moscow that such attacks are unacceptable.

Cavusoglu says Russian and Turkish officials have been holding talks on preventing a military strike on Idlib.

“We don’t find it correct that the [Russian raids] happened before the Tehran summit,” he said. “If the problem here is the radical groups, a common strategy needs to be adopted. Joint work can be done to eliminate these groups, but the solution is definitely not to bomb Idlib in its entirety.”

Maas said Germany was also concerned about massive bloodshed and “looming humanitarian catastrophe” inside Idlib.

About 3 million people are in the province. Many of them are rebels and their families who went there after being given a chance to evacuate from other areas formerly held by rebels before Syrian forces moved in.

The Syrian military has been urging the rebels in Idlib to surrender.
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German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas is making a two-day visit to Turkey in the latest step in warming relations between the two countries.

Last year, bilateral relations plummeted to the point that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused German Chancellor Angela Merkel of using “Nazi methods.”

But before leaving for Ankara, Maas  said “we are determined to keep working hard to improve our relations. Turkey is more than a large neighbor, it is an important partner of Germany.”

Maas will meet Erdogan and top Turkish ministers.

The visit is to prepare for Erdogan’s state visit to Berlin later this month, a rare privilege in Europe, analysts say, given Turkey’s poor human rights record.

Looking for help

“There indeed seems to be a warming of relations between Turkey and Germany,” said political analyst Sinan Ulgen of the Istanbul-based Edam research group. “Turkey’s relationship with its other big partner in the West, the United States, is under tension. So,there is a real willingness in Ankara to improve the relations with key European countries, primarily Germany.”

Last month’s imposition of U.S. tariffs on Turkish goods triggered a collapse in Turkey’s currency, threatening a financial crisis. The Turkish and German finance ministers are to meet in Berlin later this month to reportedly discuss financial support for Turkey.

Until recently, Erdogan had threatened to look east toward Moscow, in response to souring ties with Washington and Europe. But analysts point out that Turkish financial woes and the deepening crisis in Syria, underscore the limits of Ankara’s relationship with Moscow.

“There was always a consciousness in Ankara that Russia could never really be a strategic partner to Turkey,” Ulgen said. “Namely, there continue to be fundamental differences on how the two countries look at developments in the region, be it Syria, Ukraine, Crimea.”

“Secondly,” he added, “Russia is not an economic partner in the sense that the IMF [International Monetary Fund] or EU could ever be,” he added, “so expectations in terms that Russia could be helpful in an economic downturn scenario in Turkey were always very superficial.”

Human rights

Turkey’s human rights record is seen as a significant stumbling block to any improvement in relations with the EU.

Maas said he would call on Turkish authorities for the release of seven German citizens, which Berlin claims are being held for political reasons.German politicians are accusing Ankara of pursing hostage diplomacy.

Ankara insists the Turkish judiciary is independent. But in the past few months, Turkish courts have released German journalists Deniz Yucel and Mesale Tolu.

Analysts warn if Ankara is seeking significant improvement in its ties with Berlin and the wider European Union, it will have to take substantial steps toward complying with EU standards on human rights defined by the Copenhagen Criteria.

“The EU demand of meeting the Copenhagen Criteria requires having some kind of democratic regime — some kind of independent judiciary, some role for checks and balances,” said political analyst Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners. “You cannot put people in jail for their postings on social media or arrest journalists for writing something Erdogan doesn’t like. These practices need to stop.”

“Ankara is looking for a relationship that is devoid of political conditionality. From the European perspective, that will not be possible,” Ulgen said.

Analysts claim the decline in human rights in Turkey means Ankara’s EU membership hopes are all but finished.

“This vocation of becoming a full EU member is over,” said former senior Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen. “Now, even to renew the customs union is not going to happen this year or next.”

“But yet separately,” he added, “those countries in the European Union are the biggest trade partners of Turkey, and it will remain so,” he added. “Especially Turkey and Germany enjoy a special relationship with many problems, but no country can replace Germany for Turkish industry, and Turkey needs more industrial production to get out of this dire straits in Turkey.”

Analysts say an EU agreement with Turkey to control migrants entering European countries remains a compelling reason for Berlin and the rest of the bloc to improve relations and maintain Turkey’s economic stability.

“Given that both parties now realize that Turkey’s accession is unfeasible, at least for the foreseeable future, a new relationship will have to be defined,” Ulgen said. “A new balance has to be struck overall.”
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Britain risks huge disruptions to its economy and society, including trade, transport, health care and citizens’ rights, if it leaves the European Union next March without a deal. That’s the conclusion of a new report on the short-term risks of a so-called ‘no-deal Brexit.’ The report comes as lawmakers return to London after a six-week summer break to face growing uncertainty over Britain’s future relations with the EU. Henry Ridgwell reports from London.
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British public opinion on leaving the European Union is still deeply split, according to a survey on Wednesday, indicating only a slight increase in support for remaining a member despite growing pessimism about the outcome of negotiations.

Britain is due to leave the EU on March 29, 2019 but has yet to secure an exit agreement to define future relations with Brussels and manage the economic impact of ending over four decades of integration with the world’s largest trading bloc.

Polling showed 59 percent of voters would now vote to remain in the bloc, versus 41 percent who would vote to leave. The findings were published in an academic-led report on Wednesday by research bodies NatCen and The UK in a Changing Europe.

That is the highest recorded support for ‘remain’ in a series of five such surveys since the 2016 referendum and a large reversal of the actual 52-48 percent vote to leave.

But the author of the report, polling expert John Curtice, added a note of caution, saying that their panel of interviewees reported they had voted 53 percent in favor of remain in the original vote – a higher proportion than the actual vote.

“Nevertheless, this still means that there has apparently been a six-point swing from Leave to Remain, larger than that registered by any of our previous rounds of interviewing, and a figure that would seemingly point to a 54 percent (Remain) vote in any second referendum held now,” Curtice said in the report.

The government has ruled out holding a second referendum.

The survey interviewed 2,048 subjects between June 7 and July 8. That means the survey does not fully reflect any change in opinion brought about by the publication of Prime Minister Theresa May’s negotiating strategy, published in early July.

That negotiating strategy has split May’s party at every level and drawn heavy criticism from both Brexit supporters and those who want to retain close ties to the EU.

Nevertheless, the poll shows voters thought the negotiations were going badly even before the publication of May’s so-called Chequers plan.

“Both Remain and Leave supporters have become markedly more critical of how both the U.K. government – especially – and the EU – somewhat less so – have been handling the negotiations,” Curtice said. “They have also become markedly more pessimistic about how good a deal Britain will get.”

Curtice said the results of the polling showed that the most influential factor over whether voters will support the conclusion of the negotiations is their perception of its economic effect rather than the details of any deal.
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French President Emmanuel Macron planned to focus this month on promoting his policies to reshape the economy. Instead, he’s encountered obstacles.

The resignations of two popular Cabinet ministers, snags in a pending income tax system, and anger over cuts in family and housing benefits greeted Macron as France returned from summer holidays.

Last week, the 40-year-old leader branded the French as “Gauls resistant to change.” He made the remark while reaffirming his intent to push for loosening France’s rigid labor rules despite such resistance.

Missing ministers

Environment Minister Nicolas Hulot’s resignation last week was an unexpected blow. Hulot, the well-known host of a television nature show, personified Macron’s agenda for greener policies.

Hulot’s decision to quit raised questions about the president’s commitment to “Make our planet great again” — a verbal jab at U.S. President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris climate accord.

An experienced politician and environmentalist, Francois de Rugy, was named as the new environment minister Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Sport Minister Laura Flessel, who holds two Olympic gold medals in fencing, tendered her resignation Tuesday for “personal reasons.” She was replaced by swimmer Roxana Maracineanu, world champion in backstroke at the 1998 World Aquatics Championships.

Taxing times

A major change in French life is set to take place in January with the introduction of a new schedule and system for paying income taxes.

Macron suggested last week that potential technical bugs could be an issue. His comments made the government look unprepared to the public.

Yet Prime Minister Edouard Philippe confirmed on Tuesday night that the measure, launched under Macron’s predecessor Francois Hollande, will be implemented as planned.

The measure would require workers to have taxes automatically and immediately deducted from their salaries each month. French workers currently pay taxes on what they earned the year before with one or several payments.

The switch has raised concerns about taxpayer privacy since employers and not tax authorities would be responsible for overseeing the automated deductions.

The government also fears a negative psychological impact on French workers who would see lower monthly earnings on their pay slips even though their annual tax liability would be the same.

Growing pains

The French government recently lowered its economic growth forecast for next year to 1.7 percent — down from the previous estimate of 1.9 percent — and unveiled plans to cut public spending.

Pensions and family and housing benefits would no longer be pegged to inflation. That means they would increase at a more moderate pace and the purchasing power of retirees and families would decrease.

Philippe, the prime minister, said the government would not cut benefits for France’s poorest residents.

Macron has pledged to pursue labor changes in the coming months, with a focus on small businesses, to boost growth.

Sliding popularity

Two recent opinion polls by French institutes Ifop and BVA showed Macron’s popularity rating at 31 and 34 percent respectively — the lowest since his election in May 2017.

Meanwhile, labor unions are considering more strikes to protest policies of Macron’s they see as weakening hard-won workers protections.

Worker unions CGT and FO and student unions Unef and UNL have called for an “action day” on Oct. 9.

Macron’s government struggled in the past year to pass labor reforms and a revamping of national railway company SNCF. The initiatives prompted large protests and months-long rolling strikes from railway workers.
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Laboratory tests by the chemical weapons watchdog confirmed British conclusions that two people in Amesbury, southwest England, were exposed to a Novichok-type nerve agent, it said Tuesday.

The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) said analysis by designated laboratories of samples collected by its team “confirm the findings of the United Kingdom relating to the identity of the toxic chemical.”

Dawn Sturgess, 44, died after she and her partner were exposed to the toxin near the city of Salisbury where Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia were struck down with the same poison in March.

The OPCW said “it is also the same toxic chemical that was found in the biomedical and environmental samples relating to the poisoning of Sergei Skripal.”

The U.K. has accused Russia, which developed the toxic agent in the Soviet Union era, of poisoning the Skripals. Moscow denies all involvement.

Britain is ready to ask Russia to extradite two men it suspects of carrying out the nerve agent attack on Skripal.
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Russia on Tuesday joined Iran in expressing support for Syria’s impending operation to retake control of rebel-held Idlib province, the last major opposition stronghold in the country.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Idlib is a pocket of terrorism, and that the situation there is undermining efforts to find a political resolution to the Syrian conflict.

That follows statements Monday by Iran’s Foreign Ministry saying Idlib should be cleared of “terrorists.” Iranian media also quoted Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif saying during a visit to Syria that Idlib should be put back under the control of the Syrian people, and that reconstruction efforts in Syria and the return of refugees should go forward.

There are about 3 million people in Idlib and the United Nations has said it is worried about the potential humanitarian toll that may come with a Syrian military campaign there.

Trump’s warning

U.S. President Donald Trump warned Syria in a tweet Monday evening not to “recklessly attack” attack Idlib. He also called on two major backers of President Bashar al-Assad’s military to also restrain their actions.

“The Russians and Iranians would be making a grave humanitarian mistake to take part in this potential human tragedy. Hundreds of thousands of people could be killed. Don’t let that happen!” Trump said.

David Lesch, a history professor at Trinity University in San Antonio, told VOA that while the Trump administration is “ratcheting up the pressure a little bit” beyond its previous admonitions to not use chemical weapons, but that U.S. influence on what happens in Idlb is limited.

“Frankly speaking, I don’t think there’s anything the United States can do about it. I think Russia and the Syrian government and their allies are dead-set on taking over Idlib, either in a phased way or in an all-out massive invasion,” Lesch said.

Syria has been at war since early 2011 with a multitude of parties including pro-government forces, rebel groups and militants all fighting for control over various areas.

Assad’s forces, backed by military support from Russia and Iran, have recaptured major cities in recent years, often involving agreements with both opposition fighters and civilians that allowed them to flee to Idlib.

Assad’s government has long referred to any opposition fighters as “terrorists.” The Idlib area includes both rebel groups and militants such as the Nusrah Front.

The presidents of Iran, Russia and Turkey are set to hold a meeting in Tehran on Friday to discuss the situation in Idlib.

Victor Beattie contributed to this report.
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French President Emmanuel Macron hopes to draw a line under a raft of troubles plaguing his 16-month-old presidency and to re-energize his economic reform drive with a Cabinet reshuffle Tuesday

Macron was forced into the move by the surprise exit of his former ecology minister, Nicolas Hulot, who said he despaired at what he felt were hollow commitments on environmental policy.

Resigning live on air last week, Hulot’s resignation was a setback for the 40-year-old French leader, who returned from the summer break reeling from a bodyguard scandal and preparing to embark on a new wave of economic reforms.

Cabinet redone quickly

Benjamin Griveaux, government spokesman, said the Cabinet would be complete in time for Wednesday morning’s weekly Cabinet meeting but was tight-lipped on the scope.

Hours before the expected announcement, Sports Minister Laura Flessel said she was resigning from the government for personal reasons.

“I will continue to be a faithful teammate of the president and prime minister, whose determination I admire and whose values and patriotism I share,” said Flessel, a former Olympic fencing champion and one of Macron’s most popular ministers.

For much of Macron’s first year in power, the former investment banker appeared untouchable, self-assured and unfazed by his falling popularity as he pushed through investor-friendly reforms with a business-like efficiency.

Recently, however, Macron has looked more vulnerable.

Economic growth is slower than forecast, undermining his deficit-busting credentials. Usually decisive, he is wavering on an impending tax collection reform. Meanwhile, voters are growing impatient with his monarchical style and sharp tongue.

“It wasn’t supposed to happen to this president. He promised to be audacious in his reforms, efficient in the exercise of power, and the embodiment of dignity. In his first few months the promise was kept, but now everything is going wrong,” the right-leaning Le Figaro said in an editorial on Monday.

‘Year zero’

Macron has sold his pro-business reform drive on promises that it will boost growth and jobs, but voters spanning typically conservative pensioners to low-income workers complain the president’s policies favor big business and the wealthy.

Next up for his centrist government is tackling social spending, a delicate political balancing act as he seeks to restore credibility with left-leaning voters, just as weaker-than-forecast growth puts pressure on the budget deficit and his popularity plumbs new lows.

Macron’s election victory, which blew apart France’s mainstream parties and halted the march of the far-right National Front party, delighted French business and urban, liberal voters.

But prone to haughty and at times condescending remarks, he has struggled to connect with common folk.

Popularity flags

An IFOP-Fiducial opinion poll Tuesday showed just 31 percent of respondents were happy with his performance as support eroded across all ages on both the political left and right.

That is lower than his predecessor Francois Hollande at the same stage in the socialist’s presidency. Hollande went on to become so unpopular he was the first president in France’s Fifth Republic not to run for re-election.

“It’s something of a ‘year zero’ for Emmanuel Macron. The slate is being wiped clean, even his popularity is starting at zero again. Everything has to be rebuilt,” said Philippe Moreau Chevrolet of the Sciences Po political school in Paris.

In a rare moment of humility, Macron on Monday acknowledged the challenges of his job to a class of young school students: “There are some days which are easy, and others which are not.”
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Turkey saw the inflation rate rise to nearly 18 percent in August, a 15-year high fueled by a collapse in the Turkish lira, which fell more than 20 percent over the past few weeks.

The rising inflation and a falling currency are stoking fears Turkey is on the verge of financial and economic crisis.

“It’s the beginning of the slippery slope. It’s going to get worse unless there is a miraculous improvement in the exchange rate,” political analyst Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners said. “We’ve reached the stage where there is nothing to anchor price expectations. People simply can’t gauge what prices or wages or costs will be next month.”

“It’s a very dismal set of numbers. The likelihood is headline inflation will reach 20 percent in (the) coming months,” economist Inan Demir of Nomura Securities said. “This is clearly a set of numbers that warrant a monetary response from inflation targeting the central bank.”

The Turkish Central Bank, in a statement on its website, vowed to act, promising to use all tools at its disposal and reshape its monetary policy stance at a Sept. 13 meeting where they will discuss interest rates.

The lira recouped much of its initial heavy losses following the release of the latest inflation figures.

“This (the central bank statement) is seen as a signal for a rate hike in that meeting,” Demir said. “Even though the wording of the statement is very uncertain, the expectation of tightening are curbing lira weakness after bad inflation numbers.”

International criticism

International investors sharply criticized the central bank for failing to aggressively raise interest rates to rein in inflation and defend the currency. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s influence is widely seen as responsible for the failure of the bank to act. Erdogan has repeatedly voiced opposition to raising interest rates.

“There will be a massive sell-off to the point of panic if they don’t raise rates,” Yesilada said. “This time, they have no option, even if they meant something else (in their statement), as everyone interpreted it as rates will be hiked. But there are two questions: by how much, and will it help at all?” he added.

Investors and analyst claim the central bank needs to raise rates by at least 4 percent, while some suggest a 10 percent raise is needed to avoid further drops in the currency, which analysts warned would open the lira to further pressure.

“In such a scenario, Turkish residents would want to hold more FX (foreign exchange) rather than Turkish lira … to protect their savings. That is a big risk to the currency,” Demir said.

Already, 40 percent of individual accounts in banks are in foreign currency.

However, an aggressive increase in rates may not be enough to rein in inflation or defend the lira, analysts warned.

“The concerns are on multiple fronts,” Demir said. 

“What Turkish policy needs to do is straightforward,” he added. “They need to hike rates, tighten fiscal policy (cut government spending) and ease tensions with the United States, removing the threat of further sanctions by releasing (American) pastor (Andrew) Brunson.

“There is a way out of this, but it’s not obvious that the policymakers will take that way,” Demir said.

US trade tariffs 

Last month’s imposition of trade tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump over the ongoing detention of Brunson was the trigger for the latest rout in the Turkish currency. Brunson is on trial on terrorism charges, a case dismissed by Washington as politically motivated.

Ignoring U.S. pressure, Turkey’s top appeals court judge, Rustu Cirit, on Monday supported Erdogan’s refusal to release Brunson, saying the pastor’s release is a matter only for the courts.

“To use brute force to reverse this fact, which is a basic principle of contemporary democracies and law of nations, would mean weakening human rights, rather than strengthening them,” Cirit said.

Trump is warning of further sanctions against Turkey if Brunson is not released. American regulatory authorities are considering reportedly a multibillion-dollar fine against Turkish state-controlled Halkbank for violations of Iranian sanctions.

Analysts warn the financial implications of an escalation of U.S.-Turkish tensions will continue to undermine confidence in the lira. However, Erdogan continues to take a robust stance against Washington, insisting the Turkish economy remains strong.

“The list of concerns is long, definitely, but the chief concern I have right now is the policymakers. They need to accept first that there is a significant problem that needs to be addressed,” Demir said. “But we heard this morning from finance minister (Berat) Albayrak that short-term fluctuations in inflation are normal. ”

Turkey already seems set to face a severe recession. Similar depreciations of the currency in past decades was accompanied by a double-digit contraction of the economy. 

Analysts warn the stress on the economy will only grow.

“Each day, Ankara lingers or prevaricates the likelihood of a disaster event increases. Right now, the threat is very low, it’s manageable. But as winter approaches, the likelihood increases exponentially,” Yesilada said.
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