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With no outright winner and the Italian parliament appearing to be hung based on early seat projections Monday, the already fractious country will be thrown into weeks of tortuous backroom deal-making and behind-the-scenes horse trading as coalition negotiations drag on, prolonging political instability in one of Europe’s biggest economies.

On the face of it, Italy underwent a political revolution with voters ditching the center and riding a populist wave. Nearly half of all Italians who voted Sunday supported populist candidates, many of them once considered extremists or catalogued as fringe. The biggest beneficiaries appear to have been the upstart Movimento 5 Stelle (M5S), a maverick, anti-establishment party, that seeks to upend the Italian political system, and the xenophobic Lega party, which wants migrants expelled. 

On early projections — and completing the full seat distribution could take days — M5S will emerge as the largest single party with about 32 percent of the vote but the right-wing alliance of Silvio Berlusconi, which includes the Lega, looks like it captured a 36 percent share of the vote, which will give it the largest number of seats in the lower house, from 248 to 268, short of the 316 needed to govern.

Voters clearly rejected claims by the center-left Democratic Party (PD) that things had improved under its government and the party suffered historic setbacks in its strongholds of the north and center of the country. “Voters have spoken very clearly and irrefutably. The populists have won and the Democratic Party has lost,” admitted PD lawmaker Andrea Marcucci on his Facebook page.

Italian daily newspaper Il Fatto Quotidiano announced Monday: “Everything will change.” 

But political insiders say that isn’t necessarily so. “If M5S and the Lega formed a government, which theoretically may be possible, then we would be facing a political revolution,” said an adviser to Italy’s President Sergio Mattarella. “But I think that isn’t likely, despite the alarm in Brussels. Many in M5S just won’t sit at the same table as the Lega..” 

The voters may have spoken but it isn’t clear that Italy’s political system won’t just adapt — it may just absorb the upheaval, much as it did in the 1990s when a sprawling judicial Clean Hands investigation collapsed the then dominant Christian Democrat and Socialist parties, only for Italy’s political patronage system to reassert itself and for many of the same political faces to reappear.

President Mattarella will start the formal process to form a government after March 23 and he has wide scope on how he does it and who he approaches. “The president is under no obligation to hand a mandate to the biggest party, and may first seek to establish whether parties can get together a coalition with enough seats to govern,” noted Wolfango Piccoli of the risk analysis firm Teneo Intelligence on the eve of the polls.

And at the end of it, Italy may be left with the same prime minister as before the polls, the PD’s Paolo Gentiloni.Analysts and ‘establishment’ politicians say coalition politics and parliamentary gridlock will restrict populist politicians delivering on their carefree campaign promises of tax cuts and benefit increases and mass migrant expulsions.

Gentiloni will continue on as caretaker prime minister while Mattarella oversees negotiations. And he is being tipped as the most likely to be picked by Mattarella, to head subsequently a ‘grand coalition,’ if the parties can’t sort out a deal among themselves.The 63-year-old Gentiloni is widely seen as one of the few politicians with the diplomatic finesse to oversee a so-called ‘government of the president’ to stabilize Italian politics. 

“Don’t you you know your Lampedusa?” said the Mattarella adviser, referring to Giuseppe Tomasi de Lampedusa, one of Italy’s well-known 20th century writers. “He wrote, ‘If we want things to stay as they are, things will have to change.’”

The political Rubik’s Cube Mattarella now has in his hands would try the patience of a puzzle-master. 

Various coalition combinations are possible — in theory — but they involve pushing together odd bedfellows and the M5S and the Lega are likely to prove the most awkward in their demands. Coalition negotiations risk triggering party schisms and breakaways, making the puzzle-solving for Mattarella even more challenging. Along with that, personal animosities, even among formal allies, and unchecked ambitions will complicate coalition building. 

The wily, 81-year-old Berlusconi may well seek to woo defectors from others parties to see if his alliance can form a government without having to rely on it being underpinned by Mattarella. And Lega leader Matteo Salvini has already expressed his suspicion that the former three time prime minister, who had to resign in disgrace amid sex and Mafia scandals, could betray him and seek to form a government with the PD. 

Gentiloni, who was thrust into the prime minister’s job in December 2016 after his predecessor Renzi suffered a humiliating defeat in a plebiscite over constitutional reforms, has the trust of other European leaders and in recent weeks Italy’s elder statesmen, including Giorgio Napolitano, a popular former president, have been heaping praise on him, as if preparing for the eventuality of his returning to steady Italy.

Napolitano describes Gentiloni as “essential for governability.”

“Domani, dopo colazione, nulla sarà cambiato” (Tomorrow, after breakfast, nothing will have changed), said Roberto, a waiter from Rome, clapping his hands for emphasis Monday as the early projections of seat distribution were released. 

As they headed to the polls Sunday, many voters in the towns and villages north of Rome said they expected little would change after the election, even though they expected a populist surge. 

A survey published last week by the Pew Research Center, a U.S. think tank, found that more than three quarters of Italians suspect politicians do not care what ordinary people think. 

For Italy’s neighbors, weeks of party wrangling and political gridlock poses both risks and benefits. Gridlock will restrict much of what parties promised on the campaign they would do, which will come as relief to Italy’s European neighbors and to many Italians.

Nonetheless, Italy’s main stock exchange crashed Monday as the markets absorbed the still incomplete election results. Traders said they were unnerved by the voters’s spurning of traditional parties and their flocking to populist and far-right parties.

That, they say, will give the European Union another political challenge to absorb, and they worry that at the heart of a new government, euro-skeptics will rule the roost, challenge EU budget restrictions and undermine French President Emmanuel Macron’s push for greater European integration. Political observers also fear that any coalition government will be friendlier to Russian President Vladimir Putin, threatening European unity when it comes to Ukraine-related sanctions on Russia.

For migrants from Africa — or those planning on trying to reach Europe via Italy — Sunday’s election won’t be good news. Any government likely to emerge will be riddled with politicians and factions pressing for tougher action against asylum-seekers already in Italy and for every effort to be made to stop migrants from reaching the shores of Italy. That will likely include continuing to maintain previous deals reached with Libyan warlords to block migrants from setting off and to deterring NGOs from rescuing migrants at sea. 

Following Sunday’s election, Italian migrant organizations say they expect a dramatic increase in deportations of failed of asylum-seekers. 

While old guard Italian politicians argued Monday that gridlock and coalition-building will result in the populists from M5S and the Lega having to moderate their euro-skepticism as well as their suspicion of free markets and open societies, populists across Europe and in America welcomed the election upheaval. Marine Le Pen, a friend of Lega leader Matteo Salvini, applauded the results, tweeting: “The spectacular progression and the arrival at the top of the Lega led by our ally and friend @matteosalvinimi is a new stage in the awakening of peoples! Warm congratulations!”

European populists say populists in Italy will be further enabled and strengthened, if Sunday’s election upheaval does turn into much ado about nothing, as it will just build up more frustration that they willbe able to feed off. 

European and American populists say that the weakening of the center in Italian politics will further rattle the European Union, which has already been shaken by Britain’s decision to leave the bloc as well as the electoral weakening last year of Chancellor Angela Merkel in Germany. 

On Tuesday, Donald Trump’s former chief strategist, Steve Bannon, who observed the Italian elections, will point to the electoral performances of M5S and the Lega in a speech in Switzerland as marking a further major stage in the building of a broader populist movement throughout Europe and America, one that will change the West’s relationship with the rest of the world, including Asia and Africa, by changing the terms of trade and reshaping international institutions, from the UN to the EU.
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The International Criminal Court’s March calendar illustrates why the Hague-based tribunal remains a deeply polarizing institution, two decades after its conception.

Three appeals judgements next week deal with atrocities in Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, and attacks against cultural treasures in Timbuktu, Mali. Later this month, trial hearings continue against Dominic Ongwen, a former child soldier and senior commander of Uganda’s Lord’s Resistance Army rebel movement.

For years, the ICC has weathered accusations of being excessively and unfairly focused on Africa, and a painfully slow, inefficient and expensive institution. Some of the world’s biggest heavyweights, including the United States, China and Russia, are not ICC members, weakening its credibility.  More recently, the tribunal opened an internal probe into questionable dealings between court employees and its former prosecutor, Luis Moreno Ocampo.

But as is marks the 20th anniversary of the Rome Statute that created it, there are signs the ICC is broadening its scope, even if the controversy surrounding it has not diminished.

New directions?

In February, court prosecutor Fatou Bensouda opened preliminary investigations into alleged crimes by governments in the Philippines and Venezuela. And late last year she requested court approval to turn a decade-long initial inquiry into the war in Afghanistan into a formal investigation, which might include alleged torture by American forces and the Central Intelligence Agency. If granted, the only formal investigations pursued against a non-African country, after Georgia.

“The ICC has been working where it can work, and now it’s starting to work in other regions of the world and that is positive,” says Elizabeth Evenson, associate international justice director for Human Rights Watch.  “But we still have a long way to go to make sure the court has the political support and space to address atrocities in more places around the world.”

Court supporters argue the Hague-based tribunal’s existence and mandate, covering some of the most heinous crimes on the planet, committed in countries without the means or will to offer justice, makes it an inevitable lightening rod, and that its budget, in fact, cannot cover it’s daunting mandate.

The ICC has scored a few victories, including a groundbreaking case treating the destruction of cultural heritage as a war crime.  Its 2016 conviction of former Congolese vice-president and warlord Jean-Pierre Bemba drew jubilation and fueled hopes of justice in places with little history of it.  Some also argue the ICC gives victims a powerful voice and serves as a deterrent against more heinous crimes.

Yet the 40 or so indictments the ICC has issued since opening its doors in 2002 have led to just four convictions. And at every step in the judicial process, African cases dominate, accounting for all the convictions and, until recently, almost all the preliminary and formal investigations.

“Africa does not count for 100 percent of the world’s population, but not a soul outside of Africa has been indicted after 20 years,” says J. Peter Pham, vice-president of Washington DC research group, the Atlantic Council.

Anger over Africa bias’

The perception of bias has nurtured mounting resentment and outright rebellion among some African governments, depriving the court of the political legitimacy it needs, Pham says.

[[Sudan’s President Omar Bashir has made dozens of trips around the world since the ICC’s 2009 arrest warrant against him.  Last October, Burundi became the first member state to withdraw from the ICC, complicating a formal investigation the ICC opened days later into killings and disappearances in the country between 2015-2017.

In one of its biggest setbacks, the ICC was also forced to drop cases against Kenya’s president and vice-president for lack of sufficient evidence, amid accusations of witness harassment and lack of cooperation from the Kenyan government.

Analyst Pham says, the ICC not only took on a “democratically elected president” in Uhuru Kenyatta, albeit following a disputed vote, but also refused to give him time to manage a terrorist attack in Nairobi that took place during the proceedings.

“I’m not a cheerleader for President Kenyatta,” Pham adds.  “But it’s precisely this full-speed-ahead, torpedoes-be-damned approach that gets the court into trouble, and enables those, for less-than-honorable reasons, to discredit it.”

The ICC does not always choose its targets, a number come at the request of the U.N. Security Council and African nations.

New challenges beyond Africa

In the Philippines, where the court is looking into the government’s deadly war on drugs, President Rodrigo Duterte has called the tribunal “useless” and threatened to withdraw.  Analysts say the court will be challenged to protect witnesses, get government cooperation and manage expectations in what may be a years-long effort.

In Venezuela, where the prosecution is examining arrests and allegations of excessive force during anti-government protests from 2017 or earlier, the attorney general claimed the prosecution is basing its investigation on “biased” information.

Afghanistan may be most formidable challenge.  If the court grants a formal investigation, after an 11-year preliminary investigation, it could lead to groundbreaking war-crime indictments against Americans for alleged atrocities committed in Afghanistan, and also at alleged CIA detention centers in Eastern European countries where the he court has jurisdiction.

Some critics consider such a move foolhardy, joining broader calls for the ICC to take on cases it stands a chance to win.

“The problem is that none of the target authorities is likely to cooperate,” professor and author Thierry Cruvellier wrote in the New York Times, referring to the United States, the Afghan government, and Taliban. “The ICC will be able to claim it no longer targets only Africans … but it will keep showing its own powerlessness.”

But Katherine Gallagher, a senior lawyer at the New York-based the Center for Constitutional Rights, called a formal probe into Afghanistan’s war and holding U.S. officials accountable “long overdue.”

“It will demonstrate,” she wrote, “that no-one is above the law.”
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Thousands of Spaniards for unity marched Sunday in Barcelona in support of a grassroots group that mocks Catalonia’s separatist movement.

The group, “Platform for Tabarnia,” facetiously calls for the secession of the cities of Barcelona and Tarragona from Catalonia – allowing them to remain in Spain as the rest of Catalonia calls for secession.

Under the slogan “the joke is over — long live Tabarnia,” as many as 15,000 pro-unity Spaniards waving flags of Spain and the fictitious Tabarnia took to Barcelona streets.

The group also employs the slogan, “Barcelona is not Catalonia,” a twist on the state’s secessionist slogan, “Catalonia is not Spain.”

Political unrest has rocked Catalonia since it unsuccessfully tried to secede from Spain in September.Independence parties maintained a slim majority in the state following December elections, but leader Carles Puigdemont is exiled in Brussels, while other former leaders are in jail.
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More than 47 million Italians are eligible to vote in Sunday’s general election, and polling booths will remain open until late with exit polls expected immediately after closing.  Opinion polls were banned in the past two weeks of the campaign, but surveys before suggested no party would win the needed majority to govern the country.

This election is expected to determine the makeup of the new 945-member Italian parliament and the next government. It is Italy’s 18th general election since 1948. But much uncertainty surrounds the outcome of the vote with the main contenders having predicted victory.

Three time former 81-year-old Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has brought his center-right Forza Italia party into an alliance with the anti-immigrant League headed by Matteo Salvini and the far-right Brothers of Italy, headed by Giorgia Meloni. This group stands the best chances of coming close to a majority, but recent opinion polls predicted it would come short of the needed 40 percent to govern.

Rome resident Leopoldo Targiani says he will vote in this direction.

“I decided to vote for Forza Italia, Berlusconi because I have certain ideas which are very close to him but not all of them. In Italy, the panorama is a little bit confusing,” he said.

Another Rome resident, Riccardo Frulli, has decided the League is the only party that can bring change. He says Italy urgently needs to deal with the high level of youth unemployment, high taxation and public spending, as well as immigration.

“In this moment we have a lot of problems like the huge flow of migrants that are approaching every day our territory,” he said. “We have also a below average security level with most of the people that have a bad feeling of danger.”

The populist and Five Star Movement, which did not exist 10 years ago and is headed by 31-year-old Luigi Di Maio, could emerge as the largest single party.

Di Maio has made clear he wants to lead the country’s new government and his party will make no compromises or join forces with others.

In essence, the youngest in this electoral contest is facing his toughest opposition from one of the oldest. Berlusconi is banned from holding public office until next year due to a tax fraud conviction and is backing European Parliament President Antonio Tajani as his choice to lead the country. But League leader Salvini also has prime minister ambitions.

Also a player in these elections is the ruling Democratic Party with current prime minister Paolo Gentiloni considered the most popular single politician and party leader, and former prime minister Matteo Renzi also likely to gather a substantial number of votes.

Many Italians casting their ballots in the fourth-largest EU economy admitted their concern about the country’s future.

This lady said, hope is the last to die, so hopefully things will change for the better because it can’t get worse than this. She says Italy has reached the bottom, it can only come back up.

Observers say the chances of a hung parliament are high. In such a scenario, the Italian head of state, Sergio Mattarella, would have to find a cross-party solution to create a government; a grand coalition of various parties would have to come together. This could take weeks of negotiations and if an agreement for a workable government is not reached, Italians could head back to the polls.

 
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In advance of International Women’s Week (March 5), a report by the Inter-Parliamentary Union finds little progress is being made in increasing the number of women parliamentarians around the world.

Before 2016, the Inter-Parliamentary Union reports the number of women being elected to Parliaments around the world was increasing annually on average by six percent. But it says this encouraging upward trend seems to have come to an end.

Over the past two years, the IPU finds the number of women in national parliaments globally has increased only by about one percent. It says women represent fewer than one-quarter of world parliamentarians.

IPU secretary-general, Martin Chungong says women are faring better in countries that have electoral quota systems than in those that do not.

“So, this actually calls for more countries to adopt quota systems to try to level the playing field,” he said. “We need more and more women in parliament to create a critical mass so that parliamentary decisions and outcomes are adequately informed by the interests of both men and women. And this… is a very major factor for legitimacy and effectiveness in decision-making processes.”

Progress in Africa

A look at the IPU’s League table of 193 countries, shows a number of bright spots. As in past years, Rwanda comes out on top in the rankings, with more than 61 percent women parliamentarians. Senegal in ninth position outranks 10th placed Norway, with nearly 42 percent female representation. These compare favorably with the United States, which ranks 100, with a dismal showing of just over 19 percent women lawmakers.

Regionally, the report finds the Nordic countries leading. It says Europe, which has made the greatest gains in the number of women MPs, also recorded the greatest losses. It shows some improvement being made in Latin America, with Argentina, Chile and Ecuador as trailblazers.

IPU says sub-Saharan Africa has stabilized at nearly 24 percent and Algeria was the only country in the Arab region to hold elections for its legislature last year. While female participation in Asia’s electoral process remains low, the report says the Pacific region, with 15.5 percent women MPs, holds up the bottom of the rankings.

 
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Italy’s former prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, made a surprise appearance at a chapel in Naples Saturday, one day before Italians vote in a general election to select a new parliament.

Politicians were forbidden to campaign Saturday, but Berlusconi’s visit to the Sansevero chapel drew crowds of journalists and fans. The 81-year-old Berlusconi told reporters that he and his 30-year-old girlfriend were visiting the chapel as tourists. He said the chapel was part of the country’s heritage, to which “no other country in the world can remotely compete against.”

Berlusconi, who served four terms as prime minister, cannot run in Sunday’s election because of a tax fraud conviction in 2013; but he is the driving force behind the center-right Forza Italia party and has thrown his support behind former European Parliament President Antonio Tajani to serve as prime minister if the party wins enough seats.

But forecasters say the election results will probably not end with a clear party as winner, forcing the parties to form a ruling coalition — something that could mean weeks of uncertainty as the parties compete and compromise in a bid to form a workable team.

Populism is a strong force in this election, as it was in recent elections in Britain, France, and Germany.

Three populist-driven major parties are fielding candidates and promising to crack down on immigration. Forza Italia could find coalition partners in the far-right Brothers of Italy or the anti-migrant Lega, or League, party.

Also populist is the Five-star Movement, but the party takes an anti-establishment stance and has vowed not to form coalitions.

On the left, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s Democratic Party, the leader of the ruling coalition, could see a drop in support due to Italy’s sluggish economy, with high unemployment and stagnant economic growth. Italy is also struggling to accommodate a large influx of immigrants, and Renzi is personally unpopular.

The Democratic Party is in a coalition with the Democratic Progressive Party and the Italian Left.

Of those, the Democratic Party is by far the strongest player — but this year’s wave of Italian populism could deliver victory for the right wing on Sunday.

With that outcome, Italians may find themselves with a governing coalition focused on cracking down on immigration, reforming the nation’s tax system, and trying to bridge complicated divides — with no guarantee of positive results.
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A Polish campaign group is suing an Argentine newspaper it says breached a new law that makes it a criminal offence to suggest Poland was complicit in the Holocaust.

In what appeared to be the first legal action under the so-called Holocaust law, just hours after it took effect, the Polish League Against Defamation said it filed a complaint against Argentina’s Pagina 12 daily. The paper said it had not received formal notice of the lawsuit.

A minister from Poland’s conservative government applauded the move to invoke the law which Warsaw says will protect it from slander, but which the United States and Israel said would suppress authentic historic research and free speech.

The League, a non-governmental group that campaigns to protect Poland’s historical reputation abroad, said that in December 2017 Pagina 12 used a photograph of Polish so-called ‘doomed soldiers’ who fought against communists after the war to illustrate an article on the Jedwabne pogrom of 1941 in which Nazi occupiers and local inhabitants colluded in the massacre of at least 340 Jews.

“The combination of these two threads: information about the crime on Jews in Jedwabne during the German occupation and the presentation of fallen soldiers of the independence underground is manipulation, an act to the detriment of the Polish nation,” the organization said in a statement.

The ruling Law and Justice party has praised the “doomed soldiers.” While many are seen as national heroes in the struggle against Soviet domination, some led killings of Jews, Belarusians and other minorities.

In an article posted on its website on Saturday evening, Pagina 12 said, “this newspaper did not receive any legal communication and only learned of the information through international news agency reports.”

“If successful, this attempt at international censorship could threaten freedom of expression worldwide,” the article read.

Deputy Justice Minister Michal Wojcik said he hoped the case would go to court.

“The organization has a right to submit such a notice. If the court decides the complaint is admissible – and it should do so — then there will be a court case,” he told private radio station Zet.

Jews from across Europe were sent to be killed at death camps built and operated by Germans in occupied Poland — home to Europe’s biggest Jewish community at the time — including Auschwitz, Treblinka, Belzec and Sobibor.

Some 3 million Jews who lived in pre-war Poland were murdered by the Nazis, accounting for about half of all Jews killed in the Holocaust.

Thousands of Poles risked their lives to protect Jewish neighbors during the war. But research published since the fall of communism in 1989 showed that thousands also killed Jews or denounced those who hid them to the Nazi occupiers, challenging the national narrative that Poland was solely a victim.

According to figures from the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum, the Nazis, who invaded Poland in 1939, also killed at least 1.9 million non-Jewish Polish civilians.
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An avalanche in the French Pyrenees swept away five Spanish skiers on Saturday, killing two, local authorities said.

The avalanche hit near the Aragnouet-Bielsa tunnel linking France to Spain. Three of the skiers managed to extract themselves from the snow and were unharmed.

One skier was killed at the scene and the other died after being evacuated to hospital in the city of Toulouse.

On Friday, an avalanche in the French Alps killed four people. Their guide escaped unharmed and was questioned by police on Friday evening. He was released on Saturday. 
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British Prime Minister Theresa May has said she is confident that a deal can be done on leaving the European Union but warned that ‘no one will get everything they want’ out of Britain’s EU exit. In a key speech Friday, May urged both sides to move faster. The UK is to leave the EU at the end of March next year, but wants a two-year transition period. As Henry Ridgwell reports, there are growing doubts that a comprehensive deal can be reached within that time.
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“Absolutely unacceptable” were the words Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau used to describe U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement that he plans to impose 25 percent tariffs on imported steel and 10 percent on imported aluminum products.

Trudeau made the comment Friday, adding that he is prepared to “defend Canadian industry.” Canada is the United States’ biggest foreign source of both materials. He warned that the tariffs would also hurt U.S. consumers and businesses by driving up prices.

The European Union was also stung by Trump’s plan, as evidenced by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s warning that the EU could respond by taxing quintessentially American-made products, such as bourbon whiskey, blue jeans and Harley-Davidson motorcycles.

Juncker told German media Friday that he does not like the words “trade war.” “But I can’t see how this isn’t part of warlike behavior,” he said.

Trump had tweeted earlier in the day: “Trade wars are good, and easy to win.”

The director of the World Trade Organization, Roberto Azevedo, responded coolly, saying, “A trade war is in no one’s interests.” 

The currency market responded with a drop in the value of the U.S. dollar against most other major currencies. It ended the day at its lowest level against the yen in two years. The euro gained a half-percent against the dollar on Friday.

And the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the trading week with its fourth decline in as many days, ending at 24,538.06. The Nasdaq and S&P 500, however, rose slightly after a three-day losing streak.

Trump spent Friday defending his threat to impose the tariffs, saying potential trade conflicts can be beneficial to the United States.

“When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win,” Trump wrote in a post on the social media site Twitter. “Example, when we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore — we win big. It’s easy!” 

A Japanese government official told VOA that Tokyo “has explained several times to the U.S. government our concerns,” but declined to comment further on any ongoing discussions with Washington.

“While we are aware of the president’s statement, we understand that the official decision has not been made yet,” the Japanese official said. “If the U.S. is going to implement any measures, we expect the measures be WTO-rules consistent.” 

China on Friday expressed “grave concern” about the matter. 

Trump said Thursday the tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum imports will be in effect for a long period of time. He said the measure will be signed “sometime next week.” 

In 2017, Canada, Brazil, South Korea and Mexico accounted for nearly half of all U.S. steel imports. That year, Chinese steel accounted for less than 2 percent of overall U.S. imports. 

 William Gallo, Fern Robinson, Wayne Lee contributed to this report
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The Turkish military says eight Turkish soldiers and 13 others were wounded in fighting in northern Syria’s Afrin enclave in one of the deadliest days for the Turkish military since it launched “Operation Olive Branch” against the Syrian Kurdish militia, YPG, in January.

“May God grant peace to our martyred soldiers in Afrin. All my condolences to their loved ones,” tweeted Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin.

In a sign of the continuing cross-party support for the operation, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party, tweeted “We trust our army, we have no doubt that they will succeed in their mission to fight terror.” 

Turkey’s defense minister, Nurettin Canikli, said Friday that 41 Turkish soldiers and 116 Free Syrian Army members have been killed in Operation Olive Branch.

Turkey’s mainstream media is offering little criticism of the operation, and protests and dissent on social media are banned. International relations professor Husein Bagci of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University says history has shown that the more deaths there are in a conflict, the more difficult it will be for the Turkish government to maintain support for it.

“The psychology of the people will change from happiness to them being very unhappy, with what is happening. This is probably already happening. The more Turkey stays there [in Syria] the more unhappiness,” he said.

Widening conflict

Thursday also saw a widening of the conflict in Afrin, with reports of 14 members of a pro-Damascus militia being killed in Turkish airstrikes. The militiamen had joined Kurdish YPG forces resisting Turkey’s offensive.

The threat of extending the conflict beyond YPG forces is likely to put more pressure on Turkey to curtail its incursion into northern Syria. Ankara insists the operation is about securing Turkey’s borders from the threat posed by YPG, which it accuses of supporting a Kurdish insurgency inside Turkey. Ankara is infuriated with its allies over what it perceives as a lack of support for what it claims is its legitimate right to fight terrorism.

“Turkey will likely get more angry with a lot of people, not only with the West,” warned political columnist Semih Idiz of Al Monitor website, “There is already potential trouble brewing with Iran, not everything is hunky-dory [agreeable] with Russia. The dialogue with the Arab world is non-existent. This could lead to more isolation for Turkey.”

Civilian deaths

Ankara is also facing growing international criticism over how it’s conducting its operation.

“It appears that vulnerable civilians are facing displacement and death because of the way Turkey’s latest offensive is being conducted,” said Larma Fakih, deputy Middle East director at the U.S.-based Human Rights Watch. “Turkey is obligated to take every feasible precaution to avoid harming or killing civilians, and to help them if they want to flee the violence.”

The rights group highlighted three separate incidents in which it accused Turkish forces of negligence resulting in the deaths of civilians. Similar concerns and criticism have been raised by the London-based Amnesty International rights group. While the YPG Kurdish militia also was blamed by Amnesty for indiscriminate use of mortars in civilian areas, Amnesty’s most scathing criticism was reserved for Turkish forces.

“Reports of shelling of villages and residential areas in cities are deeply troubling,” said Lynn Maalouf, Amnesty International’s Middle East research director. “The use of artillery and other imprecise explosive weapons in civilian areas is prohibited by international humanitarian law and all parties should cease such attacks immediately,” it said.

Amnesty, siting eyewitnesses, claimed scores of civilians have been killed by Turkish forces.

The Kurdish Red Crescent reported that between Jan. 22 and Feb. 21, 2018, 93 civilians were killed, including 24 children. A further 313 civilians were wounded, including 51 children.

‘Black propaganda’

Rejecting growing criticism, Ankara insists its forces are taking the utmost precautions to avoid civilian casualties. “To date, no civilians have died or even been hurt in Turkish Armed Forces operations,” declared Deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bozdag in February.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claims such steps are the reason why the Afrin operation is proceeding slowly. All reports of civilian casualties are routinely dismissed by Turkish officials as “black propaganda.” A similar stance is taken by Turkey’s media, which rarely acknowledged even claims of civilian deaths.

International concern for civilians is likely to grow, with the Turkish offensive heading toward increasingly urbanized areas of the Afrin enclave, with the ultimate goal being the city of Afrin, home to several hundred thousand people.

But for now, Ankara is relying on its strategic importance in the region to get its way.

“Every country involved in the region is being very cautious with Turkey,” claimed columnist Idiz, “so having this critical mass means Turkey can muscle its way on many occasions. But will it ultimately get its way remains to be seen.”
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U.S. military planners are brushing aside Moscow’s claims that its military has an array of new strategic nuclear weapons that can hit any target anywhere in the world. Russian President Vladimir Putin boasted about his military’s newfound capabilities in a speech ahead of the Russian elections. But U.S. military officials are downplaying Putin’s claims. VOA National Security Correspondent Jeff Seldin reports from the Pentagon.
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