Новини

Climate change is usually thought to bring hotter weather, but scientists say it can also make some places colder. Temperature changes mean some plants and animals struggle to survive, while others seek new territory. That may be the case for one species of barracuda that is living in colder waters than it normally would. A school of them have settled near an island off the coast of Croatia in the Adriatic Sea. VOA’s Deborah Block has the story.
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Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Bavarian allies are heading for their worst state election result in more than 60 years in a regional vote Sunday that is likely to increase tensions within Germany’s fragile coalition government.

According to the latest polls, the Christian Social Union (CSU) will win about 34 percent, losing the absolute majority with which the center-right party has controlled its southeastern heartland for most of the postwar period.

Voting stations open at 8 a.m. (0600 GMT) and broadcasters are expected to publish exit polls shortly after 6 p.m. (1600 GMT).

Who wins, loses

One of the biggest winners are likely to be the ecologist, pro-immigration Greens who are projected to more than double their vote share to up to 19 percent and overtake the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) as the second-strongest party.

The regional protest party Free Voters and the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party are both forecast to win roughly 10 percent of the votes.

This could complicate CSU State Premier Markus Soeder’s efforts to form a stable coalition government in Bavaria.

The splintered electoral result could force Soeder, who has ruled out a coalition with the AfD, into an awkward alliance with the left-of-center Greens.

Scaring away voters

Horst Seehofer, CSU party leader and interior minister in Merkel’s federal government, could face calls to give up at least one of his posts following the Bavarian election as his hard-line rhetoric against asylum seekers is likely to scare away voters.

“We’ve lost trust because of the CSU,” Volker Bouffier, deputy party leader of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), told Welt am Sonntag newspaper. He accused Seehofer of damaging the image of the CDU/CSU conservative alliance.

Bouffier is premier in the state of Hesse where another regional election will be held later this month.

Seehofer has been among Merkel’s fiercest critics following her decision in 2015 to welcome more than 1 million migrants. He has gradually shifted the CSU, the sister party to the CDU, to the right to counter the rise of the AfD party.

Divisions between the conservative allies have widened further since March, when an inconclusive national election forced them into a coalition with the left-leaning SPD.

Merkel’s fourth and probably final government has come close to collapsing twice, in arguments over immigration and a scandal over Germany’s former domestic spymaster. The parties are also at odds over how to phase out polluting diesel cars and whether to grant tax cuts for the rich.
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The head of the Democratic Unionist Party, the Northern Irish party that props up British Prime Minister Theresa May’s government, is “ready” to trigger a no-deal Brexit and now regards it as the “likeliest” outcome, The Observer reported Saturday, citing a leaked email.

The newspaper said Arlene Foster told Ashley Fox, leader of Conservative Members of the European Parliament (MEPs), she had a “hostile and difficult” exchange at her meeting this week with Michel Barnier, the French official leading the European Union’s negotiating team.

“AF said the DUP were ready for a no-deal scenario, which she now believed was the likeliest one,” according to the email, whose sender or recipient the newspaper did not identify.

The Observer said it was one of several emails “leaked from the highest levels of government” that it had seen.

A DUP spokesman declined to comment beyond what Foster wrote for an article published in Saturday’s Belfast Telegraph. In it, Foster said she would prefer no Brexit deal to a bad deal, describing current plans as amounting to “the annexation of Northern Ireland” by the EU.

British and European Union negotiators this month accelerated the push for a Brexit deal, but talks remain snagged over the issue of the border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and the Irish Republic, an EU member state.

Without a comprehensive EU-UK trade partnership after Brexit, the EU is seeking a “backstop” arrangement whereby Northern Ireland would effectively remain subject to the bloc’s regulations to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland.

But the DUP, whose support May needs to pass legislation in the British Parliament, vehemently opposes any proposals that treat the province differently from the rest of the UK.

“I fully appreciate the risks of a ‘no deal’ [Brexit] but the dangers of a bad deal are worse,” Foster wrote in the Telegraph article.

“This backstop arrangement would not be temporary. It would be the permanent annexation of Northern Ireland away from the rest of the United Kingdom and forever leave us subject to rules made in a place where we have no say,” she added.

‘No game’

Britain wants any “backstop” arrangement to be time-limited. Hard-line supporters of Brexit in May’s ruling Conservative Party fear it could be used to indefinitely keep the entire UK inside a customs union with the EU.

The EU is opposed to any specific cutoff date.

Foster said her party, which has 10 lawmakers in the UK Parliament, was not bluffing in its tough stance.

“This is no game. Anyone engaging in this in a lighthearted way foolishly fails to grasp the gravity of the decisions we will make in the coming weeks,” Foster said. “The coming days, weeks and months will be critical. The decisions taken will shape the type of Northern Ireland that our grandchildren will live in.”

Foster said she wanted a workable deal for both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland and would travel to Dublin for talks on Monday.

In an article in another Northern Ireland newspaper, the Belfast News Letter, former British Foreign Minister Boris Johnson also took aim at the backstop, describing May’s agreement to accept it as a “dreadful mistake.”

“The only way to put things back on the right track is to ditch the backstop,” Johnson wrote.
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A car carrying migrants collided with a truck in northern Greece Saturday, killing 11 people, police said.

Ten of the victims were believed to be migrants who crossed into the Greece from Turkey. The 11th person was the driver and a suspected migrant smuggler, police said. 

Police said the car in which the migrants were packed had another vehicle’s license plates and is suspected of having been used for migrant trafficking. The car had not stopped at a police checkpoint during its journey, but it wasn’t immediately clear how close to the site of the crash that it happened.

Increase in migrants

Police said the crash occurred just after 5 a.m. (0200 GMT) near the town of Kavala. The car, which had been heading to the main northern city of Thessaloniki, collided with a truck heading in the opposite direction and burst into flames. All of the victims have been burned beyond recognition. The truck caught fire as well. 

All those in the car were killed. The truck driver, a 39-year-old Greek man, was treated for minor injuries in a hospital in northern Greece before being discharged.

Greek authorities have been seeing an increase in people illegally crossing the Greek-Turkish border in recent months. Many are transported to Thessaloniki, where they head to police stations to be registered and apply for asylum.

Spanish rescues

Elsewhere, Spain’s maritime rescue service says it recovered the bodies of three migrants and feared that another 17 were missing in the Mediterranean Sea. 

The service says that its rescue craft found the three bodies in waters near a sinking boat it intercepted east of the Strait of Gibraltar. Rescuers saved 36 men of sub-Saharan origin from the boat. The saved migrants said that another 17 men who had traveled with them were missing. 

In total, the service pulled 509 migrants from 15 small boats Friday. 

The United Nations says that 337 of the total of 1,783 migrants who have died trying to reach Europe by sea in 2018 perished in waters near Spain.

 
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Russia’s top diplomat on Friday called the Ecumenical Patriarchate’s decision to recognize the Ukrainian Orthodox Church’s independence from Moscow a Washington-backed “provocation,” from which he vowed to protect “the faithful” in Ukraine if the schism sparks violence.

On Thursday, Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople, the Istanbul-based head of global Orthodox Christianity, recognized Ukrainian churches as independent from the Russian Orthodox Church, ending the Moscow Patriarchy’s 332-year oversight of Ukrainian parishes.

The move has immediately restored Ecumenical Patriarchate jurisdiction over all Orthodox faithful in Ukraine, granting the Ukrainian Orthodox Church the right to autocephaly — the ecclesiastical term for self-governance. Under this decree, leaders of Ukraine’s Orthodox Christian community will be able to form an independently administrated Ukrainian Orthodox Church.

Calling the decision “a provocation by Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople, undertaken with direct public support from Washington,” Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov described the move as part of a conspiracy in violation of internationally recognized laws.

“Interfering in church life is forbidden by law in Ukraine, in Russia, and, I hope, in any normal state,” he said, according to a transcript of a press conference posted on the Foreign Ministry’s website.

The decision, which has sparked celebration in Kyiv and outrage in Moscow, is a victory in Ukraine’s struggle to keep Moscow at bay since its 2014 annexation of Crimea and its continued support for separatists fighting against Kyiv in the east, where violence has claimed an estimated 10,000 lives.

Theologian Sergei Chapnin recently wrote in Bloomberg News that “there’s a real danger that the rift could lead to bloodshed, an outcome that all sides must act decisively to prevent.”

Although the Kyiv Patriarchy’s formal break from Moscow has been discussed intermittently since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian aggression since 2014 has widened fissures running throughout Eastern Europe’s Slavic Orthodox community, hastening the split being witnessed this week.

“This step by the Kyiv Patriarchy was expected for a long time, and it is in response to many factors,” said Archimandrite Cyril Hovorun, acting director of the Huffington Ecumenical Institute at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles.

“The Ukrainian people are divided. There are millions of Orthodox people who don’t have an alternative to the Moscow Patriarchy … and those people want to belong to an independent church that is free from Russian propaganda, free from collaboration with the Russian regime,” he told VOA, calling the Moscow Patriarchy an ideological instrument of Russian aggression in Ukraine.

“Because the church was intertwined with this aggressive policy of the Russian state, the response to the Russian aggression now includes also response to the ecclesial issue,” he said. “So, the ecclesial issue in Ukraine — the church issue in Ukraine — has become a part of the political and security agenda for the state.”

Even then, he added, the Kyiv Patriarchy’s divorce from Moscow will give the faithful more options in terms of how they choose to practice their faith.

“This move is wise because it corresponds completely to the principle of freedom of consciousness, of freedom of religion,” he said, explaining that all Ukraine-based parishioners will be able to choose which type of Orthodox Church they want to attend — including those guided by tenets of the Russian Orthodox tradition.

“And the [Ukrainian] state really stressed that in the statements by [President Petro Poroshenko] and other political officials, that they will respect that choice of the people and that communities can belong to any jurisdiction they want.”

In September, Patriarch Filaret, head of the Kyiv Patriarchy, told VOA’s Ukrainian Service that the process of unifying Ukraine’s Orthodoxy will guarantee that each parish will be free to determine its future.

“Religious infighting would be a justification for [Russian President Vladimir] Putin to interfere in Ukraine’s internal affairs,” he said, vowing to avoid bloodshed at all costs. “We want this process to be free of violence. If they don`t want to join a Ukrainian church, they can stay with the Russian church.”

Kyiv’s formal split from Moscow, he added, means that the Russian Orthodox Church will not only lose most of its political and ideological influence over Ukrainian faithful, but also its standing as one of the leaders of global Orthodoxy.

“Currently, Moscow’s Patriarchy together with the Ukrainian church is the biggest Orthodox church in the world,” he told VOA, adding that Constantinople’s recognition of autocephaly cuts the Moscow Patriarchy to half its current size.

“It wouldn’t be able to fight for leadership in the Orthodox Church,” Filaret said, referring to a centuries-long geopolitical competition between Moscow and Constantinople to claim command of Orthodoxy’s quarter-billion followers worldwide.

Although more than two-thirds of Ukrainians are Orthodox Christians, Russia is home to the largest number of Orthodox faithful, bolstering its national identity as a bastion of traditional Christian values, an image the Kremlin goes out of its way to project globally.

The next step in Ukraine’s split from Russia is to reunite its various strands of Orthodox faith under the new church, which includes deciding the fate of church buildings and monasteries, some of which are aligned to the Russian Orthodox Church.

At the start of 2018, Ukraine was home to roughly one-third of the Russian church’s parish holdings, according to Kyiv’s official data.

Russia’s past efforts to undermine the Kyiv Patriarchy’s move toward self-rule involved a cyberattack on Bartholomew’s top clergy, according to the Associated Press.

Last month, the State Department endorsed support for Ukraine’s Orthodox religious leaders’ pursuit of autocephaly, saying it “maintains unwavering support for Ukraine and its territorial integrity in the face of Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine and the Russian occupation of Crimea.”

This story originated in VOA’s Ukrainian Service. Some information is from AFP and Reuters.
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Paris Saint-Germain striker Kylian Mbappe’s rapid rise to global fame has earned the teenaged World Cup winner an appearance on the cover of Time magazine’s international edition.

Time said Mbappe was a global superstar who “is the future of soccer.”

Mbappe made headlines in September 2017 when he moved from Ligue 1 side Monaco to Paris Saint-Germain for a staggering 180 million euros ($207 million), a deal that saw the then 18-year-old player handed a reported monthly salary of 1.5m euros ($1.8m).

But the 19-year-old’s stock skyrocketed during this year’s World Cup, where a series of phenomenal displays drew compliments from Brazil legend Pele on his way to helping France end their 20-year wait to win another World Cup trophy.

Mbappe became the youngest French goal scorer in World Cup history when he struck in a 1-0 win over Peru in the group stages.

The teenager from the gritty Parisian suburb of Bondy then tore apart Argentina, scoring twice and earning a penalty as Les Blues eliminated the highly-fancied South Americans 4-3 in the last 16 knockout round.

In doing so, Mbappe became only the second teenager, after Pele in 1958, to score two goals in a World Cup match.

When Mbappe scored with a 25-yard strike in the final, a 4-2 win over Croatia, he became only the second teenager to do so, after Pele, in 1958.

With a total of four goals in the tournament, Mbappe received FIFA’s award for Best Young Player of the World Cup.

Arguably better still were the plaudits from Pele himself, who said: “If Kylian keeps on equaling my records, I’m going to have to dust off my boots.”

Mbappe’s teenage days will end when he celebrates his 20th birthday on December 20.

He played a key role for France on Thursday, equalizing from the penalty spot in a 2-2 friendly draw against Iceland.

 
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Britain’s Princess Eugenie wore an elegant voluminous dress by London-based label Peter Pilotto for her wedding to Jack Brooksbank on Friday, with the bride picking a low back to reveal scars she got from surgery as a child.

The 28-year-old granddaughter of Queen Elizabeth walked down the aisle of Windsor Castle’s 15th Century St George’s Chapel in a fitted corset and pleated skirt with a long train designed by Peter Pilotto and Christopher De Vos, who founded the label in 2007.

“The dress features a neckline that folds around the shoulders to a low back that drapes into a flowing full length train,” Buckingham Palace said in a statement. “The low back feature on the dress was at the specific

request of Princess Eugenie who had surgery aged 12 to correct

scoliosis.”

Eugenie, who announced her engagement in January, worked closely with Pilotto and De Vos for the bespoke dress, with the designers leafing through archives of frocks worn by British royals to pick a silhouette.

Motifs meaningful to the couple were woven into a jacquard of silk, cotton and viscose blend, the palace said. The designs included the thistle and shamrock, the flowers of Scotland and Ireland, and the English rose.

Eugenie borrowed the queen’s Greville Emerald Kokoshnik tiara, decorated with rose cut diamonds and emeralds and made by jewelers Boucheron in 1919 in the style worn in the Russian Imperial Court.

She wore diamond and emerald drop earrings given to her by

Brooksbank and satin peep-toe heels by Charlotte Olympia.

Speculation over who would design the wedding dress had mounted over the last few weeks, with labels such as Erdem, Ralph & Russo among those mentioned in media reports.

“As soon as we announced the wedding, I knew the designer, and the look, straight away,” she was quoted as saying. “I never thought I’d be the one who knew exactly what I like, but I’ve been pretty on top of it.”

Eugenie, who works in art and Brooksbank, who is European brand manager for Casamigos Tequila, a brand co-founded by Hollywood actor George Clooney, married at the same venue that her cousin Prince Harry and Meghan Markle chose for their nuptials in May.
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French President Emmanuel Macron said on Friday it was not clear whether a foiled attack on a Paris-based Iranian opposition group was ordered by the higher echelons of authorities in Tehran.

“As you know Iran is sometimes divided into different factions and tensions, and so I can’t say today whether the order came from the top or from this [security] service or that division,” he told France 24 television in an interview.

France’s foreign ministry said on Oct. 2 there was no doubt the Iranian intelligence ministry was behind the June plot and froze assets belonging to Tehran’s intelligence services and two Iranian nationals.

The plot targeted a meeting of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) outside Paris. U.S. President Donald Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani and several former European and Arab ministers attended the rally.

Belgium charged an Iranian diplomat and three other individuals on Oct. 10 with planning to bomb the meeting.

Two of the suspects were intercepted by Belgian police.

One senior French official told Reuters the plot is likely to have been hatched by hardliners looking to undermine President Hassan Rouhani, who has tried to improve Iran’s relations with the outside world.

Macron said he was still awaiting explanations, but that Rouhani had not given him any during two exchanges he had with the Iranian president.

The hardening of relations between Paris and Tehran could have far-reaching consequences for Rouhani’s government, which is looking to European capitals to salvage a 2015 nuclear deal after the United States pulled out and reimposed tough sanctions.

Macron repeated that there should be a more demanding policy toward Iran which needed to include keeping the existing deal, discussing its nuclear work after 2025 when parts of the agreement expire, its ballistic missile program and curtailing its regional influence.

“I’ve never been naive with Iran or thought it would be easy,” Macron said.
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The American evangelical Christian pastor at the center of a dispute between Ankara and Washington arrived at his home in Turkey on Friday after a Turkish court ruled he could go free, a move that may signal a major step towards mending ties between the allies.

Andrew Brunson arrived at his home in Turkey’s coastal province of Izmir, a Reuters cameraman said, having left the courthouse in a convoy of cars.

He was released after the court sentenced him to three years and 1-1/2 months in prison on terrorism charges, but said he would not serve any further jail time. The pastor has lived in Turkey for more than 20 years and was put in prison two years ago and has been under house arrest since July.

U.S. President Donald Trump, who has imposed sanctions on Turkey in an attempt to secure Brunson’s freedom, tweeted: “PASTOR BRUNSON JUST RELEASED. WILL BE HOME SOON!”

Dressed in a black suit, white shirt and red tie, the North Carolina native wept as the decision was announced, witnesses said. Before the judge’s ruling he had told the court: “I am an innocent man. I love Jesus, I love Turkey.”

After the ruling, Brunson’s lawyer told reporters the pastor was likely to leave Turkey. The U.S. military has a plan to fly Brunson back to America on a military aircraft, officials told Reuters.

The diplomatic standoff over Brunson, who had been pastor of the Izmir Resurrection Church, had accelerated a sell-off in Turkey’s lira currency, worsening a financial crisis.

Brunson had been accused of links to Kurdish militants and supporters of Fethullah Gulen, the cleric blamed by Turkey for a coup attempt in 2016. Brunson denied the accusation and Washington had demanded his immediate release.

Witnesses told the court in the western town of Aliaga that testimonies against the pastor attributed to them were inaccurate.

Brunson’s wife Norine looked on from the visitors’ area.

‘Great Christian’

Brunson’s mother told Reuters she and his father were elated at the news. “We are overjoyed that God has answered the prayers of so many people around the world,” she said.

Trump has scored points with evangelical Christians, a large part of his political base, by focusing on the Brunson case. The release could boost Trump’s ability to encourage such voters to support Republicans in large numbers in Nov. 6 elections, which will determine whether the party keeps control of Congress.

The heavily conservative constituency voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2016. He has called Brunson a “great Christian”, and Vice President Mike Pence, the White House’s top emissary to evangelicals, had urged Americans to pray for Brunson.

U.S. broadcaster NBC said on Thursday that Washington had done a secret deal with Ankara to secure Brunson’s release. The lira stood at 5.910 to the dollar at 1336 GMT, little changed on the day after firming 3 percent on

Thursday on expectations that Brunson would be freed.

NATO allies

Relations between the two NATO allies are also under strain over U.S. support for Kurdish fighters in northern Syria, Turkey’s plans to buy a Russian missile defence system, and the U.S. jailing of a executive at a Turkish state bank in an Iran sanctions-busting case.

With Brunson’s release, attention may now turn to the fate of a Turkish-U.S. national and former NASA scientist in jail in Turkey on terrorism charges, as well as three local employees of the U.S. consulate who have also been detained.

Washington wants all these people released, while Ankara has demanded the extradition of Gulen. The cleric, who was lived in self-imposed exile in the United States since 1999, denies any role in the attempted coup.

Friday’s decision could be a first step to ease tensions. Further moves which have been discussed include the return to Turkey of bank executive Mehmet Hakan Attila to serve out his sentence, the release of the U.S. consular staff, and agreement that the U.S. Treasury avoid draconian steps against Halkbank, the state lender.

 
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Russian laws passed since President Vladimir Putin’s 2012 return to the power have dramatically strengthened Kremlin control over the flow of information online and off, according to a new study by a London-based rights group.

The report, issued by PEN International’s Moscow and St. Petersburg offices, outlines restrictions on free expression since the beginning of Putin’s third term. The report covers legislation that criminalizes criticism of the government, the increasing propagandizing of state-run media, and efforts to target libraries for possessing vaguely defined “extremist materials.”

“Russia’s aggressive assault on free expression is happening on all fronts, with the crackdown affecting not only writers, journalists, civil society actors and artists but all Russians,” said Jennifer Clement, president of PEN International. “This report outlines the ways in which Russia’s voices are being silenced, but also makes suggestions as to how the Russian authorities can uphold their international obligations to safeguard free expression.”

Restricted public access to information and free expression by writers, artists and activists, said Nadezhda Azhgikhina, executive director of PEN-Moscow, has drastically narrowed the space for civic discourse in Russia when compared with the years preceding Putin’s third term.

One reason, she said, is that high-level operatives who enforce the crackdown have been able to silence dissenters with impunity for years.

“The lives of ‘independent journalists’ in Russia are hard, and some have paid the ultimate price,” she said. “We remember our fearless colleague and friend Anna Politkovskaya, who was shot in the lobby of her apartment block in central Moscow. Although she was assassinated 12 years ago almost to the day, the masterminds behind her killing have yet to be brought to justice. Impunity emboldens perpetrators. It is time to end this vicious circle once and for all.”

Politkovskaya, who covered Russian politics and the second Chechen war for international media outlets, was gunned down by assailants on Oct. 7, 2006. Five men — two former policemen and three Chechens — were convicted in 2014 of her murder.

Chechen assassins have been involved in a string of high-profile slayings of political and media critics of Putin in recent years, including leading opposition politician Boris Nemtsov, who was shot dead in February 2015 near the Kremlin. But in all the cases, rights activists have repeatedly shown, prosecutors have failed to investigate who ordered the contract-style killings.

State officials have maintained their innocence and denied any involvement in the killings.

The PEN report also documents politically motivated incarcerations, citing the May 2014 jailing of prominent Ukrainian writer and filmmaker Oleg Sentsov, a vocal opponent to Russia’s annexation of Crimea who was extradited to Russia in violation of international law to face a 20-year sentence on spurious terrorism charges.

The PEN report also portrays artistic and literary freedom under siege, with theater directors such Kirill Serebrennikov subject to prosecution and house arrest.

Authors of the report call on the Russian authorities to amend laws stifling free expression and reviewing anti-extremism laws for unduly broad infringements of the right to freedom of expression.

This story originated in VOA’s Russian service. 
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Speculation is growing that Turkey could allow American Pastor Andrew Brunson to return to the United States, ending a diplomatic standoff between Ankara and Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump has condemned Brunson’s prosecution on terrorism charges.

Several news organizations reported Thursday that the Trump administration had reached a deal with Turkey, easing some sanctions in exchange for Ankara’s reducing or dropping charges against Brunson.

Washington was expressing cautious optimism about Brunson’s release, which could come as early as Friday. 

“I’m very hopeful that before too long Pastor Brunson, he and his wife, will be able to return to the United States,” U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Wednesday.  Pompeo has reportedly been involved in intense, behind- the-scenes talks with Ankara over the release of Brunson.

On Thursday, State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert told reporters she was not aware of any deal for Brunson’s release. “There’s a legal process that plays out,” she said.

“I’m hopeful that before too long he and his wife will be able to return to the United States. That would be an important step forward for the U.S.-and-Turkey relationship. … But we look forward to watching the case very carefully tomorrow,” Nauert said.

She added that U.S. embassy officials would attend Friday’s hearing in support of Brunson.

Erdogan position

In a sign of Brunson’s possible release, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appeared to distance himself from any decision. “I am the president of the Turkish Republic, a democratic and constitutional state,” he said Tuesday.  “Hence, I must obey whatever the decision the judiciary gives.  All related parties must follow the judicial rulings. That’s it.”

Erdogan has been at the forefront of strong advocacy of Brunson’s prosecution as relations with Washington deteriorated.

The American pastor is facing up to 35 years in jail on terrorism and espionage charges. His next court hearing is scheduled for Friday.  Prosecutors accuse Brunson of supporting followers of the U.S.-based Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen, blamed by Turkey for the 2016 failed coup in Turkey.  Brunson is also accused of aiding the PKK, a banned Kurdish separatist group.

Washington describes the charges as baseless, accusing Ankara of diplomatic hostage-taking. Trump, in August, partly in retaliation for Brunson’s prosecution, slapped Turkey with trade tariffs.  The action triggered a collapse of the Turkish lira.  Erdogan hit back, accusing Washington of waging economic war.

“It’s not only the evangelical base of Donald Trump. A wide range of Americans mostly view Brunson and other American detainees as political hostages,” said political analyst Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners.

“Any normalization of relations is out of the question as long as Brunson is detained,” he added. “If Brunson is not allowed to return home after Friday’s hearing, Trump may become impatient and impose more sanctions.”

The threat of further U.S. sanctions against Turkey’s embattled economy is fueling speculation the pastor will be freed.

“Yes, I expect him to be released. There is more and more expectation Turkey will do it,” said international relations professor Huseyin Bagci of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University.

“With America, I don’t expect relations will get worse,” he added. “On the contrary, there will be durable stability, and in the long run, Turkey-U.S. relations will continue as before. Turkey and America need one another.”

Despite the current crisis in relations, which extends to many other issues, the two NATO allies are continuing to cooperate on Syria.  Ankara recently said that cooperation has improved.

The growing expectation of Brunson’s release Friday, and with it, the removal of further U.S. sanctions, is seen as a reason why the Turkish lira has stabilized after weeks of steep declines.

However, some analysts remain cautious, citing the opaque nature of Turkey’s decision-making process. “There is a significant risk these expectations [Brunson’s release] won’t be met,” said chief economist Inan Demir of Nomura International.  “It’s extremely difficult to gain insight into the thinking of the chief policymakers, so there is room for negative surprises, definitely.”

“I would say it’s a coin flip, 50-50, whether Brunson is released,” analyst Yesilada said.

“I don’t see a clear approach from the ruling AKP camp that he is going to be released. Certainly, there is no unified approach preparing public opinion for his release,” Yesilada added.

Analysts suggest Brunson’s release is complicated by some Erdogan advisers who are warning him about appearing weak in the face of Washington’s pressure.

There are numerous other outstanding issues between the NATO allies. Next month the United States is set to impose severe sanctions on Turkey’s neighbor, Iran, and Washington is lobbying Ankara to comply with the measures.

“Ankara could be looking for a reciprocal gesture by Washington for Brunson’s release,” said former senior Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen, who served in Washington. Trump has reportedly ruled out any concessions until Brunson is back in the United States. However, analysts point out Trump has so far not imposed any new measures against Turkey.

The Turkish state-owned Halkbank is facing a significant fine that could run into many billions of dollars for violating previous sanctions on Iran.  Analysts suggest the magnitude of the penalty could be linked to Brunson.

Analysts think a significant fine, along with the risk of further investigations and penalties against other Turkish banks, could deal a considerable blow to Turkey’s already-weakened financial system.

“It’s all like a house of cards.  Everything depends on whether Brunson is released,” said Yesilada.  “If he is released, it opens the door to resolving other issues [between Ankara and Washington]. The alternative is an escalation in tensions that could lead to all-out [sanctions] war, like the United States against Iran.”
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France’s Foreign Ministry says it has summoned Venezuela’s ambassador to France over the “suspicious” death earlier this week of an opposition councilor jailed by Venezuelan intelligence police on allegations he plotted to kill President Nicolas Maduro.

In a statement Thursday, the Quai d’Orsay said Hector Michel Mujica Ricardo was summoned earlier in the day. “France hopes light will be shed on this death through an impartial and independent investigation.”

No more details were provided.

Venezuelan officials say Fernando Alban killed himself by leaping from the 10th floor of the state police agency’s headquarters earlier this week. But opposition leaders reject the official version.

The United Nations has said it will investigate the death.
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