Month: April 2018

When the U.S. fired Tomahawk missiles at a Syrian airfield a year ago after a chemical weapons attack, the Pentagon gave Moscow advance warning to get its personnel out of harm’s way.

Since then, U.S.-Russian relations have soured, and the two nuclear powers have raised the ante, getting dangerously close to a potential military clash in Syria.

U.S. President Donald Trump has taunted Moscow to “get ready” for “nice and new and ‘smart”‘ missiles coming to punish Syria for a purported chemical attack on Saturday that killed at least 40 people. The tweet followed Russia’s warning that it will strike at incoming U.S. missiles and their launch platforms.

The defiant posture leaves both the White House and the Kremlin with fewer options to respond without losing face.

A stern statement last month by Russia’s top military officer effectively drew a red line on any U.S. strike. Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian military’s General Staff, said Russian military officers are at Syrian facilities throughout the country and warned that “if a threat to our servicemen emerges, the Russian armed forces will take retaliatory measures against both missiles and their carriers.”

Some say the U.S. could launch a limited strike like it did in April 2017, when it hit Syria’s Shayrat airfield with cruise missiles after warning Russia. Such a scenario would allow Washington to claim it made good on its promise to punish Syrian President Bashar al-Assad without triggering a clash with Russia.

A pinpoint U.S. strike on Syrian targets that does not harm Russian personnel “will allow Trump to say that the Assad regime has paid a heavy price … and Russia, in its turn, will be able to limit itself to ringing statements,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, the head of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policies, an association of top Russian political and security experts.

He added, however, that the U.S. would be unlikely to warn Russia of the coming strike this time.

“The context of the relations has changed radically in the past year: We’re in a state of a real and tangible Cold War,” Lukyanov said.

Cooling relations

Moscow’s hopes of warmer ties with Washington under Trump have been shattered by the ongoing U.S. investigations of alleged Russian interference in the 2016 election and its potential ties with the Trump campaign. The Trump administration has ramped up sanctions against Russia and expelled dozens of diplomats. Tensions between the two countries have escalated on a broad range of issues — from the crisis in Ukraine to the war in Syria to the poisoning of an ex-Russian spy in Britain, which triggered the massive diplomatic war.

President Vladimir Putin’s top adviser, Vladislav Surkov, said in an article released earlier this week that Russia has abandoned its centuries-long aspirations of integrating into the West and is bracing for a new era of “geopolitical loneliness.” Surkov warned that “it’s going to be tough,” but added cryptically that “it’ll be fun.”

Opinions vary about what may happen in Syria.

“The situation is pretty bad, but it shouldn’t be overdramatized,” Alexei Malashenko, a leading Russian expert on Syria said in televised remarks. “I don’t believe that a clash between Russia and the U.S. is possible.”

Washington and Moscow both have said that a hotline established in 2015 to prevent incidents between their militaries in Syria has worked well, but the rising stakes make the situation more unstable than ever during the Syrian conflict.

Possible scenarios

Under one possible scenario, Russia may try to use its sophisticated electronic warfare systems deployed in Syria to make U.S. missiles veer off course without shooting them down. If that softer option doesn’t work, the Russian military could use an array of its state-of-the-art air defense assets in Syria to target the U.S. cruise missiles or drones.

Vyacheslav Nikonov, a senior lawmaker in the Kremlin-controlled lower house of parliament, said in televised remarks that the Russian military was getting its electronic countermeasures and air defense assets ready for action. He added on a combative note that the situation offers a “good chance to test them in conditions of real combat.”

An even more threatening situation may evolve if the U.S. and its allies use manned aircraft, and the Russian strike results in casualties.

Such a scenario could trigger a quick escalation, leaving Russia and the U.S. on the brink of a full-scale conflict — a situation unseen even during the darkest moments of the Cold War.

Retired Lt. Gen. Yevgeny Buzhinsky, the former chief of the Russian Defense Ministry’s international department, warned that Russia has thousands of military advisers in Syria “practically in every battalion,” and a strike on any Syrian facility could jeopardize their lives. He warned that Russia and the U.S. will quickly find themselves in a major conflict if they allow a collision in Syria to happen.

“I have an impression that Americans’ survival instincts have grown numb, if not vanished completely,” Buzhinsky said. “They seem not to really believe that Russia will give a tough military response and expect some sort of a local brawl, exchanging some minor blows. It’s a miscalculation. Any clash between Russian and U.S. militaries will expand beyond a local conflict and an escalation will be inevitable.”

Fears of war

Andrei Klimov, the head of an upper house committee that investigates foreign meddling in Russian affairs, proudly said on the top talk show on Russian state TV that his relative, a Soviet pilot, won a medal for combat duty in Vietnam. Klimov pointed to heavy U.S. losses from Soviet missiles and jets in Vietnam, adding that Russia stands ready to counter any possible U.S. strike.

Unlike the Vietnam War, where Soviet advisers helping North Vietnam supposedly weren’t directly engaged in combat, the potential clash in Syria would pit Russia directly against the U.S.

Fears of war swept Russian newspaper headlines and TV news, with commentators discussing the darkest possible outcomes, including a nuclear war.

“What if the war starts tomorrow?” the front page of Moskovsky Komsomolets clamored on Wednesday. Russia’s best-selling newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda wondered: “Is macho Trump going to start World War III?”

Even former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev weighed in. The 87-year-old former president compared the tensions to the 1962 Cuban missile crisis and said he feels “great concern.”
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The daughter of poisoned former spy Sergei Skripal said Wednesday that she didn’t want help from the Russian Embassy as she recovers from the nerve agent attack that left her and her father in critical condition and created an international furor.

Yulia Skripal, 33, said in a statement that she found herself with a “totally different life” than the one she had before the March 4 poisoning in southwest England. She was released from the hospital this week, while Sergei Skripal remains hospitalized.

“I have been made aware of my specific contacts at the Russian Embassy who have kindly offered me their assistance,” Skripal, a Russian citizen who was visiting her father in the cathedral city of Salisbury, said in the statement. “At the moment, I do not wish to avail myself of their services, but if I change my mind I know how to contact them.”

Britain has blamed the attack on Russia, triggering the expulsion of more than 150 Russian diplomats from Western countries. Russia vehemently denies any involvement and has responded by expelling the same number of diplomats.

Russian criticism

Yulia Skripal’s statement, which was distributed by London’s Metropolitan Police, is important because the Russian Embassy in London has criticized the British government for not allowing diplomatic staff to visit the Skripals since they were stricken. Britain has said it is up to the father and daughter to decide whether they want to meet with embassy officials.

Earlier, the embassy protested that its requests for consular access had been “left without a substantial reaction on part of the British authorities.”

“We would like to know what exactly the British side did to comply with its international obligation under the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations and the bilateral Consular Convention, and what were the reasons for such a unfounded conclusion,” the embassy said.

Yulia Skripal’s statement also addressed a controversy over her cousin, Viktoria. British officials alleged that the cousin was a pawn of the Russian government after she gave interviews with Russian media outlets.

Skripal thanked Viktoria for her concern and asked her to “not visit me or try to contact me for the time being.”

“Her opinions and assertions are not mine and they are not my father’s,” Yulia Skripal said.
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One of Hungary’s two national opposition dailies will shut down on Wednesday due to financial problems, its publisher said, in a sign of rapidly deteriorating prospects for media freedom after the landslide re-election of Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

The closure of Magyar Nemzet will be a milestone in the gradual disappearance of independent media in Hungary that western European Union leaders and international rights groups say underlines the country’s slide into authoritarianism.

The 80-year-old daily is owned by tycoon Lajos Simicska, once an ally of the right-wing nationalist prime minister who fell out with him and became one of his staunchest opponents in the election campaign.

Simicska’s media holdings, once highly profitable, incurred heavy losses after he fell out with Orban and his publications were deprived of government advertising.

“Due to the financing problems of Magyar Nemzet, the owners have decided to cease media content production activity from April 11, 2018. Therefore Magyar Nemzet and its online version mno.hu will close,” the publisher said in on its website.

The timing of the announcement, two days after Orban won a two-thirds majority for the third time with the ability to amend the constitution to entrench his power, suggests the newspaper’s closure had political dimensions.

“Simicska dedicated his past year to revenge (against Orban), and his media portfolio was a conduit for that,” Policy Solutions analyst Tamas Boros said. “Now that he sees Orban with another two-thirds majority, it was no longer worth his while.”

“He sees the results, anticipates government revenge, and is shutting down unprofitable media organizations.”

Magyar Nemzet publisher’s will also close Lanchid Radio, a sister radio station, at midnight on Tuesday and seek buyers for other Simicska group outlets.

Orban has become the central European country’s dominant leader by projecting himself as a savior of its Christian culture against Muslim migration into Europe, an image which resonated with more than 2.5 million voters on Sunday.

Orban’s Fidesz party, in power since 2010, has turned public broadcasters into obedient mouthpieces, his closest allies have bought big stakes in privately owned media and advertising has been channelled to heavily benefit government-friendly outlets.

Businessmen close to the premier purchased then-shuttered Nepszabadsag, the country’s top opposition newspaper, in 2016.

They also bought up nearly all regional dailies and acquired dozens of radio licenses covering the entire country.

The only remaining independent publications with widespread reach are the RTL television group owned by Germany’s Bertelsmann and the news website Index.hu, where a close Simicska associate sits on the board of the foundation that owns the company.

The other independent national newspaper, Nepszava, is owned by ex-Socialist Party treasurer Laszlo Puch via an Austrian company, but has far less readership than Index.
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Russian retailers warned of price increase after ruble tumbles

European electronic and household goods manufacturers have warned Russian retailers of a possible 5 to 10 percent rise in prices after the ruble tumbled this week due to U.S. sanctions, retailers said on Tuesday.

Eldorado, which operates over 400 stores in Russia, said the hikes may mean it has to adjust its retail prices.

“Suppliers have already started warning of a possible 5-10 percent adjustment in prices,” a spokesperson for Eldorado told Reuters, adding that the warnings had primarily come from European manufacturers that do not produce goods in Russia.

A spokesperson for M.Video, which operates a network of 424 stores, also said that some of its suppliers had told them of plans to raise prices by between 5 and 10 percent.

The ruble fell sharply on Monday as investors took fright after a new round of U.S. sanctions against Moscow, targeting officials and businessmen around Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The ruble extended its losses on Tuesday, shedding over 3 percent of its value against the dollar, as investors continued a sell-off of assets fueled by fears that Washington could impose more sanctions and a realization that Russian credit and market risks had substantially increased.
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Emmanuel Macron has blurred a line that has kept French government free of religious intervention for generations, critics said on Tuesday, after he called for stronger ties between the state and the Catholic Church.

The issue is particularly sensitive in historically Catholic France, where matters of faith and state were separated by law in 1905 and which is now home to Europe’s largest Muslim and Jewish communities.

The president’s remark might have raised fewer eyebrows had he left it until later in a one-hour speech on Monday night to Church dignitaries in Paris, where he began by saying that just arranging such a gathering was an achievement in itself.

“If we’ve done so, it must be because somewhere we share the feeling that the link between Church and State has been damaged, that the time has come for us, both you and me, to mend it,” he said.

Critics, many his natural political opponents, took the president to task.

“It took three centuries of civil war and struggle to get to where we are and there’s absolutely no reason to turn the clock back … because of an intellectual whim of the president’s,” said hardline leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon, a candidate in the election that brought Macron to power last May.

Former prime minister Manuel Valls and Socialist Party head Olivier Faure said the separation of church and state must remain a mainstay of political life, in a country where public service employees are banned from wearing Muslim veils and other dress with religious connotation.

Gay rights groups, who fought a bitter campaign against the Church over the introduction of same-sex marriage in 2013, were also critical.

The role of Islam

Raised in a non-religious family, Macron was baptized a Roman Catholic at his own request when he was 12. His government is now struggling to redefine the role of France’s second most popular religion, following a spate of attacks by Islamist militants that have killed around 240 people since early 2015.

Hardline Islam sits uneasily with France’s secular foundations, and Macron is under mounting pressure to address voter fears that its influence may spread via mosques and prisons that offer fertile ground for radical proselytizers.

Prime Minister Edouard Philippe responded in February by introducing prison isolation zones and more stringent licensing rules for faith-based schools.

France’s guiding principles also hold that religious observance is a private matter, for all faiths.

Catholic leaders present for Macron’s speech seemed less persuaded than his political detractors that might soon again be exerting influence on government.

Cardinal Georges Pontier, who met the president on Monday night, told CNews TV he read the remarks as nothing more than an invitation to more open dialogue.

“Some people imagine the Church wants to take power over people’s minds and more, but that’s not true,” he said.

This story was written by Reuters.
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British media report that Yulia Skripal, one of two Russians poisoned by nerve agent, has been released from the hospital.

BBC News said Tuesday the 33-year-old Skripal had been discharged from hospital and taken to a “secure” location on Monday.

Skripal was in critical condition after the March 4 nerve agent attack, apparently aimed at her father, Sergei Skripal. 

He remains hospitalized but officials say he is improving rapidly.

Britain has accused the Russian government of masterminding the attack on the Skripals.
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Voters in the oil-rich Caspian Sea nation of Azerbaijan are set to cast ballots in a snap presidential election Wednesday that is all but certain to extend the rule of the country’s long-serving leader by another seven years.

President Ilham Aliyev is expected to win the vote by a landslide. Leading opposition parties boycotted the race, leaving seven token challengers. Opinion surveys have put support for the incumbent at over 80 percent.

Aliyev, 56, has led Azerbaijan since 2003. He succeeded his father, Geidar Aliyev, who ruled Azerbaijan first as Communist Party boss and then as a post-Soviet president for the greater part of three decades.

Like his father before him, the son has cast himself as a custodian of stability, an image that resonates with many in a nation where memories of the chaos and turmoil that accompanied the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union are still fresh.

Since Aliyev won the last election in 2013 with 85 percent of the vote, Azerbaijan’s Constitution has been amended to extend the presidential term from five to seven years. Aliyev’s critics denounced the 2016 plebiscite as effectively cementing a dynastic rule.

The presidential election that had been due in the fall was moved up to April. Officials said the move was made because the country would be busy with various high-profile events at the end of 2018.

Aliyev has allied the majority Shia Muslim nation of almost 10 million with the West, helping to protect its energy and security interests and to counterbalance Russia’s influence in the strategic Caspian region.

Critics

At the same time, his government has long faced criticism in the West for alleged human rights abuses and suppression of dissent.

The opposition has denounced the election as lacking a viable challenger. Most of the seven candidates seeking to unseat Aliyev ran for president in the past but never pulled in more than 2 percent of the vote.

“We will urge the people to resist that game being played by the authorities,” said Jamil Hasanli, the head of the National Council of Democratic Forces of Azerbaijan, a leading opposition movement.

However, Aliyev’s critics have a limited following in Azerbaijan; only a few thousand people attended recent opposition rallies.

‘Political stability’

The public indifference stems from Azerbaijan’s relative stability under Aliyev, who has used the nation’s oil riches to transform the once-gritty capital, Baku, into a shining metropolis. Some of the oil wealth has trickled down to reach even the poorest residents, helping secure Aliyev’s rule.

“People want to see the preservation of political stability, the deepening of economic reforms and an even more active fight against corruption,” Elkhan Sahinoglu, head of the independent Atlas Research Center in Baku, said.

He added that Aliyev has dismissed some of the worst government ministers and the public hopes he will continue getting rid of corrupt officials.

“Social problems, including low wages, remain, but most people think that political stability is the most important thing,” Sahinoglu said.

Samir Aliyev, a Baku-based independent economic expert who is not related to the president, said that while the opposition boycott may affect turnout, most voters focus on economic and social issues and don’t pay much attention to the opposition.

“People are mostly worried about their material situation, wages and inflation,” he said.
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Hungary’s Central European University, an international school embroiled in a conflict with the government of Prime Minister Viktor Orban, said Monday it had signed an agreement with the City of Vienna to open a new satellite campus there.

CEU has found itself in the eye of a political storm since last year, when Hungary passed a law setting tougher conditions for the awarding of licenses to foreign universities.

Critics said the law would hurt academic freedom and was especially aimed at CEU, founded by Hungarian-born George Soros after the collapse of Communism and considered a bastion of independent scholarship in the region.

The new law stipulated that CEU must open a branch in its “home state” of New York alongside its campus in Budapest and secure a bilateral agreement of support from the U.S. government.

The university has since set up a U.S. site at Bard College in New York State.

Orban’s ruling Fidesz party, which won Sunday’s election with a landslide, vilified Soros in a fierce anti-immigrant election campaign that helped the 54-year-old premier win a third successive term in power.

CEU said last month it was in talks with Vienna about a memorandum of understanding that would enable it to open a satellite campus there, complementing its Budapest campus and its U.S. site.

“CEU has signed an MoU with the City of Vienna and looks forward to working with city representatives to open a satellite campus there. We consider Bard College in New York a first satellite campus and Vienna would be a second satellite campus,” said CEU International Media Relations Manager Colleen Sharkey.

CEU is still waiting for its agreement with New York to be signed by the Hungarian government, prolonging a period of uncertainty over the Budapest operation.

“As we have said repeatedly, Budapest is our home and this is where we want to stay. We have no reason to believe that the Hungarian government would not sign the agreement … but we are still waiting for the signature to bring the lexCEU issue to a close,” Sharkey added. She said the Vienna campus would be functioning from the autumn of 2019.

The government has said it did not want to close down CEU and only wanted to ensure all universities are governed by the same rules.

Orban has been locked in a series of running battles with the EU, where Western states and the Brussels-based executive Commission decry what they see as his authoritarian leanings, the squeezing of the opposition and the free media.

The crackdown on CEU triggered mass protests in Budapest last year, and the European Commission took Hungary to court over the legislation targeting the university.
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Russia said Monday it will support companies hit by fresh U.S. sanctions as Russian stocks dropped and shares in aluminum producer Rusal plummeted.

Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said in comments reported by state news agencies that Russia is prepared to back the companies if their positions worsen.

“We have a very attentive approach to our leading companies. They mean thousands of employees and very important jobs for our country,” he was quoted as saying by the TASS agency.

Shares in Rusal, which is controlled by billionaire businessman Oleg Deripaska, plunged just over 50 percent on the Hong Kong stock exchange Monday.

Rusal said the sanctions “may result in technical defaults in relation to certain credit obligations.”

“The company’s initial assessment is that it is highly likely that the impact may be materially adverse to the business and prospects of the group,” Rusal said in a statement.

Deripaska controls a business empire with assets in aluminum, energy and construction. He has figured in Russian election-meddling investigations in the U.S. due to his ties to former Donald Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort, who once worked as his consultant. The 55-year-old Deripaska is worth $5.3 billion, according to Forbes magazine.

On the Moscow stock exchange, the flagship MOEX index traded down over 6.5 percent as of early Monday afternoon, having partially recovered from a steeper slump which took the index down almost 10 percent. Metals companies were among the main losers.

The euro traded above 73 rubles for the first time since September 2016, while the dollar neared the 60-ruble mark.

The U.S. Treasury Department on Friday announced sanctions against seven leading Russian businessmen, 17 officials and a dozen Russian companies.

Besides Deripaska, targets included Alexei Miller, the head of state natural gas giant Gazprom, and Andrey Kostin, the head of the state-controlled VTB Bank, which is Russia’s second-largest.

There was also a place on the list for Kirill Shamalov, who is reportedly Putin’s son-in-law, married to his daughter Katerina Tikhonova, although neither Putin nor the Kremlin have acknowledged that she is his daughter. In 2014, Shamalov acquired a large share of Russian petrochemical company Sibur, later selling most of his stake for an undisclosed sum.
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Syria and Russia say two Israeli war planes operating in Lebanese air space carried out an attack early Monday on an air base in central Syria.

Israel’s military did not comment on the strikes against the T4 base in Homs province. 

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said 14 people were killed, including Iranian forces.

In February, Israel accused Iranian forces of using the same site to send a drone to Israeli territory. It responded by attacking Syrian air defense and Iranian military targets within Syria, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged to “continue to harm anyone who tries to harm us.”

Initial Syrian state media reports Monday blamed the United States, which along with France denied responsibility.

“However, we continue to closely watch the situation and support the ongoing diplomatic efforts to hold those who use chemical weapons, in Syria and otherwise, accountable,” Pentagon spokesman Christopher Sherwood said in a statement.

Syria has repeatedly denied using chemical weapons throughout the conflict that began in 2011, including the most recent suspected chemical attack Saturday in a rebel-held suburb of Damascus that killed at least 40 people.

Late Sunday, the White House said President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron strongly condemned chemical attacks in Syria and agreed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government “must be held accountable for its continued human rights abuses.”

“They agreed to exchange information on the nature of the attacks and coordinate a strong, joint response,” the White House said about a phone call between the two leaders.

Macron’s office added that the two sides “exchanged information and analysis confirming the use of chemical weapons.”

Trump used Twitter earlier Sunday to say there would be a “big price to pay” for what he called the “mindless chemical attack” Saturday.

In a rare direct condemnation of Russia’s leader, Trump declared, “President Putin, Russia and Iran are responsible” for their support of “Animal Assad.”

He further called for Syria to open the area of the alleged chemical attack to allow in verification and medical teams.

The Russian foreign ministry rejected claims of a chemical attack, saying, “The spread of bogus stories about the use of chlorine and other poisonous substances by (Syrian) government forces continues.

“We have warned several times recently against such dangerous provocations,” the Moscow statement said. “The aim of such deceitful speculation, lacking any kind of grounding, is to shield terrorists and to attempt to justify possible external uses of force.”

Iran said U.S. claims about the attack were aimed at justifying new American military action. A year ago, after an earlier chemical weapons attack by Syria, Trump launched 59 Tomahawk missiles into Syria, targeting the military base that was home to the warplanes that carried out the attack. 

Trump did not say how the U.S. might respond to Saturday’s suspected chemical attack. But Homeland Security and counterterrorism adviser Thomas Bossert told ABC News, “I wouldn’t take anything off the table.”

The United Nations Security Council will meet Monday about the alleged attack, after nine countries demanded an urgent session. The European Union said “evidence points toward yet another chemical attack” by the Syrian regime.

Trump also said that if his predecessor, former President Barack Obama, “had crossed his stated Red Line In The Sand,” to hold Assad accountable for previous chemical attacks, “the Syrian disaster would have ended long ago! Animal Assad would have been history!”

Trump’s rebuke of Putin was unusual. 

The U.S. leader has been reluctant during his nearly 15-month presidency to accept the conclusion of the U.S. intelligence community that Putin directed a 2016 campaign to meddle in the U.S. presidential election to help Trump win. U.S. special counsel Robert Mueller has been conducting a wide-ranging criminal investigation of the Trump campaign’s links to Russia, but Trump has repeatedly rejected the notion there was any collusion with Russia.

The alleged chemical attack occurred late Saturday amid new attacks on the last rebel enclave in eastern Ghouta.

First responders said they discovered families suffocated in their homes and shelters with foam on their mouths. Relief workers said more than 500 people, mostly women and children, were brought to medical centers with difficulty breathing, foaming at the mouth and their eyes burning.

The Civil Defense and Syrian American Medical Society said patients gave off a chlorine-like smell, and some had blue skin, an indication of oxygen deprivation.

“Dropping poison gas in a way that attacks women and children down in the shelters is a way to try to panic the civilians into leaving and cut the ground underneath the rebels,” University of Pennsylvania political science professor Ian Lustick told VOA.

Trump’s rebuff of Putin and Iran, which has forces in Syria, came as Syrian state television said Sunday an agreement has been reached for rebels to leave Douma, their last stronghold near Damascus.

The accord calls for the Jaish al-Islam fighters to release all prisoners they were holding in exchange for passage within 48 hours to the opposition-held town of Jarablus in northern Syria near the Turkish border. Russia said last week that Jaish al-Islam accepted a deal to leave Ghouta, which houses tens of thousands of people. However, the evacuations stalled over reports that the rebel group remained divided over the withdrawal. 

The pact was reached just hours after the suspected chemical attack.
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