Month: May 2019

The final preparatory meeting for next year’s review of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty ended Friday with deep divisions, and U.S. Ambassador Robert Wood said reaching agreement at the 2020 conference “will be an incredibly difficult task.”

But he told the closing session of the two-week preparatory conference that “it is a task we cannot abandon.”

The NPT is the world’s single most important pact on nuclear arms, credited with preventing their spread to dozens of nations since entering into force in 1970.

It has succeeded in doing this via a grand global bargain: Nations without nuclear weapons committed not to acquire them; those with them committed to move toward their elimination; and all endorsed everyone’s right to develop peaceful nuclear energy.

‘Significant challenges’

Treaty members — every nation but India, Pakistan and North Korea, who possess nuclear weapons, and Israel, which is believed to be a nuclear power but has never acknowledged it — gather every five years to review how it’s working. They try to agree on new approaches to problems, not by updating the treaty, which is difficult, but by trying to adopt a consensus final document calling for steps outside the treaty to advance its goals.

Malaysia’s U.N. Ambassador Syed Mohd Hasrin Tengku Hussin, chair of the third preparatory conference, told a news conference Friday that delegates “do not agree on everything but remain committed to full implementation” of the NPT, and talked about “how to accelerate measures to a nuclear-free world.”

Citing “significant challenges,” he noted that the meeting took place “at a time of increasing international tension and deteriorating relationships between those countries that possess nuclear weapons” — the U.S., Russia, China, Britain and France.

Hussin also singled out differences between nuclear weapon and non-nuclear weapon states on disarmament.

Iran ‘completely frustrated’

Iranian delegate Bahram Shahaboddin said in a closing statement that non-nuclear weapon states “are completely frustrated by the 50-year lack of progress on nuclear disarmament,” and continuing delaying tactics by the nuclear powers.

“We must not allow this to happen again. In 2020, we must say loud and clear enough is enough,” he said, singling out the United States for spending $1.2 trillion on its nuclear arsenal and “brazenly” threatening non-nuclear weapon states with nuclear weapons.

Hussin said delegates did agree on the agenda, procedures and president of the review conference — Argentina’s Ambassador to Austria Rafael Grossi — so in 2020 they can concentrate on substance.

Delegates to the preparatory conference rejected two sets of recommendations for the review conference so Hussin issued a final document called “reflections of the chair.”

It says “there remain many more points of convergence in the views of states parties than there are divergences.”

He stressed that “continued geopolitical challenges” underline the need to maintain the NPT as the cornerstone of nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation.

But he said: “There remain differing views on the implementation of the disarmament pillar, and these views need to be reconciled for there to be considered a balance as a whole” with the other pillars on nonproliferation and nuclear energy.

Rebecca Johnson, a security analyst and founding president of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons which won the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize, said: “The real questions for 2020 are going to be about the nuclear risks and treaties under threat from a few narcissistic leaders who are pulling out of them in order to keep proliferating and deploying nuclear weapons.”

“Their dangerous actions undermine not only the NPT … which we need to protect humanity from nuclear war, but climate catastrophes that threaten security for all of us,” she told AP.
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The shake-of-the-hands in front of the media on a blustery, wet spring morning in central London outside the official residence of British Foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt was friendly. America’s secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, and Hunt joked about the weather.

Pompeo, on his first official visit to London as U.S. Secretary of State, had come to reaffirm the “special relationship” between Britain and the U.S., he said. “The special relationship does not simply endure, it is thriving,” Pompeo announced at a news conference midweek following meetings with British counterpart Hunt and British Prime Minister Theresa May.

But for all the bonhomie, and later, at a research organization event, banter about how the first-born son of Prince Harry and his American bride Meghan Markle is the latest example of Anglo-American cooperation, Pompeo’s trip was anything but routine. The visit exposed strains in a relationship that is being buffeted by sharp disagreements over policy toward Iran and Britain’s dealings with China.

China’s Huawei

America’s top diplomat delivered a blunt public warning in London about doing business with China and specifically about using the technology of Chinese telecom giant Huawei to develop Britain’s fifth-generation (5G) wireless network. He urged Britain to rethink its provisional decision to allow Huawei to have a role in building the network, warning that China wants “to divide Western alliances through bits and bytes, not bullets and bombs.”

U.S. officials fear Beijing will use Huawei, which ultimately is answerable to the Chinese government, to eavesdrop and to sweep up data passing through Britain’s 5G network. The prospect is alarming to U.S. security agencies. They fear Chinese spies will be able to penetrate American networks and even capture intelligence shared with Britain. 

Pompeo emphasized that if Britain uses Huawei’s pioneering technology for its 5G network, it would be putting at risk the longstanding intelligence-sharing arrangement it has with Washington — the rock on which the special relationship is built. 

“Insufficient security will impede the United States’ ability to share certain information within trusted networks. This is just what China wants — to divide western alliances,” Pompeo warned.

British politicians have reacted cautiously to the U.S. threat to curtail intelligence sharing, an unusually overt warning for an American diplomat to deliver on British soil. They say they think they can square the circle — have Huawei participate in the development of parts of the next generation mobile network but in a way that answers U.S. security objections.

Britain has said it is planning to allow the Chinese telecom giant to participate in a limited role in developing the 5G network. Officials talk about ensuring that Huawei’s participation is kept in non-core areas. The decision was made by Prime Minister May, over the objections of her security and defense chiefs.

On Thursday, in an interview with a Chinese media outlet, the country’s finance minister, Philip Hammond, downplayed U.S. worries, saying, “[Huawei] has responded very positively and confirmed that it is willing and able to address those concerns and ensure that those security defects are corrected for the future. So we’re very pleased about that.”

A former British foreign minister, and onetime chairman of the British parliament’s intelligence committee, Malcolm Rifkind, told Britain’s Sky News that disagreements between British and U.S. leaders aren’t unusual.

“There’s nothing new about that,” he said. “Margaret Thatcher had rows with Ronald Reagan, John Major with Bill Clinton. It is the normal situation between friends. Occasionally you disagree.”

He believes there’s a work-around, pointing out that Huawei has been highly involved in Britain’s current 4G network and its role is monitored by a team of British intelligence operatives “to make sure there’s no mischief.”

Deals with China

Monitoring, though, may not be enough to assuage U.S. worries, says a former senior counter-intelligence officer, who served in the agency’s clandestine service for 33 years and asked not to be named in this article. He says there’s increasing alarm in U.S. intelligence circles about Britain’s readiness to accommodate China, a rising power seen in Washington as determined to weaken Western alliances. 

“The Chinese don’t distinguish between commerce, politics and espionage — it is all the same for them,” he said. “The British are not on their guard enough, partly that’s because they’re desperate to get a major post-Brexit trade deal from Beijing and they don’t want to do anything that might wreck that from happening,” he added.

Britain is now the top European destination for direct investment from China, and some former and current U.S. intelligence officials worry the British are failing to scrutinize thoroughly business and infrastructure deals involving Chinese companies.

China is building nuclear power plants in Britain, and Chinese companies are being encouraged by the British government to bid for contracts to build and manage HS2, a high-speed railway that, when completed, will directly link London, Birmingham, the East Midlands, Leeds and Manchester. 

If Britain does give Huawei even a limited role in building its future 5G network, the fallout would be similar to a major spy scandal, the former counterintelligence officer said. “Think Kim Philby,” he said, citing the top British spy who was unmasked in 1963 as a double agent for Russia’s KGB spy agency and whose betrayal undermined American trust in British intelligence for decades. 

“Even if there’s no formal decision to curtail intelligence-sharing, the consequence will be felt all the way down the line. People at Langley and in other [intelligence] agencies will have doubts and will start withholding information by not uploading it to databases the British can access,” he added.

Britain is a key member of the so-called Five Eyes alliance, the U.S.-led Anglophone intelligence pact also linking Australia, Canada and New Zealand. Norman Roule, who was in the CIA’s Directorate of Operations for 34 years, and served as a division chief and chief of station, says “the U.S. intelligence relationship with the British is the closest on the planet.”

“We share so much information with each other, and it’s shared so deeply and immediately that if we have a difference of views, it’s usually because one of us hasn’t gotten around to seeing the other’s file yet,” he added. He says on the Huawei issue, the British security agencies “don’t have a different view than that of the United States.”

He predicts there were will be weeks of technical discussions.

“The devil will be in the details,” he said. “The question will be, ‘Can you take some of Huawei’s technology and put it in places where it doesn’t matter and still guarantee security?'” 
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France welcomed Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg on Friday with a threat of sweeping new regulation.

With Facebook under fire on multiple fronts, Zuckerberg is in Paris to show that his social media giant is working hard to limit violent extremism and hate speech shared online.

But a group of French regulators and experts who spent weeks inside Facebook facilities in Paris, Dublin and Barcelona say the company isn’t working hard enough.

Just before Zuckerberg met French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, the 10 officials released a report calling for laws allowing the government to investigate and fine social networks that don’t take responsibility for the content that makes them money.

The French government wants the legislation to serve as a model for Europe-wide management of social networks. Several countries have introduced similar legislation, some tougher than what France is proposing.

To an average user, it seems like the problem is intractable. Mass shootings are live-streamed, and online mobs are spreading rumors that lead to deadly violence. Facebook is even inadvertently creating celebratory videos using extremist content and auto-generating business pages for the likes of the Islamic State group and al Qaida.

The company says it is working on solutions, and the French regulators praised Facebook for hiring more people and using artificial intelligence to track and crack down on dangerous content.

But they said Facebook didn’t provide the French officials enough information about its algorithms to judge whether they were working, and that a “lack of transparency … justifies an intervention of public authorities.”

The regulators recommended legally requiring a “duty of care” for big social networks, meaning they should moderate hate speech published on their platforms. They insist that any law should respect freedom of expression, but did not explain how Facebook should balance those responsibilities in practice.

After meeting Macron, Zuckerberg said in a Facebook post that he welcomed governments taking a more active role in drawing up regulations for the internet. He made similar remarks earlier this year but has been vague on what kind of regulation he favors.

Facebook faces “nuanced decisions” involving content that is harmful but not illegal and the French recommendations, which set guidelines for what’s considered harmful, “would create a more consistent approach across the tech industry and ensure companies are held accountable for enforcing standards against this content,” Zuckerberg said.

The regulators acknowledged that their research didn’t address violent content shared on private chat groups or encrypted apps, or on groups like 4chan or 8chan, where criminals and extremists and those concerned about privacy increasingly turn to communicate.

Facebook said Zuckerberg is in France as part of meetings around Europe to discuss future regulation of the internet. Facebook agreed to embed the French regulators as an effort to jointly develop proposals to fight online hate content.

Zuckerberg’s visit comes notably amid concern about hate speech and disinformation around this month’s European Parliament elections.

Next week, the leaders of France and New Zealand will meet tech leaders in Paris for a summit seeking to ban acts of violent extremism and terrorism from being shown online.

Facebook has faced challenges over privacy and security lapses and accusations of endangering democracy — and it came under criticism this week from its own co-founder.

Chris Hughes said in a New York Times opinion piece Thursday that it’s time to break up Facebook. He says Zuckerberg has turned Facebook into an innovation-suffocating monopoly and lamented the company’s “slow response to Russian agents, violent rhetoric and fake news.”
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Leading Western industrial powers will for the first time jointly simulate a major cross-border cybersecurity attack on the financial sector next month, French officials said on Friday.

The exercise, organized by the French central bank under France’s presidency of the Group of Seven nations (G7), will be based on the scenario of a technical component widely used in the financial sector becoming infected with malware, said Nathalie Aufauvre, the Bank of France’s director general for financial stability.

Institutions such as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have already conducted such tests, but the June exercise will be the first across borders at the G7 level,

Aufauvre told a cybersecurity conference at the bank. “Cyber threats are proof that we need more multilateralism and more cooperation between our countries,” French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told the conference.

Aufauvre said the three-day exercise aimed to demonstrate the cross-border effects of such an attack, and would involve 24 financial authorities from the seven countries, comprising central banks, market authorities and finance ministries.

Representatives of the private sector in France, Italy Germany and Japan will also participate.

The financial sector is the most common target of cyberattacks, accounting for 19 percent of the total, according to a recent study by IBM.

Many countries have in recent years stepped up oversight of banks and insurers’ capacity to respond.

However, financial regulators in countries such as France and Germany say that requirements in some countries outside the G7 are less onerous, creating an incentive for firms to move operations there to cut costs.
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U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is set to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov next week, as the two countries clash over a number of issues including Venezuela, Iran and Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election.

Pompeo departs March 12 for Moscow, in his first visit to Russia as chief U.S. diplomat.

Top U.S. officials, including Pompeo and Vice President Mike Pence, have accused Russia of working against Venezuela’s democratically elected opposition leader Juan Guaido in his attempts to oust embattled President Nicolas Maduro.

The United States accuses Russia of seeking a foothold in the Western Hemisphere through Venezuela.

“We are concerned about Russia’s actions in Venezuela, and we think the support for Maduro is a losing bet. So our support to the Venezuelan people continues, and that will be a subject for the discussion,” a senior State Department official told reporters Friday.

Pompeo will arrive in Russia on May 13 to meet with American diplomats at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow before meeting with U.S. business leaders. He will also lay a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, in honor of those who fought against the Nazi regime.

The secretary of state will then travel to Sochi on March 14 for talks with Putin and Lavrov.

Pompeo’s trip comes a few weeks ahead of a G-20 summit meeting in Osaka, Japan, which both U.S. President Donald Trump and Putin will attend.

“It is in our interest to have a better relationship with Russia,” said the senior official. “When we have concerns, we’re going to raise them directly, narrow those differences and find areas we can cooperate.”

The official declined to comment on whether a meeting between Trump and Putin on the sidelines of the G-20 summit is being arranged.

Detained Americans

The State Department says Pompeo is expected to bring up Americans being detained in Russia, including former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan and Michael Calvey, founder of the Moscow-based Baring Vostok private equity group.

Whelan was accused of espionage, a charge he denies. He is due to be kept in pre-trial detention until May 28 while the investigation continues.

Calvey was detained in February, pending a trial on embezzlement charges that he has denied. He says the case was being used to pressure him in a corporate dispute over control of a Russian bank.

“The administration places the highest priority on the safety and the welfare of U.S. citizens overseas. We stand ready to provide all appropriate consular services in cases where U.S. citizens are detained,” said the senior official.

On April 30, U.S. Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman visited Whelan in a Moscow jail. American diplomats have asked Russia to “stop playing games,” saying Russian officials are likely trying to get a forced false “confession” from Whelan.

​Tension over Iran

Pompeo’s trip to Russia also comes as tensions simmer between the two countries over Iran.

The U.S. is strengthening its military presence in the Middle East in what officials said was a “direct response to a number of troubling and escalatory indicators and warnings” from Iran.

The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group and four B-52 bombers have arrived in the Middle East in response to concerns Iran may be planning an attack against American targets.

Wednesday, Lavrov asked Pompeo to use diplomacy instead of threats to solve issues after Lavrov’s talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Moscow.
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Britain’s young royals, brothers Prince William and Prince Harry and their wives Kate and Meghan, launched a new phone messaging service Friday to help people suffering a mental health crisis.

The two princes have been widely praised for speaking out about their own struggles with mental health in the wake of the death of their mother, Princess Diana, in a 1997 car crash and have made the issue one of their main charitable causes.

Shout

The new text messaging service, called “Shout,” aims to provide 24/7 support for people suffering from crises such as suicidal thoughts, abuse, relationship problems and bullying by connecting them to trained volunteers and helping them find longer-term support.

“We are incredibly excited to be launching this service, knowing it has the potential to reach thousands of vulnerable people every day,” the four royals said in a statement. “We have all been able to see the service working up close and are so excited for its future. We hope that many more of you will join us and be part of something very special.”

The service is particularly aimed at younger people and using text messaging means it is silent and private, allowing people to use it at school, on a bus or at home, the organizers said. 

Appeal for volunteers

As part of the launch, William appears in a video appealing for people to come forward as the service seeks to expand from 1,000 to 4,000 volunteers.

The initiative is one of the first to involve the quartet of royals who are joint patrons of the Royal Foundation, their primary vehicle for helping charities and good causes and which is supporting the Shout scheme.

It comes after the British media has been rife with speculation of a rift between the brothers and their wives, although there has been no public indication of any disagreements.

On Monday, Meghan, 37, and Harry, 34, celebrated the birth of their first child Archie, with William, 36, and Kate, 37, saying they were absolutely thrilled at the news.
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The European Union’s 28 countries consume the Earth’s resources faster than they can be renewed and none of them has sustainable consumption policies, a report released Thursday said, as EU leaders met to discuss priorities for the next five years.

“All EU countries are living beyond the means of our planet. The EU and its citizens are currently using twice more than the EU ecosystems can renew,”  the report  by the World Wide Fund (WWF) and Global Footprint Network said.

It was issued as leaders met in the Romanian city of Sibiu to set the course for the bloc after Britain’s planned departure from the EU.

Climate change key priority

French President Emmanuel Macron said before the summit that climate change was among his key priorities and it was included in the bloc’s 10 “commitments” for the future until 2024, agreed by all the 27 leaders meeting in Sibiu.

But the bloc is divided on how to achieve any ambitious climate goals and it remains far from clear how the Sibiu declaration would be implemented.

Some 100 Greenpeace activists and students from several European countries marched through Sibiu carrying a huge banner saying “Broken Climate Broken Future.”

“We cannot talk about a prosperous future without a healthy climate,” Greenpeace climate activist Alin Tanase told Reuters.

Views on concrete action to be taken to combat climate change differ between EU countries, influenced greatly by their dominant industries, such as carmakers in Germany or the coal industry in Poland.

Tusk sensitive to climate change

The chairman of the summit, President of the European Council Donald Tusk, said there was no future for politicians who were not sensitive to climate change and environment protection issues.

“The young generation is much more united on this than the member states. The truth is that nothing has changed when it comes to this divide and different opinions about this. What is new is this very fresh and energetic pressure,” he told a news conference after the summit.

Climate protection and sustainable development is also an important topic in the election campaign for the May 23-26 European Parliament elections, which will influence the leadership of European institutions and their programs.

The European Commission has been pushing for the EU to become climate neutral by 2050 through reducing carbon emissions that will otherwise boost the Earth’s average temperatures with devastating consequences.

“The EU uses up almost 20 percent of the Earth’s bio-capacity although it comprises only 7 percent of the world population,” the WWF report said.

“In other words, 2.8 planets would be needed if everyone consumed at the rate of the average EU resident,” it said.

Luxembourg smallest but fastest

It said the EU’s smallest and richest country, Luxembourg, was also the one which used up renewable resources the fastest last year. Just 46 days into the year, it had consumed its full share of the Earth’s resources, it said.

The EU’s poorest nation, Romania, took the longest to arrive at that point, on July 12th. But that was still earlier than the world’s average of Aug. 1, called Earth overshoot day.
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Russia on May 9 marked one of its most important holidays, Victory Day over Nazi Germany in World War II. The Soviet Union – which included Russia – suffered the biggest losses with 26 million Soviet citizens killed in the conflict. At V-Day commemorations, victims are honored and the military presents a display meant show enemies its strength. Many also recall the time Russia and the United States fought on the same side against a common enemy. In Moscow, VOA’s Igor Tsikhanenka caught up with one Soviet World War II veteran who recalls that time very well.
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It’s a little-known fact that Sweden was the first western country to recognize the government of Vietnam, in 1969, at a time when many states were wary of ruffling the feathers of their ally, the United States, which was fighting a war in the Southeast Asian country.

Sweden went on to become the biggest foreign donor in Vietnam, which faced international isolation in the 1980s leading up to the 1990s, when Washington lifted its economic embargo on Hanoi.

Now Stockholm and Hanoi are marking their 50 year anniversary with what they call a shift from aid to trade. Vietnam sees some potential pointers from Sweden, a small country with social democratic policies that is home to many companies people may not realize have Swedish roots: Skype, Spotify, and Ericsson, as well as Ikea, Volvo, and H&M.

Sustainable trade

The Crown Princess of Sweden, Victoria Ingrid Alice Desiree, brought a delegation to Hanoi this week to try some Vietnamese bun bo noodles and conical hats, as well as to promote commerce that is good for the environment.

“I would like to stress that sustainability and trade are not mutually exclusive,” the crown princess said, adding that, on the contrary, sustainable trade is the only option going forward.

That is in contrast to global trade after the first industrial revolution, when businesses did not mind burning fossil fuels and filling garbage dumps — known in economics as a classic externality, because the culprit does not suffer the direct impact of its pollution.

A different Kind of industrialization

As Vietnam industrializes, some hope it will do things differently from the west’s old polluting industries. It can join the “circular economy” that wastes fewer raw inputs, with more emphasis on putting materials back into the business process.

Swedish firms have been looking for ways to clean up their act. H&M, for example, allows shoppers to bring back clothes for recycling, although that can give them an excuse to consume even more new products.

The fashion retailer also aims to source from factories that treat and reuse wastewater. Ikea will ban single-use plastic from its stores by next year and find new uses for plastic so that it doesn’t end up in the ocean. The plastic efforts are an example of areas where big corporations may have a bigger impact than the individuals who have stopped using plastic straws and plastic bags to do their part.

A Swedish model

Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister Pham Binh Minh said Sweden was a small country that turned to foreign trade and industrialized responsibly.

“That is a lesson Vietnam wants to learn from Sweden,” he said.

Relations between the two countries used to be underpinned by Sweden’s official aid money to Vietnam, money that went toward common goals like gender equality. The Swedish crown princess, for example, is next in line to the throne because her country revised a law that had restricted royal succession to males. In Vietnam, Sweden has supported equality programs in areas from agriculture, such as training female farmers to market their products, to Wikipedia, where there are more biographies of men than of women.

Business partners

But today the focus is changing from development assistance to business development. Instead of getting aid from Sweden, Vietnam is getting investment, whether it’s Spotify launching its music streaming app in the communist country in 2018, or Electrolux selling air conditioners and washing machines to the emerging middle class.

The change is also indicative of broader trends in Vietnam, generally shifting from cash assistance from foreign countries, to doing business with them. Among Vietnam’s many new trade deals is the European Union-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement, which Swedish officials also touted on their visit this week to increase cross-border commerce.

Such commerce, including more technology investment, could help Vietnam move up from lower middle income status.

“How to escape the middle income trap in a rapidly changing global economy,” Fulbright scholar Vu Thanh Tu Anh told an audience of Vietnamese and Swedish businesses this week. “That is our objective.”

 
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Turkey’s surprise move to allow Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), to meet with his lawyers after an eight-year hiatus is spurring speculation of a shift in Ankara’s hard-line policy following the 2015 collapse in peace talks with the rebel group.

A nationwide hunger strike calling for an end to Ocalan’s isolation spurred Turkish authorities to allow his lawyers a visit at Imrali Island prison where the 70-year-old Kurdish leader is being held.

“The lawyers were informed they could meet Ocalan on the day of the announcement of a death fast [hunger strike leading to death], which involves at least 2 or 3,000, which has put the government in a difficult position,” said Ertugrul Kurkcu, honorary president of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP).

In a statement, Ocalan called on his supporters not to engage in activities that could harm them. What drew the most attention, however, was the rebel leader’s call to Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) that “Turkish sensitivity should be taken into consideration.”

Turkey on the border 

Turkish forces are currently amassed on the Syrian border facing off against the SDF. Ankara accuses the People Protection Units (YPG), which makes up a large part of the SDF, of being a terrorist organization linked to the PKK. The PKK has waged a decades-long insurgency inside Turkey.

“I think he is showing the YPG the limits they should remain within in the Syrian context and not bother the Turkish government,” said Kurkcu. “He [Ocalan] seeks to finalize the situation without any losses of Syrian Kurdish population because Turkey is looking for an opportunity to intervene.”

Washington has been lobbying hard to prevent a Turkish intervention because the YPG is a crucial ally in its war against Islamic State. U.S. Special Representative for Syria, James Jeffrey, visited Ankara earlier this month for high-level talks to broker a solution.

“We know James Jeffrey, the former U.S. ambassador to Ankara, is already the go-between to find the middle ground between the Ankara regime and the Kurdish political movement, be it in Turkey or Syria,” said political scientist Cengiz Aktar.

“So, the Ocalan lawyers’ visit could be a proposal by him, because Ocalan is considered the symbolic leader of the YPG. We know from the Kurdish authorities in Syria that James Jeffrey was active to establish an indirect dialogue between Ankara and [YPG leader] Mazlum Kobane,” Aktar added.

Ocalan’s influence

Former senior Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen, who founded Turkey’s consul in the Iraqi Kurdistan regional capital, Irbil, said the significance of Ocalan’s statement should not be overestimated.

“Will it change anything on the ground? I am not sure, because on the ground, even the relationship between Qandil [PKK Iraqi headquarters] and the YPG commanders is quite opaque, not clear, let alone Ocalan’s influence,” he said. 

Selcen added, “What is the most interesting point is whether now there is some sort of coordination between the United States, the SDF, Ankara and Ocalan, and even perhaps between Qandil. That we shall see in the coming months.”

Reports of tentative communications between Ankara and the SDF, coupled with Ocalan’s lawyers’ meeting, is spurring speculation of a possible resumption of broader PKK peace talks. 

Turkish government members previously engaged in peace talks with Ocalan, which were accompanied by a PKK cease-fire and a partial withdrawal from Turkey.

The process collapsed in 2015 amid mutual recrimination. The resulting fighting claimed thousands of lives and the destruction of numerous town and city centers across Turkey’s predominately Kurdish region.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is ruling out a return to peace talks.

“There is no question of such a thing as the peace process,” he said Monday.

Erdogan’s AKP is in a coalition with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which is ardently opposed to any peace talks.

“It’s [the AKP-MHP coalition] a problem, but it is also an opportunity,” Selcen said. “It might mean Erdogan can change his coalition. It might mean he can opt for a new partner.”

Growing tensions?

Turkish media have been awash with reports of growing tensions between the AKP and MHP, which have been exacerbated by the political defeat in most of Turkey’s main cities, including Istanbul, during the local elections in March.

Kurkcu played down hopes of new peace talks.

“The present line of the PKK is devoted to changing the interlocutor, changing the negotiating partner, which they believe cannot be the AKP,” he said. “The credit the AKP had five to six or seven years ago has vanished in tyranny. The AKP doesn’t have the promise for any positive change in Turkey. It only offers dictatorship.”

Kurkcu confirmed that the HDP would again back Ekrem Imamoglu of the opposition CHP, who won the Istanbul mayoral election in March but is re-runningafter the AKP succeeded in having the vote annulled over claims of voting irregularities.
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Turkey’s main opposition party on Wednesday appealed to the country’s top electoral body to annul local election results in Istanbul’s 39 districts, as well as last year’s presidential and parliamentary results, after the authority annulled the opposition’s victory in Istanbul’s mayoral race and ordered a new vote.

Ruling in favor of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), Turkey’s Supreme Electoral Board this week ordered a re-run of the March 31 vote on Istanbul’s next mayor, which was narrowly won by opposition candidate Ekrem Imamoglu. The board based its decision on the fact that some officials overseeing the mayoral election were not civil servants, as required by law.

The ruling party claimed that such irregularities affected the outcome of the race.

In response, the main opposition Republican Peoples’ Party, or CHP, submitted a formal request for the cancellation of the Istanbul district elections and last year’s general elections, arguing that non-civil servants had also supervised those ballots.

CHP cannot appeal the electoral board’s decision to repeat Istanbul’s mayoral election, as that is final.

AKP won a majority of the Istanbul districts as well as last year’s general elections, which gave Erdogan a new mandate with sweeping powers.

“If you say that the local election was stained, then the same is valid for the June 24 [2018] elections,” CHP legislator Muharrem Erkek told reporters after submitting the appeal. “Ten thousand people who were not civil servants were on duty for the June 24 election.”

“If you cancel Mr. Imamoglu’s mandate, then you have to cancel Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s mandate too,” Erkek said, addressing the electoral board members.

He added there was no evidence proving that the presence of non-civil servants at the ballot stations had affected the outcome of the Istanbul vote.

Even though the Supreme Electoral board is not expected to uphold the opposition’s appeal, CHP sought to expose what it says is the decision’s unfairness.

CHP, which has questioned the electoral authority’s independence, believes that the board’s members had succumbed to pressure by Erdogan. The party has accused the president of “stealing” Istanbul city hall in order to cling to power in Turkey’s largest city and commercial hub.

“We don’t trust or believe [in the electoral body],” Erkek said. “This is a struggle for democracy. It is not about CHP or Imamoglu.”

The electoral authority issued a statement on Wednesday saying it would continue working “without being affected by the campaigns of pressure, intimidation, insult and threats” directed against it.

The loss of Istanbul — and the capital, Ankara — in Turkey’s local elections came as sharp blows to Erdogan.

Erdogan says rerunning the Istanbul mayoral vote will strengthen democracy in Turkey by ensuring that the will of the people of Istanbul is truly reflected.
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Obesity worldwide is increasing more quickly in rural areas than in cities, a study reported Wednesday, challenging a long-held assumption that the global epidemic of excess weight is mainly an urban problem.

Data covering 200 countries and territories compiled by more than 1,000 researchers showed an average gain of roughly five to six kilos per woman and man living in the countryside from 1985 to 2017.

City-dwelling women and men, however, put on 38 and 24 percent less, respectively, than their rural counterparts over the same period, according to the findings, published in Nature.

“The results of this massive global study overturn commonly held perceptions that more people living in cities is the main cause of the global rise in obesity,” said senior author Majid Ezzati, a professor at Imperial College London’s School of Public Health.

“This means that we need to rethink how we tackle this global health problem.”

The main exception to the trend was sub-Saharan Africa, where women gained weight more rapidly in cities.

Obesity has emerged as a global health epidemic, driving rising rates of heart disease, stroke, diabetes and a host of cancers.

The annual cost of treating related health impacts could top a trillion dollars by 2025, the World Obesity Federation estimated in 2017.

To date, most national and international policies to curb excess body weight have focused on cities, including public messaging, the redesign of urban spaces to encourage walking, and subsidized sports facilities.

Body-mass index

To factor health status into the comparison across nations, the researchers used a standard measure known as the “body-mass index”, or BMI, based on height and weight.

A person with a BMI of 25 or more is considered overweight, while 30 or higher is obese. A healthy BMI ranges from 18.5 to 24.9.

Approximately two billion adults in the world are overweight, nearly a third of them obese. The number of obese people has tripled since 1975.

The study revealed important differences between countries depending on income level.

In high-income nations, for example, the study found that rural BMI were generally already higher in 1985, especially for women.

Lower income and education levels, the high cost and limited availability of healthy foods, dependence on vehicles, the phasing out of manual labour — all of these factors likely contributed to progressive weight gain.

Conversely, urban areas “provide a wealth of opportunities for better nutrition, more physical exercise and recreation, and overall improved health,” Ezzati said.

Around 55 percent of the world’s population live in cities or satellite communities, with that figure set to rise to 68 percent by mid-century, according to the United Nations.

‘Ultra-processed foods’

The most urbanized regions in the world are North America (82 percent), Latin America and the Caribbean (81 percent) and Europe (74 percent).

More recently, the proportion of overweight and obese adults in the rural parts of many low- and middle-income countries is also rising more quickly than in cites.

“Rural areas in these countries have begun to resemble urban areas,” Barry Popkin, an expert on global public health at the University of North Carolina, said in a comment, also in Nature.

“Modern food supply is now available in combination with cheap mechanized devices for farming and transport,” he added. “Ultra-processed foods are also becoming part of the diets of poor people.”

At a country level, several findings stand out.

Some of the largest BMI increases from 1985 to 2017 among men were in China, the United States, Bahrain, Peru and the Dominican Republic, adding an average of 8-9 kilos per adult.

Women in Egypt and Honduras added — on average, across urban and rural areas — even more.

Rural women in Bangladesh, and men living in rural Ethiopia, had the lowest average BMI in 1985, at 17.7 and 18.4 respectively, just under the threshold of healthy weight. Both cohorts were well above that threshold by 2017.

The populations — both men and women — in small South Pacific island nations have among the highest BMI levels in the world, often well above 30.

“The NDC Risk Factor Collaboration challenges us to create programmes and policies that are rurally focused to prevent weight gain”, Popkin said.
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Britain is eager to negotiate trade deals with the United States and China to compensate for leaving the European Union, by far the country’s largest trading partner, but it is already discovering the snag of balancing geo-political requests of its traditional ally with the ambitions of Beijing, say analysts and diplomats. 

Beijing hopes a trade deal will not only make Britain a secure base for Chinese companies looking to enhance their global brand value and make new acquisitions, but will lead to the British becoming advocates within the West for China’s interests, say China-watchers. 

Beijing has “high hopes of the UK acting as a cheerleader for China’s global ambitions,” according to Yu Jie of Britain’s Chatham House. But cheerleading for China will come at the expense of its traditional alliance with the United States.

Lure of Huawei 

The transatlantic spat over whether Britain should allow the Chinese technology giant Huawei to build parts of Britain’s fifth-generation (5G) mobile network is a preview of Britain’s post-Brexit dilemma. 

Chinese technology and investment already looks alluring enough for a Britain desperate to fashion post-Brexit trade deals to disregard U.S. security alarm over Huawei and to place short-term commercial gain ahead of its established diplomatic relations with the United States. 

Washington fears the Chinese telecoms giant will act as a Trojan horse for China’s espionage agencies, allowing them to sweep up data and gather intelligence, compromising not only Britain’s security, but also America’s, say U.S. officials. 

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reiterated Washington’s alarm in meetings Wednesday with Prime Minister Theresa May and British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt in London. Pompeo has warned Western allies to shun Huawei or risk losing intelligence-sharing arrangements with Washington. U.S. officials say a failure to reverse the decision will harm Britain’s much vaunted special relationship with America.

The United States has blocked Huawei from government communication systems, but Washington has not yet banned Chinese telecommunications gear from civilian networks. That’s partly because some American carriers in rural areas already use Huawei equipment.

May provisionally gave the go-ahead last month for the Chinese tech giant’s involvement in developing the 5G network. She did so in the face of opposition from her security and foreign ministers, amid the dire U.S. warnings.

A White House official told VOA the issue will likely be raised during U.S. President Donald Trump’s state visit next month to Britain.

Australia and New Zealand have decided to block or heavily restrict using Huawei’s technology in developing their 5G networks.

Huawei denies being controlled by the Chinese government and says its equipment can’t be used for espionage.

British officials dismiss claims May’s decision was made in Britain’s search for post-Brexit trade deals. 

But critics say if Britain is going to strike a trade deal with China after leaving the European Union, Huawei will likely play a major role and London could ill-afford to offend Beijing by blocking the telecom giant. Huawei, one of China’s biggest exporters, has pledged to spend $4 billion on British products and services. 

The critics worry the Huawei decision is part of the pattern of a Chinese government that attaches political strings to commercial deals. 

‘Easy prey for Beijing’

A post-Brexit Britain will be “easy prey for Beijing,” fears Ed Lucas, a commentator for Britain’s The Times newspaper. He argues London will be in a position of weakness in negotiating bilateral trade deals and there is a high risk of a “hard-pressed and isolated Britain being bossed around by China’s Communist Party.”

“On most fronts, Britain is already quite prepared to grovel,” he said, pointing to the visit last month of Britain’s finance minister, Philip Hammond, to a conference in China. 

In Beijing, Hammond praised the “truly epic ambition” of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a massive trillion-dollar trade, investment and infrastructure program launched in 2015 to spur trade along land and sea routes linking Asia, Africa and Europe, that is prompting Western concern. The European Union last month dubbed China a “systemic rival.” 

Britain’s previous Conservative government also looked toward China for commercial deals. Hard-pressed from the fallout of the 2008 financial crash, it too was attracted by Chinese investment, and in 2013 became the first Western country to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

The move was condemned by the administration of then-U.S. President Barack Obama, with a senior U.S. official complaining to the London-based Financial Times about Britain’s failure to maintain a united front and its “constant accommodation” of China. 

As Britain re-thinks its place in the world, it appears to be hedging its bets when it comes to choosing between Washington and Beijing, says Jonathan Shaw, the former head of cybersecurity at Britain’s defense ministry, a critic of May’s Huawei decision. “We are facing a new technological Cold War between China and America, and America has asked us to choose,” he told a London radio program. 
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