Month: May 2019

Polls have opened in North Macedonia where voters will choose a new president in a runoff vote that will be watched as closely for turnout as it will be for either candidate.

More than 3,400 polling stations opened at 7 a.m. on May 5. 

Stevo Pendarovski and Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova face off in the balloting after a virtual draw — 42.8 percent to 42.2 percent respectively — in the first round on April 21.

That close outcome has put a spotlight on the Balkan nation’s ethnic Albanian minority, who strongly supported Blerim Reka in the first round, giving him 10.6 percent of the vote.

With Reka out of the runoff race, a lot will depend on whether his supporters even decide to cast ballots, and if so, for whom.

If fewer than 40 percent of the country’s 1.8 million eligible voters show up for the runoff, the election automatically becomes invalid.

About one-quarter of the population is ethnic Albanian, and overall turnout in the first round was just 41.8 percent.

“I am calling on all of our citizens to go to the polls and vote by your own choice, but vote for the future of our country and of our children,” Prime Minister Zoran Zaev urged Macedonians in a video address.

Low-key campaign

The campaign itself has been rather low-key by Macedonian standards, with virtually none of the violence, dirty tricks, and sharp nationalist rhetoric that has marked previous votes.

While the president has a largely ceremonial role, the position does have some powers to veto legislation and Zaev has warned that the outcome of the runoff could trigger early parliamentary elections.

The race itself between the two academics has been dominated by debate on issues such as integration into Western structures and a struggling economy, plagued by stubbornly high unemployment at more than 20 percent.

Pendarovski, a 55-year-old former political-science professor, has strongly supported the so-called Prespa deal signed with Greece last year to change the country’s name, while Siljanovska-Davkova, the country’s first female candidate and a university professor, has been critical of it, though the opposition has said it will not cancel the accord.

The signing of the historic agreement with Greece changed the country’s name to North Macedonia and ended a decades-long dispute that had blocked the Balkan state’s path to NATO and the European Union.

Pro-Western Pendarovski is supported by the ruling Social Democrats. Siljanovska-Davkova, 63, ran as an independent but is now backed by the main conservative opposition VMRO-DPMNE party.

If turnout fails to reach the minimum requirement, constitutional experts say a completely new vote must be called within 40 days.

During the interim period, the head of the National Assembly, Talat Xhaferi, would assume the function of president.

Outgoing President Gjorge Ivanov was constitutionally barred from running for a third consecutive five-year term.

Once a part of Yugoslavia, North Macedonia left Belgrade’s umbrella when it seceded peacefully in 1991.

But it veered close to civil war in 2001 when ethnic Albanians launched an armed insurgency seeking greater autonomy, and subsequent elections have been stormy.

Polling stations will remain open until 7 p.m. local time.
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British Prime Minister Theresa May says her Conservative government and the opposition Labour Party have a duty to strike a compromise Brexit agreement to end months of political deadlock over Britain’s exit from the European Union.

Writing in the Mail on Sunday, May told Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn: “Let’s do a deal.”

She said a cross-party compromise was not her first choice, but “we have to find a way to break the deadlock.”

The Conservatives are desperate to move forward after losing hundreds of positions in last week’s local elections. Labour also suffered losses as voters punished both main parties for the Brexit impasse.

But the prospect of the government compromising and accepting Labour’s demand for close economic ties with the EU has infuriated pro-Brexit Conservatives, who are demanding May’s resignation.
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Anti-government protesters marched in France for a 25th straight week Saturday but in significantly smaller numbers than during the yellow vest movement’s first months or for a May Day rally that attracted tens of thousands of participants.

Several dozen people demonstrated at Paris’ Charles de Gaulle Airport to denounce privatization plans. Protests were also held in Paris and other cities around France, including Nice, Marseille and Lyon, where environmentalists and yellow vest protesters joined forces. 

The Interior Ministry counted a total of 2,600 participants at three events in Paris and 18,900 in all of France, a low for Saturday protest marches, according to French media reports. 

Security was visibly lighter than on Wednesday, when French officials deployed 7,400 officers from around the country to police the annual May Day march organized by labor unions.

During that march, clusters of protesters wearing masks and hoods set trash bin fires, vandalized property and threw rocks at riot police, who responded with tear gas, rubber projectiles and stun grenades.

The leaderless yellow vest movement sprang up in mid-November with workers who rely on their cars camping out at traffic circles to protest a hike in fuel taxes. They wore the high-visibility vests all French drivers must keep in their cars for emergencies. 

It quickly expanded to encompass a range of economic issues and policies of French President Emmanuel Macron that were seen as favoring the rich.

Macron responded last month with measures that included tax cuts for middle-class workers and plans to close France’s elite school for top civil servants, while defending his pro-business policies. 

Three lists of yellow vest candidates are running in a May 26 election for France’s representatives to the European Union parliament.
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VOA’s Russian Service contributed to this report.

WASHINGTON — U.S. President Donald Trump applauded Slovak Prime Minister Peter Pellegrini’s announcement that his country plans to increase its military spending to 2% of its GDP in the next three years, as well as purchase U.S.-made F-16 war planes.

A joint statement issued by the two leaders after their White House meeting Friday said the U.S. and Slovakia “seek to build on this and deepen our defense cooperation by concluding a mutually beneficial Defense Cooperation Agreement.”

Earlier, speculation about terms of a bilateral Defense Cooperation Agreement, or DCA, had stirred controversy in the Central European country. The Slovak foreign ministry described as lacking in knowledge and short on facts allegations that a defense cooperation agreement with the U.S. would lead to encroachment upon Slovakia’s sovereignty.

In contrast to protests heard in certain quarters in Slovakia, a number of nations in Central Europe have shown an eagerness to enter into defense cooperation agreements with the U.S.

Last month, a bilateral agreement was signed between the U.S. and Hungary on the sidelines of events marking the 70th anniversary of the founding of NATO, after more than a year and a half of negotiations.

In an interview with VOA, Laszlo Szabo, Hungary’s ambassador to the U.S., described the agreement as both strategic and tactical in nature and as one that sets the terms under which American forces and other foreign troops can operate in Hungary.

Meanwhile, the Czech Republic is negotiating an agreement that is “quite similar,” according to Hynek Kmonicek, the country’s chief diplomat in the U.S. Czechs regard the U.S. as the “backbone of NATO,” he told VOA, adding “if you ask people how they feel about [the] 2% of GDP spent [on military expenditures], it usually has 80% [popular] support, which is quite extraordinary.”

Among Central European countries, Poland is seen as the most enthusiastic when it comes to building ever-closer ties with the United States in military and security affairs.

Polish Foreign Minister Jacek Czaputowicz said in an interview with VOA’s Russian Service that Poland realizes relying on its own defense forces will not be sufficient when it comes to a security guarantee, even as the Polish government is working to strengthen its military forces, including increasing the number of soldiers. The minister said the “military presence of our allies on our soil is crucially important.”  

Not that Poland feels a direct military threat from Russia at the moment, said Czaputowicz, but from what Poland can see, Russia is prone to taking advantage of situations when it “senses a weakness; like in Donbas, like in Crimea,” referring to Russian attempts to annex territory in Ukraine. Poland, he said, plans to increase its defense spending to up to 2.5% of its GDP.  The relative absence of an imminent military threat that Poland currently feels, as Czaputowicz sees it, is precisely due to Russia’s calculation of both how the country itself and its allies will react.

As negotiations between the U.S. and Slovakia on a bilateral Defense Cooperation Agreement unfold, Rachel Ellehuus, a former Pentagon official and current deputy director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), cautions that the U.S. Congress has signaled that it will not allow funds from the European Deterrence Initiative to be spent in countries that have not signed a defense cooperation agreement with the U.S. She also points out that the guarantee of “assured access” by U.S. military to signatory countries’ facilities could be a sticking point with certain allies.

That said, Ellehuus describes bilateral Defense Cooperation Agreements as “pragmatic measures to enhance NATO deterrence and defense, while also ensuring needed protections for U.S. troops.

“Think of them as legal agreements that strengthen the provisions in the NATO SOFA,” she said, referring to Status of Forces Agreements among NATO member states.

From an operational angle, “mitigating Russia’s time-distance advantages” over the U.S. and allies, should conflict break out, is crucial to deterrence and defense, according to Billy Fabian, a Research Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment (CSBA).

 
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Britain’s governing Conservative Party said Saturday that it is ready to compromise to secure a Brexit deal after suffering its worst result in local elections for more than 20 years.

In contests for local authorities across England, the party lost about 1,300 seats, a quarter of its total, as voters punished the government for the U.K’s Brexit impasse. The opposition Labour Party also suffered losses as voters switched to smaller parties and independent candidates.

Almost three years after Britain voted to leave the European Union, the date and terms of Brexit remain uncertain following months of gridlock in Parliament.

Many Conservatives blame Prime Minister Theresa May for failing to deliver Brexit and want her to quit. This week’s electoral drubbing increased pressure on May, who was heckled at a Conservative event Friday by a party member shouting “Why don’t you resign? We don’t want you.”

Both the Conservatives and Labour said the message coming from voters was: Get on with Brexit.

The parties plan more meetings next week to try to agree on departure terms that could win the support of Parliament.

Talks so far have become stuck on divisions between the Conservatives and Labour over how close an economic relationship to seek with the EU after Brexit. Labour says the U.K. should remain in a customs union with the bloc to avoid barriers to trade. The government wants a looser relationship with the EU that would let Britain strike new trade deals around the world.

Environment Secretary Matt Hancock said he remained skeptical about a customs union, but the government needed “to be in the mood for compromise.”

“The mood of the nation is get on, deliver Brexit and then move on,” he told the BBC.

Others argue that the message coming from voters is more complex. The local elections saw a big surge for the anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats and the Greens, parties that support a new referendum with the option of remaining in the EU.

Labour lawmaker Lisa Nandy said both main parties had suffered because voters were “losing faith with the system as a whole.”

“People are really, really frustrated about Brexit, but the major frustration comes from the perceived inability of the two major parties — including Labour — to get our act together and start dealing with the very many and real problems people have got,” she said.

The Conservatives and Labour are bracing for worse results in May 23 elections for the European Parliament, where they face opposition from new forces on the political scene — the anti-EU Brexit Party and the pro-European Change UK.

 
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European and American investigators have broken up one of the world’s largest online criminal marketplaces for drugs, hacking tools and financial-theft wares in raids in the United States, Germany and Brazil.

Three German men, ages 31, 22 and 29, were arrested after the raids in three southern states on allegations they operated the so-called “Wall Street Market” darknet platform, which hosted about 5,400 sellers and more than 1 million customer accounts, Frankfurt prosecutor Georg Ungefuk told reporters in Wiesbaden on Friday.

A Brazilian man, the site’s alleged moderator, was also charged.

The three Germans, identified in U.S. court documents as Tibo Lousee, Jonathan Kalla and Klaus-Martin Frost, face drug charges in Germany on allegations they administrated the platform where cocaine, heroin and other drugs, as well as forged documents and other illegal material, were sold.

They have also been charged in the United States with conspiring to launder money and distribute illegal drugs, according to a criminal complaint filed in Los Angeles federal court.

“The charges filed in Germany and the United States will significantly disrupt the illegal sale of drugs on the darknet,” Assistant U.S. Attorney Ryan White told reporters in Germany. “We believe that Wall Street Market recently became the world’s largest darknet marketplace for contraband including narcotics, hacking tools, illegal services and stolen financial data.”

Two-year operation

Ungefuk said Wall Street Market was at least the second biggest, refusing to name others for fear of jeopardizing other investigations.

In the nearly two-year operation involving European police agency Europol and authorities in the Netherlands as well as the U.S. and Germany, investigators pinpointed the three men as administrators of the platform on the darknet. It is part of the internet often used by criminals that is hosted within an encrypted network and accessible only through anonymity-providing tools, such as the Tor browser.

Transactions were conducted using cryptocurrencies, and the suspects took commissions ranging from 2% to 6%, Ungefuk said.

The site trafficked documents such as identity papers and driver’s licenses. But an estimated 60% or more of the business was drug-related, he said.

​Caught during ‘exit scam’

Authorities swept in quickly after the platform was switched into a “maintenance mode” April 23, and the suspects allegedly began transferring funds used on the platform to themselves in a so-called “exit scam,” Ungefuk said.

The U.S. Department of Justice said the administrators took about $11 million in the exit scam from escrow and user accounts.

The U.S. identified a fourth defendant as Marcos Paulo De Oliveira-Annibale, 29, of Sao Paulo, Brazil. It was not clear if he had been arrested, and federal police in Brazil wouldn’t comment.

Annibale, who went by the moniker “MED3LIN” online, faces federal drug distribution and money laundering charges in the United States for allegedly acting as a moderator on the site in disputes between vendors and their customers. He also allegedly promoted Wall Street Market on prominent websites such as Reddit, the Justice Department said.

Brazilian authorities searched his home Thursday after investigators linked his online persona to pictures he posted of himself years ago, U.S. officials said.

Impact will be short-lived

A University of Manchester criminology researcher who follows activity on dark web markets, Patrick Shortis, said the takedown was widely anticipated after Annibale leaked his credentials and the market’s true internet address online.

Knocking out Wall Street Market is unlikely to have a lasting impact on online criminal markets, though law enforcement officials make it clear they are going after sellers and customers, Shortis said.

In Los Angeles, two drug suppliers were arrested, and authorities confiscated about $1 million cash, weapons and drugs in raids. They were only identified by their online monikers, “Platinum45” and “Ladyskywalker,” and characterized as “major drug traffickers” dealing methamphetamine and fentanyl.

Other darknet busts

After the first big takedown of such a marketplace, Silk Road in 2013, it took overall trade about four to five months to recuperate, Shortis said. And after law enforcement took out Hansa and AlphaBay in 2017, it took about a month, he said.

Shortis said one threat he does see to the market, in the short term at least, are so-called denial of service cyberattacks that effectively knock web servers offline by flooding them with traffic.

“An extortionist is currently targeting Empire and Nightmare, who are both in the running to replace Wall Street as the top market,” he said.

The raids in Germany culminated Thursday with the seizure of servers, while federal police confiscated 550,000 euros ($615,000) in cash, Bitcoin and Monero cryptocurrencies, hard drives, and other evidence in multiple raids.

Because of the clandestine nature of the operation and the difficulty of tracing cryptocurrencies, Ungefuk said it was difficult to assess the overall volume of business conducted by the darknet group. But he said that “we’re talking about profits in the millions at least.”
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Ruth Davidson, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, returns to politics on Saturday with a vow to resist any new referendum on independence from the United Kingdom.

The Conservatives in pro-EU Scotland have seen their poll support slip over their handling of Brexit, coinciding with Davidson’s six-month maternity leave, while support for the pro-independence Scottish National Party has risen.

On Friday the results of elections for seats on local councils in England, the biggest of the UK’s four nations, provided stark evidence of how the fallout from Britain’s 2016 vote to leave the European Union has undermined the two biggest parties, Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservatives and Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour.

Meanwhile, support for Scottish independence has risen to its highest point in the past four years, largely driven by voters who want to remain in the European Union, according to a YouGov poll published in the Times last week.

“I’ll make a firm guarantee now: If I am elected Scotland’s next first minister, there will be no more constitutional games and no more referenda. We’ve had enough to last a lifetime,” Davidson will tell delegates at the Scottish Conservative conference, according to advance comments.

Scotland, England’s political partner for more than 300 years and part of the United Kingdom, rejected independence by 10 percentage points in a 2014 referendum. But differences over Brexit have strained relations with the government in London.

Davidson’s straight-talking politics has made her a favorite of moderate Conservatives and given her high public approval ratings, while infighting has whittled away the authority of the prime minister and the standing of some of her rivals.

May addressed the conference in Aberdeen on Friday.

On returning to work this week after giving birth to baby Finn, Davidson, 40, again said she does not want to be prime minister but speculation continues to swirl — despite her currently not having a seat in the Westminster parliament but sitting as a member of Scotland’s devolved assembly.

In an interview with Scottish politics magazine Holyrood, she was characteristically candid about the impact of motherhood and the kind of changes it has meant to her life, describing the effects of “bone-crushing” sleep-deprivation.

She said she had put her job before family and friends in the past, but being a mother had changed her priorities. “I don’t think for one second (my job) will come before Finn.”

 
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Turkish prosecutors are carrying out 32 investigations into the narrow opposition victory last month in Istanbul’s mayoral election. The investigations come as the ruling AKP intensifies calls for another vote, amid fears of political and economic chaos.

Prosecutors are looking into 100 voting stations in three Istanbul districts, which the opposition CHP won.

CHP candidate Ekrem Imamoglu narrowly won the Istanbul vote, ending nearly 25 years of rule by the AKP and its Islamist predecessors. The result has been subject to numerous partial recounts, which reduced his margin of victory to around 14,000 votes.

The judicial probes have been seized upon by AKP, which is petitioning Turkey’s Supreme Election Board, or YSK, to repeat the election.

“Our appeal to the YSK is founded on the belief that there was an organized plot in the elections,” deputy AKP head Ali İhsan Yavuz told a news conference Thursday. “[Prosecutor] investigations have confirmed what we have claimed.”

The YSK is composed of mostly appointees by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The Turkish president on one occasion called for the result to be accepted and for the country to come together to face security and economic challenges.

MHP ‘outburst’

Erdogan’s junior coalition political partner in parliament, the MHP, is taking a more robust approach. MHP leader Devlet Bahceli, in a statement this week, demanded the vote be repeated, claiming the country’s security was at stake. 

“The outburst by MHP leader and Erdogan’s stalwart ally, Mr. Bahceli, is the new variable,” said analysts Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners. Yesilada says the variable “needs to be added to the witches’ brew of factors which will motivate Erdogan’s decision on how much pressure to apply on the YSK to rule against CHP Mayor-elect Mr. Imamoglu.”

With the AKP having lost control of most of Turkey’s most important cities in April’s local elections, Bahceli is increasingly challenging Erdogan.

“Bahceli openly demanded a repeat of Istanbul elections, adding that his party shall only recognize the YSK’s final verdict if it satisfies the conscience of the nation,” said Yesilada. “This sentence, too, implies that in case of HEC [High Election Council] ruling in favor of Imamoglu, MHP will end the coalition.”

Stung by Bahceli’s attack, Erdogan took a more robust stance Thursday, confidently predicting a win in any Istanbul revote.

Renewed CHP success

Erdogan’s widely perceived lack of enthusiasm for a new election, however, could be explained by an awareness that victory is far from assured.

“The AKP of the past, I don’t think it is anymore,” said international relations expert Soli Ozel of Istanbul’s Kadir Has University.

“I really don’t see anymore the mobilization and enthusiasm that distinguished AKP itself from other parties,” he added. “To the contrary, the CHP, which a lot of us left for dead or at least in a deep coma, found in itself sparks of life, if you will.”

Ozel says a vital part of the CHP’s success is Imamoglu, who successfully bridged the deep political polarization of Turkish politics by reaching out to AKP voters. Coupled with an economy in recession, near-record high unemployment, and food inflation at more than 30 percent, the AKP is seen as facing considerable electoral challenges.

In a possible sign of the magnitude of the challenge posed by any revote, the AKP’s defeated candidate, Binali Yildirim, appeared to rule himself out of the running in a new election.

Analysts point out that Erdogan is aware of the political damage of the Istanbul defeat. Probably the Turkish president’s most celebrated political asset is a reputation of electoral invincibility, carved out over 15 years of unbridled success. The loss of Turkey’s largest city has changed that perception.

Pressure on Erdogan

The political damage to Erdogan, should there be a second defeat in an Istanbul vote, would be considerable.

“There is a fair possibility he will lose the elections,” said political scientist Cengiz Akar. “But knowing him since 1994, he will do his utmost to win those elections. This is why we will have an extremely tense period between any [YSK] board decision to hold the elections and the date of the polls,” Akar added.

Analysts say international investors share those concerns with the Turkish lira under pressure. The currency has fallen more than 10 percent since the start of the year and could face further declines if investors run to the exits over a new Istanbul vote, amid fears of high political tension.

Turkey’s YSK could rule on a new ballot as early as next week. It would be a decision widely seen as one of the most important and far-reaching in recent times. 
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A senior Russian diplomat is confirming that Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will meet U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo meet next week in Finland at a time of simmering tensions between the two countries over the crisis in Venezuela.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was quoted as saying Friday by state news agency TASS that the meeting has been set up.

Reports say the pair will meet on the sidelines of the Arctic Council ministerial session on Monday and Tuesday in the city of Rovaniemi.

The unrest in Venezuela is likely to be a key point of discussion. The United States views President Nicolas Maduro’s re-election last year as illegitimate and has recognized opposition leader Juan Guaido as interim president. Russia is backing Maduro.

 
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WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange has begun what is expected to be a fierce and protracted fight against extradition to the United States, where he is wanted on charges of stealing and leaking sensitive U.S. government documents. Assange told a British court Thursday he does not wish to be extradited for “doing journalism that has won many awards and protected people.” VOA’s Zlatica Hoke reports.
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Britain’s Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt and Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel are conducting separate visits to Africa this week, the latest in a flurry of visits by European leaders and officials as Western states look to expand their engagement on issues like trade, migration and security.

Chancellor Merkel is visiting Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, and pledged more than $68 million to support police and security services. More than 1,000 German troops are deployed in West Africa as part of United Nations peacekeeping and European Union training missions to defeat Islamist terrorism.

“We from the European side have to become faster with our commitment,” Merkel told reporters after meeting Burkina Faso’s President Roch Marc Christian Kabore Wednesday.

Great Britain

Meanwhile Britain’s Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt is in the region to launch a new diplomatic push, announcing plans to open new embassies in Niger and Chad and investing $5.2 million in English language teaching.

“The economic opportunities we see right now in Africa are tremendous, with enormous potential to grow. We must not see African nations as recipients of our charity, but rather as partners and destinations for our investment and trade,” Hunt told an audience in Ghana earlier this week.

Much of the region is Francophone with close historical links to the former colonial power. But Paul Melly, with the London-based policy institute Chatham House, says Britain is not trying to muscle in.

“I think the one thing it’s not is an attempt to outcompete France. All European countries are aware that they need to develop links with a continent that is fast-growing in economic terms, in population terms. And it has a major impact in terms of issues such as migration,” Melly told VOA.

​France

French President Emmanuel Macron signed investment deals worth $2.2 billion with Kenya during a March visit to East Africa, a region with closer historical links to Britain.

Melly says London is looking to export its financial services skills after it leaves the European Union and tries to carve a new role in the global economy.

“Those skills are things actually that rather tend to compliment the things that other European players are doing.”

China is Africa’s biggest trade partner and investor in infrastructure financing. But there is a growing wariness.

“Very often, China will make a contribution in terms of funding big infrastructure things that some other partners feel cautious about doing. But often, this is on soft loan terms, which down the line produces a heavy debt obligation,” Melly says.

​United States

American companies are the biggest source of foreign direct investment in Africa, and the U.S. government is the continent’s biggest aid donor. White House senior adviser Ivanka Trump visited Ethiopia and the Ivory Coast last month as part of a project to provide support to 50 million women in developing countries by 2025.

“We believe that investing in women is smart development policy, and it is smart business. It is also in our security interest. Because women, when they are empowered, foster peace and stability,” Trump told reporters during the trip.

Analysts say the race to build economic and diplomatic clout on the continent is gathering pace.
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